Interview: Cuba: Obama is much more popular than Castro brothers. Why?

"Cuba: Obama is much more popular than the Castro brothers. Why?"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Interview
Matisak's Blog (A Stamp on the World)


According to one published poll US President Barack Obama is much more popular in Cuba than Castro brothers. Why would you say it is so, how would you read the mood of Cubans out of it?Read few comments.

W. Alex Sanchez, Research Fellow, Council on Hemispheric Affairs

It would be bizarre to believe that in 2015 the population of an authoritarian state like Cuba would truly believe that the U.S. is “the enemy.” Sure, the internet does not have a widespread presence in the Caribbean island as in other countries, but it does have an impact. Additionally, relaxed travel rules allow for Cuban Americans to return to the island and tell their relatives that Washington is some kind of “evil empire,” that is prepared to invade their country.

Moreover, since his election, President Obama himself has been viewed positively by the Latin American masses. His handshake with President Raul Castro during Nelson Mandela’s funeral, while it may have been improvised and inevitable because the two leaders ran into each other and it would have been too awkward for them not to greet, was widely covered in Latin America, as a sign that Washington and Havana under Obama and Raul Castro could fix their historical differences.

Finally, this poll was taken in March, months after the historic December 2014 speech in which both governments declared their intentions to improve relations, so Obama has probably that going on for him.

I would say that this poll may be slightly bias. The Miami Herald explains that this was a “secret” poll taken from 1,200 adults without the knowledge and approval of the Cuban government. So one can only wonder if the support rates for Obama or disapproval for the Castros are in some way skewed even more because of the fear that some Cubans may have felt of getting into trouble for taking part of a secret poll.

Sebastian Arcos, Associate Director, Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University

Although I am not familiar with the methodology used in this poll –and therefore cannot take its validity for granted- I am not surprised by this particular result. Cubans see  in President Obama what they would like to see in their own leaders: Obama is young while most of the Cuban leadership is older than 80; Obama is black-like a majority of Cubans are- while the Cuban leadership is overwhelmingly white; Obama is accountable to the media and to a Congress controlled by the opposition party, while the Cuban leadership is accountable to no one; Obama is willing to give his enemies the benefit of the doubt, while the Cuban leadership calls its opponents “mercenaries” and “traitors” and will not even allow the Ladies in White to march in silence to church without harassment.

Cubans are tired of 57 years of sacrifices, scarcity, repression and propaganda. They need hope in their lives, and they are hopeful that the new policy implemented by President Obama will make their miserable lives a little easier. More than anything, that explains Obama’s popularity. Unfortunately, they will be disappointed.

VOXXI: US-Cuba relations after President Obama’s speech

"US-Cuba Relations After President Obama's Speech"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
December 17, 2014
Originally published: http://voxxi.com/2014/12/us-cuba-relations-obamas-speech/

Today, Wednesday 17, US-Cuba relations were shaken down to their core due to two recent events.

First there was a prisoner swap between Washington and Havana, which saw the release of U.S. citizen Alan Gross, detained in Cuba, and three Cubans detained in the U.S. Secondly, President Barack Obama gave a speech at noon which charts a new roadmap for US-Cuba relations.

Nevertheless, as is the nature of Washington-Havana relations over the past decades, how much of this is hyperbole and how many objectives ultimately materialize remains to be seen.

Alan Gross spent nearly five years as he was accused by the Cuban government of being a U.S. spy while he was working in Cuba for USAID. Similarly, the three Cubans are part of the “Cuban 5,” an alleged spy network set up by the Cuban government in the U.S. The five were arrested in 1998 and convicted in 2001, two were released years later but three remained in prison.

It’s not the objective of this article to discuss whether either Gross or the Cubans were actually involved in any kind of espionage activities. Unsurprisingly, both Havana and Washington argue that their citizens were wrongfully arrested.

The deal comes as a shock to everyone, as it was generally believed that neither government would release their respective prisoners anywhere in the near future.

Obama’s Speech

Shortly after the announcement of the Gross-Cuban 5 deal was made public, President Obama gave a brief but historical speech in which he outlines his vision for the future of US-Cuba relations.

The key word is that he seeks to “normalize” relations between the two governments.

The State Department has released a fact sheet of the speech’s key points, and we will briefly discuss a few important issues:

1. President Obama plans to participate in the 2015 Summit of the Americas, which will take place in Panama.

Historically, Washington has opposed Cuban participation in this summit. Case in point, the 2012 Summit in Colombia was generally an embarrassment for the host nation as the Colombian leadership had to “uninvite” Cuba in order to accommodate to Washington, which did not want a Cuban delegation present.

Meanwhile, throughout his speech, President Obama did not directly address the participation of the Cuban government in Panama, but rather said that “Cuban civil society must be allowed to participate […] consistent with the region’s commitments under the Inter-American Democratic Charter.”

In other words, Washington could still potentially block a Cuban official delegation from going to Panama.

2. President Obama managed to ease travel and trade restrictions to Cuba in 2011, however, only the U.S. Congress can terminate the embargo.

The fact to keep in mind is that after the recent Midterm elections, both chambers will now be controlled by the Republican Party. With conservatives like Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) among the Republican ranks, it is doubtful that this will happen. President Obama’s speech successfully placed pressure on the U.S. legislative body post-2015 to act on the future of US-Cuba relations.

3. Given the promises made by President Obama, which include that “licensed U.S. travelers to Cuba will be authorized to import $400 worth of goods from Cuba,” one must now ask, what will be the Cuban government’s next move?

Almost parallel to Obama’s speech, President Raul Castro also took to the airwaves to address his nation. First and foremost he praised the release of the Cuban 5 prisoners and he congratulated President Obama’s decision to agree to the swap.

He also “proposed” to the U.S. to adopt initiatives to improve relations in the spirt of the Charter of the United Nations. Nevertheless, Castro mentioned that in spite of the prison swap and renewed diplomatic ties, “the problem has not been solved.” The Cuban leader was referring to the embargo, which Castro said hurts Cuba’s economy and population.

While President Castro’s speech is similarly important, as it is not often that a Cuban leader praises a U.S. president, it remains to be seen if Havana will carry any new initiatives in the near future to keep the momentum going forward.

Relations between Cuba and the U.S. have been at a standstill for years and it seems that whenever there is a positive development, some kind of crisis occurs – case in point, the 2011 lifting of some restrictions was followed by the 2013 incident in which Cuba shipped weapons to North Korea.

For those who want to see US-Cuba relations improve, hopefully 2015 will be a year of positive breakthroughs between the two neighbors.

VOXXI: Russia gives Cuba debt bailout

Russia Gives Cuba Debt Bailout
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
December 13, 2013
Originally published: http://voxxi.com/2013/12/13/russia-gives-cuba-debt-bailout/

In a major development in Cuban foreign affairs (more meaningful than the recent feature story of a handshake between President Obama and President Castro), the Russian Federation has forgiven 90% of Cuba’s debt with Moscow. The agreement, which was announced this past Tuesday, December 10, means that the debt has been reduced from $32 billion to $3.2 billion.

Moscow-Havana Relation

Throughout the Cold War, the Cuban regime (then under the rule of the iconic Fidel Castro) was the Soviet Union’s closest ally in the Western Hemisphere, which translated into Moscow providing significant amounts of economic and military assistance to the Castro Regime.

Nevertheless, the dissolution of the USSR and its economic meltdown meant that Havana could no longer support the Cuban economy. Unsurprisingly, the Cuban economy collapsed and a harsh period of austerity followed. The 1990s are known in Cuba as the “lost decade.”

In recent years, Cuba’s economy has slowly improved while the Castro brothers, particularly Raul, have made timid attempts at liberalizing the economy, allowing for the growth of a middle class and the private ownership of businesses.

In 2007, this author published a comprehensive analysis in the academic journal Cuban Affairs, in which Cuban-Russian relations were discussed in the post-Cold War era. In the article, I argued that Russia’s relations with Cuba in modern times resembled a capitalist relationship more than an ideological one.

In other words, Russia will gladly provide Cuba with whatever goods and services it needs, so long as Havana has the finances to pay for them. The era of major financial assistance based on grounds of a common political ideology between the two countries is over.

Russian President Vladimir Putin spelled out as much in his July 2012 meeting with President Castro in Moscow.

Putin stated that “our relations have gone through various periods […] Today, they are becoming more pragmatic [...]” The lack of a common ideology notwithstanding, friendliness between the two governments does exist. Moreover, Russia wants to capitalize in the near future off the still Moscow-friendly (and Washington-indifferent) government in Havana.

This is perhaps best exemplified by the diplomatic meetings that Russian officials routinely make to the Caribbean island; take, for example, Putin’s visit to Cuba in 2001. This trip was memorable because the Russian leader closed Russia’s radar base in Lourdes, which had been a beacon of USSR espionage operations on the U.S. during the Cold War.

More recently, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev visited the island this past February, in which the debt deal was discussed.

Additionally, two Russian warships, the “Moskva” and the “Vice Admiral Kulakov,” docked in Havana’s port this past August as part of a mission to improve bilateral security ties.

As for trade initiatives, the Russian news agencyRussia Today praised bilateral ties, stating “Cuba remains a strong ally of Russia, with trade between the two countries at about $200 million last year.”

In other words, while Cuban-Russian relations over the past decade can at most be described as “modest,” as no major initiatives have been orchestrated (apart from the debt deal), Havana has not been fully forgotten by Moscow.

Future Expectations

The question now becomes: how should the Russian-Cuban agreement be interpreted? Cuba now has a decade to pay off the remaining three billion. Under the new debt deal, Cuba will have to pay $320 million annually for the next decade.

This amount is still quite significant for the Cuban economy. The country’s 2012 GDP was estimated at around $121 billion (according to the CIA Factbook), so this new debt is much more manageable.

To be fair, it should be noted that Cuba still owes billions in foreign debt to other nations and the Cuban government is trying to improve its international financial credibility by re-structuring its debt.

If Raul Castro does leave the Cuban presidency in 2018, thanks to these deals, he will leave the next generation of Cuban leaders a country in a better economic situation.

The Russian legislative will now have to vote on the deal, probably early in 2014. Given that President Putin seems to approve it, there is no reason to believe that Putin’s Duma will not follow suit.

With that said, it is necessary to wonder if this deal has additional elements that have not been made public. Offshore oil exploration is the first thing that comes to mind.

For years, several companies, including Russia’s Zarubezhneft, have been searching for oil in Cuba’s waters, but nothing has been found so far. It is widely regarded that if major quantities of oil are found, this could be a game changer for the Cuban economy and will make the company in charge of extraction very rich.

Russia’s pardoning of most of Cuba’s debt could be a sign of greater things to come and a more lasting Russian influence in the Caribbean state, apart from dollars and cents in debt.

VOXXI: The Snowden affair: Can the U.S. influence Cuban foreign policy?

The Snowden Affair: Can the U.S. influence Cuban foreign policy?
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
August 31, 2013
Originally published: http://www.voxxi.com/snowden-affair-cuban-foreign-policy/

It appears that the Latin American chapter of the Edward Snowden saga will not end anytime soon. New claims have surfaced about Snowden’s attempts to flee to Latin America in order to avoid extradition to the U.S.

According to a recent article by the Russian daily Kommersant, the U.S. may have been surprisingly successful in pressuring Cuba to deny entry to the NSA whistleblower. If this turns out to be true, it begs the question over whether, in 2013, the U.S. can exercise influence over Cuban foreign policy.

A brief summary of the Snowden saga

As Snowden hopped around the globe evading U.S. authorities, there was rampant speculation regarding which country would ultimately grant him asylum.

The international affair began when he fled from Hong Kong to Russia in late June. From there, it was expected that he would board an Aeroflot flight that would take him from Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport to Havana, Cuba, where he could not be detained by U.S. government officials.

But Snowden did not leave the airport, and Aeroflot flight SU150 departed Moscow with seat 17A, his scheduled seat on the aircraft, empty.

What followed was a game of guesswork regarding where Snowden would flee, as Latin American countries began offering themselves as safe destinations.

For some time, it was believed that he would travel to Ecuador. In addition, the governments of countries including Bolivia, Nicaragua, and Venezuela declared that they would accept Snowden, although, ultimately, he did not travel to any Latin American nation.

Ultimately, Snowden remained in a Moscow airport terminal from late June until August 1, when the Russian government finally granted the U.S. citizen temporary asylum, allowing him to leave the Sheremetyevo airport and reside in Moscow.

Changes in Cuba – U.S. Relations

Cuba is currently going through a transitional period as Raul Castro has stated that he will retire from the presidency in 2018. Unless another Castro steps into power, this will effectively end the Castro dynasty that has been at the helm of the island since the country’s 1958 revolution.

Changing of the guard in Havana is occurring alongside other progressive initiatives, like the slow liberalization of the Cuban economy.

At the same time, it is worth noting that the Obama Administration has taken steps to ease some of the embargo’s restrictions. Certainly, Obama has not closed the detention center in Guantanamo Bay as promised, but other positive developments have occurred. For example, in 2011, Obama relaxed some travel restrictions regarding traveling to the Caribbean island.

In addition, there has been some diplomatic rapprochement between the two governments. Namely, Washington and Havana held immigration talks this past July. The meeting was the first since January 2011, aiming to “discuss implementing 1994 and 1995 agreements that regulate travel between the United States and Cuba, known as the U.S.-Cuba Migration Accords.”

Can the U.S. Influence Cuba in 2013?

After these events, and in the context of evolving Washington-Havana relations, a Russian newspaper, Kommersant, recently published an article declaring that the U.S. had successfully pressured the Cuban government to deny Snowden’s entrance into the country.

The article is problematically filled with unnamed sources making verification of such an assertion next to impossible.

Verification aside, the Cuban government wasted little time in condemning the article. Specifically, longtime Cuban leader Fidel Castro published a commentary in the Reflexiones webpage of Cubadebate.cu on August 27.

In his article, Castro writes that he admires how valiant and just Snowden’s declarations were. He then wrote that the allegations by Kommersant are a lie and that the daily is a “mercenary” publication.

Given Washington’s desire to apprehend Snowden, it is logical to assume that it have warned nations not to give him asylum. For example, in mid-July, it was reported that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called Venezuelan Vice President Elías Jaua and warned him not to accept Snowden.

But Cuba under the Castros has always had a certain “mystique” of not bowing to U.S. wishes and openly challenging its influence in the Western Hemisphere during the Cold War (and in the post-Cold War world). This is best evidenced by the incidents like the Bay of Pigs invasion and the Missile Crisis.

In the conclusion of his Cubadebate.cu article, Castro declares, “It’s absolutely clear that the U.S. will always try to pressure Cuba […] but not for nothing we withstand 54 years defending – and whatever additional time is necessary – against the criminal economic blockade of the powerful empire.”

Following Cuba’s rich history of antagonism toward U.S. influence, the Castros would certainly be embarrassed to be caught agreeing to Washington’s whims.

Read more: http://www.voxxi.com/snowden-affair-cuban-foreign-policy/#ixzz2dauHZjoE

Interview: Voice of Russia: Cuban 5 member renounces US citizenship, will stay in Cuba

Cuban 5 member renounces US citizenship, will stay in Cuba
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Afternoon Show 
The Voice of Russia - American Edition - Radio
June 6, 2013
Available:  http://voicerussia.com/radio_broadcast/70924886/115240174.html

WASHINGTON – It’s official. Rene Gonzalez, a Cuban-American who served 13 years in a U.S. prison in a highly publicized espionage ring involving four others, has renounced his U.S. citizenship after returning to Cuba.

In 2001, a court convicted him and four other Cubans for conspiring to spy on the Cuban exile groups and U.S. military activities in Florida. Collectively the group has become known in the U.S. as the “Cuban Five.”

Host Rob Sachs spoke with Alejandro Sanchez, a research fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, to talk more about the Cuban Five.

Audio interview can be downloaded at: http://m.ruvr.ru/download/2013/06/07/1330146940/Rob_Sanchez_Cuba_AFT_060613.mp3 

BLOUIN: Cuba’s elections yield predictable results

Cuba's Elections Yield Predictable Results
W. Alex Sanchez
Blouin Beat: Politics
February 7, 2013
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatpolitics/2013/02/07/cubas-elections-yield-predictable-results/

This past Sunday, Cuba went to the polls to elect 612 delegates to the country’s National Assembly as well as representatives to regional assemblies. Discussing elections in Cuba is bizarre: there are no legal political parties on the island, other than the ruling Communist Party, which wrenches the word out of any meaningful context.  Still, one noteworthy event occurred:  Fidel Castro made his first public appearance in months to vote. The iconic ex-leader declared that “the people are truly revolutionary, they have really sacrificed. We don’t have to prove it, history will.”

Maybe so. And it’s true that the recent elections come against the backdrop of a series of political reforms Raul Castro has carried out, including clawbacks of government powers over the economy – with more than 400,000 Cubans now licensed to create their own small businesses, an attempt to improve the island’s economy and create a new middle class. Another reform that seized public attention was the government’s relaxation of its exit visa requirements. (Among the individuals that have successfully left the island has been Eliécer Avila, a prominent Cuban dissident leader.)

But all is not well with economic and political liberty on the Caribbean island. The Comisión Cubana de Derechos Humanos y Reconciliación Nacional (Cuban Commission for Human Rights and National Reconciliation, or CCDHRN), recently reported that 364 individuals were detained for political motives (i.e. committing acts of dissidence) in January alone. And prominent dissident blogger Yoani Sánchez received a visa to travel to Brazil in January under the relaxed requirements – but the government once again denied her request to temporarily leave the country. “It is occasion number 19 on which they have violated my right to enter and leave the country,” she wrote.

Long gone are the days of analysts speculating whether there could be some kind of social upheaval that would remove the Castro brothers and their allies from power by force. Now, the world seems to be waiting for a (one hopes) non-violent passing of the torch from the Castros  (both of whom are of advanced age, with Raul Castro at 81 years old and Fidel at 86). Under other circumstances, elections — even relatively circumscribed ones – can be at least a means to groom a new political class. Historically this has not been the case in the Caribbean state. In 2011, a promising shakeup of Raul Castro’s cabinet only brought more of the “old guard” to positions of power rather than new faces.  And – unsurprisingly – this latest round proved no different. TheCuban electoral commission reported that the results were satisfactory, with over seven million eligible voters going to the polls (86% of all of the island’s eligible voters). Media outlets reported that all 612 candidates for the National Assembly (and over 1,200 for regional legislatures) were elected.

Not that this outcome was ever much in doubt: remember, no legal parties exist that could field an alternative set of candidates. (Sanchez, with no small degree of sarcasm, tweeted: “#Cuba WHAT A SURPRISE! Out of 612 candidates to vote for in this “elections”, 612 were ratified.”) Critics argue, too, that whoever is elected to the National Assembly is largely inconsequential: only a handful of individuals at the top of the Cuban leadership continue to control key governmental and military posts.

So here we have an election without real parties or alternative candidates, which will grant no power to those who “win”, all taking place under a regime that regards a single blogger as so threatening as to be need to be prevented from leaving the country. Fidel Castro may praise the Cuban people’s revolutionary fervor – but the government he led for decades and which still bears his imprint is looking decidedly reactionary.

VOXXI: Cuba ends 2012 looking for oil and with Castro brothers still in power

Cuba ends 2012 looking for Oil and with Castro brothers still in power
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
December 26, 2012
Available: http://www.voxxi.com/cuba-2012-oil-castro-brothers-power/

The structure of the Cuban government is unlikely to change in 2013 as the Castro brothers appear to remain firmly in power and continue to search for oil.

Fidel Castro, the former president of Cuba who ruled the island for five decades, has been nominated to run for a position in the Cuban Parliament in the upcoming February 2013 elections. The move is largely a symbolic one, since Castro, despite no longer being head of state, still enjoys a great deal of influence within the Cuban government and is regularly consulted on state affairs. In other words, Castro hardly needs an official government position to be influential in Cuba’s decision-making process.

Regardless of this, given Castro’s frail state, it is unclear if the man will be able to actually take his seat in the National Assembly when elected (it is hard to imagine that he would not be). If he is not well enough to assume his parliamentary seat, there may be an agreement allowing him to choose someone to replace him.

Meanwhile, Fidel’s brother, Raul Castro, continues as president of the island nation, although that apparently has not prevented him from also being nominated as a municipal representative in the upcoming elections. The structure of the Cuban government is unlikely to change in 2013 as the Castro brothers, in spite of their advanced age (both are in their 80s), appear to remain firmly in power. It will be interesting to see what developments the New Year brings to the island. Of particular interest are economic and international affairs, particularly those regarding the U.S.

Castro brothers, economics and the continuous search for oil

The nomination of the Castro brothers to the Cuban Parliament, considering that they have jointly ruled the island since the 1950s, is slightly bizarre to say the least. Nevertheless, it is clear that the island, under Raul Castro’s rule, has evolved from Fidel’s Cuba. This is particularly true when it comes to the economy. Under Raul, the island’s Communist government has taken some steps to modernize its socialist economy, particularly by allowing the appearance of privately owned businesses. The head of state has declared that “today, nearly 40 thousand Cubans have licenses to have autonomous work or small businesses.”

An interesting development that may further affect the Cuban economy is the plan announced by the Russian oil company Zarubezhneft to utilize a Norwegian oil platform as means of continuing to search for deep-water oil deposits in the Cuban sea. For years there have been diverse reports about exactly how much oil Cuba possesses, but so far the numerous explorations have yet to find wells that yield commercially viable quantities of the liquid gold. If Cuba were ever able to actually find and produce massive quantities of oil (it claims to have up to 20 billion barrels while other analyses give a more modest number) this would be a huge turning point for the Cuban economy. But until this happens, the island will remain at the mercy of Venezuela, which, under Hugo Chavez’s rule, has essentially given thousands of barrels of oil to the island as a gift.

This brings up another issue as President Chavez’ deteriorating health, exemplified by his recent trip to Cuba for a new operation to deal with his cancer, should have put the Cuban government on alert as a non-Chavez government may not be so willing to essentially give away oil. Fortunately for Havana, Chavez’s health seems to be improving, which means that Cuba will continue to enjoy more essentially-free Venezuelan oil during the immediate future, at least until it discovers some of its own.

Relations with the US have yet to improve

Even though U.S. President Barack Obama has not fully lifted the embargo on the island during his first term in office, many Cubans and Americans hope that he will do so during his second term. Such a development would go a long way in improving U.S. diplomacy, and not only with Cuba but also with the rest of Latin America. During the Summit of the Americas held in Cartagena, Colombia, several heads of states protested the fact that Cuba had not been invited to take part in the high-level meeting because Washington opposed their participation. Despite the positive benefits that the United States would garner from such a move, it is still unlikely that President Obama will fully lift the embargo due to congressional political barriers.

During the 2012 presidential campaign, Obama stated during an interview with The Daily Show with Jon Stewart that he still had his mind set on closing the U.S. naval base detention facility in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. While not related with the embargo, closing Guantanamo’s controversial prison would be a huge victory for the Obama administration and be influential for U.S.-Cuban relations.

Cuba in 2013

2013 should be an interesting year for Cuba. If the Russian drilling team finally finds enough oil to make it commercially viable to extract, it would signify a critical influx of cash into the Cuban economy. This development, which may be a long shot since past drilling explorations have not been successful, comes at an important time for the island. The Castro brothers remain in power, but the historically protective and state-run Cuban economy continues to liberalize, albeit at a snail’s pace.

Fortunately for the Cuban government, it will continue to enjoy several regional allies thanks to Hugo Chávez’s improving health (which will mean more oil to Cuba ) and the near certainty that leftist Rafael Correa will be re-elected in Ecuador’s 2013 Presidential election. Regarding the U.S., Obama’s re-election might signal improved relations, but Havana is going to have to do its part as well. Liberalizing the economy is important, but so is stopping unwarranted arrests such as that of the 19 opposition activists, members of the Damas de Blanco (Ladies in White), who were arrested in March or theactivists that were recently detained in early December. The discovery of oil, the emergence of privately-owned businesses and better diplomatic relations with its neighbors (i.e. Washington) are all important issues for Havana, but so should be maintaining a healthy relationship between the government and the citizenry.

Read more: http://www.voxxi.com/cuba-2012-oil-castro-brothers-power/#ixzz2GGfXXbmE