Blouin World: Hitting “reset”: Brazil’s Rousseff to visit Washington in June

"Hitting 'reset:' Brazil's Rousseff to visit Washington in June"

W. Alejandro Sanchez

Blouin Beat: World

May 6, 2015

Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2015/05/06/hitting-reset-brazils-rousseff-to-visit-washington-in-june/

On June 30, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff will visit Washington D.C. to meet with President Barack Obama, a highly anticipated meeting given the tensions between the two governments, and leaders themselves, over the past two years.

Historically speaking, relations between the U.S. and Brazil have never been strong. While an in-depth discussion on the history of Washington-Brasilia relations is outside the scope of this analysis, it suffices to say that both nations have strived to be regional leaders, with the U.S. obviously enjoying the upper hand. For example, during the 1964 coup in Brazil (which installed a military regime that ruled until 1985), the U.S. sent a carrier group, headed by the USS Forrestal, to monitor the situation and intervene in favor of the coup-plotters if necessary.

Relations took a turn for the worst in 2013, when NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden revealed that the intelligence agency he worked for had spied on foreign leaders and entities. U.S. espionage operations on Iran or North Korea would hardly be shocking news, but Snowden revealed that the NSA had spied on U.S.-friendly leaders, including Rousseff. According to reports, the Brazilian head of state’s phone calls were monitored, “as well as Brazilian embassiesand … the state oil corporation, Petrobras.” This prompted severe tensions between Brasilia and Washington, resulting in Rousseff canceling a trip to Washington in October 2013. She also heavily critiqued U.S. intelligence operations during a speech at the United Nations in September of the same year.

However, bilateral relations may finally be set to improve. Rousseff was elected this past October 2014 for a second presidential term, coinciding with Obama’s remaining year and a half in office. Already, there have been several positive diplomatic initiatives such as Vice President Joe Biden’s presence at Rouseff’s inauguration in January. Moreover, the two heads of state met at the Summit of the Americas, which was held in Panama this April. The Summit is generally regarded as a major victory for Obama, as he was received well by his fellow hemispheric leaders and even met with Cuban President Raúl Castro in a historic face-to-face. The U.S. president also met with Rousseff, which has been interpreted as a strong step toward improving relations. Obama praised Brazil by declaring that “[it] is obviously not only one of the most important countries in the hemisphere, but is a global leader on a whole range of issues.”

Hence, Rousseff’s upcoming visit to Washington is important, as it will help maintain this diplomatic momentum. Nevertheless, the Brazilian leader probably does not expect to go back to Brasilia empty handed. She has declared her interest in bilateral cooperation in areas like “alternative energies, science, technology, and education.” Moreover, Brazil’s objective is to continue making headway in the U.S. weapons market following the purchase by the U.S. Air Force of some 20 Super Tucano military aircraft, produced by the Brazilian company EMBRAER.

Finally, there is the question of whether the trip will commence negotiations toward a visa-waiver regime. This option has been on the table for some time, but an agreement has not been reached. According to data from the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, over 2.2 million Brazilian citizens entered the U.S. in 2014. This makes Brazil the country with the fifth most travelers coming to the U.S. in that year, behind only Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and Japan.

In other words, Brazilians want to continue coming to the U.S. — though how well the Brazilian middle class will be able to maintain its purchasing power in view of the country’s economic problems is another story.

The Brazilian head of state’s trip comes after a series of major (generally peaceful) protests throughout Brazil. Some of the most outspoken protesters demanded the president’s impeachment. Given these domestic woes — not to mention the recent Petrobras scandal and Rousseff’s alarmingly low popularity — she could benefit greatly from not only a diplomatically successful trip to Washington, but also a trade or tourism-related agreement that will broadly benefit her citizenry. It’s in Rousseff’s best interests to deliver something positive when she returns from Washington.

VOXXI: The Snowden affair: Can the U.S. influence Cuban foreign policy?

The Snowden Affair: Can the U.S. influence Cuban foreign policy?
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
August 31, 2013
Originally published: http://www.voxxi.com/snowden-affair-cuban-foreign-policy/

It appears that the Latin American chapter of the Edward Snowden saga will not end anytime soon. New claims have surfaced about Snowden’s attempts to flee to Latin America in order to avoid extradition to the U.S.

According to a recent article by the Russian daily Kommersant, the U.S. may have been surprisingly successful in pressuring Cuba to deny entry to the NSA whistleblower. If this turns out to be true, it begs the question over whether, in 2013, the U.S. can exercise influence over Cuban foreign policy.

A brief summary of the Snowden saga

As Snowden hopped around the globe evading U.S. authorities, there was rampant speculation regarding which country would ultimately grant him asylum.

The international affair began when he fled from Hong Kong to Russia in late June. From there, it was expected that he would board an Aeroflot flight that would take him from Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport to Havana, Cuba, where he could not be detained by U.S. government officials.

But Snowden did not leave the airport, and Aeroflot flight SU150 departed Moscow with seat 17A, his scheduled seat on the aircraft, empty.

What followed was a game of guesswork regarding where Snowden would flee, as Latin American countries began offering themselves as safe destinations.

For some time, it was believed that he would travel to Ecuador. In addition, the governments of countries including Bolivia, Nicaragua, and Venezuela declared that they would accept Snowden, although, ultimately, he did not travel to any Latin American nation.

Ultimately, Snowden remained in a Moscow airport terminal from late June until August 1, when the Russian government finally granted the U.S. citizen temporary asylum, allowing him to leave the Sheremetyevo airport and reside in Moscow.

Changes in Cuba – U.S. Relations

Cuba is currently going through a transitional period as Raul Castro has stated that he will retire from the presidency in 2018. Unless another Castro steps into power, this will effectively end the Castro dynasty that has been at the helm of the island since the country’s 1958 revolution.

Changing of the guard in Havana is occurring alongside other progressive initiatives, like the slow liberalization of the Cuban economy.

At the same time, it is worth noting that the Obama Administration has taken steps to ease some of the embargo’s restrictions. Certainly, Obama has not closed the detention center in Guantanamo Bay as promised, but other positive developments have occurred. For example, in 2011, Obama relaxed some travel restrictions regarding traveling to the Caribbean island.

In addition, there has been some diplomatic rapprochement between the two governments. Namely, Washington and Havana held immigration talks this past July. The meeting was the first since January 2011, aiming to “discuss implementing 1994 and 1995 agreements that regulate travel between the United States and Cuba, known as the U.S.-Cuba Migration Accords.”

Can the U.S. Influence Cuba in 2013?

After these events, and in the context of evolving Washington-Havana relations, a Russian newspaper, Kommersant, recently published an article declaring that the U.S. had successfully pressured the Cuban government to deny Snowden’s entrance into the country.

The article is problematically filled with unnamed sources making verification of such an assertion next to impossible.

Verification aside, the Cuban government wasted little time in condemning the article. Specifically, longtime Cuban leader Fidel Castro published a commentary in the Reflexiones webpage of Cubadebate.cu on August 27.

In his article, Castro writes that he admires how valiant and just Snowden’s declarations were. He then wrote that the allegations by Kommersant are a lie and that the daily is a “mercenary” publication.

Given Washington’s desire to apprehend Snowden, it is logical to assume that it have warned nations not to give him asylum. For example, in mid-July, it was reported that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called Venezuelan Vice President Elías Jaua and warned him not to accept Snowden.

But Cuba under the Castros has always had a certain “mystique” of not bowing to U.S. wishes and openly challenging its influence in the Western Hemisphere during the Cold War (and in the post-Cold War world). This is best evidenced by the incidents like the Bay of Pigs invasion and the Missile Crisis.

In the conclusion of his Cubadebate.cu article, Castro declares, “It’s absolutely clear that the U.S. will always try to pressure Cuba […] but not for nothing we withstand 54 years defending – and whatever additional time is necessary – against the criminal economic blockade of the powerful empire.”

Following Cuba’s rich history of antagonism toward U.S. influence, the Castros would certainly be embarrassed to be caught agreeing to Washington’s whims.

Read more: http://www.voxxi.com/snowden-affair-cuban-foreign-policy/#ixzz2dauHZjoE

VOXXI:Why is Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa granting Edward Snowden asylum?

Why is Ecuador's President Rafael Correa granting Edward Snowden Asylum
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
June 25, 2013
Originally published: http://www.voxxi.com/why-ecuador-edward-snowden-asylum/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=jo

Edward Snowden, the whistleblower who publicized a surveillance program carried out by the National Security Agency (NSA), may spend his immediate future in Ecuador, which has agreed to grant him asylum.

This recent development has put the small South American nation at the center of the global media, something akin to what happened in June 2012, when Quito granted asylum to Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

What is the logic behind Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa’s recent foreign policy decisions, particularly his granting asylum to individuals such as Snowden?

A Collision Course?

Correa’s lengthy presidency (he was first elected in 2006) has been characterized by his recurrent clashes with Washington and his intention to distance his county from U.S. influence. The country made global media headlines in 2012 when it granted asylum to Julian Assange, founder of the website Wikileaks and wanted by the Swedish government on charges of sexual assault.

Assange, an Australian citizen, has been living in the Ecuadorian embassy in London for the past year, and it is unclear if he will leave the embassy anytime soon.

Now, Ecuador may be the future home of Edward Snowden. Snowden is currently in Moscow, where he should have boarded a flight that would have taken him to Havana, Cuba and then to Ecuador. However, the American whistleblower reportedly was not on his scheduled flight to Cuba.

The Edward Snowden affair is not the first time Washington and Quito have clashed. Back in 2009, President Correa refused to renew an agreement that allowed the U.S. military to operate a base in Manta. This base had been a critical cornerstone of Washington’s anti-drug operations in South America.

Most recently, Ecuador declared its intention to leave the Inter-American Defense Board (IADB), which is based in downtown Washington. The IADB is an autonomous agency within the Organization of American States, which has been historically critiqued for being Washington’s watchdog over the Western Hemisphere.

Quito justifies its decision by arguing that Ecuador must focus its multilateral defense relations on fellow South American nations, particularly via the Union of South American Nations.

Although Quito has decided to leave the IADB, it is simultaneously trying to influence other Western Hemisphere agencies. Namely, Ecuador recently put forth suggestions for major reforms within the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights which included moving the Commissions’ headquarters from Washington to Argentina.

Correa takes Center Stage

The question is: Why did Correa accept Edward Snowden when he knew the United States would disapprove? The South American leader was re-elected this past February with a comfortable margin – he obtained 56 percent of the vote while his closest opponent, Guillermo Lasso, obtained only 23 percent.

This striking victory (which suggests that he is supported by the majority of the population) may have emboldened him to execute other aggressive foreign policy decisions. Even before granting asylum to Assange and Snowden, Correa was regarded as having an anti-Washington ideology. Recent events only further reinforce this view.

Nevertheless, Ecuador is a small country with limited natural resources to make it a global economic powerhouse. It does possess significant quantities of oil, which has helped the country survive the global financial crisis.

Ecuadorian financial officials have continuously praised the country’s economic growth in recent years, but while economic stability affords Correa the luxury of focusing on foreign policy instead of domestic economic issues, his country’s oil reserves are not abundant enough to be utilized as a diplomatic weapon to gain allies, like the late Hugo Chavez did in Venezuela.

The extent to which Ecuador is isolating itself from the international community is debatable. Certainly, Washington and countries across Europe will not look upon the decision to grant asylum to Julian Assange and Edward Snowden with friendly eyes.

One can only wonder how Ecuador’s foreign policy is being debated in Quito, and what type of advice Correa is receiving from his ministerial cabinet, including the minister of foreign affairs, Ricardo Patiño, and diplomatic corps when it comes to his recent decisions.

On the other hand, such bold moves that upset “el imperio” (as the United States is commonly labeled) will likely make the nations of ALBA (Chavez’s pet project)—including Bolivia, Cuba, and Venezuela—declare their diplomatic support for Ecuador. In a March meeting, ALBA nations expressed their support for Ecuador in its ongoing dispute with the oil company Chevron.

It is likely that La Paz, Havana, and Caracas will similarly display their support for Correa’s decision to accept Snowden.

At the same time, it is debatable to what extent Washington will be able to exercise pressure on Ecuador for its role in the Edward Snowden scandal. Washington could push for some kind of trade sanction, but Correa clearly has little interest in cementing trade relations with the United States, as Quito is seeking more integration with fellow ALBA states.

For example, this past April, ALBA’s members came together for a summit in Guayaquil to discuss further integration initiatives, such as the group’s virtual currency (the Sucre), and the creation of a new agency, Eco ALBA, to promote financial aid between the bloc’s members.

Understandably, future analyzes will debate whether the Ecuadorian president should be regarded as Chavez’s successor, and if he is indeed actively trying to embrace this role. While Correa is not trying to become the new Chavez, he is nonetheless trying to make a mark and give the impression that his country is no “pushover.”

But because Ecuador is not profiting in any real way from accepting Snowden, other than by angering the United States even further, the real question here is who is formulating Ecuador’s foreign policy – is it created by a consensus of senior policymakers, or solely by Correa.

Read more: http://www.voxxi.com/why-ecuador-edward-snowden-asylum/#ixzz2XFvg7bPK

Quote: Univision: Why Ecuador Is a Good Asylum Destination for Edward Snowden

Why is Ecuador a Good Asylum Destination for Edward Snowden
By: Manuel Rueda
ABC Univision
June 24, 2013
Originally published: http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/News/ecuador-good-asylum-destination-edward-snowden/story?id=19476802#.UcjAj85Yu0z

He was recently called a traitor by Secretary of State John Kerry, and is now officially wanted in the U.S. for espionage. But Edward Snowden, the NSA leaker who flew from Hong Kong to Russia over the weekend, probably made a good move for himself on Sunday, by asking for asylum in Ecuador.

Snowden's asylum request was read out on Monday morning by Ecuador's foreign minister Ricardo Patino. In the letter, Snowden asks the Ecuadorean government to consider granting him political asylum because he is being persecuted in the U.S. for using his right to free speech to reveal information on government abuses. He also says that chances of a fair trial are slim in the U.S., where he may be charged with treason and is likely to face life in prison or the death penalty.

Patiño explained that the asylum request was currently "under review." But the foreign minister also made some "reflections" on this case, which will sound like music to Snowden's ears.

"The government of Ecuador puts principles above [political and commercial] interests," Patiño said. "In this case human rights principles."

"We would have to ask ourselves who has betrayed who, [in the Snowden case]" Patiño continued. "Did [Snowden] betray the interests of humanity, or did he betray the interests of certain political elites, in a certain country."

These statements suggest that Snowden will probably get asylum in Ecuador. An interesting twist of fate if you consider that this whistleblower had initially said that he would seek refuge in Iceland, because of its strong internet freedom laws.

But why did Snowden go for Ecuador, and not some other country that would happily host a CIA nemesis? Consider this:

1. Ecuador is already protecting Julian Assange

The Wikileaks founder has been holed up in the Ecuadorian embassy in London for a year, avoiding British officials who want to extradite him to Sweden. Assange has not been allowed to head to Ecuador, which granted him asylum last year on humanitarian grounds because British officials will not allow him to leave the embassy without arresting him.

Since Assange took refuge in the Ecuadorian embassy last summer however, the South American nation has not buckled to pressure from British officials who say that they are obliged to arrest Assange and send him to Sweden where he faces sexual assault charges. In fact, Ecuador's foreign minister recently visited London to present the British government with a series of legal arguments that would force the British to allow Assange to board a plane to Ecuador. The UK did not budge, but Ecuador proved that it is quite a plucky nation when it comes to defending high-profile refugees.

2. Ecuador has weak extradition treaties with the U.S.

Like many countries in the western hemisphere, Ecuador has an extradition treaty with the U.S. But as BBC Mundo notes, the treaty between Ecuador and the U.S. excludes crimes that are committed with "political motifs." As long as Snowden can prove that he broke his oath of secrecy for political reasons instead of, say, for personal profit, he will not be eligible for extradition to the U.S.

3. The Government of Ecuador profits politically from having Snowden around

Unlike Iceland, the Ecuadorean government has a proven record of saying no to U.S interests, so it is much more likely to tell the U.S. government to take a hike when it asks for Snowden's extradition.

President Rafael Correa has backed environmental lawsuits, against Chevron for example, that accuse the U.S. company of polluting large swathes of the Amazon rainforest. In 2009, Correa also refused to renew the U.S. military's lease on an airforce base in the Pacific port of Manta despite requests by U.S. diplomats to renew the lease, as the base was being used for anti-narcotics flights.

Alex Sanchez, an international security analyst at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs says that providing asylum to Snowden wins political points for Ecuador's leftist president.

"Correa wants international recognition, [as a defender of human rights]," Sanchez said. "This also allows him to show [domestically] that he is not a lackey of the U.S. like previous presidents of Ecuador."

The decision to grant asylum to Snowden would, of course, generate diplomatic tensions between Ecuador and the U.S. But Sanchez said that such tensions might not be too risky for Ecuador.

Sanchez noted that Venezuela is still allowed to sell oil to U.S. refineries, for example, even while its government blasts out anti-U.S. rhetoric in international forums and accuses U.S. embassy personnel of being part of plots to "destabilize" that country. If the U.S. government fails to take any reprisals for such matters, Ecuador is probably figuring that there will be few reprisals from the U.S. over Snowden's asylum claim, Sanchez said.

4. President Correa will be around for a while

From Snowdens perspective, the political situation in Ecuador provides another important bonus. President Correa was just re-elected this year and has four years left in his current term. If Correa pushes for a law that allows for an unlimited number of re-elections like Chavez did in Venezuela, he could also be around for more than that.

Snowden will probably be safe in Ecuador while Correa is at the helm. Though as Foreign Policy magazine notes, he will have to come up with a long-term strategy to ward off legal challenges, and even with a way to make a living for himself, after the Ecuadorean government tires of paying for his bills.
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