Monday, December 16, 2019

Geopolitical Monitor: Arms Sales in Africa: A Buyer’s Market

"Arms Sales in Africa: A Buyer’s Market"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez and Scott Morgan
Geopolitical Monitor
Opinion
December 16, 2019
Originally published: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/arms-sales-in-africa-a-buyers-market/

 
The Russian city of Sochi hosted the first ever Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum in late October. One important development of this high-profile meeting was that Russian defense companies declared their interest in expanding their footprint throughout Africa by increasing weapons sales.

This is an important issue that deserves more analysis since, given the numerous and complex armed conflicts throughout Africa, a plethora of extra-continental actors, be them governments or defense industries, are continuously attempting to obtain new contracts with African states. Without a doubt, Africa is very much open for business when it comes to weapons transfers, and the world as a whole is looking to profit.


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Saturday, December 14, 2019

Journal: " How are we getting there? The present and future of South America’s Antarctic fleet"


"How are we getting there? The present and future of South America’s Antarctic fleet"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
The Polar Journal
December, 2019
Originally published: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2154896X.2019.1685177


Please contact me if you would like a copy of this essay.


 
While South America is geographically close to Antarctica, more so than some countries that claim Antarctic territory, it is nevertheless important to maintain modern and operational platforms, particularly vessels, via which South American states can travel to this region. In recent years, Peru has obtained a new polar vessel, while Chile is domestically manufacturing a new icebreaker and Brazil is looking to purchase a new polar ship. Nevertheless, countries like Argentina and Uruguay, due to limited funds, do not appear to have plans to acquire new polar vessels to replace their current, ageing naval platforms.

Certainly, governments can also utilise aircraft to transport personnel and equipment to Antarctica as well as to carry out some scientific tests and search-and-rescue operations. However there are particular advantages to possessing a vessel in the inventory of any country’s Antarctic program, since it can transport heavy equipment, and perform subsurface tests out at sea. Polar vessels also carry smaller craft and a helicopter, which multiplies the ship’s capabilities. This essay aims to discuss the current operational status of South America’s polar platforms, with a specific focus on ships, and what are their future. We will analyse the region’s ships and compare them to other nations that have Antarctic programmes (e.g. Australia, the People’s Republic of China and the United States), in order to have an idea of how South American states are doing in comparison to other programs. As we look at South America’s present and attempt to predict the region’s future in Antarctica, we will discuss issues like cooperation amongst South American Antarctic programs, and the future of regionally manufactured naval platforms for polar use.

Providence: How Can the US Help Taiwan in the Western Hemisphere?


"How Can the US Help Taiwan in the Western Hemisphere?"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Providence
October 22, 2019
Originally Published: https://providencemag.com/2019/10/how-can-us-help-taiwan-western-hemisphere/

The government of the Solomon Islands has decided to switch its diplomatic relations from the Republic of China (Taiwan) to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This announcement occurred almost parallel to the US government’s decision to provide a major package of military technology, namely “66 F-16C/D Block 70 aircraft and related equipment and support for an estimated cost of $8 billion,” to the Asian nation.

Thus, while Washington continues to support Taipei, it has been unable to prevent some governments from establishing relations with Beijing. Many of the nations that maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan are located in Latin America and the Caribbean, two regions where the US has plenty of allies and partners; hence, as we discuss Taipei’s future in the Western Hemisphere, we must discuss what Washington can (realistically) do to help its ally.

 

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Providence: South America’s Protests: Why Blame Yourself When You Can Blame Someone Else?


"South America’s Protests: Why Blame Yourself When You Can Blame Someone Else?"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Providence
November 20, 2019
Originally published: https://providencemag.com/2019/11/south-americas-protests-why-blame-yourself-when-you-can-blame-someone-else/


Three South American countries—Bolivia, Chile, and Ecuador—have experienced massive protests in the past couple of months. Discontent against the powers-that-be originated for different reasons, including anger over subsidy cuts, costlier living expenses, disrespect for indigenous rights, and one head of state’s attempt to remain in power.


In all three countries, their respective governments have blamed external actors for the violence. While a case can be made for this possibility, blaming “others” is also a sign that these presidents (or the former president, in the case of Bolivia) did not want to admit their own faults and shortcomings.



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Providence: Guyana Matters to China, So It Should Matter to the US


"Guyana Matters to China, So It Should Matter to the US"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Providence
November 18, 2019
Originally published: https://providencemag.com/2019/11/guyana-china-us/

 During President David Granger’s salute to the People Republic of China’s (PRC) seventieth anniversary, the Guyanese leader labeled Beijing as a “reliable partner.” Indeed, the small Caribbean state and the Asian giant have a long history since bilateral relations were established in June 1972, a history that is centered on Beijing’s interest in Guyana’s natural resources and geographic location. 

The attention of the international media will (temporarily) focus on Guyana as President Granger has finally announced general elections for March 2, 2020, following domestic and international pressure after he lost a no-confidence vote in 2018. The upcoming elections, Beijing-Georgetown relations, and Venezuela’s own claims to Guyanese territory should make Guyana a bigger priority for Washington.
  

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IPD: Brazil’s Other Green Revolution: Cannabis for Medicinal Use

"Brazil’s Other Green Revolution: Cannabis for Medicinal Use"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
International Policy Digest
December 14, 2019
Originally published: https://intpolicydigest.org/2019/12/14/brazil-s-other-green-revolution-cannabis-for-medicinal-use/


There are big developments taking place in Brazil, as the country’s National Sanitary Surveillance Agency (Agencia Nacional de Vigilancia Sanitaria: ANVISA) approved in early December a product registration fast-track that will allow the importation, and sale of medical cannabis in pharmacies while, at the same time prohibiting domestic cultivation.

Cannabis for medicinal purposes is a growing global industry. In fact, governments that have strong no-drugs policies make exceptions for medical cannabis. After all, cannabinoids, the substance derived from the plant, have been proven to be very helpful to assist patients who suffer from chronic pains, in addition to neurological and psychiatric diseases. The recent changes in legislation in Brazil will significantly change the CBD market and health system in the South American nation.




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Wednesday, October 16, 2019

DefenceIQ: A Bright Future for the Signature Management Industry



"A Bright Future for the Signature Management Industry"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Land Force
Defence IQ
October 15, 2019
Originally published: https://www.defenceiq.com/army-land-forces/articles/a-bright-future-for-the-signature-management-industry 


Fibrotex USA, a subsidiary of the Israeli company Fibrotex Technologies, opened a vertical camouflage manufacturing facility in Stearns, Kentucky, on August 29. This new plant should be placed in a wider discussion about the evolution of signature management systems and industry worldwide.
 

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Geopolitcal Monitor: Kazakhstan: Tokayev Shows His Hand on Domestic, Foreign Policy


"Kazakhstan: Tokayev Shows His Hand on Domestic, Foreign Policy"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Opinion
Geopolitical Monitor

October 16, 2019
Originally published: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/kazakhstan-tokayev-shows-his-hand-on-domestic-foreign-policy/



Two key speeches given in September by Kazakhstan President  Kasym-Jomart Tokayev provide a fairly good idea of what his foreign and domestic objectives will be: the Central Asian head of state addressed the 74th Session of the General Assembly of the United Nations on September 24, only a couple of weeks after he delivered his first State of the Nation Address on September 2.

Moreover, both speeches were momentous occasions, as it is the first time since the country’s independence in 1991 that Kazakhstan has not been ruled by someone with the last name ‘Nazarbayev.’


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The views expressed in this article are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com or any institutions with which the authors are associated.

Saturday, October 12, 2019

Providence: As China Increases its Presence in the Western Hemisphere, Where is US Leadership?




"As China Increases its Presence in the Western Hemisphere, Where is US Leadership?"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Providence
September 24, 2019

Originally published: https://providencemag.com/2019/09/china-western-us-leadership/

General Wei Fenghe, minister of defense of the People’s Republic of China, met with his Brazilian counterpart on September 6, less than two months after the Asian nation’s minister of foreign affairs, Wang Yi, also visited the country. These high-level meetings occur parallel to other major investment agreements, like a port in Peru that will be constructed by a Chinese company.


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W. Alejandro Sanchez is a researcher who focuses on geopolitical, military, and cyber security issues in the Western Hemisphere

Geopolitical Monitor: Moldova-European Union Relations: Has the Eastern Partnership helped Moldovans?

"Moldova-European Union Relations: Has the Eastern Partnership helped Moldovans?"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez & Lucia Scripcari
Situation Reports
Geopolitical Monitor
October 11, 2019
Originally published: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/moldova-european-union-relations-has-the-eastern-partnership-helped-moldovans/


Since coming to power in June, the prime minister of the Republic of Moldova (RM), Maia Sandu, has reassured Western governments and institutions that Moldova remains committed to its objectives of improving the country’s domestic situation and increasing European integration. These goals were reiterated during a September 19 speech at the International Republican Institute in Washington DC. PM Sandu’s trip to the US capital occurred not long after a late-July visit to Brussels, where she signed three agreements with the European Union (EU) via which the Southeastern European nation will receive USD45 million in aid.


 
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez is an analyst who focuses on geopolitical, military, and cybersecurity issues. Follow him on Twitter: @W_Alex_Sanchez.

Lucia Scripcari is a Moldovan citizen and a LLM student at Koç University (Istanbul).

The views expressed in this article are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com or any institutions with which the authors are associated.

Sunday, September 15, 2019

FPIF: The View from Syria’s Peace Talks

"The View from Syria’s Peace Talks"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez.
Foreign Policy in Focus
September 13, 2019
Originally published: https://fpif.org/the-view-from-syrias-peace-talks/

 

Eight years since its inception in 2011, the Syrian civil war rages on, a conflict that has taken on grand geopolitical dimensions and resulted in tens of thousands killed and a massive exodus of refugees. While other tensions and conflicts around the world have since grabbed the attention of major media outlets, the situation in Syria has not gotten any better. If anything, it has become even more complicated and violent.



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Saturday, September 7, 2019

IPD: The Future of the Medicinal Cannabis Industry: A View from the Western Hemisphere



"The Future of the Medicinal Cannabis Industry: A View from the Western Hemisphere"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
International Policy Digest
September 6, 2019
Originally published: https://intpolicydigest.org/2019/09/06/the-future-of-the-medicinal-cannabis-industry-a-view-from-the-western-hemisphere/



Former NFL player Rob Gronkowski announced on August 27 that he will focus on his campaign to allow professional sports leagues, like the National Football League (NFL), to relax their restrictions on the use of cannabidiol (CBD) for pain relief. This continues the momentum started in 2018 when the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) removed CBD from its list of prohibited substances.

The legalization of marijuana and its derivatives, like CBD, is a complex issue as several countries around the world have, to differing degrees, legalized it, including Brazil, The Netherlands, Uruguay, in addition to various states throughout the United States. Medicinal CBD is a particularly interesting and growing industry.


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Thursday, August 22, 2019

Providence: US-Moldova Relations after June 2019


"US-Moldova Relations after June 2019"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez & Lucia Scripcari

Providence Magazine
20 August, 2019
Originally published: https://providencemag.com/2019/08/us-moldova-relations-after-june-2019/

The Republic of Moldova is entering a new era after the events of June 2019, with the rise to power of Prime Minister Maia Sandu, the first woman to ever hold this position, and an agreement of sorts between Washington and Moscow to support the political changes that have been taking place within the landlocked southeastern European state over the last two months. 

This is the ideal time to strengthen Washington-Chisinau relations, as the small European country attempts to become a reliable and stable partner for both the US and Europe.



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Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Providence: US-Brazil Relations and Concerns over Nepotism in Brasilia


"US-Brazil Relations and Concerns over Nepotism in Brasilia"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Providence Magazine
9 August 2019
Originally published:  https://providencemag.com/2019/08/us-brazil-relations-and-concerns-over-nepotism-in-brasilia/



President Donald Trump has stated that he supports a US-Brazil trade agreement, particularly if the Brazilian government lowers trade barriers between the two countries. The US president’s remarks, made at the White House on July 30, occur parallel to Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s decision to nominate his son, congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, to become the next ambassador of Brazil to the US.

This move has triggered concerns about nepotism in the South American nation at a key moment for Washington-Brasilia relations.



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Thursday, July 18, 2019

IPD: After the Elections, Here are Kazakhstani President Tokayev’s Priorities

"After the Elections, Here are Kazakhstani President Tokayev’s Priorities

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
International Policy Digest
July 15, 2019
Originally published: https://intpolicydigest.org/2019/07/15/after-the-elections-here-are-kazakhstani-president-tokayev-s-priorities/


In a late June interview, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev stated that “I never forget that I am the president of this country.” The June 9 elections in Kazakhstan, where he obtained 70% of the vote, are now ancient history and the new president of the Central Asian nation is looking forward, and given recent tragic developments, that is where his focus should be.



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Providence:Kazakhstan’s June 9 Elections and the Future of Tolerance and Diversity


"Kazakhstan’s June 9 Elections and the Future of Tolerance and Diversity"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Providence
18 July, 2019 Originally published: https://providencemag.com/2019/07/kazakhstan-june-9-elections-future-tolerance-diversity/

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev won Kazakhstan’s June 9 elections with 70 percent of the vote, while his closest challenger, Amirzhan Kosanov, obtained around 16 percent. With the Central Asian nation’s transition of power now complete, policymakers in the capital Nur-Sultan can focus on improving the lives of 18 million Kazakhstanis. Part of their work is maintaining respect and tolerance toward the country’s minorities and religious diversity.

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Friday, June 28, 2019

IPD: Africa: Arms Sales, Global Geopolitics and Security Threats

"Africa: Arms Sales, Global Geopolitics and Security Threats"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez and Scott Morgan
International Policy Digest
June 28, 2019
Originally published: https://intpolicydigest.org/2019/06/28/africa-arms-sales-global-geopolitics-and-security-threats/


There is plenty going on in Africa these days, such as regime change and repression in Sudan; violence and internal instability in Ethiopia; a deadly outbreak of Ebola across the Democratic Republic of Congo and beyond; never-ending violence in Somalia, just to name a few.

In this commentary, we will discuss some important developments that should be monitored more closely, particularly regarding weapons transfers and the Sahel region.

Africa’s major weapons importers
According to the most recent data provided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), between 2009-13 and 2014-18, there was a decline in arms sales to Africa by a total of 6.5%. States in sub-Saharan Africa received 25% of the total arms shipments in the aforementioned timeframes, with the top five importers being Nigeria, Angola, Sudan, Cameroon, and Senegal. Data from the Small Arms Survey shows that in 2015 other countries that received major arms shipments include Cote d’Ivoire, Malawi, Namibia, and Uganda.

Weapons sales do not occur in a vacuum, hence it is necessary to take into account the security situation of these countries. For example, two countries (Nigeria and Cameroon) are facing insurgencies, one (Sudan) has just recently had a long-entrenched leader removed by a military faction, and a fourth (Angola) borders a country in perpetual crisis (the Democratic Republic of the Congo). Hence, we can expect these governments to increase the procurement of weaponry in the coming years in order to face ongoing security threats.


Sunday, June 23, 2019

Defence IQ: Moldova-US relations and the National Guard’s State Partnership Programme


"Moldova-US relations and the National Guard’s State Partnership Programme"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Defence IQ
June 19, 2019
Originally published: https://www.defenceiq.com/army-land-forces/articles/moldova-us-relations-and-defence-industry-opportunities


The Importance of the National Guard State Partnership Programme

“It’s a great programme. Both sides get a lot out of it, and to the degree that we can expand it, I think it makes sense to do so,” said Dr. Mark T. Esper, Secretary of the Army, after I asked about the National Guard’s State Partnership Programme at the Atlantic Council, in Washington DC, in mid-May.

The partnership programme teams up a state’s national guard with a US partner international partner, such as the Republic of Moldova and the North Carolina National Guard.

The US is Moldova’s major defence partner, and the Chisinau-North Carolina relationship has become the cornerstone of this evolving partnership.


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Saturday, May 11, 2019

Asian Affairs: "Shift To The Centre"

"Shift To The Centre"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Asian Affairs
May 2, 2019
Originally published: https://www.asianaffairs.in/magazine/shift-to-the-centre/#.XNbFskN7mfZ


A Central Asian giant larger than Western Europe, Kazakhstan is friendly with all its neighbours, especially Russia and China. Yet it is keen to further expand its influence throughout Asia, which, Wilder Alejandro Sanchez believes, could be good news for India
India and Kazakhstan – the third and fourth biggest nations in Asia respectively –have seen their diplomatic ties increase in significance this century.Now, should both governments decide that this relationship deserves to be a priority, the two countries have much to gain from each other on other levels too.

Kazakhstan will hold a presidential election in June but there is little doubt in my mind as to who will win. I believe that Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will continue in his role as leader. His predecessor, the former first secretary of the Communist Party, Nursultan Nazarbayev, was re-elected in 2015 with 98 per cent of the vote. He resigned last month, endorsing Mr Tokayev to take over. Voters are likely to support political continuity and elections in Kazakhstan are far less hotly fought than those in India.

Meeting Modi

Assuming he wins the vote in June, Mr Tokayev could meet India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi soon afterwards, if the two leaders participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek.

Trade between India and Kazakhstan reached USD$1.2 billion in 2018, a new record for the two nations. Indeed, Kazakhstan is India’s major trading partner in Central Asia and the two governments have enjoyed cordial relations in terms of diplomacy, defence (including joint peacekeeping operations), trade and people-to-people interactions since the Central Asian nation gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

India’s exports to Kazakhstan include coffee, tobacco and rubber, while Kazakhstan’s exports to India are mostly uranium, oil and steel.
Both governments have maintained a pro-trade policy and Kazakh Invest – a company that was founded to promote sustainable socio-economic development in Kazakhstan by inviting foreign investment in priority sectors– helped to organise a forum in Kolkata in early April to attract Eastern Indian investment.
Trade between the two countries could grow even more in the coming years, should India and the Eurasian Economic Union – of which Kazakhstan is a member – sign a free trade agreement.



Wilder Alejandro Sanchez is an analyst who focuses on geopolitical, military and cyber security issues

IPD: Kazakhstan: New President, New Diversified-Economy?

"Kazakhstan: New President, New Diversified-Economy?"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
International Policy Digest
May 11, 2019
Originally published: https://intpolicydigest.org/2019/05/11/kazakhstan-new-president-new-diversified-economy/


President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is expected to emerge victorious in Kazakhstan’s upcoming elections on June 9, after the former long-time president, Nursultan Nazarbayev openly endorsed him on April 23. With the next president of the Central Asian country clear, the government can now focus on addressing the country’s priorities and challenges, which includes the continuous expansion and development of its economy, for the benefit of Kazakhstani citizens.

While Kazakhstan has made strides to diversify its economy, raw materials (such as uranium) continue to be the cornerstone of its economy. This diversification strategy will likely continue under the next administration, and it should be pursued even more aggressively.

Diversifying the Economy
When we talk about Kazakhstani exports to the world, uranium comes to mind. After all the Central Asian country is the world’s largest producer of this heavy metal. Kazakhstan also exports various raw materials, such as copper, gold, oil and natural gas. According to WorldTopExports.com, around 70% of exports in 2018 were mineral fuels, like oil, followed by iron, steel, and copper. Non-fuel or mineral exports, such as cereals, constituted barely 2% (other sources provide similar statistics.) For a country that wants to be one of the top 30 most developed nations by 2050, this one-sided economy is problematic.

To remedy this, in recent years Nursultan has pushed to diversify the country’s economy by developing other industries and also partially via the partial privatization some state-owned companies such as Kazatomprom. “If Kazatomprom becomes a public company, it will be only the second major uranium miner in the world, after Canada’s Cameco, to obtain such a status,” noted the Jamestown Foundation back in November 2018. Other companies that will become privatized are Samruk Kazyna, KazMunaiGas, and Kazaktelecom.
The government is also focusing on expanding industries like livestock, crop, and grain production. For example, The South Korean company, K2AT, will reportedly produce organic fertilizers and carry out smart-farming projects in the Aral Sea – this package of deals was announced as part of the Kazakh-Korea Investment Summit on April 22.

Similarly, Kazakhstan will reportedly open “three new vehicle assembling plants jointly with Hyundai, KAMAZ, and Kirovets as part of its plan to double domestic production of automobiles to meet demand within the Eurasian Economic Union,” the Caspian Sea Center reports. This is supported by Minister of Economy Ruslan Dalenov, who reported in mid-April that “in the January-March period, gross domestic product growth increased to 3.8 percent. In the January-February period, it was 3.5 percent. Accelerated growth has been achieved by increased output in the manufacturing industry, as well as by increased growth in construction and investment.”

Certainly, Kazakhstan could continue to rely on its uranium industry, as the IPO of Kazatomprom has brought about renewed interest of international investors in this sector, and nuclear reactors still use uranium for energy production – India is apparently interested in acquiring more Kazakhstani uranium. Similarly, “Russia’s oil major Lukoil and Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas have set up a joint venture to conduct exploration at the Zhenis block in the Caspian Sea,” explained the Washington DC-based Caspian Center in a March 19 newsletter, mentioning a statement by Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Kanat Bozumbayev. However, these two industries are not enough to improve the lives of 18 million Kazakhstani citizens, particularly as not all of them work in these sectors.

Attracting Investment and Extra-Regional Trade
Kazakhstan’s major trading partners are Russia ($18 billion in 2018) and China (around $11 billion last year), and while no regional or extra-regional nation can realistically compete with those numbers, Nursultan has striven to diversify its pool of partners and investors. To this end, the Central Asian state has created entities like the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), which was launched last year, and Kazakh Invest to bring foreign investment into the country and to make Kazakhstan the financial hub of Central Asia.

The country has been successful in attracting more extra-regional trade, as trade with India reached $1.2 billion in 2018. In early April, a Kazakhstani delegation visited New Delhi to attract the interest of Indian businesses to the AIFC. “We need to make sure that AIFC is well-connected to other financial centres, including Dubai, Frankfurt, Mumbai, Singapore, and Shanghai…It will be very profitable for India and should be part of our long-term strategy,” said Kazakhstani political scientist Sultan Akimbekov to The Wire -India, in an interview about the visit. The AIFC also recently appointed Sheikh Bilal Khan as the Chief Islamic Finance Officer in order to further attract Islamic markers. Similarly, the Cyprus-based precious metals mining group, Polymetal, has become the first foreign issuer to list on the AIFC’s Astana International Exchange, according to an AIFC press release on April 17.

As for other extra-regional trade partners, South Korean President Moon Jae-in met on 22 April as part of the Asian head of state’s Central Asia tour. The two governments have enjoyed cordial relations and trade reached “$3.9 billion in 2018, including $2.9 billion in exports and $922 million in imports.” South Korean companies like Hyundai, LG, Samsung, Lotte Confectionery, SK, Highvill already operate in the Central Asian nation.

Discussion
Back in 2014, a report by Ernst & Young, titled “Kazakhstan 2014: The Brand Paves The Way,” explained that: “This survey reveals that Kazakhstan’s ‘brand perception’ is at its strongest compared with previous years. Investor awareness, among both established and non-established investors, has increased.” The report went on to explain that “Investor confidence in Kazakhstan’s future prospects is also high — 47.3% of our respondents believe that the country’s attractiveness will improve in the next three years.” Nevertheless, “over 50% of the investors surveyed still do not have any immediate plans to invest in the country. And the plans of investors already established in Kazakhstan vary significantly from those not yet established.”
This is a good summary of Kazakhstan’s financial situation nowadays. Generally speaking, the country is doing quite well and has a generally positive relationship with foreign markets. Hence, it is no surprise that Kazakhstan joined the WTO in 2015 and the OECD Declaration on International Investment and Multinational Enterprises in 2017.

However, the country has yet to move away from its oil and mineral-focused economy. Moreover, the US State Department mentions how foreign investors would like to see “improved transport and logistics infrastructure, a more open and flexible trade policy, and a more favorable work-permit regime.” Hopefully, the AIFC and Kazakh Invest will be successful in addressing some of these concerns so that investors receive the necessary guarantees, such as full protection of rights and interests, in order to continue investing in the Central Asian state.

Similarly, according to MENAFN, “in 2018 FDI amounted to 14.2 percent (12.9 percent in 2017) instead of targeted 16.5. In 2022 FDI is to reach 19 percent of GDP.” This data suggests that there is still a strong interest by external investors in the Central Asian state, but much needs to be done still to increase investment even more. The aforementioned agencies, plans for the partial privatization of some key state-owned industries and a new president will hopefully renew investor interest.

Final Thoughts
With former President Nazarbayev backing him, it is all but certain that President Tokayev will remain in power after June 9. Tokayev is no stranger to foreign policy as he served as minister of foreign affairs for around a decade, but now he will have all of Kazakhstan’s affairs, domestic and external, to deal with. It is generally expected that Tokayev will follow his predecessor’s foreign policy, hence Nursultan will continue to focus on attracting foreign investors and diversify its pool of partners as well as a list of exports.

Kazakhstan’s economy is globally known as a producer of oil and uranium, but the country’s other industries must continue to expand in order to achieve the government’s ambitious agenda and objectives. The new president of Kazakhstan will hopefully bring with him a more diverse economy for the 2020s.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect those of any institutions with which the author is associated.

Thursday, May 9, 2019

Providence: The Confusing Rhetoric out of Washington on Venezuela


"The Confusing Rhetoric out of Washington on Venezuela"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Providence
8 May, 2019
Originally published: https://providencemag.com/2019/05/confusing-rhetoric-washington-venezuela/
 

While discussing the situation in Venezuela, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently stated that “military action is possible.” The remarks came after a new round of violence and an apparently failed uprising against the regime of de facto President Nicolás Maduro.

At this point, it is necessary to discuss the rhetoric utilized by the White House and US Congress regarding Venezuela, compared to how senior US military commanders discuss the situation and the possibility of US military action in the South American country.

Pro-Intervention: Pompeo and Scott
The White House has generally maintained a fiery rhetoric regarding Venezuela. For example, on May 1 on Fox Business Maria Bartiromo asked Pompeo, “Is the US support going to include troops? Are the military troops in the US going to head there and support Guaidó?” He responded:

The president has been crystal clear and incredibly consistent. Military action is possible. If that’s what’s required, that’s what the United States will do. We’re trying to do everything we can to avoid violence. We’ve asked all the parties involved not to engage in that kind of activity

The phrase “military action is possible,” has been widely quoted.

Secretary Pompeo is hardly the only individual that has made such provocative remarks, as Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) made a similar statement at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC. During his April 11 speech, he stated that the Maduro regime “represents a clear and present danger to the entire Western Hemisphere,” hence “all options, including the use of American military assets, must remain on the table.” Moreover, given the humanitarian crisis in the South American country, “it is becoming clear that we will have to consider the use of American military assets to deliver aid.”



Wilder Alejandro Sanchez is an analyst who focuses on geopolitical, military and cybersecurity issues.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect those of any institutions with which the author is associated.

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Defence iQ: How will drones affect infantry tactics?


"How will drones affect infantry tactics?"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Defence iQ
14 March, 2019
Originally published: https://www.defenceiq.com/defence-technology/articles/how-will-drones-affect-infantry-tactics


With unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology developing rapidly, military leaders, analysts as well as defence industries around the world are coming up with new methods to both utilize them and combat them in the field

Indeed, UAV technology presents plenty of beneficial opportunities, but it is important that drones remain-value adding, and efforts are made not to increase the cognitive and physical burden on infantry that will have to carry them, use, and retrieve after a mission.

The US Military Goes Shopping

The US Army has ambitious plans regarding infantry use of drones. For example, in 2018 the US Army awarded a $2.6 million contract to FLIR Systems Inc. of Wilsonville, Oregon, for an undisclosed number of “Black Hornet Personal Reconnaissance System — a miniature helicopter with video cameras [which] enables infantry squads to see enemy units from the air.” The platform weighs about the same as a parakeet, and it can “can shoot live video with either a daylight imager or infrared, has a range of a little less than a mile and can fly for 25 minutes at a speed of 13 mph.” The contract is part of the Soldier Borne Sensor program.

 

Other companies are manufacturing light drones as well. For example, InstantEye Robotics reported in November 2018 that it had “secured a contract with the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) in support of PMA-263, the Navy and Marine Corps Small Tactical Unmanned Aircraft Systems (SUAS) Program Office, to field 32 InstantEye Mk-3 GEN5-D1 SUAS systems (64 aircraft).” Like the Black Hornet, InstantEye Robotics’ SUAS systems are light, for instance, the one sold to the US Marines has a weight of around 250 grams.

Counter drone systems 

Just as companies are developing lighter and more efficient drones, other companies are developing products to disable them. For example, IXI EW has developed the Drone Killer, which is available either as a rifle or as a system that can be attached to a rifle. Similarly, the Israeli company Smart Shooter has manufactured a fire control system called SMASH 2000 Plus that has a “drone mode.”

RECOMMENDED: The future of drone and counter-drone technology
Military and civilian agencies are trying to figure out how drones will affect the way infantry units operate. The advantages they provide, as well as the threat of enemy drone platforms, are still debated at the squad and battalion level. 
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and other agencies published a joint report, titled Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System (CUAS) Capability for Battalion-and-Below Operations, in 2018, which has been widely read and quoted as it discusses precisely this issue. The report touches on issues including how to counter enemy drones, like for example jamming radio frequencies. (One problem is that new drones “can operate without radio frequency command-and-control links by using automated target recognition and tracking, obstacle avoidance, and other capabilities enabled by software.”)

Discussion: The infantryman and UAVs

There are several issues to keep in mind when discussing how UAVs (nano, or small) will fit within the US Army. Let's consider how this will affect a standard infantry squad of 9-14 members.

One obvious issue is weight. If a light infantry unit wants to bring such capabilities to the fight then troops must allocate space and weight to this kit. This will require additional manpower to carry the apparatus, no matter how light it is, which prompts an important question: if a soldier has to carry a  UAV kit (the platform itself, a control system, power supply and so on) then what part of a kit will a soldier leave behind? This is a difficult call for commanders given the various risk mitigation strategies required for successful operations.

The extra weight may impede on the ability to carry our traditional force activities. If we accept the average rifleman will carry around 100lbs of equipment including a rifle, backpack with ammo, rations, water, and body armour. The idea of adding more weight to will not be appealing, particularly for operations that can last multiple days. This is one of the core reasons propelling industry to focus on making drones lighter and smaller.

On the other side of the spectrum, how will forces deal with adversarial drones? There have already been several analyses on this issue, see for example “On Drones and Tactics: How Unmanned Platforms Will Change the Way the Infantry Fights,” by 1st Lt. Walker Mills for the Modern War Institute.
Even more, there have already been incidents in which unnamed aerial vehicles were utilized by insurgents and foreign combatants to strike at US and Coalition forces, and also for the purpose of testing their reactions to these probes.

As for anti-drone technologies, currently, they vary from weapon-sized devices, which means carrying an extra rifle (e.g. the full-sized version of the Drone Killer), to a smaller system that is attached to a standard rifle such as an M4 (like the Smash 2000 Plus). The question again comes back to the issue of weight.
 

What is worth taking into the field? Can the capability to neutralize enemy drones be accomplished through traditional methods or is anti-drone gear absolutely necessary for combating these devices? Lastly, as a US Army service person with combat experiences explained to the author, “will we even be aware of these devices prior to being engaged, and are they employed in such numbers that we still find it necessary to carry this gear to fend off secondary attacks?”

Moreover, there is the question of how will UAV and anti-UAV technology affect the composition of infantry squads themselves. Will there be a sole “droneman” that carries the unit’s UAVs, as well as anti-UAV gear like a Drone Killer rifle or Smash Plus system? It will be interesting to monitor whether the US Army revisits the composition of an infantry squad in itself to adapt to this new technology.

The US Marine Corps is reportedly testing new squad compositions. “The sizes being considered were 11-, 12-, or 14-man arrangements, and some considered having the squad systems operator carry the M4 carbine to reduce the load, as it is a smaller, lighter weapon,” explained a December 2018 article in the Marine Corps Times, for example.

Lastly, squad leaders will have to decide whether UAVs and anti-UAV technology adds value, especially when considering changes in unit dynamics and the additional burden on the supply chain and logistical tail. The cost of replacing and maintaining these assets may be very high. However, that opens the doors for other up and coming solutions such as additive manufacturing and 3D printing.  

The proliferation of this technology is also something to consider. If these assets become more numerous, the likelihood of them getting lost account or captured is high. What data will be aboard these systems and will how can it be leveraged by adversaries? 

Final Thoughts

Recent analyses are increasingly focusing on understanding how this technology will affect the infantry, as small drones and nano-drones are beginning to be integrated into units. Indeed, the era of UAV military technology is in full swing and we are just beginning to grasp how it will affect the future of warfare, especially in the areas of logistics, medical evacuation, reconnaissance, and offensive support. Under the right condition set, there is no question that small UAVs can be employed to suppress and disrupt small enemy units. 

About the Authors:
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez is an analyst who focuses on geopolitical, military and cybersecurity issues.
The views expressed in this article are those of the authors alone and do not reflect those of any institutions with which the author are associated.
The author would like to thank the US military personnel interviewed for this analysis and who wish to remain anonymous.

International Policy Digest: The AIFC’s International Arbitration Centre: Objectives and Reality


"The AIFC’s International Arbitration Centre: Objectives and Reality"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez and Lucia Scripcari
International Policy Digest
17 March, 2019
Originally published: https://intpolicydigest.org/2019/03/17/the-aifc-s-international-arbitration-centre-objectives-and-reality/


The Astana International Exchange (AIX), an entity within the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), held its first trading session in mid-November, a memorable occasion which included the partial privatization of the state-owned Kazatomprom, the world’s biggest producer of uranium. Similarly, there is another AIFC entity which should be monitored closely for what it could accomplish in the coming years regarding commercial arbitration in Kazakhstan and the rest of Central Asia: the International Arbitration Centre (IAC).

The IAC at a Glance
The International Arbitration Centre aims to present itself to potential clients as a 21st-century international standard arbitration and alternative dispute resolution entity. Hence, it comes as no surprise that its new headquarters will be located in what was once the Expo 2017 centre in Astana. In an interview with the authors, the Registrar and Chief Executive of the IAC, Mr. Christopher Campbell-Holt, explained that the Centre’s brand new headquarters will cover nine thousand square metres of space, with 15 or more meeting rooms, in addition to private conference rooms, as well as state-of-the-art technology including video conferences so that IAC arbitrators and staff can easily communicate with clients around the world.

The AIFC is intended to assist Kazakhstan to become the “hub” for business in Central Asia, in addition to attracting business from European and Asian markets. Any geographical challenge for businesses in dispute from distant markets will be overcome by the IAC’s state-of-the-art technology, including an eJustice Project which was launched in late February 2019. This is “an online portal that enables parties to file cases at the AIFC Court and IAC electronically from anywhere around the world without having to be physically present in Astana. It can assist with the management of full end-to-end electronic processing of legal documents and administration in cases.”

The IAC’s chairman, Barbara Dohmann QC, is an internationally renowned arbitrator and commercial litigator with professional experience at the ICSID, LCIA, the London Metal Exchange (where she is a member of the Arbitration and Arbitration Appeals Panel), the Paris International Chamber of Commerce, and the Hong Kong International Arbitration Centre.

As for the arbitrators themselves, they consist of more than 30 professionals from across the world. Mr. Campbell-Holt explained that this is a multinational team of legal professionals by design, as the IAC wants to send a clear message that its services are available to both a Central Asian and extra-regional clientèle. Thus, it is important that the IAC’s arbitrators have different cultural backgrounds and languages so they will be more in tune with the customs and traditions of the IAC’s clients. Moreover, the multinational composition of the IAC’s arbitrators sends a message to potential clients that this is an arbitration centre that will serve all parties impartially and neutrally independent of the Kazakhstani state.

In addition to the IAC Chairman who is a woman, out of the 28 arbitrators at the IAC, 23 are men and five are women. Mr. Campbell-Holt explained that the arbitrators were chosen because they are all professionals that can offer world-class service, and there are plans to expand this list in the near future. He also highlighted that its staff includes six Kazakhstani citizens, five of whom are female.

A Modern and Efficient Arbitration Centre
It is important to stress that with the establishment of the AIFC’s IAC, Kazakhstan has created a unique centre for dispute resolution in Central Asia, given how this new entity provides a more efficient forum for dispute resolution than anything else the region currently possesses. This is best demonstrated by the fact that the IAC’s arbitration regulations are based, among others, on the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) with some influence from the English Arbitration Act. The combination of these two models creates a predictable legal framework that can provide confidence to parties considering arbitration as to the efficiency of the proceedings, should they choose to utilize the IAC’s services. Moreover, Kazakhstan acceded to the New York Convention on 20 November 1995.

Furthermore, the IAC offers parties flexibility in choosing the rules and procedures which they wish to utilize to resolve their disputes. For example, parties may agree that the IAC will administer their arbitration according to the IAC’s own Arbitration and Mediation Rules (2018). These rules include procedures for the resolution of investment treaty disputes and expedited arbitrations for disputes with amounts of less than $5 million and amounts of lower value at the discretion of the parties, according to Mr. Campbell-Holt.
Additionally, while only a limited number of arbitration rules (such as the ICC, the ICSID, the ICDR, and the SCC Rules) deal with the parties’ need to obtain urgent protective measures before the constitution of the tribunal, the AIFC’s international arbitration rules have adopted rules concerning Interim Relief through Emergency Arbitration, along with other up-to-date rules and procedures.

The enforcement of arbitral awards as well as of interim relief once ratified by the AIFC Court, an independent entity headed by the Rt. Hon. The Lord Woolf CH, a former Lord Chief Justice of England and Wales, and staffed by former English common law judges and lawyers, will be subject to a writ of execution order issued by the Court itself. The decisions of the AIFC Court are to be enforced in the Republic of Kazakhstan in the same way and on the same terms as decisions made by other courts in Kazakhstan. Additionally, the jurisdiction of the Court will extend to civil and commercial matters. Again, this makes the AIFC, as a whole, as something unique to the region, as we are not talking about just an arbitration centre, but a conglomerate of complementary entities that can help each other to resolve disputes impartially and expeditiously at minimum cost.

While it is true that Kazakhstan is a unitary state and its sovereignty extends to its entire territory, an amendment dated March 2017, subsection 3-1, stipulates that a special legal order relating to financial matters (e.g. the AIFC) may be established within the territory of Astana in accordance with constitutional law. The constitutional amendment ensures the highest international standards of legal procedure, thus providing certainty, predictability, and efficiency.

Astana Is Betting (Heavily) on the IAC
The AIFC enjoys significant support from the Kazakhstan government. It is expected that the IAC will in time be very busy given how Astana is focused on attracting international investors – case in point, the aforementioned partial privatization of Kazatomprom and the planned privatization of several subsidiaries of Kazakhstan Engineering. Hence, the diversity and experience of the IAC’s arbitrators will be a critical factor to ensure that potential clients regard this entity as neutral and professional.

A final factor that will influence the success of the IAC beyond Kazakhstan’s borders has to do with the country’s foreign policy. Astana enjoys good relations with other Central Asian states – including Uzbekistan. Kazakhastani foreign policy will, ideally, contribute to a greater IAC involvement in arbitration cases in neighboring states.

Final Thoughts
The AIFC’s IAC’s goal is straightforward: to become the arbitration system of choice not only for Kazakhstan, but for all of Central Asia, and maybe beyond. We have highlighted the major areas of interest relating to the IAC: it aims to be as flexible as possible in order to adapt to the needs of its clients, this includes the e-filing of cases; the AIFC has adopted English Common Law although the parties may agree to apply any law, civil or common, at the IAC; and it has a multinational list of arbitrators. As this is a new international arbitration centre, potential clients must be reassured that they will receive just and professional treatment.

As the AIFC commences its second year of operations, it will be important to monitor how potential clients look at this new Central Asian financial hub, and the confidence they have on its many entities and interests, including the International Arbitration Centre.

W. Alex Sánchez is an analyst who focuses on international security and geopolitics.
Lucia Scripcari is a Moldovan student finishing her degree in Law at Istanbul Sehir University (Turkey).

The views expressed in this article are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of any institutions with which the authors are associated.

Providence: The Upcoming Meeting Between Presidents Trump and Bolsonaro: A Realist Friendship


"The Upcoming Meeting Between Presidents Trump and Bolsonaro: A Realist Friendship"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Providence Magazine
15 March, 2019
Originally published: https://providencemag.com/2019/03/upcoming-meeting-presidents-trump-bolsonaro-realist-friendship/

President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil will meet with US President Donald Trump on Tuesday, March 19, as part of his trip to Washington, DC. Most generally expect that the two leaders will get along, as the new Brazilian leader has declared himself a fan of the American president. Mutual praising notwithstanding, the great unknown is whether there will be any outcome of substance following their meeting.

An Optimistic Prelude
There are reasons to believe that the meeting will be successful. Apart from Trump tweeting his congratulations when Bolsonaro was elected in October 2018, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo attended his inauguration in Brasilia, an important sign that both capitals want to reset and improve relations. Bolsonaro has even declared that he would like a US military base to be installed on Brazilian territory to help with border security—he eventually retracted that comment, but it is fair to say he meant it.

As part of the Brazilian delegation, “Super” Minister of the Economy Paulo Guedes will also come to Washington. He is one of the “Chicago Boys” who is pushing for greater trade between the two countries; hence, it will be important to see whom he meets while in the US capital, as this may plant the seeds for greater US investment in the South American state. One prime example of the kind of deal that Guedes would want to see more of is the ongoing merger between Boeing (whose headquarters is in Chicago) and the Brazilian aerospace company EMBRAER, a deal worth $4.2 billion.

Always Venezuela
The White House released a statement on March 8 regarding the upcoming visit. The short press release reads:
The leaders of the Hemisphere’s two largest economies will also discuss opportunities for defense cooperation, pro-growth trade policies, combating transnational crime, and restoring democracy in Venezuela. Finally, they will talk about the major role that the United States and Brazil are playing in the effort to provide humanitarian assistance to Venezuela.
Thus, it is obvious that, while the two heads of state will certainly address various topics, the situation in Venezuela is the Bolivarian elephant in the room. The Bolsonaro administration has maintained a pretty strict policy toward de facto President Nicolas Maduro. For example, Brazil has continued to accept Venezuelan refugees (though there have been, sadly, instances of xenophobia against them), reinforced the border with military units, allowed interim President Juan Guaidó to enter Brazilian territory, and called for Maduro to leave power—Bolsonaro famously declared he will help “reestablish order and democracy” in the neighboring state.

It is in Washington’s interest that Bolsonaro continues to keep pressure on Maduro, though it remains to be seen whether this external pressure will bring about the desired regime change in Caracas, one way or another.

Creating a Special Relationship
At an on-the-record event on the upcoming visit titled “Bolsonaro and Trump: What Lies Ahead for Brazil-US Relations?” held at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, DC, the renowned Monica de Bolle, from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, declared that “the bilateral relationship is cordial but never leads anywhere.”

This statement is certainly true as, in spite of generally good relations—moments of tension notwithstanding, like when it was revealed that US intelligence agencies had spied on former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s communications—Brasilia and Washington have never enjoyed a “special relationship” à la Washington-London or Washington-Bogota. The situation in Venezuela has become the catalyst that is bringing the like-minded leaders of Brasilia and Washington together, but it remains to be seen if this is enough to establish a long-lasting close relationship.

Bolsonaro and the Brazilian military would certainly like greater US support toward improving Brazilian border and internal security, namely to combat drug trafficking that crosses Brazilian territory to the ports of Santos, Recife, and Salvador, and from there out to the Atlantic Ocean. The US is improving military cooperation with Brazil, including the bolstering of joint amphibious capabilities through more exercises and the delivery of M109A5+ BR 155 mm howitzers for the Brazilian army. Nevertheless, as Professor Matias Spektor, from the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, explained at the Inter-American Dialogue event, “the visit is not at all about Brazil, it’s about Venezuela… [Trump] is not concerned about the port of Santos; he’s concerned, and understandably, about the situation in Venezuela.” In other words, while the Brazilian military would want to see Bolsonaro secure new defense cooperation agreements to combat drug trafficking in Brazil, Washington is more focused on Venezuela.

Bolsonaro to Meet Washington Conservatives

As a final issue, it is important to note that Bolsonaro will meet with Washington conservatives, including Steven Bannon, according to the renowned Brazilian daily Folha do Sao Paulo.

One of the pillars of support for the Brazilian head of state comes from social Brazilian conservatives, including evangelicals. Hence, it will be interesting to see how the president’s meetings with social conservatives in the US influence his future decisions, particularly regarding foreign policy (e.g., moving the Brazilian embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, as he promised during his presidential campaign).

Final Thoughts
The upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Bolsonaro is expected to be cordial and amicable. Only time will tell whether that personal friendship transforms into any mutually beneficial agreements.

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez is an analyst who focuses on geopolitical, military, and cybersecurity issues.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect those of any institutions with which the author is associated.