"The Upcoming Meeting Between Presidents Trump and Bolsonaro: A Realist Friendship"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Providence Magazine
15 March, 2019
Originally published:
https://providencemag.com/2019/03/upcoming-meeting-presidents-trump-bolsonaro-realist-friendship/
President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil will meet with US President Donald
Trump on Tuesday, March 19, as part of his trip to Washington, DC. Most
generally expect that the two leaders will get along, as the new
Brazilian leader has declared himself a fan of the American president.
Mutual praising notwithstanding, the great unknown is whether there will
be any outcome of substance following their meeting.
An Optimistic Prelude
There are reasons to believe that the meeting will be successful. Apart from Trump
tweeting his congratulations when Bolsonaro was elected in October 2018,
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
attended his inauguration in Brasilia, an important sign that both
capitals want to reset and improve relations. Bolsonaro has even
declared that he would like a
US military base
to be installed on Brazilian territory to help with border security—he
eventually retracted that comment, but it is fair to say he meant it.
As part of the Brazilian delegation, “Super” Minister of the Economy
Paulo Guedes will also come to Washington. He is one of the “Chicago
Boys” who is pushing for greater trade between the two countries; hence,
it will be important to see whom he meets while in the US capital, as
this may plant the seeds for greater US investment in the South American
state. One prime example of the kind of deal that Guedes would want to
see more of is the ongoing merger between Boeing (whose headquarters is
in Chicago) and the Brazilian aerospace company EMBRAER, a deal
worth $4.2 billion.
Always Venezuela
The White House released a statement on March 8 regarding the upcoming visit. The short press release reads:
The leaders of the Hemisphere’s two largest economies
will also discuss opportunities for defense cooperation, pro-growth
trade policies, combating transnational crime, and restoring democracy
in Venezuela. Finally, they will talk about the major role that the
United States and Brazil are playing in the effort to provide
humanitarian assistance to Venezuela.
Thus, it is obvious that, while the two heads of state will certainly
address various topics, the situation in Venezuela is the Bolivarian
elephant in the room. The Bolsonaro administration has maintained a
pretty strict policy toward de facto President Nicolas Maduro. For
example, Brazil has continued to
accept Venezuelan refugees (though there have been, sadly, instances of
xenophobia against them), reinforced the border with military units, allowed
interim President Juan Guaidó to enter Brazilian territory, and called for Maduro to leave power—Bolsonaro famously declared he will help “
reestablish order and democracy” in the neighboring state.
It is in Washington’s interest that Bolsonaro continues to keep
pressure on Maduro, though it remains to be seen whether this external
pressure will bring about the desired regime change in Caracas, one way
or another.
Creating a Special Relationship
At an on-the-record event on the upcoming visit titled “
Bolsonaro and Trump: What Lies Ahead for Brazil-US Relations?”
held at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, DC, the renowned
Monica de Bolle, from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International
Studies, declared that “the bilateral relationship is cordial but never
leads anywhere.”
This statement is certainly true as, in spite of generally good
relations—moments of tension notwithstanding, like when it was revealed
that US intelligence agencies had spied on former Brazilian
President Dilma Rousseff’s communications—Brasilia
and Washington have never enjoyed a “special relationship” à la
Washington-London or Washington-Bogota. The situation in Venezuela has
become the catalyst that is bringing the like-minded leaders of Brasilia
and Washington together, but it remains to be seen if this is enough to
establish a long-lasting close relationship.
Bolsonaro and the Brazilian military would certainly like greater US
support toward improving Brazilian border and internal security, namely
to combat drug trafficking that crosses Brazilian territory to the ports
of Santos, Recife, and Salvador, and from there out to the Atlantic
Ocean. The US is improving military cooperation with Brazil, including
the bolstering of
joint amphibious capabilities through more exercises and the delivery of
M109A5+ BR 155 mm howitzers
for the Brazilian army. Nevertheless, as Professor Matias Spektor, from
the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, explained at the Inter-American Dialogue
event, “the visit is not at all about Brazil, it’s about Venezuela…
[Trump] is not concerned about the port of Santos; he’s concerned, and
understandably, about the situation in Venezuela.” In other words, while
the Brazilian military would want to see Bolsonaro secure new defense
cooperation agreements to combat drug trafficking in Brazil, Washington
is more focused on Venezuela.
Bolsonaro to Meet Washington Conservatives
As a final issue, it is important to note that Bolsonaro will meet
with Washington conservatives, including Steven Bannon, according to the
renowned Brazilian daily
Folha do Sao Paulo.
One of the pillars of support for the Brazilian head of state comes
from social Brazilian conservatives, including evangelicals. Hence, it
will be interesting to see how the president’s meetings with social
conservatives in the US influence his future decisions, particularly
regarding foreign policy (e.g., moving the Brazilian embassy in Israel
to Jerusalem, as he promised during his presidential campaign).
Final Thoughts
The upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Bolsonaro is
expected to be cordial and amicable. Only time will tell whether that
personal friendship transforms into any mutually beneficial agreements.
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez is an analyst who focuses on geopolitical, military, and cybersecurity issues.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone
and do not necessarily reflect those of any institutions with which the
author is associated.
