VOXXI: The #9N protests in Venezuela and the Caracas-Havana connection

The #9N protests in Venezuela and the Caracas-Havana connection
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
November 12, 2013
Originally published: http://voxxi.com/2013/11/12/9n-protests-venezuela/

On November 9, thousands of people across Venezuela took to the streets to protest the presidency of Nicolas Maduro and his (mis)handling of the national economy.

The protests, called Marcha Autoconvocada (Self-convened March) quickly went viral on Twitter with the hashtag #9N, and took place not only in Caracas but in other major cities, such as Maracaibo, Valencia, San Cristobal and Merida.

Popular discontent

The #9N protests have generally been reported as non-violent, despite of a couple of isolated incidents and the deployment of the Bolivarian police. Unsurprisingly, representatives from the opposition coalition, the Mesa de la Unidad Democratica (MUD), are trying to maintain this momentum of citizen discontent as the country is scheduled to have municipal elections  on December 8.

The reasons for the protests are fairly straightforward. The country’s economy is worsening and inflation seems to worsen by the day. Recently, President Maduro took the controversial decision of seizing theDaka chain of electronic stores, arguing the wealthy elites of the city were purposely keeping some of the merchandise in order to increase the prices of their goods.

The Venezuelan head of state declared in a speech that the government would sell off the merchandise (i.e. plasma television sets) at lower prices to the Venezuelan citizenry.

According to a November 11 article in the Venezuelan daily El Nacional, since October 1, President Maduro has talked about the economy 24 out of 40 days on Venezuelan TV – an average of just over once every two days.

Moreover, the Venezuelan head of state has made a habit of proclaiming that there are conspiracies that seek to destabilize his government. The masterminds of said conspiracies include (unsurprisingly) the U.S., former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe and also three Venezuelan opposition leaders who Maduro has dubbed the “trilogy of evil.”

Additionally, #9N protestors expressed their concern about citizen insecurity as crimes across the country are also alarmingly constant. Just this past weekend (November 9-10), 29 people suffered violent deaths in Caracas alone.

The Havana connection

But there was apparently another issue that Venezuelans protested against on #9N, namely the close relations between their government and Cuba. Several photos and Youtube videos have been uploaded, apparently showing demonstrators from #9N who were burning Cuban flags. Some of the flags had messages such as “Get out of Venezuela” or “The Castros must Leave” written on them.

Without a doubt, the late President Hugo Chavez forged a close alliance with Cuba while he was in power, and he was a close friend of both Fidel and Raul Castro.

This close personal and governmental relationship was best exemplified by the joint projects that the two countries carried out, mostly to benefit the Caribbean island.

One good example is the subsidized Venezuelan oil that Cuba obtained from the Chavez government. Another Cuban-Venezuelan project was the initiative to build a nickel processing center in Holguin, Cuba – this past July it was reported that the project has been put on hold for four years.

Additionally, internet access in Cuba has improved thanks to an underwater fiber optic cable that originates in Venezuela.

Moreover, an ailing Chavez spent roughly three months in Havana (from December 2012 to February 2013) where he underwent surgery to treat his cancer.

This sparked a constitutional debate in Venezuela regarding who was in charge of the country and whether presidential elections should be called for.

The extent of the Cuban government’s influence over the daily decisions of the Venezuelan government is debatable.

Without falling into a discussion of conspiracy theories, we can note that several Venezuelan and other media outlets have reported for years the presence of Cuban military and intelligence personnel in the South American state, who apparently act in an advisory capacity to the Venezuelan armed forces.

For example, a September 2013 article in the Spanish daily ABC argued that Cuban military presence in Venezuela dates back to 2007, and that the structure of the Venezuelan armed forces has been remodeled to resemble that of the Cuban military.

Meanwhile, the Venezuela daily El Nacional reported this past July 29 that Cuban General Ramiro Valdes, a veteran of the Cuban Revolution and current Vice President of the Cuban Council of Minister, is the person who oversees Cuban’s military presence in Venezuela.

The recent #9N protests in Venezuela have demonstrated the growing discontent by several sectors of the population regarding where the country is heading, particularly when it comes to a deteriorating economy. Moreover, this past Saturday, Venezuelans protested what they see to be a growing Cuban influence in their country, particularly in the armed forces.

To what extent the Venezuelan opposition can capitalize on this popular discontent will be seen in December’s municipal elections.

VOXXI: Venezuela: No more Hugo Chavez in the electoral ballot

Venezuela: No More Hugo Chavez in the Electoral Ballot
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
April 12, 2013
Originally published: http://www.voxxi.com/venezuela-no-chavez-electoral-ballot/

With only days left before Venezuelans go to the polls to elect their first president in the post-Hugo Chavez era, the two contenders, interim Vice President Nicolas Maduro and the opposition leader Governor Henrique Capriles Radonski, are carrying out their final rallies, declarations and mandatory campaign promises to clinch vital supporters. While Maduro seems to have a comfortable lead, some polls give Capriles a glimmer of hope that victory is possible. Regardless who wins on Sunday, this may be the time to step back and simply reflect on the fact that this is the first time Venezuelans will not see Chavez on an electoral ballot since 1998.

Hugo Chavez at the Micro Level

Over the past weeks, there has been an abundance of analyses that have been published about the legacy of Hugo Chavez and his chavista vision for the hemisphere. Much has been written about how he changed Latin American politics, as he was a fierce opponent of Washington’s influence in the Western Hemisphere. This is best exemplified by his support for the creation of multinational organizations, which did not have the U.S. or Canada as members, such as ALBA, CELAC and UNASUR.

At the domestic level, Chavez’s election signaled a change of the guard regarding the political parties that had ruled Venezuela for decades before him. His support base depended on the masses of lower-class Venezuelan citizens who constantly voted for him, allowing him to re-write the constitution and permitting him to be re-elected. Meanwhile, his party, the PSUV, lost legislative elections in 2010, arguably exemplifying that chavismo, contrary to what Chavez and his supporters said, revolved more around Chavez’s persona rather than the party’s ideology or other party leaders. And in spite of the numerous criticisms directed against Chavez throughout his tenure (the author of this commentary has previously critiqued the Venezuelan leader’s friendship with Peruvian dictator Alberto Fujimori), the truth is that the majority of Venezuelans voted for him again and again. If he was alive and ran for a new presidential term in 2018, he probably would have been elected.

I am reminded of the Federalist Papers, which said in #51, “if a majority [is] united by a common interest, the rights of the minority will be insecure.” Was it democratic and fair for the Venezuelan minorities (in this case the middle/upper socioeconomic classes), that one individual remained in power for over a decade because he was popular with the poorer masses? Perhaps not, but then again, for decades the majority of the Venezuelan population had its fate decided by the upper classes who controlled the political parties and government.

The Democratic Caudillo

In a previous commentary for VOXXI, I discussed continuismo in Latin America. This term refers to hemispheric heads of state remaining in power for long periods of times, often by changing their countries constitution and rigging elections, whether they were popular among the masses or not. In the past couple of decades, a new type of caudillos emerged in the region. Besides Chavez, we saw the rise of popular leaders like Colombia’s Alvaro Uribe (a fierce Chavez opponent), Brazil’s Lula da Silva and Argentina’s Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. Their popularities allowed them to modify their national constitutions and also win re-elections. Arguably, Uribe could still be in power today; he was certainly popular enough in Colombia to have won a third presidential term, if he had been constitutionally allowed to run. It is ironic that even though Uribe and Chavez did not particularly like each other, as the two countries came close to war in a 2008 incident, Uribe could have followed Chavez’s footsteps to remain in power, riding on his popularity. The term “democratic caudillo” probably sounds like an oxymoron, but then again, Latin America tends to be the land of the politically bizarre.

Growing up in Venezuela sans Chavez

At the beginning of this article, I mentioned how this will be the first time since 1998 that Chavez is not on a presidential electoral ballot in the Venezuela. When scholars, academics and journalists write an article, which mentions the years that a head of state was in power, the reader may just take this as a fact. However, let us reiterate that we are talking about a head of state that ruled from 1999 to 2013. A whole generation of Venezuelan children have grown up only seeing Chavez as president, but this will change beginning Sunday. Of course, other presidents have ruled their countries for much longer (i.e. the recently deposed leaders in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya), and the change of the guard from Chavez to the next president (most likely Maduro) may not provoke any Venezuelan to have a nervous breakdown. Nevertheless, this is still an important psychological milestone.

While I was writing this commentary, I spoke to my Venezuelan friends, and I asked them if it feels weird that they will go to the polls very soon and will not see Chavez’s name for the first time in their adult life. One noted that she has voted six times since she was 18, and that today Venezuelans have adjusted not only to voting quite frequently but also to the constant confrontation and discrimination in her country’s national politics.

The overwhelmingly response to my query was that “Chavez aún está en todas partes” (Chavez is still everywhere). They were referring to not only Chavez’s legacy regarding leaving behind him a polarized military or the fact that the country’s governorships and the National Assembly are still overwhelmingly chavistas. My friends also referred to the simple fact that Chavez’s image is indeed everywhere throughout Venezuela, for example, due to the plethora of graffiti made of Chavez’s image that decorates the facades of walls. Furthermore, another friend argued that there is now not just a power vacuum but also a social one, as people will inevitably compare future leaders with how Chavez would have done things – Chavez supporters tend to say “Maduro no es Chavez” (Maduro isn’t Chavez) or “en nombre de nuestro comandante” (in the name of our commander). A simple sign of how Venezuela, particularly its citizens, will move into a post-Chavez future may be exemplified if the numerous Chavez murals are ever painted over.

Read more: http://www.voxxi.com/venezuela-no-chavez-electoral-ballot/#ixzz2QGLFpMGi

BLOUIN: Venezuela’s citizen security looms before election

Venezuela's citizen security looms before election
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin Beat: Politics
April 11, 2013
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatpolitics/2013/04/11/venezuelas-citizen-security-looms-before-election/

On April 14, Venezuela will hold presidential elections to choose the successor of the recently-deceased President Hugo Chávez. A plethora of polls have been conducted to predict who will win this coming Sunday. So far, interim President Nicolas Maduro appears to have a commanding lead, though recent polls may give a glimmer of hope to the opposition candidate, Governor Henrique Capriles Radonski. The global debate around this upcoming election has focused much more on Chávez and his legacy than the substantial issues facing whomever fills Chávez’s shoes. Among the most pressing and prominent of these is the question of citizen security, an issue Capriles and Maduro returned to again and again throughout their campaigns. And with good reason: Venezuela is South America’s most violent country.

For several years, crime has been rampant throughout Venezuela’s major cities. The Ministry of the Interior and Justice has reported that approximately 3,400 murders occurred nationally between January and April of 2013. Past statistics about the murder rate are equally discouraging. In 2012 there were over 16,000 murders across Venezuela, an average of 56 murders per 100,000 citizens. The daily newspaper El Universal reported in August 2011 article that 8,839 citizens were killed nationwide from January to June of that year — with 3,100 taking place in Caracas. A major problem for internal security is a lack of sufficient security personnel patrolling the streets. In February 2013, the government admitted that the CICPC, the police branch in charge of carrying out criminal investigations, has a deficit of approximately 6,000 officers.

Caracas’ strategy for dealing with this alarming crime has focused during the last years of Chávez’s reign on seizing weapons from civilians. In 2011, the government destroyed a reported 50,000 confiscated guns. (The weapons were melted to produce some 60 tons of iron utilized in public housing projects.) The post-2011 numbers show, however, that this failed to do much to ameliorate the crime rate — and in any case, Venezuela is riddled with black markets for weapons trafficking, a situation worsened by the fact that the country is next to Colombia, which makes it fairly easily for criminals to obtain guns.

It would be unfair to suggest that Chávez failed to enact any initiatives to improve citizen security. In September 2012, the government acquired 1,073 patrol cars for police departments across the country. And as the International Crisis Group (ICG) noted that same year, these problems began long before Chávez came to power in 1999. Nevertheless, throughout his tenure, Chávez arguably did little to address internal security. The ICG has stated that there is a significant presence oforganized crime throughout the country, the aforementioned massive quantities of weapons in the hands of civilians, as well as high levels of police corruption. The former president did support the infamous colectivos (armed civilians street patrols, sort of an extreme neighborhood watch). But — as is the case with most vigilante organizations — the utility of these squads, many of whose members have been implicated in criminal activity themselves, is questionable at best.

It is informative to contrast this dismal domestic picture with the vigorous efforts Chávez made to improve Venezuela’s military capacities. Throughout his lengthy rule, the government spent billions of oil dollars on tanks, aircrafts and military technology from Russia, Spain and China (one need only look as far back as the end of March for an example: an unspecified number of Russian BMP-3 amphibious infantry vehicles arrived in Puerto Cabello). A former military officer himself, Chávez’s goal was to strengthen his military in case of an inter-state war, either with the U.S. or Colombia. Such a war never materialized, and the post-Chávez government, whether under Maduro or Capriles, will inherit a country with plenty of tanks and warplanes — none of which are especially helpful for upping police patrols, cracking down on corruption within security forces, or reducing that sky-high murder rate.

Quote: Jamaica Observer: US think tank queries future of ALBA, Petrocaribe without Chávez

US think tank queries future of ALBA, Petrocaribe without Chávez

Jamaica Observer
March 11, 2013
Originally published: http://m.jamaicaobserver.com/mobile/latestnews/US-think-tank-queries-future-of-ALBA--Petrocaribe-without-Ch-vez

WASHINGTON (CMC) — With the death of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, a major United States think tank is querying the future of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) and the Petrocaribe oil agreement with Caribbean countries.

The Washington-based Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA) noted that the ALBA bloc is made up of a number of Caribbean and Latin American states, whose leaders were “friendly to Chávez, such as Ecuador’s Rafael Correa and Bolivia’s Evo Morales.

“President Correa recently said that the revolution was larger than one man and would continue even in the event of Chavez’s death,” COHA said.

“Nevertheless, it is debatable whether any of ALBA’s heads of state, (including Venezuela interim president Nicolas Maduro) are charismatic enough and have the same interest in the alliance to keep it afloat,” it added.

COHA noted that Correa was re-elected last month, and Morales is scheduled to run for a new presidential term in 2014.

“It remains to be seen whether anyone will be able to carry out Chavez’s vision,” it said.

On Petrocaribe, COHA said that Chávez “used oil recourses to not only improve the quality of life of poor Venezuelans, but also as an integral part of his foreign policy.

“After coming to power, he expelled Western oil companies operating in the country and replaced them with Chinese and Russian based companies. In addition, Venezuela donated millions of barrels of oil to needy Caribbean states, particularly Cuba, but also to countries like Trinidad and Tobago.

“Without Chávez, it is questionable how Venezuela’s oil will be extracted. Should elections be called for and Capriles Radonski comes to power, would he accept, once again, Western oil companies.

“Furthermore, even if Maduro continues to govern, will Venezuela continue to provide such high quantities of oil, essentially as gifts, to Cuba and other regional states,”  COHA said, adding that a “critical aspect of Venezuela’s post Chávez government is how its foreign policy will be structured”.

Venezuelans will go to the polls to a elect a new president in mid-April and while Maduro, will run for the presidency, Chavez’s rivals will rally around a single candidate, Miranda state Governor Henrique Capriles Radonski, the opposition alliance, known as the Democratic Unity Table, said in a statement.

Capriles lost by 11 percentage points in the October 2012 election, which was the closest presidential campaign of Chavez’s 14 years in power.

Chávez died last week after a long struggle with cancer.

VOXXI: Hugo Chávez successor: Possible scenarios in Dec. 16 elections

Hugo Chavez Successor: Possible Scenarios in Dec. 16 Elections
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
December 12, 2012
Originally published: http://www.voxxi.com/hugo-chavez-successor-dec-16-elections/

After suffering a relapse, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has traveled once again to Cuba to undergo medical treatment for the cancer he’s battled for at least a year. Before his departure, he named Vice-President Nicolas Maduro as his successor.

Unsurprisingly, there has been a flurry of speculation regarding how dire Chávez’s health is and whether he will be able to recover (early reports state that the operation was successful) and continue ruling until the end of his term in 2019 or, in a worst-case scenario, should Venezuela be preparing itself for a post-Chávez era.

The head of state hinted that, should new elections be held in his country, he was confident that Maduro would earn the votes of Venezuelans. If indeed Chávez’s health eventually becomes too frail for him to continue the goals of his administration and his revolution, the million-dollar question will be whether his Bolivarian blueprint for Venezuela can be carried out without him at the helm.

Hugo Chávez successor named ahead of Dec. 16 elections

According to the Venezuelan Constitution, if the head of state cannot complete his six-year term within the first four years, new presidential elections must be call within 30 days. With Maduro now in control of the country while Chávez is in Cuba, it will be interesting to see if he will carry through Chávez’s ultimate legacy of being a steadfast constitutionalist.

In an extreme scenario, if Chávez does not return and elections are called for, then it’s anyone’s guess as to what might happen. Maduro may very well call for elections and run as the candidate for Chávez’s Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV). But does the interim head of state enjoy the same levels of popularity as Chávez among the masses? After Chávez’s latest medical trip to Cuba, the PSUV had an emergency meeting in which its major leaders signed an agreement calling for unity and loyalty.

However, as an analyst put it in Americas Quarterly: “It is likely that that the PSUV will grant Chávez his wish, and if the time comes, vote for Maduro for no other reason than to pay their last respects. But it is less certain whether this loyalty will be automatically extended to Maduro if he assumes office.”

Henrique Capriles emerges as the likely option

While Maduro has had a meteoric rise to power, he certainly is no Chávez and arguably lacks his charisma and popularity. Another question is whether or not the political opposition would be able to effectively organize itself in time for these possible elections and furthermore, who the presidential candidate would be. Henrique Capriles Radonski, who gave Chávez a run for his money in the recent October presidential elections, emerges as the likely option. Chávez defeated Capriles by around 10 points during the election—a bigger difference than was originally predicted, but it still demonstrated that Venezuela’s political opposition had managed to unite around a single candidate and that there is a growing number of dissatisfied voters. Capriles has yet to announce if he would run if new presidential elections are called for, but it is safe to say that pundits, politicians and the Venezuelan population in general may be wondering if Capriles could defeat Maduro.

Opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles talks to supporters and media members as he concedes defeat in the presidential elections at his campaign headquarters in Caracas, Venezuela, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012. Venezuela’s electoral council said late Sunday President Hugo Chávez has won re-election, defeating challenger Henrique Capriles. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)

It is important to highlight that Venezuela will have regional elections this coming December 16. A total of 23 regional governors, 229 members of legislative councils and eight indigenous representatives will be chosen. It will be interesting to see how Chávez’s party does in these elections and what it means for the future of the Bolivarian revolution.

Moreover, Capriles will be rerunning for the governorship of the state of Miranda, and, should he be reelected, this may give him a boost to push for a new attempt at the presidency. Ironically, Elias Jaua, the former Vice President before Maduro, is also running as a PSUV candidate in Miranda against Capriles. The outcome of the governor’s race in Miranda can be used as a foreshadowing as to what could happen in the national elections if they were to be called.

Finally, there is the ever-present question of how the military, the Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivarana (FANB), will react to these new developments. While the armed forces are supposed to be neutral and apolitical according to constitutional mandate, it is no secret that Chávez has populated the military’s leadership with individuals loyal to him. In addition, he has kept his armed forces happy with his cause by spending billions of oil dollars on a variety of military purchases from Russia and China over the past decade. Occasionally the armed forces have declared that they would not accept a head of state that wasn’t Chávez, but what will happen if their former military comrade is physically unable to continue ruling? Another unknown factor will be if the Bolivarian military will be as loyal to Maduro as they have been to Chávez, as well as whether or not they would accept Capriles or any other individual as commander in chief if elections occur and the opposition wins the presidency.

Don’t cry wolf before it shows up

People, one holding an image of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez, gather to pray for him at Simon Bolivar square in Caracas, Venezuela, Tuesday, Dec. 11, 2012.  (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

The commentaries discussing Chávez’s health and the likelihood of a Venezuela without the outspoken head of state are similar to the plethora of analyses that have been written over the past decades regarding Cuba’s Fidel Castro and his health. Ultimately, in Cuba’s case, Castro has managed to outlast and outlive most of his detractors and enemies; now the question becomes if Chávez will follow in his mentor’s footsteps, overcome his health issues and continue his rule of the oil-rich Venezuela.

During his time as head of state, along with some controversial and memorable statements, it would be unfair to say that Chávez’s rule has only been detrimental to the country. Several of his social initiatives have been very beneficial to the lower echelons of Venezuelan society, which is where Chávez’s support originates.

Nevertheless, when people think of the Venezuelan government and the Chávez’s party, they focus more on Chávez than on any other figure. His power has held for more than a decade, but if his health worsens to the point where he can no longer rule, the question becomes if the Venezuelan people will vote for Maduro to lead in Chávez’s place, or if the Venezuelan armed forces will support a possible non-Chávez head of state. The December 16 elections will provide us with a better idea of what is in the mind of the Venezuelan citizenry and other possible outcomes that might occur in the near future.

Read more: http://www.voxxi.com/hugo-chavez-successor-dec-16-elections/#ixzz2F94zFAGf