Blouin Beat: World - Will ‘Narcos’ stick to reality, mystery safe and all?

"Will 'Narcos' stick to reality, mystery safe and all?"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin Beat: World
February 1, 2016
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2016/02/01/will-narcos-stick-to-reality-mystery-safe-and-all/

In addition to periodic coverage of geopolitics in Latin America, W. Alejandro Sanchez has previously reported on substance abuse in Netflix’s ‘Jessica Jones’ and whether cyber warfare is accurately depicted in the USA network’s ‘Mr. Robot.’ 

A

 metal safe has been discovered by workers demolishing a Miami mansion overlooking Biscayne Bay, which was owned by the late Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar. Given the existing mythology around the notorious criminal, we can expect significant speculation about the safe’s contents until it is opened.

Escobar’s life has been well documented. For example, Mark Bowden’s book Killing Pablo: The Hunt for the World’s Greatest Outlaw, is a must-read for anyone interested in the late criminal. Additionally, Juan Pablo Escobar, the narco lord’s son, has published a biography entitled Pablo Escobar: Mi Padre (My Father), in which he labels his father as a “drug trafficker, terrorist and assassin.” Additionally, there are television and movie productions about Escobar. For example, a Colombian series was produced about his life, entitled ‘Pablo Escobar: El Patron del Mal’ (‘The Lord of Evil’), while Guillermo del Toro portrayed him in the 2015 film ‘Paradise Lost.’

Recently, Escobar became a household name in the U.S. due to ‘Narcos,’ a Netflix series that describes his life, his drug empire and the operations carried out by Colombian and U.S. security agencies to hunt him down. The series has generally remained true to history, though there are some exaggerations or adaptations of what really happened. Case in point: in one episode, Escobar and his bodyguards kill Ivan Marino Ospina (AKA “Ivan The Terrible”) a leader of the M-19 revolutionary movement. In reality, Ospina was killed by Colombian security forces.

Season 1 of ‘Narcos’ ended with Escobar fleeing the golden prison, known as “La Catedral,” that he had constructed for himself. The show’s popularity prompted it to be renewed for a second season, which will revolve around the Colombian and U.S. governments tracking Escobar down until his death on December 2, 1993. If ‘Narcos’ hews to history, Escobar will be shot on a rooftop in Medellin by members of a Colombian police unit known as Search Bloc, which was tasked with finding him. Then again, ‘Narcos’ may try to be vague about who killed Escobar, as there are theories that his murder was carried out by narco-paramilitaries (see the book This Is How We Killed The Boss), or maybe even U.S. Delta snipers (Bowden hints at this in Killing Pablo), while his son Juan Pablo argues that the drug lord killed himself to avoid being captured (and in all likelihood extradited to the U.S.).

It would be amusing if ‘Narcos’ decides to address the recently found safe. After fleeing La Catedral, Escobar remained in hiding and did not travel to Miami, but there could be a flashback scene of Escobar or one of his henchmen closing the safe one last time. The Miami Heraldexplains that Escobar bought the mansion in March 1980 for $762,500, and it was seized by the U.S. government in 1987 as Washington stepped up its fight against him.

At the time of this writing, the new owners of Escobar’s home have yet to open the 600 pound metal safe – inside there could be money, weapons, drugs or even documents that incriminate Miami businesses and individuals that were part of Escobar’s narco-empire. According to theBBC, “workers had already found one safe in the house shortly after demolition work began, but it disappeared before anyone could examine it,” which only adds to the mystery.

As ‘Narcos’ mentions at the beginning of the series, Colombia is the birthplace of the literary movement known as “realismo mágico,” magic realism, where magic and reality co-exist in harmony. When it comes to Pablo Escobar’s criminal life, there is certainly much “mágico” in his reality.

Blouin Beat: World - ‘Paradise Lost:’ Benicio del Toro plays Pablo Escobar

"'Paradise Lost:' Benicio del Toro plays Pablo Escobar"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin Beat: World
July 30, 2014
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2014/07/30/paradise-lost-benicio-del-toro-plays-pablo-escobar/

The renowned actor Benicio del Toro will become the infamous Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar in the upcoming movie ‘Paradise Lost,’ written and directed by Andrea di Stefano. To what extent del Toro will play a convincing Escobar remains to be seen. At the very least, ‘Paradise Lost’ is yet another recent production portraying the Colombian drug trafficker. Over two decades after Escobar’s death, his life remains captivating to the masses.

Taping began in March 2013 and, after much waiting, a teaser trailer was released online in mid-July. The film will premiere in October in Spain and be released the following month in France.

The plot of di Stefano’s newest movie does not focus on Escobar himself, though he is obviously a prominent character. The film largely centers on a young American who travels to Colombia and falls in love with a young Colombian woman, whose uncle turns out to be Escobar. From the short teaser, del Toro seems to be portraying Escobar as a ruthless drug lord without much of a humane side.

As previously mentioned, this is not the first time that Escobar’s life has been adapted to either a movie or a TV series. In 2012, Caracol TV, a Colombian television station, produced a soap opera entitled ‘Pablo Escobar: El Patron del Mal’ (‘Pablo Escobar: The Drug Lord’).

Additionally, the drug lord’s son, Sebastian Marroquin (he changed his name after his father’s demise), is also profiting from his father’s legacy. Marroquin’s clothing line, Poder Poder, produces clothes that prominently display Escobar’s image, like t-shirts with Escobar’s birth certificate or his arrest warrant.

Other projects that discuss Escobar’s life include the 2009 documentary ‘Pecados de mi Padre’ (‘Sins of my Father’), which includes interviews with his son Sebastian, and Escobar’s widow Maria Isabel Santos. Escobar’s life and death was also reviewed in the 2001 book Killing Pablo: The Hunt for the World’s Greatest Outlaw, an in-depth analytical biography of the Colombian criminal by the renowned author Mark Bowden. In his book, Bowden discuses Escobar’s life, from his childhood to how he became the leader of the infamous Medellin Cartel in the late 1970s and 1980s.

Escobar finally met his end during a raid on one of his safe houses by the Colombian police in 1993. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that there are theories that the U.S., which at the time provided Colombian security agencies with financial and technical aid to crack down on drug trafficking and stop Escobar, may have been behind the Colombian’s death. (Moreover, a new book by Diego Murillo, an imprisoned Colombian drug lord, claims that his brother shot Escobar)

In a 2012 report entitled “Violent Threads: From Routine Murder to High Fashion” for the Council on Hemispheric Affairs I discussed Poder Poder’s potential ramifications on how Escobar is remembered today. In the aforementioned report I point to how new generations of Colombians are presently growing up without having suffered through years of “Escobar-authored terrorism.” They have not had to read daily news reports about the assassinations of politicians, police officers and journalists that occurred as a result of his orders. With that said, I would be remiss not to acknowledge the initiatives that the drug lord carried out in his native Antioquia (a northern department in Colombia) to help the local population, like building football fields and electric towers.

Producing a film or TV series about a real-life individual is always tricky, particularly a criminal as controversial as Pablo Escobar. We still have to wait a few months to see how Benicio del Toro portrays the deceased drug lord in ‘Paradise Lost.’ While some of the characters of this movie are fictional, Escobar was a very real individual and his legacy will continue to have a profound effect on Colombia for years to come.

VOXXI: The 20th Anniversary of the Death of Pablo Escobar

The 20th Anniversary of the Death of Pablo Escobar
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
December 2, 2013
Originally published http://voxxi.com/2013/12/02/20th-anniversary-death-pablo-escobar/

Pablo Escobar is still remembered two decades after his death in Colombia, and Latin America in general, but the way he is recalled varies.

Twenty years ago, on December 2, 1993, Pablo Escobar was shot and killed during a raid by the Colombian police. The operation, which took part in Medellin, would be the beginning of the end for the Medellin Cartel which was headed by Escobar, one of the most powerful and ruthless criminal entities in Colombia at the time.

Fear no more?

Pablo Escobar’s rise to fame and the violent actions that he carried out during the late 1970s and 1980s, at the height of his power, has generally been well-documented.

He and his allies, such as the Ochoa brothers and Jose Gonzalo Rodriguez Gacha, transformed the Medellin Cartel into a powerhouse within his country. (Incidentally, Jhon Jairo Velasquez Vasquez, AKA Popeye, one of Escobar’s assassins, was freed this past September after spending just 23 years in prison, even though he has declared to the media that he has killed around 300 people).

He was particularly violent against his opponents, whether they were members of the Colombian government, security forces, journalists that did not write about him from a positive angle, or of other criminal entities, such as the Cali Cartel.

Some of Pablo Escobar’s most famous assassinations includeGuillermo Cano, editor of the daily El Espectador, as well as the 1989 murder of Colombian presidential candidate Luis Carlos Galan.

Moreover, it has often been alleged that Escobar, also known as El Patron or El Doctor, orchestrated the 1985 storming of the Colombian Supreme Court by fighters of the M-19, a defunct Colombian left-wing guerrilla movement.

One curious factor that made him different from other drug traffickers of the time is that, to paraphrase Mark Bowden (author of the 2001 best-seller biography “Killing Pablo”), Escobar did not just want to be rich and powerful, he also wanted to be loved.

To this end, he carried out many philanthropic initiatives in his native region of Antioquia, such as building sports complexes and bringing electricity to isolated areas. Even today, he is still fondly remembered in several Medellin neighborhoods for constructing houses for people in need.

Most memorable was Pablo Escobar’s success in getting elected to the Colombian Congress. This happened in 1982, when he ran as part of the Colombian Liberal Party and was elected to be an alternative in the House of Representatives.

Furthermore, when Escobar went to prison, it was on his own terms. He managed to hatch a deal with the Cesar Gaviria administration through which he was allowed to build a prison, known as La Catedral, for himself and some of his associates. Unsurprisingly he did not spend much time there before escaping.

When he was killed in 1993 by a Colombian police task force known as Search Block, Pablo Escobar was trying to negotiate a new surrender. However, after the embarrassing fiasco of La Catedral, neither Gaviria nor Washington (which was increasing its presence in Colombia to combat drug trafficking) were eager to accept a new agreement.

Pablo Escobar’s legacy

Two decades after his death, the question now is how Escobar is, or should be, remembered. Certainly, he has become part of Latin American pop culture history. This is perhaps best exemplified by the telenovela aptly entitled “Pablo Escobar: El Patron del Mal” (The Lord of Evil).

The soap opera portrays Escobar’s life, but whether it gives too much humanity to the late kingpin is open to debate.

It should be noted that it is not just television stations that are capitalizing on Pablo Escobar’s admittedly fascinating story. Even his son Sebastian Marroquin (he changed his name two decades ago after Escobar’s death), is profiting from his late father’s image, as he has created a clothing line called Poder Poder.

The line produces items such as t-shirts that have a picture of Escobar’s arrest documents as well as his father’s face. Marroquin argues that he started this enterprise so that he could influence young people to not become criminals, however, he has been critiqued for this initiative nevertheless.

It should be noted that there has been much scholarly work analyzing Pablo Escobar’s life. Apart from Bowden’s aforementioned Killing Pablo, the renowned journalist Yolanda Ruiz recently made public an interview with Escobar that she carried out in 1988.

The interview is fascinating, as Escobar is ambiguous regarding his role as a drug trafficker while also describing himself as “simply a person that respects the ideas of other people” (for audio of the interview click here).

It is a worrisome development that a new generation of Colombians and Latin Americans, who did not grow up during Pablo Escobar’s era of terror, may become fond of him.

A similar pattern is already emerging in Mexico, where there are alarming reports that some young Mexicans want to become narcos, due to the wealth and power of criminal entities like the Zetas or Sinaloa Cartel.

As for Colombia, modern-day drug trafficking entities are not as powerful as Escobar’s Medellin Cartel was, but there are plenty of criminal groups involved in this trade.

These include the FARC, as well as criminal gangs like the Urabeños. Hopefully, whatever the future of drug trafficking in Colombia, no narco-lord will ever have the same type of power and impunity that Pablo Escobar once enjoyed.

COHA: Violent Threads: From Routine Murder to High Fashion

Violent Threads: From Routine Murder to High Fashion
W. Alex Sanchez
Council on Hemispheric Affairs
December 6, 2012
Originally published: http://www.coha.org/violent-threads/

Pablo Escobar gained notoriety throughout the 1980s as the most powerful leader of the Medellin Cartel in Colombia.¹ His influence and brutality can be effectively contrasted with today’s infamous Mexican outlaw, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, the leader of the Sinaloa Cartel. The Colombian drug lord’s reign came to a violent end in 1993 when he was shot to death during a police raid.  Today, almost 20 years after his death, Escobar’s son, Juan Pablo (who has now changed his name to Sebastian Marroquin), has launched a clothing line that includes t-shirts with photomontages of his infamous father. The son’s decision to make a profit out of his father’s violent and extravagant life has to be placed in a wider context of how Latin American society remembers the region’s violent period and the drug-generated celebrities of the 1960s to the mid 1990s that soaked the land with their blood. Such a discussion would necessarily have to include an inventory of the iconic characters that illuminated the period and gave it such infamy.

Escobar and Guevara Presente

At its most garish moments, clothing lines that immortalize individuals from Latin America’s tawdry epoch (such as the Argentine revolutionary Ernesto “Che” Guevara to the aforementioned Escobar) are one of the ways the region remembers how to celebrate its most notorious figures, and can profit from an unremittingly and profitable past. Other venues, through which the criminal, but glamorous, lives from that period are addressed, include the production of movies and soap operas.  The proper way to remember the period’s operatic past becomes a contemporary issue as new generations of Latin Americans grow up thrilled by these famous names but without having experienced the atrocities that made their ancestors household names. This is all the more reason why a properly balanced education makes this controversial history so necessary and compelling.

Violent Fashion

Clothes with pictures of iconic Latin American figures have become commonplace today. Perhaps the best-known example invokes the image of Ernesto Guevara, the Argentine revolutionary and a critical figure of the Latin American Cold War era that had his visage stamped on t-shirts and billboards (astride his motorcycle, on his way to some rendezvous with his fellow revolutionaries) for decades. Ironically, while the Argentine folk hero struggled to fight capitalism throughout the hemisphere for years (he spent some time fighting in Angola as well) capitalist entrepreneurs have been quick to profit from his image and his fiercely anti-capitalist persona. For example, the Che Guevara online Store (www.thechestore.com), has vended dozens of items with Guevara’s haunting face (ranging from t-shirts, headwear, personal bags to even Guevara bobble heads). Furthermore, his life, leading up to the advancement of the revolution, was portrayed in the major 2004 motion picture called Diarios de Motocicleta.² Guevara also evolved into being a prolific writer as he wrote numerous essays where he explained his ideology. Arguably contributing to his notoriety is the 1998 book Guerrilla Warfare, represents a compilation of some of his major communiqués.³

A more recent example of “violent threads,” is the aforementioned launch, by the son of Pablo Escobar, of a clothing line designed to honor his father, called Poder Poder (Power Power).⁴ The clothes that are being manufactured today include t-shirts with Escobar’s birth certificate and credit cards, along with photos depicting various stages of his life. One of the t-shirts even has the image of Escobar’s arrest warrant. The clothes are already available for purchase in several countries, including Spain and Guatemala.

It is worth mentioning that the Mexican drug cartels have yet to find occasion to jumpstart any self-promoting clothing lines. On the other hand, it has become increasingly usual for the members of cartels to place their organization’s logos onto different types of clothing and accessories. The El Paso Intelligence Center, which publishes unclassified reports of information recollected from a variety of security agencies such as the DEA and the Department of Homeland Security, published on January 2011 a report entitled, “Language of the Cartels: Narco Terminology, Identifiers, and Clothing Style,” that increasingly addresses the growing popularity and usage of the cartels’ logos.⁵ For example, regarding the infamous Zetas cartel, the report explains that:

[The] Zetas logo indicated their previous alliance to the Gulf Cartel; however, the Zetas are now currently using the Ferrari logo, as well. These symbols are not only seen on their vehicles, but also on their key chains, and on their clothing, as these logos are being placed on leather jackets and jewelry. In the wing of the “Hecho En Tamaulipas” logo, there will be a “Z” for Zetas.⁶

Remembering the Past?

How Latin American governments cope with their violent past, while simultaneously teaching new generations about these legacies, is an issue that is sure to grow in importance in the coming years. Whether it is past discussions regarding the ideological war between Washington and Moscow that generates proxy wars across the Western Hemisphere or expanding upon the legacies of a controversial individual like Pablo Escobar (who made a personal fortune and created an aura around himself thanks to his involvement in drug trafficking) the question will be: how will the region remember its recent and characteristically brutal history?  As previously mentioned, the Argentine insurgent leader Che Guevara has become a world icon and has become immortalized on t-shirts as well as wall paintings around the world. His popularity has been cemented on walls at home and abroad, as well as by his numerous public manifestations.⁷

Therefore another question that must be asked regarding the fate of the Colombian drug lord is whether he will be remembered in a dramatically similar way to how Guevara has been so heroically remembered. Factors that would aid this unwanted development include the Poder Poder clothing line and the controversial initiatives the Colombian drug lord carried out in poor communities in his native region of Antioquia. These projects included the construction of roads, as well as sports facilities, due to their connection with his hometown, in order to promote a positive image of himself while he was alive.

Nevertheless, it is critical to remember that “El Doctor,” as Escobar was also known, became infamous for the violent actions he took against his opponents as well as against innocent bystanders. While he wanted to portray himself to the public as some kind of Colombian Robin Hood or Emiliano Zapata, he instilled a reign of terror throughout the country in the 1980s. The question can be asked: should people really be wearing the clothes that will financially reward his son and immortalize his father, arguably in a positive way?  The crimes resulting from Escobar’s orders have been well documented and are universally known throughout Latin America. For example, the author of this commentary has been interviewed for an upcoming documentary entitled Uncensored, which discusses the violence that Colombian journalists chronically faced throughout the 1980s at the hands of criminal organizations, such as Escobar’s Medellin Cartel.⁸

However, new generations of Colombians are presently growing up without having suffered the milieu of Escobar-authored terrorist car bombs or reading about the assassination of politicians, police officers and journalists that occurred as a result of his orders. In regards to the generally positive image that the t-shirts have generated in respect to Guevara, it is debatable to what extent the Escobar legacy will be affected in the coming years as this apparel is circulated. Upon announcing the creation of the Escobar clothing line, his son explained that the clothes are “an auto criticism of my father’s history, and an invitation for the youth to be conscious of the dangers of entering the drug and drug trafficking world.”⁹

As previously mentioned, it is important to highlight that besides the recently introduced clothing lines and movies, there is a new popular way of portraying the narco/criminal life via exciting telenovelas (soap operas). For example, several Colombian novelas deal with the drug life, including “El Capo,” “Las Muñecas de la Mafia” and “Sin Tetas No Hay Paraiso.” Such productions have also come under scrutiny as they humanize – even glamorize – the narco life under a light of glamour that might make the violent organization appealing to young viewers.  Interestingly, the Latin TV station Telemundo has launched a soap opera entitled, “Pablo Escobar: El Patron del Mal” (Pablo Escobar: The Lord of Evil), which portrays the Colombian drug lord’s life.¹⁰

While freedom of expression should be supported and protected, it is a tragic development that a systematic murderer and assassin like Escobar has the potential to be immortalized, or remembered in any positive way, considering the loathsome actions he carried out throughout his life.  It is this kind of educational and social dilemma that several regional countries have generated and will likely continue to do so for decades to come.

Conclusions

How the average citizen of Latin America remembers the region’s violent past will become an increasingly important point of examination in the coming years. In regards to clothing lines, carrying the likes of the emblematic garbs of Che Guevara and Pablo Escobar throughout trade shops in the hemisphere, it is debatable to what extent these businesses, besides making a prodigious profit, are also promoting a positive image of the individuals they portray. In Guevara’s case, the combination of the publication of his memoirs, the 2004 biopic, and his camisetas have immortalized him as a positive, yet perhaps overrated, towering figure of the Cold War. According to some Latin American experts, Guevara is an irrelevant, romantic and colorful, if misguided, figure of the Cold War, whose commitment to the revolution has been based on geopolitical farrago and advancing pathological causes via extreme violence. Nevertheless, decades after his death in the Bolivian jungle, he remains a positive symbol for new generations.  It is still too early to tell if a similar development will occur with Pablo Escobar, which makes it even more important for the Colombian government to educate its youth regarding the country’s recent history, including the plethora of bloody deeds carried out by Escobar and his Medellín Cartel.

Despite ongoing elevated levels of violence in Mexico with the drug cartels, the Mara gangs in Central America and narco-terrorism in Peru and Colombia, an optimist could say that, hopefully, the region has managed to slowly turn a page regarding its violent past. Hopefully, we won’t see any more dirty wars, military dictatorships, or massacres, though this may just be wishful thinking. In any case, after having survived a particularly dark chapter of its history, Latin America can today better deal with addressing its often shameful past and how the region’s youth should be educated, including comprehending the significance of wearing a Guevara or Escobar t-shirt in some steamy last-chance hotel.

W. Alex Sanchez, Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

Please accept this article as a free contribution from COHA, but if re-posting, please afford authorial and institutional attribution.

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¹ For a good history of Escobar’s life, see: Bowden, Mark. Killing Pablo: The Hunt for the World’s Greatest Outlaw. Penguin Books. April 2002.

² The Motorcycle Diaries (Diarios de Motocicleta).FilmFour / BD Cine. 2004. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Motorcycle_Diaries_(film)

³ Ernesto “Che” Guevara (Author) and Mac Brecker (introduction). Guerrilla Warfare. Bilson Books. First Edition. September 1998. http://www.amazon.com/Guerrilla-Warfare-Ernesto-Che-Guevara/dp/0803270755

⁴ Gamboa, Veronica. “Ropa creada por hijo de Pablo Escobar se vende en Guatemala.” Prensa Libre (Guatemala). September 3, 20 12. http://www.prensalibre.com/noticias/comunitario/Linea-Ropa-Pablo-Escobar-Guatemala-Sebastian_Marroquin-Gaviria-Henao_0_767323423.html

⁵ EPIC Intelligence Center. Language of the Cartels:  Narco Terminology, Identifiers and Clothing Style. Public Intelligence.net. January 2011. Available: http://publicintelligence.net/ules-lulzsec-release-epic-language-of-the-cartels-narco-terminology-report/

⁶  EPIC Intelligence Center. Language of the Cartels:  Narco Terminology, Identifiers and Clothing Style. Public Intelligence.net. January 2011. Available: http://publicintelligence.net/ules-lulzsec-release-epic-language-of-the-cartels-narco-terminology-report/  P.2

⁷ Guevara addresses the United Nations in 1961. Video http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=bufHojkoGtw

⁸ Uncensored. Website. Available: http://uncensoredthedoc.com/

⁹ “Presenta hijo de Pablo Escobar line de ropa inspirada en su padre.” Animal Politico. August 30, 2012.  Available: http://www.animalpolitico.com/2012/08/presenta-hijo-de-pablo-escobar-linea-de-ropa-inspirada-en-su-padre/#axzz2D9r9Kh5B

¹⁰ Pablo Escobar: El Patron the Mal. Website. Telemundo. Available: http://msnlatino.telemundo.com/novelas/El_Patron_del_Mal/

VOXXI: Could (Should) US Eliminate El Chapo?

Could (Should) US Eliminate El Chapo?
W. Alex Sanchez
Research Fellow, Council on Hemispheric Affairs
VOXXI
August 20, 2012
Originally published in: http://bit.ly/NgtZuB 

According to the Mexican daily Proceso, the U.S. government aims to eliminate the renowned leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman. Per the report, ”the Pentagon elaborated the plan several months ago but it’s now at a standstill because it would only be carried out by American troops,” a displeasing prospect for the Mexican military. According to the Mexican media, outgoing president, Felipe Calderon, may have already shown support for this plan.

While the sources of this report remain unclear, the idea of eliminating El Chapo is, unsurprisingly, already generating analyses and discussions as exemplified by a recent piece on Wired.com. The Wired article discusses the likelihood of the operation taking place as well as the pros and cons. In addition there are comparisons between a theoretical operation against El Chapo and the operation that eliminated Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.

The goal of this commentary is not to assess the validity of the claims by Proceso, but rather to discuss the provocative idea of whether or not only El Chapo can be captured or eliminated in an Osama bin Laden-style operation by the U.S. In addition, the ultimate question that needs to be asked remains: Has El Chapo become too big to be captured alive?

The Obvious Concern

An obvious initial concern relates to U.S. collaboration with the Mexican government should they find El Chapo and either (A) attempt to capture him or (B) eliminate him. Of course, a realistic possibility is that El Chapo could somehow be informed about the operation via his contacts in the government and escape.

There is some logic to this sentiment as there are several proven instances of corruption and incompetence in the Mexican government and military. In May 2012, four Mexican army generals were detained for ties with drug cartels. According to a report by the New York Times “the accusations against the third general […]include that he ignored a tip by American drug agents about an imminent airplane delivery of a drug cartel’s cocaine in 2007.” To compare the situation to the Bin Laden Operation, when President Barack Obama received enough credible intelligence information to send Seal Team Six (the military unit that was deployed to eliminate bin Laden), he did so. However he did not inform the Pakistani government of his decision, concerned that bin Laden would be tipped off by friendly Pakistani officials, like members of the ISI.

Should the U.S. military intervene into Mexican territory without informing Mexico D.F. about such an operation, this would be a grave insult that could put into jeopardy binational relations.

The Issue of Domestic Politics

Additionally, there are some peripheral distractions that may play a role in the decision, though they arguably shouldn’t. The U.S. is preparing for presidential elections on November 4, and this would, arguably, be a bad time for the administration to involve the country in another military operation, even a brief one like a raid. If the raid should fail and U.S. troops fall, this could potentially hurt the president’s re-election aspirations, as the Republican Party will use any failure as proof that the incumbent Democratic administration is weak regarding national security.

When it comes to Mexican politics, timing may also be an important factor. President Calderon will leave power in December and, if El Chapo is found, the outgoing head of state may want a military operation that he can take credit for in order to (to put it bluntly) “leave with a bang.” This is also important because it is believed that the incoming president, Enrique Pena Nieto, may have a more relaxed, laissez faire, attitude toward actively hunting the leadership of the Cartels. Such allegations, if they turn out to be true, would mean that the U.S could expect little help regarding trying to track down El Chapo during the incoming Pena presidency. It’s certainly an open question if members of the EPN administration will be more or less open to possible Cartel bribery than previous administrations.

Finally, it is difficult to predict how a successful operation (or a failure) would affect the way Mexican-America voters cast their ballots in the upcoming U.S. elections.

The Precedents

The stories of several prominent criminal figures and their pursuits by different governments provide precedents for the El Chapo case. The most obvious and relevant precedent would naturally be the raid on the bin Laden compound in Pakistan. Whether the Al Qaeda could have been taken alive during the raid is debatable as details remain classified, but one can muse that, if he had surrendered, the subsequent trial would have been a media circus, not to mention a security problem both during and after (inevitably) bin Laden was found guilty and imprisoned.

But besides bin Laden there are other precedents of high profile criminals that were “too big to be captured.” For example, Peru holds individuals like Abimael Guzman, the leader of the insurgent group Sendero Luminoso, in maximum security prisons. Guzman’s group, which has carried out a deadly war against the Peruvian government and society since the early 1980s, is consequently culpable for tens of thousands of deaths. He’s currently serving a life sentence. Sharing a cell next to the former guerrilla leader is former Peruvian dictator Alberto Fujimori, who is serving a 25-year old sentence for being the mastermind of a number of massacres by government-organized death squads.

Meanwhile, in Panama there has been great controversy over the fate of General Manuel Noriega, who ruled the country in the 1980s and is known for his ties to drug trafficking as well as the CIA. He spent 17 years in a Miami prison and then served additional jail time in France. There was great concern when he was eventually extradited back to Panama whether he would become a destabilizing force, though this hasn’t happened (yet). He is currently in a jail in his homeland and there has been discussion about whether he should be freed due to his failing health, as it is believed he may have a brain tumor.

The New Pablo Escobar?

But apart from the aforementioned examples, including bin Laden himself, there is a Latin American precedent that can be looked at regarding far-reaching drug barons: Pablo Escobar, the leader of the Medellin Cartel during the 1980s. This author was recently interviewed for a documentary entitled “Uncensored,” which “recounts the lives of journalists during the most violent years of Colombia’s history.” Part of the documentary will revolve around Escobar, who could be described as the El Chapo of the 1980s.

Escobar’s major fear was that he did not want to be extradited to the U.S. to face jail time. He fought the Colombian government, surrendered, and went as far as building his own detention center in which he spent just over a year before he escaped. On the run, the Colombian government (with heavy aid from U.S. intelligence agencies) hunted him ruthlessly. Occasionally, he tried to surrender, but the Cesar Gaviria administration refused to negotiate with Escobar again. In other words, it had become clear that he was too powerful, too violent and too unreliable to be captured, and if he was, he could not be locked up in Colombia. And since extradition wasn’t an option (a 1991 Colombian Constitution forbade extradition), the only option left was the elimination of Pablo Escobar.

Escobar was ultimately shot to death by a special unit of the Colombian police with, by even the loosest association, U.S. intelligence help. Will this be El Chapo’s ultimate fate? To be eliminated either by a combination of U.S.-backed Mexican forces like Escobar or by American commandos on their own like bin Laden? Either option presents its own set of controversial issues but the larger question remains, has El Chapo become too much of a powerful and dangerous drug baron, like Pablo Escobar in his own time, to be captured? The Colombian kingpin’s life and fate, more than bin Laden’s, presents an important precedent.

Read more: http://www.voxxi.com/us-eliminate-sinaloa-el-chapo/#ixzz2491HzqSB