Showing posts with label brazilian military. Show all posts
Showing posts with label brazilian military. Show all posts

Thursday, December 8, 2016

CIMSEC: The Status of Brazil's Ambitious PROSUB Program


"The Status of Brazil's Ambitious PROSUB Program"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Center for International Maritime Security
The Southern Tide
November 22, 2016
Originally published: http://cimsec.org/status-brazils-grand-prosub-program/29505

Written by Wilder Alejandro Sanchez, The Southern Tide addresses maritime security issues throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. It discusses the challenges regional navies face including limited defense budgets, inter-state tensions, and transnational crimes. It also examines how these challenges influence current and future defense strategies, platform acquisitions, and relations with global powers.

“The security environment in Latin America and the Caribbean is characterized by complex, diverse, and non-traditional challenges to U.S. interests.” Admiral Kurt W. Tidd, Commander, U.S. Southern Command, before the 114thCongress Senate Armed Services Committee, 10 March 2016.
By W. Alejandro Sanchez
In spite of Brazil’s political crisis, the Brazilian Navy has continued with its ambitious project of domestically constructing a new fleet of submarines, including a nuclear-powered platform. The first Scorpène-class submarine is expected to be launched in 2018, an important development though a couple of years behind schedule. However, the question remains: does Brazil require today, or will it require in the foreseeable future, an advanced submarine fleet?
The PROSUB Program
A 2009 contract between the Brazilian Navy and French conglomerate DCNS “covers the design, production, and technology transfer required for four Scorpène-class conventional submarines, and the design assistance and production of the non-nuclear part of the first Brazilian nuclear powered submarine, including support for construction of a naval base and a naval construction site.” This contract was the result of a defense agreement signed in 2008 by then-Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his French counterpart, then-President Nikolas Sarkozy. This project is known as the Submarine Development Program (Programa de Desarrollo de Submarinos; PROSUB).
At the time of this writing, SBR-1 Riachuelo (S-40) is nearing completion as it is expected to be launched in 2018 and delivered to the Navy in 2020. The next submarine, SBR-2Humaitá, will be launched in 2020, while SBR-3 Tonelero (S-42) and SBR-4 Angostura (S-43) are scheduled to be completed by the early 2020s.
It is worth stressing that the Brazilian Navy is particularly interested in learning how to manufacture the submarines domestically, rather than relying on DCNS to construct and assemble the submarines abroad. For example, in July, the Brazilian company Nuclebras Heavy Equipment (Nuclebrás Equipamentos Pesados; NUCLEP) delivered the stern section of Humaitá to Itaguaí Construções Navais (ICN) which is assembling the platform in Rio de Janeiro. According to IHS Jane’s Defense Weekly, “the submarine’s hull has been divided into five sections and to date … four sections of SBR 2 [have been delivered]. The final one is scheduled to be delivered in November.”
As for the nuclear submarine SN-BR Alvaro Alberto (SN-10),the Brazilian Navy’s PROSUB webpage reports that it is still in the developmental phase and that actual construction will commence in 2017 and be completed by 2025. “The transfer [of the submarine] to the Navy is expected to take in 2027,” the Navy explains.
A word should be said about the status of the shipyard, also part of PROSUB, since the Navy wants the capacity to construct more of these platforms in the future. To this end, a 750,000 square meter complex is under construction in the municipality of Itaguaí (Rio de Janeiro). In 2013, the Metal Structures Manufacturing Unit (Unidade de Fabricação de Estruturas Metálicas; UFEM) was inaugurated, with then-President Dilma Rousseff in attendance. Among other tasks, UFEM will manufacture the metal hull structures of the platforms.
The DCNS and Other Issues
It is necessary to highlight that the construction of these platforms has not been a smooth ride. A 1 March 2013 article by Reuters reported that “the first conventional submarine [will be completed] in 2015 and the nuclear-powered submarine will be commissioned in 2023 and enter operation in 2025, the Brazilian Navy said in a statement.” The timetable was perhaps too ambitious as the first submarine Riachuelo is now scheduled to be launched in 2018, three years later than originally reported. Similarly, the nuclear platform is now expected to be ready by 2025, not 2023. Part of the reason for the delay has to do with the country’s recent economic crisis which has affected the budget of governmental agencies, including defense.
Due to space considerations, we cannot provide a full account of Brazil’s political crisis over the past year with regards to theLava Jato revelations. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the Brazilian conglomerate Odebrecht, which is involved in PROSUB via its ICN unit, has been implicated in the scandal.(Ret.) Admiral Othon Luiz Pinheiro da Silva, considered the father of Brazil’s nuclear program and a major supporter of the nuclear submarine (see his biography in Togzhan Kassenova’s commentary Turbulent Times for Brazil’s Nuclear Projects) has also been implicated in illicit activities. He was sentenced to 43 years in prison this past August for corruption and money-laundering. While PROSUB itself has survived the recent crises, these scandals raise the question whether there will be new allegations of illegal activities surrounding the construction of these platforms in the near future.
The other problem with PROSUB is that sensitive information about the Scorpène-class subs may be out in the open as DCNS has suffered a massive intelligence leak. This past August, the Australian daily The Australian published documents which “detail the secret combat capability of six Scorpène-class submarines that French shipbuilder DCNS has designed for the Indian Navy.” According to reports, the DCNS leak includes more than 22,000 pages about the Indian platforms.
Regarding this incident, Brazilian Rear Admiral Flavio Augusto Viana published a letter stating that “the Brazilian submarines were designed along specifications made by the Brazilian Navy, which means that there are differences between our submarines and those of other countries.” Therefore, the Brazilian Navy, “does not foresee any impact on the construction of the SBR.” The author is not qualified to compare the Brazilian and Indian Scorpène-class subs, however it is likely that there are some general similarities between the two models.
At this point it is worth remembering the words of Admiral Eduardo Leal Ferreira, commander of the Brazilian Navy, who spoke at a recent 26 September event entitled “Addressing Challenges in the Maritime Commons” at the National Bureau of Asian Research. An article written by the author for IHS Jane’s Defense, quotes Admiral Ferreira stating that the PROSUB program is the Navy’s main priority, followed by upgrading the fleet’s frigates, and then repairing the Sao Paulo(A-12) carrier. In other words, PROSUB, in spite of delays, budget issues and other incidents, will continue.
Discussion
Given that PROSUB is well underway and by next decade we will see a modern, domestically constructed, Brazilian submarine flee. The question is: why does Brazil need these platforms?
The standard reason is for Brazil to monitor and protect its 7,500 kilometers of coastline and vast maritime territory, including its natural resources (the discovery of underwater oil reserves is an often-mentioned fact), from domestic and foreign threats. In his remarks for NBAR, Admiral Ferreira added that the Atlantic Ocean is an open ocean, not a closed sea, so Brazil requires a blue water navy, hence the importance of the submarine and aircraft carrier program. The admiral also highlighted the necessity to have freedom of navigation, implying a blue water navy is necessary, “so when there are problems in the South China Sea or the East China Sea or wherever, we won’t be affected.”
This author argues that Brazil does not have any major inter-state issues that would make the submarines, a platform suitable for conventional warfare, necessary. The reality of South American geopolitics is that Brazil’s relations with its 10 neighbors, including one-time competitor Argentina, remain quite cordial. Hence, the possibility that a regional state would attempt to aggressively take control of part of Brazil’s exclusive economy zone is too remote to realistically contemplate.
Additionally, while Brazil has pursued the submarine program (among other platform acquisition projects), this has not sparked a regional arms race for fear of an “imperialist” Brasilia trying to take over a neighbor’s territory. In other words, regional states do not appear threatened by Brazil’s PROSUB program, highlighting the current status of regional geopolitics and the general success of confidence building mechanisms (for example Brazil has a constant presence in regional military exercises, such as hosting UNITAS Brasil 2015 and serving as the deputy commander for PANAMAX 2016 – Multi-National Forces-South), which make the possibility of inter-state warfare remote in this region.
Likewise, there is little chance that an extra-regional power will deploy a fleet to Brazilian waters a la Spanish Armada to take over its oil platforms. While it is true that the U.S. did send a fleet, led by the USS Forrestal, to support Brazil’s military coup in 1964, bilateral, regional and global geopolitics are not the same as five decades ago.
Without a doubt, Brazil deserves a well-equipped and modern navy that can address its 21st century challenges, protecting its maritime territory, particularly the offshore oil platforms, and cracking down on maritime crimes like drug trafficking (or other types of smuggling) or illegal fishing. However, this author argues that submarines are hardly the appropriate platforms for these tasks. A fleet of oceanic patrol vessels (OPVs) along with a robust air wing would be more suitable for coastal and oceanic patrol, including the interdiction of suspicious vessels.
Final Thoughts
In his September remarks at NBAR, Admiral Ferreira explained the need for Brazil to possess a blue water Navy in case of a hypothetical armed conflict in the South or East China Seas. This author has not found a direct correlation between the two issues: if an incident took place, would Brazil need to deploy its platforms to the open seas in defense of freedom of navigation? While the Admiral’s statement is not clear, the wider goal is to obviously increase the power projection of the Brazilian Navy by making it a blue water navy. This explains PROSUB’s priority, as this will be a major source of pride regarding the country’s naval capabilities, including the ability to manufacture these platforms.
Additionally, Admiral Ferreira highlighted that the Brazilian Navy is a dual-purpose navy as “we are not just a war-fighting Navy like the U.S., we have other collateral tasks, we are coast guard, we are maritime authority for safety of the sea [and] we have lots of tasks in the Amazon basin.” Indeed, the Brazilian Navy has a variety of tasks. However, the question remains if a fleet of four Scorpène-class submarines and one nuclear-powered submarine are the ideal platforms to carry out these duties when OPVs and frigate-type platforms (which the Navy is upgrading) are more suitable for these tasks.
Alejandro Sanchez Nieto is a researcher who focuses on geopolitical, military, and cyber security issues in the Western Hemisphere. Follow him on Twitter: @W_Alex_Sanchez.
The views presented in this essay are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of any institutions with which the author is associated.

Monday, August 24, 2015

Quoted in: The scary history and future of Brazil’s booming drone market



"The Scary History and Future of Brazil's Booming Drone Market"
By: Lorien Olive & Orlando de Guzman
Fusion
August 24, 2015
Originally published: http://fusion.net/story/187490/brazil-drone-laad-conference/


Felipe Castro da Silva, an engineer and UAV coordinator with AEL Sistemas, slipped on a black sports jacket as we began our interview. He was talking about the Hermes 900 unmanned aerial vehicle—a UAV or, in more common terminology, drone. A young man with salt and pepper hair, Castro was in Rio de Janeiro’s sprawling RioCentro Mall to dazzle the 40,000 of attendees of the Latin American Aero and Defense Exhibition with details of of Brazil’s newest medium-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) drone. We were next.

“This UAV,” he said, “patrolled the Maracanã Stadium during the 2014 World Cup and will be used again during the 2016 Olympics.” Able to fly for 30 hours uninterrupted, the Hermes 900 can reach altitudes of up to 30,000 feet and is used mainly for surveillance, reconnaissance, and communications relay. From the ground, it is nearly undetectable, he said.

During the World Cup, Castro added, the drone was fitted with a Sky Eye sensor, whose 17 cameras allow security personnel on the ground to track activity in an area of 100 square kilometers. It also has high resolution sensors, able to identify license plates and even faces at 30,000 feet. In terms of its capabilities, the Hermes 900 is comparable to its more notorious American counterpart, the MQ-1 Predator drone.

AEL Sistemas, based in Porto Alegre, became a subsidiary of the Israeli company Elbit in 2001, at which time it began developing a new generation of Brazilian surveillance drones using Israeli technology. But the Hermes 900 was just one example of Brazil’s growing role in the booming global market for unmanned aerial systems. The LAAD expo’s interior was filled with them.
While the U.S. military’s use of deadly Predator and Reaper drones has dominated headlines, the popularity of UAVs among developing countries has gone largely unreported beyond the pages of defense trade publications. However, Alejandro Sánchez, research fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs and one of a handful of researchers tracking the region’s drone boom, said in a recent phone interview that the relative low cost of UAV technology has put drones within reach of even the poorest countries in the Latin America. Indeed, several governments are already developing home-grown UAVs, including Peru, Ecuador, Argentina, and Mexico, which boasts the most affordable surveillance drone priced at a mere $600. Or, as Sánchez put it: “The era of the UAV in Latin America has arrived.”
How Mexico is becoming the drone capital of Latin America

Brazil leads the pack in attracting foreign technology and investment in unmanned aerial vehicles and systems. Its booming defense budget, forecasted to expand by US$10 billion to US$41.1 billion in 2020, has brought leading aeronautics companies to see Brazil as a growth engine for the industry.

In June 2014, Brazil also became the first Latin American country to export home-grown UAVs, when São Paulo-based Flight Tech announced that they won a contract with two undisclosed African countries for a fleet of FT-100 Horus Mini-UAVs.

Sánchez says one reason for Brazil’s rapid ascension in the drone revolution can be found in the history of the military dictatorship. Military rulers built on Brazil’s already formidable industrial prowess by nationalizing key sectors and investing significant state resources toward the development of a military industrial complex. Thus, the dictatorship of Brazil stood out from contemporaries in Chile and Argentina, by cultivating an international reputation as an exporter of quality weapons and aircraft. Embraer (Brazil’s state-owned aeronautics company), established by General Emilio Medici in the 1980s, is currently the 4th largest aircraft manufacturer in the world, after Airbus, Boeing, and the Canadian company, Bombadier. The Brazilian military’s also began its precocious experiments in drone technology in the 1980’s, more than a decade before any other Latin American country.

For many UAV companies, including American ones, the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) are appealing sites for research, development, and production: Brazil and its counterparts offer a highly unregulated airspace to companies fleeing the strict regulations of the American FAA. Brazil’s deregulated airspace, the absence of a rigorous permit system, significantly lowers research and development costs for foreign UAV producers. By investing in homegrown industry, licensing technology, and establishing local subsidiaries, foreign manufacturers are transforming the Brazil into a regional base of drone production for the world market.

According to AI Online, an aerospace and defense magazine, the sales contracts resulting from the 2015 LAAD show that U.S. companies were losing significant ground to international competitors. Despite the fact that the U.S. is home to 86 drone companies (more than double that of any other country), Israeli companies are currently dominating the global market for UAV technology. According to a 2013 Frost & Sullivan report Israeli companies are cornering sales in the developing regions, such as Africa and Asia-Pacific, with a particularly strong presence in Latin American markets due a legacy of robust arms trade between Israel and regional governments throughout the turbulent 1980’s. The U.S. government, meanwhile, continues to heavily regulate the sale of weapons to foreign buyers, especially those considered enemies or otherwise untrustworthy.

Embraer’s capacity to build more highly-sophisticated drone prototypes has greatly expanded in recent years due to healthy infusions of technology and capital. AEL Sistemas, Embraer’s joint venture with Avibras and Elbit, has rolled out not only the Hermes drones, but also the Harpia UAV, a surveillance drone designed to compete with the popular Heron model made by Elbit’s Israeli rival, IAI.

Not to be outdone, following this year’s LAAD, IAI acquired minority holding in the Avionics Services in 2014, as part of its strategic investment in the Brazilian defense market. Together, the two companies are developing the Caçador (Portuguese for hunter), a long endurance UAV designed for the rigors of patrolling Brazil’s vast Amazon rain forest.

Mega-events like the World Cup and Olympics have also been a bonanza for Israeli UAV makers and their Brazilian partners. All told, Brazil spent between US$850 and US$900 billion on high-tech security equipment for the 2014 World Cup, and at least US$350 million went toward a multi-stage contract to purchase fourteen IAI drones and accompanying equipment. And last October, IAI announced that it had won a $2.2 billion contract for security at the 2016 Rio Olympics.

Not everyone is happy, however, with the increasingly cozy relationship between Israeli and Brazilian UAV companies. Only last month, the Rousseff administration publicly denied the existence of the Olympics security contract with IAI after labor and left-wing social movements raised complaints about the company’s troubling history of dealing arms to Central American paramilitary and counterinsurgency groups, including IAI’s founder Al Schwimmer’s role as middleman in the infamous Iran-Contra Affair. If the contract does materialize, however, IAI would join other major private-sector telecom and security companies that make up the Consorcio Brasil Seguro– the consortium responsible for security at mega events—in their effort to maximize the surveillance capacity of the existing drone fleet.

The possible uses of UAVs are endless, Alejandro Sánchez reminded us during our phone interview. Indeed, drones are already being put to use for many civilian purposes, including scouting for archaeological remains in the Amazon, irrigating crops in the arid northeast region, and surveying infrastructure in far-flung Brazilian states.

The Brazilian military and law enforcement have also embraced UAVs as versatile and cost-efficient mechanisms for surveillance. The use of drones for patrolling the country’s border, which spans nearly 10,500 miles and touches every South American country except Chile and Ecuador, has received massive national media attention. And Rousseff’s government has repeatedly held up UAVs as critical for national security, as well as Brazil’s growing aspirations to regional military dominance. Thus far, Brazil has tread lightly with its use of drones in surveillance, anti-smuggling, and counter-terrorism missions that cross its borders, especially for missions that involve the sensitive tri-border region where Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay meet. As a gesture of transparency and good will, Rousseff has insisted on adding code-of-conduct provisos to any bilateral agreement for drone surveillance. These agreements set basic standards for prior notification of cross-border flights, types of surveillance carried out, and data-sharing between Brazil and the neighboring country in question.

Such gestures seem to be paying off. Following the 2008 expulsion of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency from Bolivia’s coca-growing regions under allegations of espionage, Bolivian President inked an agreement with the Brazilian Air Force to begin cross-border UAV patrols. Hailed by both governments as a victory in regional cooperation in the on-going war on drugs, Bolivian law enforcement credited Brazil’s Heron I drones with spotting 240 jungle cocaine labs which narcotics agents were able to later destroy during a single month in 2012.

While the use of drones for border security and regional surveillance is a cause celebre for the Brazilian government, information about the use of UAVs in urban areas is much harder to come by. It is difficult to tell whether this is because the military is reluctant to use potentially invasive surveillance technology in densely populated areas or whether they are concealing the activities of urban UAV programs.

Nonetheless, there is some evidence that the use of drones is gaining traction among law enforcement agencies responsible for urban security. As early as 2012, Rio’s elite military police force, known by the acronym BOPE, began using UAVs for surveillance, according to the online trade magazine Piloto Policial. In the days before the World Cup opening in June 2014, Bloomberg News also reported the first confirmed instance of a UAV used in urban special operations, when the Israeli-made Heron drone’s heat sensors helped the federal police track a top drug kingpin, Little P, into the heart of Rio’s Complexo da Mare favela.

To find out more about the urban applications of UAVs, we caught up with Maurílio Nunes, a Major in Rio’s military police (BOPE) following his energetic presentation to fellow Rio law enforcement officers in attendance at LAAD. Nunes wore the all-black uniform of the military police, his shoulder emblazoned with the ominous BOPE emblem—a grimacing skull pierced by a dagger and two pistols crossed behind it. When we asked him about the use of drones for urban security operations, he responded that BOPE is committed to finding cost-effective ways to combat urban crime and civil unrest, and that drones would be a cheaper and safer alternative to helicopter surveillance of urban “conflict areas.” Despite indications to the contrary, however, he claimed that BOPE was not currently using or testing drones in urban areas. He cited legal restrictions on martial use of UAVs in populated areas. However, our research revealed that under current Brazilian law (AIC N 21/10, September 23, 2010) no such restrictions on UAVs exist, a conclusion confirmed by Alejandro Sánchez. Brazil’s National Civil Aviation Authority is racing to propose regulations ahead of the 2016 Olympics, but these new restrictions will apply to only commercial drones, and not police or military UAVs.
Standing in front of a large yellow sign that prominently displayed Rio’s iconic statue of Christ the Redeemer alongside the Hermes 900 as it glided over Maracanã Stadium during the 2014 World Cup, Felipe Castro concluded the list of the UAVs benefits by noting its substantial 350 kilogram payload. When asked, he acknowledged that the drone could theoretically be equipped with arms, but quickly followed up by saying that the Brazilian Air Force currently has no plans to weaponize UAVs.

Nevertheless, the very same tight-knit bond among military, research institutions, and private industry that makes Brazil so enticing to foreign UAV companies, is also the product of a violent legacy of military authoritarianism. In particular, the secrecy surrounding past military aggressions against freedom of press and expression fuels concerns about the potential abuse of drone technology in Brazil.

In an historic hearing before the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights in 2013, Santiago Cantón, Argentine lawyer and executive director of Robert F. Kennedy Partners for Human Rights, testified that Latin American governments, and Brazil in particular, are being disproportionately targeted for the development and testing of drones for martial (rather than commercial) use. Cantón, and other experts on the human rights implications of UAVs, argued that the Brazilian military’s abysmal track record for transparency and accountability made the intensive development of drones for martial use a matter of great concern for the average citizen.

For his part, Alejandro Sánchez says that regulation, especially in terms of government accountability and the privacy of civilians, is one of the biggest uncertainties in the future of drones in Latin America. This is especially critical, he added, when Latin American governments make the leap toward weaponized UAVs. Presently, there are no international laws or treaties that govern the use or proliferation of armed drones. Only the broad terms of the Geneva Convention offer some guidance, but its language does not reflect advances in technology. Sánchez points out that groups such as the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots are pursuing an international convention that would place pre-emptive restrictions on lethal UAV technologies, especially those with autonomous capabilities.

Ultimately, he predicts that “it’s likely not a matter of if, but when Latin American militaries will begin arming drones.”

One sign that weaponized UAVs may soon be a reality is an April article by Defense Web that South African drone company Desert Wolf would be courting Brazilian manufacturers at the 2015 LAAD in order to secure a regional base for production of their SKUNK riot control copter. As Tim Pool reported, the SKUNK UAV is equipped with non-lethal weapons such as pepper balls, paintballs, blinding lasers, and rubber bullets, and is touted by Desert Wolf’s managing director, Hennie Kieser, as a humane alternative to riot police because it removes human risk factors like error, fear, and anger from high-pressure scenes of civil unrest.

In an email exchange following the 2015 LAAD, Kieser told us that the SKUNK generated “huge excitement” among conference attendees. He added that while Desert Wolf continues to look for the best fit for its Brazilian manufacturing facility, they did receive an order for a fleet of ten SKUNK riot control copters, which will be delivered to their client in Rio once one additional feature has been installed. Kieser did not respond to follow-up requests for the name of the client and the additional feature.

Kieser has cited the 2012 Marikana massacre, a bloody clash between South African riot police and union members over labor conditions in a platinum mine, as inspiration for the creation of the SKUNK. Desert Wolf provided surveillance UAVs to the mining company during a chaotic confrontation that left 41 mine workers dead at the hands of security forces. Survivors of the Marikana massacre, along with international labor organizations and Noel Sharkey of the International Committee for Robot Arms Control campaign group, have publicly rejected Desert Wolf’s claim that the SKUNK drone would lead to more humane outcomes in the future.

Video credits:
Camera/Producer: Orlando de Guzman
Editor: Lorien Olive
Reporter: Tim Pool
Researcher: Lorien Olive

Music: Warner Library

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Peru: the Coca Erradication program and ongoing civil-military and security issues



Peru: the Coca Erradication program and ongoing civil-military and security issues


W. Alejandro Sanchez
Research Fellow
Council on Hemispheric Affairs
Blog Post - August 24, 2011

Some days ago, Peru made headlines when the newly elected government with former military officer Ollanta Humala as president ordered the suspension of a coca eradication program. In a surprise move, the government suspended the CORAH project (Proyecto Especial de Control y Reduccion de Cultivos Ilegales de Coca en el Alto Huallaga ). At the time Prime minister Salomon Lerner Ghitis and minister of interior Oscar Valdes stated that the measure was temporary, while the U.S. expressed concern about this new development:

U.S. Ambassador Rose M. Likins told reporters as she left the National Assembly building in Lima that she was awaiting an explanation of the government's reasons for the suspension of the manual eradication program, which began in January in the Upper Huallaga Valley region. The U.S. has spent $10 million on the effort this year.
Then, on August 21, President Humala declared that the eradication program will continue after all.




It is important to mention that the suspension of the coca eradication program was the one located in the Huallaga valley. Coca eradication operations in the VRAE (Apurimac Ene River Valley) are minimal as there is not enough security due to criminal groups operating in that area. The VRAE valley is where the last remnants of the Peruvian narco-terrorist group, Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso), are located.


According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime annual report issued in June, Peru ranks a close second to Colombia among the world's leading coca and cocaine producers. [Peru’s] Huallaga Valley is not the country's chief coca growing region. That distinction belongs to the area known as VRAE […] an area so lawless that the eradication programs are thought to be impractical from a security standpoint.

This statement is sort of paradoxical, since as Colombia is the world’s foremost coca producer, then it should also be the major cocaine producer. One explanation to this reality is that Colombian authorities seize 40% of cocaine production compared to Peru’s only 10%. Then again, considering that it is impossible to know exactly how much cocaine is produced in either country by the plethora of illegal cocaine labs that exist, there is always the chance that these estimates could be grossly wrong.

Peruvian government officials went on to explain that Lima was not permanently suspending the eradication program, but rather wanted to take some kind “time off” to analyze the success of the operations so far and then start anew. Several government supporters went on the Peruvian media to explain their reasons for supporting the temporary suspension. As previously mentioned, President Humala has gone on record to say that the eradication programs will continue. The Peruvian Premier Salomon Lerner explained that the pause was meant “para asignar los instrumentos necesarios para el exito de las intervenciones,” (to assign the necessary instruments for the success of the operations)

In spite of what could have been the fate of the program, which is a major priority for Washington, the real story here is understanding the relations between President Humala and his military, which will shape future military and police operations regarding coca eradication and other anti-drug trafficking operations. There has already been some drama regarding the president’s relationship with his military. Humala has named General Benigno Cabrera as the head of the Region Militar del Centro (Center military region), which has caused some controversy as Cabrera was Humala’s boss when the now president was a captain in the Peruvian army in 1992 when they both were stationed in a counterinsurgency base.




Furthermore, President Humala has clashed with the current military leadership in the VRAE, when he stated that he is willing to give more funds and other resources to the security operations there, but he wants to see more results. He also seems to want a radical change in operations in that violent area. For his part, the Peruvian drugs czar, Ricardo Soberon, ambitiously declared to the media that he aimed to be rid of drug trafficking in the VRAE valley in five years.



Politics and coca eradication initiatives aside, clashes continue between Peru’s security forces and narco-groups, including Shining Path, in Peru’s Amazon and highlands. Some days ago, members of Peru’s anti-drugs police unit were attacked by criminals in the Andean region of Huanuco. The police unit did not have enough weapons and ammo and the criminals managed to steal half a ton of cocaine that the police were transporting. Unfortunately, it is not just the police that lacks equipment to carry out their duties. An august 14 article in Peru.com reported that soldiers in the VRAE were eating food rations that had already expired, due to a fraudulent deal between the military and the company that manufactured them. In addition, a Shining Path member was arrested in Bolivia this past July, which shows new attempts by the narco-terrorist group to strengthen its numbers.



Wednesday, February 3, 2010

The Brazilian Military Is Back, As It Fleshes Out Its Weaponry And Strategies

by COHA Research Fellow Alex Sánchez
09 Sep 2008
Council on Hemispheric Affairs
http://www.coha.org/the-brazilian-military-is-back-as-it-fleshes-out-its-weaponry-and-strategies/

• New grandiose plan: a nuclear-powered submarine

• Russia and France vie to be the Brazilian military’s new best friend and supplier

• The legacy of the 1964-1985 military dictatorship sits as a portentous cloud over Brazil’s democratic future

• Recent military and intelligence scandals range from coping with homosexuality within the ranks to wire tapping of government officials

• Debate continues on what role the military deserves to play, if any


In recent years, the Brazilian military has embarked on a mission to re-invent itself by means of a combination of purchases of new military equipment, grandiose plans for constructing a nuclear submarine, and the leadership offered by a pronouncedly pro-military president, as Lula Da Silva has turned out to be. In addition to these factors, a growing number of alliances have been formed with key extra-hemispheric and other regional actors, with Brazil demonstrating its interest in becoming something more than simply a regional military power.

Brazil’s Armed Forces: A Brief History
The Brazilian military has a history composed of both high and low points, the latter being its tendency to intervene in governmental affairs, reaching its apogee in the 1964 military coup that set up the military junta which ruled the country harshly until 1985. Brazil’s current global military ambitions are rooted in the major operations in which the country’s military was involved during World War II in Italy, as well as its current domination of the UN’s peacekeeping force in Haiti. Interestingly, the Brazilian armed forces have not been engaged in combat on its own continent in one way or another since the latter part of the 19th century, when Brazil participated in the War of the Triple Alliance from 1864-1870 against Paraguay.

When it comes to its dark eras, the Brazilian military has been involved in a series of coups, the last of which occurred on March 31, 1964, when it overthrew the constitutional presidency of Joao Goulart and proceeded to retain power until 1985. During that period, five military presidents were “elected” by their fellow senior commanders to lead the military junta ruling the country. The regime finally stepped down that year amid nationwide demonstrations calling for a return to civilian rule. For many years and based on sound evidence, sober allegations have been made that Washington backed that military coup, which it has always framed in Cold War terms.

Brazil’s military is also known for having developed a strong industrial base for much of its weapons output, particularly during the height of military rule in the 1960s-1980s. Brazil’s weapons arsenal includes the well-known Tucano fighter aircraft, which is still widely used by other countries in and outside the region, including Peru, not to mention different types of tanks and armored personal carriers (APCs).

The Brazilian military has also had to deal with homegrown insurgencies. In 1974, around 10,000 Brazilian troops were assigned to attack leftist encampments in the Amazon, where guerrillas were said to have been planning an organized uprising against the military regime. At least 60 civilians were killed, with others later disappearing from the jails in which they were being detained. In 2007, Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered the military to open its secret files regarding the “disappeared” insurgents.

About 400 Brazilian dissidents are thought to have been detained and abused throughout the period of the military regime’s rule, with many of them still missing, presumed to have been murdered. In 2006, Maria Amelia de Almeida Teles filed a lawsuit against Col. Carlos Alberto Brilhante Ustra, who headed the Sao Paulo secret police from 1970-1974, accusing him of torturing her and four family members when they were imprisoned for 11 months between 1972 and 1973. These developments are not apocryphal neither do they distort the pathological anti-societal creedal beliefs held by the Brazilian military at the time. Most recently, the remains of Miguel Nuet, a Spanish citizen who disappeared during the Brazilian dictatorship, were found in an unmarked grave in the outskirts of Sao Paulo. According to reports, Nuet had been arrested on October 9, 1973, under suspicion of being a terrorist; the police said he committed suicide while in custody, one month after his arrest.

The Brazilian Military: the Gay issue and other Scandals
At present, Brazil defense expenditures continue to overshadow those of all South American nations. The Brazilian military is a comparatively large force, currently fielding around 200,000 personnel. The Brazilian armed forces have had a somewhat troubled history in a number of areas, including how they have dealt with homosexual conscripts. In June 2008, Army Sergeant Laci Marinho de Araujo was arrested on live television because he discussed his personal relationship with another soldier. The army had filed desertion charges against him, saying he had been missing since April; Marinho adamantly insists that he and his partner are victims of sexual discrimination.

Another growing scandal has been the alleged wiretapping of several top government officials including Gilmar Mendes, president of the Supreme Court. General Jorge Felix of Brazil’s Institutional Security Ministry accused rogue elements within ABIN of the wiretapping, arguing that “ABIN, as an institution, has never done and does not do these things.”

Other scandals include the so-called “Massacre of the Baixada Fluminense,” in which 29 were killed by an armed gang, in a northern region of the state of Rio de Janeiro. A military policeman named Carlos Jorge Caravalho was found guilty in 2006 of arming and training the gang, and was sentenced to 543 years in prison. In June 2008, eleven soldiers were arrested for handing over three men to a Rio de Janeiro gang. The three, two students and a laborer, were subsequently murdered. These are just a few of the disturbingly large number of daily incidents involving uniformed personnel implicated in a range of illicit activities with street gangs.

Budget, Weaponry and the Uses of the Military
Since before the 1990s, Brazil had capped annual military spending at about $3 billion, or 1.78 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, as compared to the region’s average of 1.98 percent of GDP. This budget was allocated to equipment acquisition programs as well as to salaries, maintenance, training and infrastructure development of the three military branches. However, starting in 2004, Brazil’s military expenditures started to climb rapidly.

In 2007, Brazil’s military budget bordered $3.5 billion; this year, the budget has reached $5 billion. This is a relatively, an astounding figure, which would be difficult for any other power to match, with the probable exception of Venezuela’s armed forces, which is presently involved in a large weapons’ procurement program with Russian, Spanish and likely Chinese suppliers, to be for by “petro-dollars.”

Brazil also possesses significant weaponry, though its recent military purchases from foreign companies have been more a part of a regular maintenance process rather than an effort to stress any preponderance of military strength in the region. However, this attitude began to change in 2006, as part of a replacement schedule, when Brazil purchased four C-295 military transport planes from EADS CASA, a Spanish weapons manufacturer.

To demonstrate its growing military prowess, a massive 10-day military exercise code-named Albacora was carried out by the Brazilian armed forces at Rio de Janeiro’s Macaé Port in September 2007. This included the deployment of over 8,500 troops, along with 250 military vehicles, 19 warships, and 50 aircraft. Half of the aircraft were helicopters – among them navy Eurocopter HU-14 Super Pumas and UH-12/13 Fennecs/Esquilos, AgustaWestland AH-11A Super Lynx AH 11A, and Sikorsky Aircraft SH-3A/B Sea Kings, army HA1 Fennecs/Esquilo, Eurocopter HM1 Panthers, and air force H-34 Super Pumas and H-50 Esquilos.

This is not to say that the Brazilian military is focusing only on weaponry, the question of the new goal and objectives of the military are being discussed in strategic terms. Roberto Mangabeira Unger, minister of the Strategic Affairs Secretariat of the Presidency has declared that “one of the main reasons for devising a national defense strategy is to have a shield not only against aggressions, but also against intimidations. If Brazil wants to explore its own path it cannot be subject to intimidations.” An inter-ministerial commission headed by Minister Jobim has been charged to define how the military should act “in times of peace or war.”

The Brazilian military is once again taking on a greater role in internal security initiatives, specifically, combating the drug trafficking cartels that recently have been emboldened to more openly operate in the country. In March 2008, the Brazilian army burnt as many as 7,000 coca crops in Tabatinga, Amazonas state. Also found on site was a laboratory capable of processing cocaine. There have long been fears that Colombian drug cartels were formally outsourcing the cultivation of coca and cocaine-processing to neighboring countries, such as Brazil.

Another possible use for the military, resulting from an idea attributed to Carlos Minc, Brazil’s minister for the environment, is that the armed forces should patrol the questionable use of nature reserves in the Amazon. “I am going to propose the creation of patrols or movements by army regiments to watch over the big parks and reserves,” he was quoted as saying. Since Brazil has around 300 nature parks and reserves, this would be a sizeable task for any military establishment to take on, particularly since corruption routinely has encouraged payoffs to be paid to senior military commanders for providing protection and looking the other way when cattle-ranchers were being illegally allotted the use of public lands, at an under-the-table price, often involving the destruction of rain forests. In August 2008, amidst growing tensions between Indian tribes and landowners, an AP story reported that “top military generals warn that too much land in Indian hands, especially along Brazil’s borders, threatens national security and could lead to tribes unilaterally declaring themselves independent nations.”

Military Control of Civil Aviation
The military already controls important aspects of Brazil’s aviation industry, which frequently has been criticized in light of the high number of plane crashes and other accidents, including incidents involving facilities across the country in recent years. For example, in 2007, a TAM Airlines Airbus crashed at Congonhas, killing 199 people. This tragic event in particular prompted a massive re-evaluation of the military’s management of the civilian aviation industry and raised the possibility for having the industry revert to civilian control.

Patrolling Haiti
On the regional and international scene, the Brazilian military was the founder and remains a leading contributor to the United Nations Stabilization Mission to Haiti (MINUSTAH). The Brazilian-led mission, in which its military has played a somewhat controversial role, was deployed there beginning in June 2004, a few months after constitutionally-elected president Jean-Bertrand Aristide was pressured out of office by a coup allegedly orchestrated by the U.S., France and the UN. Brazil’s military involvement in this mission has been riddled with problems and its resulting image has been blemished, particularly by its soldiers’ trigger-happy tendency, their disrespect for ordinary Haitians and, at times, a lack of professionalism. In January 2006, Lieutenant General Urano, the Brazilian Commander of MINUSTAH, committed suicide.

In June 2008, Brazilian Defense Minister Nelson Jobim announced that Brazil would send an additional 300 troops to Haiti, 100 of them from the Engineer’s Battalion. According to MINUSTAH’s official UN webpage, the force’s current strength (as of July 31, 2008) totaled 9,040 “uniformed personnel, including 7,105 troops and 1,935 police, supported by 474 international civilian personnel, 1,166 local civilian staff and 192 United Nations Volunteers.” The force remains headed by a Brazilian military officer, Major-General Carlos Alberto Dos Santos Cruz.

The Brazilian minister declared that “the problem is that we have to be in Haiti. It is Brazil’s duty to be in Haiti because Brazil is a major power. And as a major power, we have a responsibility towards the Latin American countries. The country does not need money, because there are already big international donors. The problem is: the money is there, but there are no projects.” Such a comment, redolent of neo-Manifest Destiny rhetoric famed by early 19th century U.S. leaders, lends the belief that Jobim and his senior colleagues may now explicitly view their country as the Western Hemisphere’s new “city on the hill.”

President Lula Enters the Picture
Lula has been keen to remain on the right side of the military and has made some firm declarations professing his desire to build a revitalized, more powerful military. This is somewhat ironic of Lula, taking into consideration that as a union leader in the 1980s he was very critical of the armed forces, but today he caters to their every expansion plan, including, outlandishly enough, entertaining the construction of a nuclear submarine, scheduled to cost hundreds of millions of dollars. It will be interesting to learn more about Lula’s commitment to the matter of investigating the military regime’s dark past and what Lula might do should he discover that some high ranking military officials, as is likely, were involved in human rights abuses and disappearances of enemies of the regime. He declared in August 2007 that “we should set a deadline and plan what strategy to use so we can definitively know and recover,” and then added “one of the wounds that remains open is finding the remains of many adversaries.” He has stopped short, however, of actually delivering justice to the victims’ families. The members of the military dictatorship are protected by a 1979 amnesty that even the vociferous Lula has been unwilling to challenge even at his most ebullient moment.

Brazil’s Military Industry
During the 1970s the Brazilian military industry was highly respected, with its Tucano air fighter as its hub contribution to tactical weaponry at the time, with the aircraft still in use today. Brazil’s military industrial companies, Embraer, Engesa and Avibras have built other type of weaponry, specially from the 1960s to 1980s, besides the Tucano. Among these we can find EE-17 Sucuri tank destroyer, the EE-9 Cascavel armored reconnaissance vehicle, the EE-3 Jararaca scout car, as well as the MB-3 Tamoyo tan. The EE-T1 Osorio main battle tank was Engesa’s flagship tank. With the end of the Cold War and major conventional warfare operations, Brazil’s military industry ran out of clients, forcing Engesa and Avibras to file for bankruptcy in the mid-1990s.

Lula made clear his intention to exhume Brazil’s military industry during a September 2007 trip to Spain. In an interview with Spanish daily El Pais, the Brazilian leader declared that “in the 1970s, we had modern factories that built tanks […] But they have been dismantled. Brazil must return to what it had. To rebuild our weaponry factories, we must buy.”

In 2007, Empresa Brasileiras de Aeronautica SA, or Embraer, said it was studying the development of a military transport plane that could compete with the Lockheed C-130. If the plane is manufactured, the Embraer C-390, could transport up to 19 metric tons (21 tons). This would be the heaviest aircraft ever produced by the company, the world’s No. 4 aircraft manufacturer. If manufactured, it would be available by 2011 or 2012.

Embraer’s leading military aircraft is currently the Super Tucano turbo-prop model, which mainly has been used to train air force pilots. In 2006, Brazil sold 25 of these aircraft to Colombia, in a deal worth $235 million. In June 2008, EP Aviation announced that it purchased a 314-B1 Super Tucano fighter (without the two .50-caliber machine guns normally attached to the wings) from Embraer, for the price of $4.5 million. EP Aviation is a subsidiary of Blackwater Worldwide, an exceedingly controversial U.S. private security contractor that has been heavily involved in operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. A June 2008 Associated Press article reported that preliminary negotiations are now being carried out between Embraer and U.S. authorities to sell eight Super Tucanos to Iraq. The Tucano is a light aircraft normally used for pilot-training but it can also be used for light attack missions or for air patrols. In August 2008, Chile announced that it had contracted Embraer to construct 12 Super Tucano for the Chilean Air Force. Also, during the LAADS 2007 weaponry exhibition, the Brazilian Flight Solutions company unveiled its FS-01 Watchdog, a new medium tactical unmanned air vehicle.

In February 2007, European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co. (EADS) announced that it had sold its 2.12 percent stake in Embraer for a profit of $163 million (before taxes and bank fees). EADS CEOs Tom Enders and Louis Gallois said in a statement, at the same time, “we remain fully committed to our partnership with Embraer, which has matured over many years. Brazil and Latin America are important markets and we will continue to strengthen our industrial presence in the region.”

Until Embraer regains its lost eminence as a designer/manufacturer of military aircraft, Brazil’s armed forces are relying on foreign companies to re-invigorate their inventory. The U.S. Boeing Co. has joined other manufacturers of military technology (like Russia’s Sukhoi, Sweden’s Saab and France’s Dessault Aviation) in making a bid to sell specific military models to Brazil. The corporation’s representatives visited Brazil in March 2008 and were keen on marketing Boeing’s F/A-18 Hornet twin engine, tactical aircraft. It is expected that Brazil will purchase anywhere from 24 to 36 planes in this category from whatever company wins the bid.

At the same time, Russia’s Rosoboronexport and Italy’s Agusta Aerospace are vying for a $500 million contract to supply Brazil with 12 helicopters. Rosoboronexport is offering its MI35 helicopters while Agusta is offering the AW-109. Other competitors are the American Bell Helicopter and the French-manufactured Eurocopter.

Integration, Deals and Projects
Perhaps one of the most ambitious projects for Brazil’s military is that of its proposed nuclear submarine. For decades, Brazil has attempted to build a nuclear sub without much success. Last year, Lula declared a new attempt for the country to construct a locally-built vessel. On the face of it, the project seemed far-fetched if not slightly ludicrous, since Brazil has no perceived external enemy threat (Venezuela being an extreme long shot), and because the project would be immensely expensive and could only be produced by 2020, if everything went according to plan. In February 2008, an interesting development occurred. Lula visited Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in Buenos Aires, and the two leaders agreed to jointly build nuclear-powered submarines, since both countries have had a nuclear history. Even more intriguing was a declaration by French President Nicolas Sarkozy that France would be contributing to the project. In fact, it is believed that the French Scorpene-class submarine (a diesel-powered attacked sub) will serve as the model for Brazil’s nuclear vessel.

In December 2006, then-Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Brasilia where he met with his Brazilian counterpart, Celso Amorim. Russia’s state-run arms exporting company Rosoboronexport demonstrated the performance attributes of the BuK-M2 antiaircraft missile system at the LAADS 2007 exhibition of defense technology in Rio de Janeiro. While it is unclear whether Brazilian officials showed any interest in the weapons system, it is worth highlighting that Russia’s well-known weapons manufacturer specifically chose the Brazilian exhibition for BuK’s debut. In early February 2008, Jobim traveled to Russia where he met with Lavrov as well as Defense Minister Anatoly Sedyukov. In April 2008, the London security publication Jane’s Defence Weekly revealed that Brazil and Russia had reached an agreement on joint ventures involving military technology, including the “Veiculo Lancador de Satellites” launch vehicle.

In February 2008, there was a noteworthy meeting between Lula and French President Sarkozy, in the town of Saint-Gorges de Oyapock, on the border between French Guyana (a French overseas territory) and Brazil. Reports say that Sarkozy was pushing to sell military technology to Brazil and arrange for Brazilian companies to be licensed to build French weaponry like the Rafale fighter plane and the Scorpene class submarine. In the past decade, the South American giant has become France’s most important ally in the region. Hence it was no surprise that Sarkozy stated that “there is no taboo. Brazil is a democratic power and a friend of France. We, the French, are transparent with friends, and the two countries are willing to work for world peace.”

IBSA Front and Center
In May 2008, Brazil sent several warships to South Africa to participate in military exercises, as did India. Hence, there is mounting talk about the growing depth and strength of the India-Brazil-South Africa (IBSA) alliance. It is noteworthy that there is a, albeit modest, security aspect to the arrangement, as the three countries are all regional military powers. Brazil’s navy had sent the Liberal and the Independencia, both of which are guided missile frigates of the Neteroi class, to participate in these IBSA military exercises.

Other exercises to promote regional integration included joint military exercises in June 2007 involving nearly 200 pilots of the Brazilian Air Force (FAB) and the Argentine Air Force (FAA). The pilots used 18 fighter planes for training operations, which include intercepting suspicious air traffic, reconnaissance and search and rescue operations. Most recently, in August 2008, Brazil and Venezuela carried out Operation VENBRA 5, involving 260 soldiers from the FAB and 140 from the Venezuelan Air Force (ANV). This VENBRA operation was a joint training and simulation exercise to improve cooperation between both air forces in order to combat illicit airline flights. The exercises took place in the Venezuelan Bolivar and Brazilian Roraima border regions.

Brazil in a Militarized Region
A May 2008 article in Rotor & Wing summarizes Brazil’s security woes, observing that “with no quarrels along its16,885-km borderline with 10 adjoining countries, Brazil’s contemporary threats, if any, would arise not from any recognizable state and military entity but from non-state groups, transnational criminal organizations, proxies, and other bodies operating in more complex, ambiguous, and multidimensional terms. The risks could come from sabotage, terrorism, piracy, and the staging and stockpiling of illicit drugs and weaponry.” Thus, a more vigorous Brazilian military must be put in the context of military and non-military events taking place in the region.

With regards to examples of a regional arms race being staged, Venezuela, Colombia and Chile could be theoretical security factors to Brazil. Not the least, even Peru is making strides when it comes to military deployment. In 2007 Brazilian Senator Jose Sarney, a former president who is now a key ally of President Lula, declared that Venezuela posed a “threat” to Brazil and Latin America. In response, Venezuelan General Alberto Mueller Rojas told the Brazilian daily Folha de Sao Paulo, “that’s simply ridiculous … Venezuela is not in any sort of arms race. Ex-president Sarney must be crazy or simply joking around.” He then added that Sarney “knows perfectly well … what is the size of Brazil’s (armed) forces and what is the size of Venezuela’s forces. It’s an abysmal difference.”

An interesting development in regional military matters has been the feisty decision by Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa not to renew the lease of the military base in Manta to the U.S., which is set to expire in 2009. After President Martin Torrijos, who is presently militarizing Panama’s security capabilities, ended all speculation about his country being Washington’s prospective landlord for a new military base for U.S. forces in his country, speculation switched to either Colombia or Peru, since the other option, Paraguay, recently elected a fairly left-leaning president, who has no intention of handing out an airport to the Americans.

Another development that has attracted international media attention, though it may not necessarily amount to anything significant, has been the creation of the Conselho Sul-Americano de Defesa (CSD – South American Defense Council), an organ of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR/UNASOL). Some South American countries, including, as of now, an initially ambivalent Colombia, as well as Guyana and Suriname, have voiced their support for the project, spearheaded by Brazil. In spite of all the hype, it is unclear how much of an effective organ CSD could be, for any number of reasons. First, there is a growing proliferation of pan-American organizations in the region, making it somewhat unclear which organization is actually in charge. There is the Andean Pact, MERCOSUR, the Venezuelan-led ALBA, IBA which includes Brazil, the Rio Group, the Ibero-American Secretariat and now UNASUR. Similarly there is already a hemispheric-wide security entity, the Inter-American Defense Board (IADB) and College, both of them based in Washington D.C. The elephant not in the room is of course that the CSD, unlike the IADB, would not have the U.S. as its most influential member. Some analysts would argue that this could lead to greater security and cooperation among a group of autonomous Latin American countries feeling enthusiastic and free, because of Washington’s absence. An interesting note is that Mexico was not even considered being invited to join UNASUR. It is true that Mexico is not part of South America, however, seeing that Suriname and Guyana, which traditionally orient their foreign relations towards the English-speaking Caribbean, were invited, it would have made some sense to at least have proposed to the Mexicans to join the new bloc in-formation, in the name of Latin American unity.

This touches on a second point, which is whether or not a Brazilian-led South American NATO-style security organization, could achieve integration, security or demilitarization. South America continues to be plagued with security issues that have yet to be resolved and which are likely to create distrust between militaries. Examples of these are:

• Tensions among Peru, Bolivia and Chile

• Argentine distrust towards Chile due to Santiago’s aid to the British during the 1982 Falklands/Malvinas War

• Friction between Colombia and Venezuela and Colombia and Ecuador over the recent infiltration of Colombian forces into Ecuador to attack a secret FARC jungle base

• Concerns last year about a possible infiltration of Venezuelan troops into Guyana

• Historical differences on which country is the leading military powerhouse in the region, Brazil or Argentina, both of which have prideful military high commands which may not be keen on following the lead of the military command of another country (as in the case of cooperation in United Nations peacekeeping missions). The Venezuelan military and the problem-prone Chilean armed forces do not markedly differ in this assessment as well.

An important event that will arguably boost Brazil’s view of its strategy to maintain a strong military comes from the discovery of ultra-deep oil and gas fields in the Santos Basin off the coast of Sao Paulo state, which are likely to catapult Brazil to the ranks of the world’s major hydrocarbon producers. The aforementioned Rotor & Wing article explained that “the Tupi and Jupiter fields also promise to elevate the state-owned oil company Petrobras from the world’s 11th to sixth biggest energy company, by some rankings.”

Brazilian Relations with the U.S.
The U.S. and Brazil traditionally have at times had strained relations, and always complex ones, Brazil sees itself as South America’s hegemon and does not like to have to share its influence with that of the U.S. A general parallel could be made to Russo-Turkish relations over influence regarding the Black Sea. In both cases there exists a global power and a regional power (with global aspirations) fighting for control over their respective spheres of influence. With the rise of leftist governments across the Western Hemisphere, as well as the “Venezuela-effect” in terms of a new leftist-alliances undercutting Washington, as well as a new generation of military power and political leadership, it will be interesting to see how Brasilia-Washington relations progress, particularly in regard to how both governments approach Caracas.

The Military Coup of 1964 and U.S. Complicity
In addition, Brazil-U.S. relations have been particularly cautious and uneasy ever since the aforementioned 1964 military coup. According to a November 2006 Associated Press article, Carlos Fico, a professor at Rio de Janeiro’s Federal University, declared to the press that a seven-page document entitled “A Contingency Plan for Brazil,” co-written by then-U.S. Ambassador Lincoln Gordon in the mid 1960s, discussed fears of a possible communist takeover in Brazil and how Goulart might be replaced by the speaker of Brazil’s lower house of Congress. The document was dated January 6, 1964. In addition, the Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA) has, for years, supported the belief that the U.S. was involved in planning the coup against Goulart. This charge by COHA was made known in the 1970s, in a COHA report which was later referred to by a number of Brazilian publications, detailing the presence of an American aircraft carrier off the coast of the state of Sao Paulo, as part of a battle fleet. This information was conveyed during an Amtrak train ride from Washington to New York, in a chance meeting between COHA director Larry Birns and a former U.S. Navy carrier pilot, who was stationed aboard that carrier, who explained that he and his U.S. naval colleagues were under orders to come to the aid of their Brazilian counterparts with their naval assets, if need be, if the coup that was being carried out had failed that day.

This is not to say that military cooperation between the two hemispheric giants does not exist today. Quite to the contrary, Washington appears keen on bringing Brazilian officials and military academics to the U.S. to study and attend specialized conferences and workshops. For example, the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies (CHDS), part of the National Defense University (NDU), located in Washington D.C., has two Brazilian nationals on its faculty: Dr. Thomaz Guedes Da Costa is Professor of National Security Affairs and formerly of the University of Brasilia. Also on staff at CHDS is Colonel Rui C. Mesquita, a 1983 graduate of the Brazilian Air Force Academy. Mesquita also an executive assistant to President Lula for four years.

More recently, a press release issued by the U.S. embassy in Brazil reported that, “for the first time in its existence, U.S. Army South has a foreign officer on its staff. Lt. Col. Raul Rodrigues de Oliveira, a Brazilian cavalry officer and UH-60 pilot, [who] began work as a Foreign Liaison Officer at U.S. Army South, the Army component of U.S. Southern Command.”

Furthermore, according to Just The Facts, a research database administered by the Center for International Policy that monitors U.S. defense and security assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean, there has been significant military link between both countries. Between 1999 and 2006, there were 1,454 Brazilian military and police trainees in U.S. programs like the CHDS, the Army Logistics Management College and the Naval Post-Graduate School. Interestingly there have not been any Brazilian trainees at the former School of the Americas (now called the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation, WHINSEC) in Fort Benning, Georgia, but that may be due to the fact that most courses there are taught in Spanish.

What’s Next for the Brazilian Military?
Brazil’s military is at a crossroads. It today faces no external security challenge, no matter what doomsayers may say about the putative intentions of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez, yet the country does have a dark past in internal security matters. However, the average Brazilian believes and implicitly trusts in the military, and it can be assumed that the country’s present-day military wants to live up to these expectations.

The Brazilian military is an example of an armed forces which, at least in its own belief, must be prepared to defend its own borders and safeguard its immense treasure trove of natural resources (including recent discoveries of oil and natural gas), while projecting its civic strengths to the world, be it through peacekeeping missions in Haiti, military exercises in South Africa, or the acquisition of a nuclear submarine. There is a lot of potential for the expanding role of the Brazilian military in global affairs, but the type of legacy it will want to create is more than just a matter of possessing strong leadership and clearly defined goals – it must also have the means and the agreed-upon military doctrine to carry out its self-perceived mission in a democratic ambience and total submission to representative civilian rule.