Showing posts with label paraguay. Show all posts
Showing posts with label paraguay. Show all posts

Thursday, April 23, 2026

CSIS: "Beyond Venezuela and Cuba: The U.S. Military’s Future Operations in the Western Hemisphere "

 


 "Beyond Venezuela and Cuba: The U.S. Military’s Future Operations in the Western Hemisphere"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Americas Program

Center for Strategic and International Studies

23 April, 2026

Published: https://www.csis.org/analysis/beyond-venezuela-and-cuba-us-militarys-future-operations-western-hemisphere 

After Operation Absolute Resolve, which resulted in the extraction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the White House is increasing pressure on Cuba for some type of political change. Whether the U.S. military will also be deployed in some capacity to the Caribbean island remains to be seen; much will depend on a potential renewed conflict with Iran.

While these three hotspots continue to make headlines, the U.S. military is also expanding its presence across Latin America and the Caribbean. Combating drug-trafficking will continue to be a priority for Washington, and the U.S. military will be heavily involved in this mission.

 

Friday, March 27, 2026

Zona Militar: "EagleNXT will deliver drones to the US Army. Will Latin America be next?" / "EagleNXT entregará nuevos drones eBee Vision al Ejército de EE.UU.: ¿América Latina será el próximo paso?"

 

 


 "EagleNXT will deliver drones to the US Army. Will Latin America be next?"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Zona Militar

27 March, 2026 

 Published: https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2026/03/27/eaglenxt-will-deliver-drones-to-the-us-army-will-latin-america-be-next/

The US defense company EagleNXT has announced a contract with the US Army to deliver its eBee Vision drone, designed for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) operations as well as training missions. Specifically, the company will supply two drones for “advanced training and operator readiness programs.” Zona Militar had an exclusive conversation with Bill Irby, CEO of EagleNXT, about the company’s current and future plans.

 

"EagleNXT entregará nuevos drones eBee Vision al Ejército de EE.UU.: ¿América Latina será el próximo paso?"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Zona Militar

27 de Marzo del 2026 

Publicado:  https://www.zona-militar.com/2026/03/27/eaglenxt-entregara-nuevos-drones-ebee-vision-al-ejercito-de-ee-uu-america-latina-sera-el-proximo-paso/


La empresa de defensa estadounidense EagleNXT ha anunciado un contrato con el Ejército de los Estados Unidos para entregar su drone eBee Vision, diseñado para operaciones de inteligencia, vigilancia y reconocimiento (ISR), así como para misiones de entrenamiento. Específicamente, la compañía suministrará dos drones para “programas avanzados de entrenamiento y preparación de operadores”. Zona Militar mantuvo una conversación exclusiva con Bill Irby, CEO de EagleNXT, sobre los planes actuales y futuros de la empresa. 

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Janes: "Paraguay accepts first four Embraer A-29 Super Tucanos from 2024 order"

 


"Paraguay accepts first four Embraer A-29 Super Tucanos from 2024 order"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Janes

3 July 2025

Published: https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/industry/paraguay-accepts-first-four-embraer-a-29-super-tucanos-from-2024-order

The Paraguayan Air Force (FAP) received the first four of six Embraer A-29 Super Tucano light attack and trainer aircraft on 30 June. The Paraguayan government announced the acquisition of six Super Tucanos in July 2024, intended to revamp the FAP's combat fleet.

 

 

Monday, January 13, 2025

Breaking Defense: "South American nations add ‘upgrading air forces’ to 2025 resolutions "

 

 

"South American nations add ‘upgrading air forces’ to 2025 resolution"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Air Warfare

Breaking Defense

13 January, 2025

Published: https://breakingdefense.com/2025/01/south-american-nations-add-upgrading-air-forces-to-2025-resolutions/ 

As several countries pursue new fighter jets, experts told Breaking Defense it’s more about avoiding obsolescence than a southern arms race. 

WASHINGTON — In late December, the first F-16 Block 10 aircraft for Argentina’s Air Force arrived in the country in what Minister of Defense Luis Petri hailed as the “most important” acquisition since the nation’s “return to democracy” in 1982.

 

 

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Shephard Media: "Embraer’s Millennium and Super Tucanos generate new customers"

 


"Embraer’s Millennium and Super Tucanos generate new customers"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Air Warfare

Shephard Media

19 September 2024

Originally published: https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/air-warfare/embraers-millenium-and-super-tucanos-generate-new-customers/

Described as a “true” multi-role aircraft, Embraer has set an aim for the C-390 Millennium to be the cornerstone for different operations, from HA/DR to combat missions.

Tuesday, August 1, 2023

Geopolitical Monitor: Paraguay and Titanium: Failure to Launch?

 

"Paraguay and Titanium: Failure to Launch?"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Situation Reports

Geopolitical Monitor 

01 August, 2023

Originally published: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/paraguay-and-titanium-failure-to-launch/

“Paraguay will become the center of global titanium production,” was the headline of a November 2010 article in the BBC. Almost a decade and a half later, titanium production in Paraguay has yet to begin. Even more, by the own admittance of the country’s authorities, they are not sure how much titanium there is in the Alto Paraná department, where the deposits are located. Prospecting continues, but no public plans or timelines are available regarding when titanium production will commence, if ever.

Continue reading...

Thursday, May 4, 2023

Shephard Media: Paraguay shows interest in Argentine Malvina trainer aircraft

 

"Paraguay shows interest in Argentine Malvina trainer aircraft"

 Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Training

4 May, 2023

Shephard Media

Originally published: https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/training-simulation/paraguay-shows-interest-in-argentine-trainer-aircraft/

Paraguay’s Air Force is looking to renew its fixed-wing training fleet by turning to a neighbouring supplier, having signed a declaration of interest in the Argentinian IA-100 Malvina.

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Sunday, April 30, 2023

Militant Wire: The Paraguayan People’s Army: South America’s Obscure, but Resilient, Insurgent Movement

 


 

"The Paraguayan People’s Army: South America’s Obscure, but Resilient, Insurgent Movement"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Analysis

Militant Wire

29 April, 2023

Originally published: https://www.militantwire.com/p/the-paraguayan-peoples-army-south

Paraguay is scheduled to hold general elections this coming Sunday, 30 April. The next leader of the landlocked South American nation will have several issues to address; one critical security challenge is the guerrilla movement known as the Paraguayan People’s Army (Ejército del Pueblo Paraguayo: EPP).

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Tuesday, April 4, 2023

Shephard Media: "Paraguay receives new armoured vehicles to take fight to guerilla forces"

 


"Paraguay receives new armoured vehicles to take fight to guerilla forces"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Land Warfare

Shephard Media

4 April 2023

Originally published: https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/landwarfareintl/paraguay-receives-new-armoured-vehicles-to-take-fight-to-guerilla-forces/

New armoured vehicles acquired by the Paraguayan military will protect personnel on operations against Paraguayan People’s Army (EPP) guerrillas.

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Saturday, January 11, 2020

IPD: Iran v. the United States: Should Latin America be Concerned?

"Iran v. the United States: Should Latin America be Concerned?"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez and Scott Morgan
International Policy Digest
World
January 10, 2020
Originally published: https://intpolicydigest.org/2020/01/10/iran-v-the-united-states-should-latin-america-be-concerned/


Since the death of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani on January 3rd as a result of an airstrike at the Baghdad International Airport, Iraq, there has been great consternation about how (and when) will Iran retaliate.

Apart from the recent attack against U.S. military facilities in Iraq, it is widely assumed that Tehran’s future actions move will take place in a geographically neighboring area (namely the Middle East and North Africa) against other American interests. However, there is a certain part of the world where there is an Iranian presence that should not be overlooked in determining where the counterstrike will take place.


The views expressed in this article are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of any institutions with which the authors are associated.




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Monday, March 19, 2018

Providence: Paraguay’s EPP Insurgency Frees Mennonite Hostages: An Analysis

"Paraguay’s EPP Insurgency Frees Mennonite Hostages: An Analysis"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Providence: A Journal of Christianity and American Foreign Policy
1 March, 2018
Originally published: https://providencemag.com/2018/03/paraguays-epp-insurgency-frees-mennonite-hostages-analysis/

On February 5, Bernhard Blatz and Franz Hiebert, two Mennonites kidnapped by the Ejercito del Pueblo Paraguayo (Paraguayan People’s Army, or EPP), were finally freed. The EPP, a Paraguayan terrorist organization, is well known for its operations against Paraguay’s civilians and security forces, and the country’s Mennonite community has become a particular target of its violence, adding a new dimension to the internal conflict of this land-locked South American nation.
This development raises an important question: how should the Paraguayan government address the EPP’s threat to security?

A Brief History of the EPP
The violent movement adopted the name EPP in 2008, though in reality its origins trace back to the early 1990s when it was a splinter group of the Paraguayan Marxist organization Partido Patria Libre (Free Fatherland Party, or PPL).

The EPP claims to have a Marxist Leninist ideology and also glorifies Paraguayan heroes like José Gaspar Rodríguez de Francia and Francisco Solano Lopez. Estimates of the movement’s strength vary greatly, though it probably has only a few dozen fighters who operate in the northern regions of the country close to the border with Brazil—i.e., Amambay, Concepción, and San Pedro departments.

While the group is not strong enough to carry out a successful regime change, over the past decade the EPP has carried out robberies, attacks on property, and other attacks against security forces and civilians alike. The most high-profile murder attributed to the group is that of Cecilia Cubas, daughter of former Paraguayan President Raul Cubas. She was kidnapped in late 2004, and her body was found in early 2005, even after a ransom was paid. While the EPP did not officially exist at the time as an organization, the crime is attributed to individuals who would later form the terrorist movement. More recently, the EPP ambushed a military patrol in August 2016, killing eight troops. Furthermore, in August 2015 it kidnapped Abraham Fehr, who died in captivity—his remains were located earlier this year. According to a January 2018 article by the news agency Infobae.com, since 2008 the EPP is accused of the deaths of 21 armed forces personnel, 13 police officers, and 27 civilians.

Such violence has prompted the Paraguayan government to implement an increasingly larger response. Now a joint task force (Fuerza de Tarea Conjunta, or FTC), a combination of units from the police and military, has been deployed to combat the EPP. Paraguayan media has been fairly critical of the FTC, as it has been unable to defeat the insurgents. For instance, in 2015, before the 2016 ambush, the Paraguayan daily ABC published an article boldly titled “The EPP is no longer afraid of the FTC.”

This development deserves more discussion. Is it desirable or even ethical for Asuncion to continue deploying the country’s armed forces for internal security operations? After all, Latin America has a troubling record, to put it mildly, when it comes to security forces, particularly armies, committing human rights abuses when deployed to crack down on insurgent movements or respond to other domestic security threats. The Central American wars during the Cold War are a prime example of this problem.

The conundrum that the Paraguayan government faces is choosing one of two evils. Either it lets the police handle the EPP, which has not worked so far as evidenced by ongoing attacks and violence, or Asuncion deploys the armed forces, which could risk greater human rights abuses and repression. A government’s duty is to protect the nation’s population, but is the risk of inevitable added violence, even if meant to stop the EPP, in the best interest of Paraguay’s population?

The Mennonites as a Target
It is important to highlight that EPP insurgents have particularly targeted Paraguay’s Mennonite community, as the 2017 kidnappings (in separate incidents) of Franz Hiebert and Father Bernard Blatz and the 2015 kidnapping of the late Abraham Fehr exemplify.

Additionally, Mennonite communities in Paraguay have reported to local media that they are forced to pay EPP insurgents a “revolutionary tax” (in other words, they are the victims of extortion) and follow their orders. For example, the Paraguayan news agency Ultima Hora reported in mid-December 2017 that Mennonite communities gave food to local non-Mennonite towns as part of the negotiations to free Hiebert and Blatz. Moreover, the two individuals’ families reportedly paid USD$750,000 and USD$500,000 in ransoms. This development calls into question, once again, the FTC’s effectiveness as it was unable to locate and free the hostages.

It is unclear to me if the Mennonites are being specifically targeted because of their religious beliefs or because they are civilians living in areas where the EPP operates and security forces do not have a strong presence. I would cautiously theorize that this situation may be a combination of both theories. After all, other Latin American insurgent groups routinely exploit defenseless and isolated populations to utilize them as slave labor or fighters.

Additionally, the insurgents’ extreme ideologies put them in direct confrontation with religious beliefs. This was perhaps best exemplified in Peru during the 1980s and 1990s when the terrorist movement Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path, or SL) targeted religious leaders. Deaths caused by SL include the 1991 murders of Franciscan priests Miguel Tomaszek and Zbigniew Strzalkowski from Poland and Alessandro Dordi from Italy. Sendero also targeted Peru’s Evangelical community—as the 1991 massacre of 36 Evangelicals in Ccano, Ayacucho, horrifically demonstrated.

Final Thoughts
In the past decade, the Paraguayan People’s Army has carried out several operations that range from destroying property and conducting robberies, to attacking Paraguay’s defense and security forces. While this group is not strong enough for a successful regime-change operation against Asuncion, recent developments, like the 2016 ambush of a military patrol and Abraham Fehr’s death in captivity, raise the question of whether the internal deployment of Paraguay’s military is morally advisable, in spite of the potential for further human rights abuses.

Moreover, the EPP appears to have singled out the country’s Mennonite community for abuses. While a direct link between this group’s religious beliefs with the insurgents’ ideology is not clear, it is very likely the case.
Without a doubt, the rise of the EPP is a major security problem for Paraguay, and it must be defeated with a strategy that includes foresight, knowledge, and wisdom.
—
W. Alejandro Sanchez is a researcher who focuses on geopolitical, military, and cybersecurity issues in the Western Hemisphere. Follow him on Twitter: @W_Alex_Sanchez.
The views presented in this essay are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of any institutions with which the author is associated.

Monday, February 9, 2015

Blouin Beat: World - Pope to visit Latin America in 2015 amid joy, tensions


"Pope to visit Latin America in 2015 amid joy, tensions"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin Beat: World
February 9, 2015
Originally publihsed: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2015/02/09/pope-to-visit-latin-america-in-2015-amid-joy-tensions/ 


As the first ever pontiff from Latin America, Pope Francis of Argentina is expected to make frequent visits to the region in the coming years. Given recent developments, this hypothesis will become a reality.

Pope Francis recently finished a tour of Sri Lanka and the Philippines, where he was enthusiastically received in Colombo and Manila by millions of followers. Now, the Vatican has confirmed that he will visit three Latin American countries this year: Bolivia, Ecuador and Paraguay, though it is unclear when this trip will take place. According to the Catholic News Agency, which first broke the story, the pontiff is expected to visit the U.S. (namely Washington D.C., Philadelphia and New York) for a week in late September of this year. It would make sense that he would take advantage of already being in the Western Hemisphere and continue his tour south. (Similarly, it is expected that he will visit his native Argentina as well as Chile and Uruguaysometime in 2016).
Given that Latin America is one of the last bastions of ardent Catholicism in the world, it’s no surprise that this Pope, a Latin American himself, will want to tour the region to reinvigorate the Catholic Church.
With that said, it is worth noting one country that has not been mentioned (so far) in the pontiff’s schedule: El Salvador. On Tuesday, February 3, Pope Francis approved the beatification of the late Archbishop Oscar Arnulfo Romero from El Salvador. Romero was murdered in March 1980 by a death squad while celebrating a mass; his assassination is regarded as the opening act of the Central American country’s civil war, which lasted until 1992 and killed around 75,000 individuals. (Decades later, no one has been prosecuted for Romero’s murder).
There has been a broad support, not just in El Salvador but also internationally, for Romero to become a martyr due to his acts of charity while he was alive and his iconic death. Moreover, Pope Francis is known for supporting Romero’s beatification. According to the Catholic News Agency, on February 3 Pope Francis and Cardinal Angelo Amato, prefect of the Congregation for the Causes of Saints, had a meeting during which the pontiff “authorized the promulgation of decrees recognizing the martyrdom of [Romero], paving the way for his beatification, as well as the martyrdom of three priests in Peru.”
Given this historical decision, it is odd that Pope Francis has chosen not to visit El Salvador this year. Nevertheless, it is worth stressing that a date for the ceremony that will make Archbishop Romero a martyr has yet to be announced, meaning it is conceivable that the pontiff could make a brief stopover in El Salvador once the logistics of the ceremony are announced.
On the other hand, while a visit to Central America by Pope Francis has yet to be determined, the Bolivian government is pleased that the pontiff will visit the land-locked South American state this year. Bolivian President Evo Morales, who was recently re-elected for a new presidential term, will certainly utilize the Pope’s visit to increase morale among his 10 million compatriots, given that Bolivia’s economy will likely suffer this year in the wake of falling international oil prices and declining mineral exports.
Finally, one issue about the Pope’s upcoming visit to Bolivia deserves to be highlighted: neighboring Chile does not seem to be pleased with the visit. Bolivia and Chile have been at odds for over a century, since the 19th century War of the Pacific, in which Chile (with military support from the British Empire) annexed Bolivia’s coastal territories. To this day, Bolivia demands sea access, and to this end the Bolivian government has taken Chile to the International Court of Justice. Within this context, former Chilean President Eduardo Frei (1994-2000) requested that the Bolivian government not “politicize” the visit or raise the Bolivian-Chilean dispute with the pontiff. In response, President Morales declared that Pope Francis was coming to Bolivia solely for religious, not political, motives. The Bolivian head of state also added, “if Chile is afraid, that is their problem.”
Without a doubt, a papal visit is reason for the many Catholic nations in the Western Hemisphere to rejoice. Nevertheless, Latin American domestic politics as well as regional geopolitics are complex matters and are likely to rise to the surface. Even a visit by a pontiff who wants global peace and harmony can easily be politicized.

Monday, February 2, 2015

COHA: WORST CASE SCENARIO: THE CRIMINAL USE OF DRONES


"Worst Case Scenario: The Criminal Use of Drones"
W. Alejandro Sanchez & Cameron McKibben
Commentary - Council on Hemispheric Affairs
February 2, 2015
Originally published: http://www.coha.org/worst-case-scenario-the-criminal-use-of-drones/


By: Alejandro Sanchez, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, and Cameron McKibben, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs.
If 2014 was the year of the drone in Latin America, 2015 is looking to be very much the same.[i] However, the proliferation of drone usage may become a concern throughout the Western Hemisphere, particularly in Mexico and the United States, as drones have found a new investor south of the U.S. border: drug traffickers. But what is the potential for drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) to acquire drones capable of effectively smuggling and eluding authorities? As one of the most popular Christmas gifts this past year, civilian drones are readily available to the public. [ii]
The Rise of the Terror Drone?
In the U.S., the worst possible scenario of how drones can be utilized for violent outcomes in sensitive locations took a new turn on January 26, when a small drone crashed on the lawn of the White House. While this incident (involving an inebriated government employee) seems to have just been an accident, it begins to illuminate just how easily drones can fly into restricted areas. The event also provokes worries over how destructive these machines can be if they were to be used as “terror drones,” and loaded with some sort of explosive. Additionally, it is important to remember that this is not the first time that drones have entered no-fly zones. Over the past year, unauthorized drones have flown close to other sensitive targets, like nuclear power plants in France and Belgium. So far, no one has been detained for these incidents, and these could have been staged by some harmless environmental group. Nevertheless, given the recent attacks against the Charlie Hebdo satirical magazine in France and the terrorist attacks in the UK and Spain over the past decade, one major concern is that terror drones could be use by an extremist Islamic militant organization for some kind of terrorist operation.
The idea that terrorist movements will begin to utilize drones is no longer a hypothetical scenario, but a grim reality. For example, the global media has reported that ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) has procured a drone and is using it to conduct reconnaissance and aid in launching ground attacks on the Syrian military.[iii] Likewise, it is believed that groups like Hamas and Hezbollah also possess drones.
A word of caution is necessary. The drones used by the aforementioned militant movements are generally believed to be very crude models, nothing more than a small plane or helicopter with a video camera and GPS attached. Such aircraft cannot be compared to the capabilities of US or Israeli drones like the NightEagle or ScanEagle, much less armed drones like the Predators. Nevertheless, even the most rudimentary drone can serve as an effective “eye in the sky” that would provide invaluable intelligence information to a terrorist movement. Moreover, in the case of Israel, one genuine fear is that Hezbollah’s drones can be adapted as “suicide drones” – namely that they can be loaded with explosives so they would cause maximum damage if they collide against an Israeli military (or civilian) facility.[iv]
Even criminals that do not necessarily belong to some major terrorist or criminal network can use drones for smuggling. This has already been the case in the U.S. and Australia.[v] For example, individuals have already used small drones to try to smuggle marijuana, cell phones, and other contraband into prisons in South Carolina and Georgia. These attempts were discovered because the drones failed to cross over the fence line and crashed (one likely reason being that they were carrying too much weight for the machine to fly properly), but there could certainly be other instances when drones were able to fly over a prison fence, were unloaded by prisoners, and then managed to fly back unnoticed.
As UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) are now coming into the hands of criminals and terrorist movements across the world, either for transportation of contraband or surveillance purposes, it should come as little surprise that drones are now beginning to be utilized by Latin American DTOs. At this point we must ask ourselves, what are the implications for the use of drones by these Latin American illicit groups?
Drones in Latin America
Drug smuggling across the U.S.-Mexican border via drones has been recorded since 2010. This raises the question of what the potential for their expanded use by DTOs to smuggle their cargoes across borders may be. Not only does this affect Mexico and the U.S., but the use of drones should also be a concern for areas in which Mexican DTOs operate, notably in Central America.
So far, there have been limited reports regarding drones being utilized for criminal or terrorist activities in Latin America, but such use seems like a realistic development in the near future. Case in point, there is now the serious concern over drone usage by Mexican DTOs. A crashed UAV, a type of helicopter, was recovered in Tijuana, Mexico, carrying about six pounds (over three kilograms) of methamphetamine.[vi] It is likely that drones will continue to be utilized for moving small quantities of drugs (or other contraband) within Mexican territory or over the U.S. border. Nevertheless, given the fact that Mexican cartels have significant wealth stemming from an almost endless supply of drugs (ranging from cocaine to meth to marijuana), it is not shocking to assume that these DTOs may continue to resort to drones in the future as cheap vehicle to thwart border security measures.
As for drones being used to smuggle contraband into prisons, this is a particularly worrisome development given that prison conditions in countries like Mexico, Peru, Bolivia and throughout Central America are notorious for internal violence and almost routine escape attempts.
The use of drones extends beyond mere transportation of drugs over the border. There are also the aforementioned reports of using drones to smuggle materials into prisons. This can be especially disconcerting in Mexico, where (attempted) prison breakouts are fairly common. The judicial systems in these countries are already weak regarding convictions and penal overpopulation. Moreover, throughout Latin American prisons, it is often the inmates that actually control the prisons, while correction guards mainly focus on controlling the walls to keep the inmates from escaping.[vii]
While regional penal security forces have made progress in cracking down on smuggling, the examples of Georgia and South Carolina raise concerns that criminals might utilize drones to penetrate Latin American prisons. Such a scenario could end in the smuggling of more drugs, cell phones, and more dangerous cargoes like weapons to the inmate population, prompting further violence, either between prisoners or to facilitate mass escape attempts.
Finally, it is necessary to explore whether Latin American DTOs or terrorist movements could utilize terror drones for further types of aerial attacks (as Israel fears vis-à-vis Hezbollah) in countries besides Mexico. Due to space limitations, we will focus on the current major insurgent movements and drug cartels that already operate in the region.
  1. Shining Path (Peru). The group has around 300 members, which are split into two factions and operate out of the Peruvian highlands. The group has suffered the loss of all of its senior leadership thanks to recent operations by the Peruvian military.[viii] At this point, it is unlikely that Shining Path has the capability or resources to acquire or deploy terror drones.
  2. Paraguayan People’s Army (Ejército del Pueblo Paraguayo- Paraguay). This group is rumored to have around 50 members, with its modus operandi revolving around kidnappings, attacking isolated police posts and low-scale bombings. The group’s most recent attack on January 28 involved the kidnapping and murder of two cattle ranchers in the Concepcion department.[ix] Like Shining Path, it is unlikely that the group has the capability or resources to obtain drones.
  3. FARC and ELN (Colombia). Both groups are still strong, militarily speaking. The FARC, for example, is thought to have around 8,000 troops, and the group certainly profits enough from drug trafficking, extortion and racketeering to obtain some crude drone models for surveillance operations. With that said, both the FARC and ELN are currently involved in peace negotiations with the Colombian government. In spite of the possibility that negotiations between the groups, as well as the FARC’s unilateral ceasefire, will be successful, it is realistic to believe that these groups could reorganize themselves should negotiations fail. Drones could be utilized the event that this worst-case scenario occurs.[x]
The Future: The Flight of the Terror Drone
Based upon the tactical practicality of drones to execute terrorist and illicit operations, the proliferation of UAV use by such organizations should be regarded as a realistic possibility in the near future. Additionally, given the illicit wealth and political capital (through corruption) that these groups can mobilize, a significant risk is manifested in their ability to surpass the technology of early rudimentary designs and models. This is particularly true in regards to the Latin American drug trade, a profit-maximizing environment, in which the DTOs have a history of gaining exorbitant wealth, allowing them to penetrate all levels of government (including security agencies) with relative ease.
The Mexican DTOs have already invested in and utilized drones in order to smuggle drugs, and these UAVs could potentially be utilized to conduct surveillance. It is likely that the FARC could develop similar capabilities. These entities certainly have the funds to acquire them, as exemplified by the construction of miniature narco-submarines, costing around $5 million USD, which have been utilized to transport hundreds of kilograms of drugs up the Caribbean coast.[xi] If nothing else, the existence of narco-subs exemplifies the interest of drug cartels in new technologies to avoid detection while smuggling drugs.
On the potential for terror drones, it is certainly alarming and should not be dismissed. Radical movements like Shining Path and the FARC have a history of utilizing explosive devices to carry out terror attacks. For example, Shining Path’s use of “car bombs” in the 1980s and early 1990s during Peru’s civil war (like the car bomb that exploded in Tarata Street in downtown Lima in 1992, killing 25 and injuring over 200).[xii] Thus, there is certainly no lack of precedent of these groups utilizing technology to carry out attacks. Thus, it is not unthinkable that these, or new groups, could attempt to construct a “terror drone.” Nevertheless, as previously mentioned, Shining Path is currently a defunct (or at least dying) entity, so it is unlikely that the Peruvian insurgents have the expertise to fabricate a “terror drone.”
At the time of this writing, there have been no reports of UAVs being utilized to commit violence. Still, this analysis would argue that if any Latin American criminal organization could attempt to build a terror drone in the near future, it would be the Mexican DTOs or the FARC. Mexican DTOs operate in a deteriorating security environment in which violence has become commonplace, and for the FARC, in the event of failed peace negotiations, terror drones could be useful to a revival of their goals.
Revolutionary and organized crime groups are commonplace throughout Latin American countries, and it would be unreasonable not to consider the potential for new groups to emerge. However, groups that are linked to state sponsorship or can penetrate state-based development programs have the highest potential for technology to transfer to them. The use of UAVs by illicit and non-state actors is already occurring, and will likely expand in the near future – to aid in drug smuggling, intelligence gathering, or committing violence. Terror drones and UAVs used for more conventional illegal purposes may prove to be a new security threat in the future, and sooner rather than later, they may fly over Latin American airspace.
By: Alejandro Sanchez, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, and Cameron McKibben, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs.
Please accept this article as a free contribution from COHA, but if re-posting, please afford authorial and institutional attribution. Exclusive rights can be negotiated. For additional news or analysis on Latin America, please go to: Latin News.
Featured image by: David Rodriguez Martin. “Viva la Habana.” Taken on July 29, 2013. Taken from: https://www.flickr.com/photos/trotaparamos/13546582985/in/photolist-jbVCyB-mD4MaB-pKP3EZ-ei1iWe-pJFsJk-qDCM2T-qMfJ5C-pMh1hs-nfqf41-oeAee1-qrrKnt-6k1FcA-6Rr8H2-kLbSN1-hYQJ1r-7MBfCE-fukpy-o3mrPi-n3TU3P-nfLraF-aCnpCz-nfN4ag-8G9QeN-mQrPM-jiNUfr-nLb438-nYQEZ2-e2jFZR-bVL5RJ-d37DaL-8rz1tY-7Pzmf2-o5qWJe-hFUCLJ-p3wtzD-fV4AFa-9p9v9o-8fm22t-fV4AzZ-dnWDiX-9hZowj-78giQL-chvytS-oRRB4a-fF81HV-9p4YkB-fu3EL7-8Kge5V-8fm1FF-dEA6uf 
References:
[i] W. Alejandro Sanchez, “Lift Off: Drone Usage in Latin America Takes Flight,” Council on Hemispheric Affairs, accessed January 23, 2015, http://www.coha.org/lift-off-drone-usage-in-latin-america-takes-flight/.
[ii] Alex Renton, “Christmas gift: attack of the drones,” The Guardian, accessed January 30, 2014, http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/nov/23/toy-drones-christmas-present-hobby.
[iii] Geoff Earle and Bruce Golding, “ISIS using surveillance drones to target Syrian military,” New York Post, accessed January 26,2015, http://nypost.com/2014/08/26/isis-using-surveillance-drones-to-target-syrian-military/.
[iv] Peter Bergen & Emily Schneider, “ Now ISIS has Drones?” CNN.com, Opinion, accessed January 30, 2015,  http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/24/opinion/bergen-schneider-drones-isis/.
[v] “Australia: Drone ‘used to carry drugs near prison,’” BBC News, accessed January 23, 2014, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26511740; Harriet McLeod, “Crashed drone carried contraband aimed at South Carolina prison,” Reuters, accessed January 26, 2015,http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/31/us-usa-southcarolina-drones-idUSKBN0G002020140731.
[vi] “Drone carrying drugs crashes near US-Mexico border,” BBC News, accessed January 23, 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-30931367.
[vii] “Investigan cárcel ‘controlada por presos’ en Brasil,: BBC Mundo, accessed January 30, 2015, http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/america_latina/2010/08/100804_brasil_carcel_controlada_por_presos_lav.shtml – Also see: “Mas de la mitad de las cárceles en Mexico es controlada por los presos,”RT Actualidad, accessed January 30, 2015 http://actualidad.rt.com/sociedad/view/111860-carceles-mexico-controlada-presos – also see Dario Mizrahi, “Las cárceles en America Latina, autenticas escuelas del delito,”Infobae.com, accessed January 30, 2015 http://www.infobae.com/2013/11/17/1524235-las-carceles-america-latina-autenticas-escuelas-del-delito.
[viii] W. Alejandro Sanchez, “Peru: Shining Parth’s Last Major leader, Artemio, has been Captured,” Council on Hemispheric Affairs, Report, accessed January 30, 2015http://www.coha.org/peru-shining-path%E2%80%99s-last-major-leader-artemio-has-been-captured/.
[ix] “EPP strikes again in Paraguay with kidnapping and murder,” Latin News, Main Briefing.
[x] “FARC demands Colombia stop ceasefire ‘abuse,’” AFP, accessed January 30, 2015, http://news.yahoo.com/farc-demands-colombia-stop-ceasefire-abuse-224933015.html.
[xi] Dane Schiller, “Experts reveal secrets of narco sub,” Houston Chronicle, accessed January 30, 2015, http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/Experts-reveal-secrets-from-captured-narco-sub-1691587.php.
[xii] Rachel Chase, “Shining Path leader Abimael Guzman on trial for 1992 Tarata bombing,” Peru This Week, accessed January 30, 2015, http://www.peruthisweek.com/news-shining-path-leader-abimael-guzman-on-trial-for-1992-tarata-bombing-102033.

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Blouin Beat: Paraguay’s “little” insurgent problem



Paraguay's "Little" Insurgent Problem
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin Beat: Politics
August 28, 2013
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatpolitics/2013/08/28/paraguays-little-insurgent-problem/

The Paraguayan Army has deployed some 400 troops from its 4th Infantry Division to three northern regions — Concepción, San Pedro and Amambay — to hunt down the members of a shadowy insurgent movement, the Paraguayan People’s Army (Ejército del Pueblo Paraguayo; EPP for short). The group stands accused of killing four guards at a cattle ranch and a police officer in San Pedro; the attack came days after Horacio Cartes was inaugurated as Paraguay’s new head of state on August 15. The EPP, it seems, wanted to waste no time in giving him a bloody welcome.
The EPP is one of the more obscure active Latin American insurgent movements. The generally accepted origins of the group is that it emerged in 1992 as the armed wing of a clandestine political movement known as Patria Libre  and in 2008 the group adopted its current name. Moreover the group claims to have a Marxist ideology, while some of its heroes and influences are Ernesto “Che” Guevara and Regis Debray, as well as Paraguayan heroes like the Mariscal Francisco Solano López. (In fact, an image of Solano Lopez is imprinted on the EPP’s flag). In 2008, Carmen Villalba, a self-declared spokeswoman of the EPP who is currently imprisoned, stated that the group’s support comes from “the Paraguayan people, the people who eternally feel that they have been ridiculed, discriminated against and stepped on.”  If the EPP is to be believed about its political ideology, it would — arguably; the Zapatistas in Mexico have something of a claim to the title as well, though their goal was never to overthrow the government — be the first insurgent movementthat has a political raison d’etre to appear in Latin America since the Cold War.
Leaving aside its motivations, the EPP is growing as a security concern in the landlocked South American nation. It is true that the group does not yet have the predilection for indiscriminate violence displayed by, say, Peru’s Shining Path; happily, it does not hold anywhere near the casualty count of the group. Peru’s Truth Commission estimates that the Shining Path was responsible for roughly 46% of the estimated 70,000 Peruvians that either died or disappeared in the country’s internal war since 1980. Media reports explain that roughly 30 people have died by EPP attacks since 2005.
But these insurgents have not aimed low, despite their small successes: the group has carried out attacks against government facilities as well as high-profile kidnappings. In September 2004, the group kidnapped Susana Cubas, the daughter of former Paraguayan President Raúl Cubas. Her body was found in February 2005 in the outskirts of Asunción. In September 2011, EPP fighters attacked a small police outpost in the Concepción region, and two policemen were killed in the shootout.  This is a standard modus operandi for the EPP, which is focusing in attacking small, isolated outposts instead of taking major armed units head on (most likely due to a lack of sufficient fighters). It is worth noting that while the EPP has occasionally destroyed farming machinery, it has not resorted to utilizing more destructive terrorist methods, such as the car bombs that were Shining Path’s trademark in Peru in the 1980s.
So while the group is not a problem of FARC/Shining Path proportions, it is still a problem, and a serious one. Continuous attacks will throw this politically fragile state (which is finally recovering from the 2012 overthrow of President Fernando Lugo) into further turmoil. One can see the first inklings of this in Cartes’ strong move out of the gate: it would be a bad start to his presidency for him to fumble on national security. He has the rhetoric down, declaring that “the military is going to the north of the country to give their lives.” But internal deployment of troops is a fraught issue in a country known for its distrust of the military due to a history of repressive rule. This being, of course, most firmly incarnated in Alfredo Stroessner’s military dictatorship, which lasted from 1954 to 1989.
Which means Cartes will be walking a fine line in his first months in power, trying to win the calculus on these security challenges. But the real incognitum here is the growth of EPP. The group may not be as large as Colombia’s FARC, and it may lack the financial resources of Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, but it should not be overlooked.
After all, the Shining Path started small, in the isolated Peruvian highlands of the Ayacucho region, but exponentially grew to the point that it had a presence in most parts of the country by the late 1980s. During its heyday in the early 2000s, the FARC reportedly had close to 16,000 combatants – a huge increase from the roughly 1,000 peasants that inhabited the village of Marquetalia, Tolima,the “free zone” that Communist guerrillas controlled and which the Colombian military tried to retake by force in 1964, effectively starting the country’s internal war. (A FARC war myth is that only 48 individuals out of the 1000 villagers in Marquetalia were actually armed). The guerrillas that survived the military operation renamed themselves as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia in 1966.
The EPP does not appear to have massive numbers — recent reports by the Paraguayan mediaestimate that it boasts around 150 combatants — but the group’s strength is waxing. Government officials say the insurgents are recruiting poor peasants in San Pedro and Concepción. AsChristian Roig, the public prosecutor for San Pedro, put it “There is no doubt that the EPP is growing […] they are recruiting more people, who are humble peasants, that during the day they work in their fields and at night they are fighters.”  From little acorns . . .