VOXXI: Will Obama mention Cuba in State of the Union speech?

"Will Obama Mention Cuba in State of the Union speech?"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
January 20, 2015
Originally published: http://voxxi.com/2015/01/cuba-obama-state-of-the-union/

President Obama will deliver his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, and, unlike previous years, there is expectation regarding whether the future of U.S.-Latin America relations will be addressed or simply overlooked.

The address comes days after lifting several sanctions against Cuba, hence it will be interesting to see if the U.S. head of state will pressure the now Republican-controlled Congress to consider lifting the decades-old embargo as well.

(Some) Sanctions Lifted

This past Friday, January 15, the U.S. Department of Treasury announced that, following President Obama’s historic December 17 speech, a revised Cuban Assets Control Regulations (CACR) and Export Administration Regulations (EAR) will be published, reflecting the changes in Washington’s new policy towards the Caribbean island.

While U.S. citizens still cannot travel to Cuba freely, the December 17 announcement offers more alternatives to travel to the Caribbean island. For example, U.S. citizens can now go for “professional research and professional meetings; educational activities; religious activities; public performances, clinics, workshops, athletic and other competitions, and exhibitions,” among other reasons.

Moreover, the Treasury Department has announced, “travelers will now be allowed to use U.S. credit and debit cards in Cuba.” This is quite a significant development, as it will permit visitors to spend more money in Cuba without having to exchange it for the local currency first.

As for bringing Cuban goods into the country, the new policy states “U.S. travelers to Cuba will be allowed to import up to $400 worth of goods acquired in Cuba for personal use. This includes no more than $100 of alcohol or tobacco products.” Considering that cigars and rum are Cuban trademarks, even a relatively small amount like $100 USD still allows for plenty of cigars and bottles of liquor to be brought back to the United States.

Nevertheless, while these are important developments, the state-controlled Cuban media has highlighted that large segments of the embargo remain in place. For example, the newspaper Juventud Rebelde published an op-ed on January 17, which stresses how “open tourism” is still prohibited, as well as a ban on imports and exports (with few exceptions) between the two countries.

Concerns Regarding the Cuban Government

Predictably, Republican lawmakers have critiqued the President’s initiatives – case in point, Senator (and Republican presidential hopeful) Marco Rubio has declared that “I’m going to continue to oppose the … Obama-Paul foreign policy on Cuba because I know it won’t lead to freedom and liberty for the Cuban people, which is my sole interest here.” (Rubio meant Senator Rand Paul, who has supported the White House’s new policy).

Moreover, the debate on the new U.S.-Cuba relations and its effects on the island is not only taking place in Washington. The Cuban digital newspaper 14ymedio, run by the renowned Cuban opposition blogger Yoani Sanchez, published a commentary on January 16 about what renewed relations may mean for the Cuban Government in the long run. Specifically, the article was concerned that the country’s economy will be transformed into “state-run capitalism, controlled by an authoritarian political-military elite” with ties to U.S. capital.

The difference here is that Senator Rubio is in favor of maintaining the embargo, while even Cuban critics of the Castro regime want the embargo to be lifted, though the latter also want renewed U.S.-Cuba relations to go hand in hand with changes in the Cuban government.

So far, the Cuban Government has complied with U.S. requests, including releasing the U.S. citizen Alan Gross and 53 political prisoners. Nevertheless, a valid concern is whether the powers-that-be in Havana plan to remain in power even as relations with Washington improve.

The island is scheduled to hold municipal elections in April (over 14 thousand spots are up for grabs); this will be the first major test of the Cuban government in the post-agreement era to showcase that it is willing to allow opposition voices in its decision-making bodies.

Negotiations and Internal Politics

U.S.-Cuba relations are going through a very important momentum as, apart from more relaxed travel and commercial policies, diplomatic initiatives are increasing. At the time of this writing, Senator Patrick Leahy (VT-D) is leading a congressional delegation on a three-day trip to the Caribbean state.

Moreover, this upcoming January 21-22, Roberta Jacobson, the Assistant Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere, will lead another delegation to Cuba to discuss migration issues as well as the reestablishment of diplomatic ties.

Given these high-ranking delegations traveling to Cuba, and the fact that U.S.-Cuba relations have been widely discussed by the global media since the December announcement, it will be interesting to see if President Obama maintains his current momentum by mentioning Cuba in his upcoming State of the Union address.

The recently freed Gross will attend the event, so the President could mention him as segue to asking congress to discuss the future of the embargo.

VOXXI: Improving U.S.-Cuba relations: Bad for the Dominican Republic’s tourism industry?

"Improving U.S.-Cuba Relations: Bad for the Dominican Republic's Tourism Industry"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
December 19, 2014
Originally published: http://voxxi.com/2014/12/us-cuba-dominican-republics-tourism/

The world continues to analyze and ponder the future of U.S.-Cuba relations following President Obama’s landmark decision to seek the normalization of relations with the Caribbean state. However, there is another factor to keep in mind: how will improved U.S.-Cuba relations and the now realistic possibility that the embargo will be lifted in the near future affect the Caribbean and, in particular, the Dominican Republic?

By focusing on the present and futures status of Caribbean tourism, one could argue that a Washington-Havana rapprochement may not be beneficial for everyone.

Bad for tourism?

The State Department has published a fact sheet of the key points of President Obama’s December 17 speech. One section discusses an expansion of travel to the island, stating that U.S. travelers will now be able to go to Cuba for family visits; journalistic activities; professional research and professional meetings; educational activities; public performances, clinics, workshops, athletic and other competitions; and exhibitions, among others.

To phrase this another way, there are now more options that U.S. citizens can use to travel to Cuba. Simply travelling to the island for tourist purposes is still an issue, but we can expect to see more U.S. colleges open study-abroad programs in the island (for the record, several universities already have them, including American University).

The issue here is that Americans will now want to take their dollars to spend in exotic Cuba, instead of visiting other Caribbean states. After President Obama gave his speech, the news website Dominicantoday.com posted a short story which argued that the changes between Washington and Havana “will likely affect Dominican Republic in sensitive economic areas such as tourism, as local industry leaders have for years cautioned that a Washington-Havana thaw would surely siphon off the number of visitors to the Caribbean’s biggest economy.”

The aforementioned article does not mention which “local industry leaders” have warned about this possibility, but this issue does deserve greater discussion.

Facts and the future

The Dominican Republic and Cuba were the two major beneficiaries of tourism in the Caribbean throughout most of 2014. According to a December report by the Caribbean Tourism Organization, some 4.2 million tourists traveled to the Dominican Republic between January and October, while Cuba received 2.2 million between January and September. Jamaica comes at a slightly distant third place with 1.7 million.

These numbers make Cuba and the DR adversaries, as they are the two major destinations for tourists (i.e. Americans, Canadians or Europeans). Nevertheless, a 2005 study on Caribbean tourism muses that when the status quo changes between the U.S. and Cuba it is feasible to foresee a dramatic change in the U.S. market which “will change the rules of the game of Caribbean tourism.”

Given President Obama’s recent speech, it does seem like the rules of the game are about to change. The Dominican Republic’s newspaper Diario Libreexplains how companies like the cruise line Carnival Corp., the discount airline JetBlue and even Orbitz are now ready for the embargo to be fully lifted in order to begin offering deals for American tourists to travel to Cuba. What this means regarding revenue loss for the Dominican Republic remains to be seen.

It is worth highlighting that it is not just the possibility of Cuba opening for business that may threaten tourism to the DR in the near future. Other Caribbean states are also receiving more visitors; case in point is Haiti, which received over 362 thousand tourists in the first nine months of 2014 – this is a 21% increase from the same period in 2013. Likewise, Venezuela is turning to its Caribbean beaches in order to jumpstart its flagging economy. Hence, while Cuba is the DR’s major tourism adversary, we should not forget other nations that are also promoting tourism to enrich their coffers.

As a final point, it is important to remember that if American tourists choose to visit Cuba instead of the DR (whenever the embargo is lifted) this will not be solely because of the chance to visit an exotic location like Cuba, which has been closed to Americans for decades – although this is an obvious reason. If tourism to the DR were to decrease, it would be also because of internal issues that the DR government has yet to fix, such as citizen insecurity.

As we continue to discuss the future of U.S.-Cuba relations after December 17, it is similarly important to keep in mind what this rapprochement will mean for the Caribbean region. The effect of closer U.S.-Cuba relations on tourism to the Dominican Republic may not have an obvious connection at first sight, but if the embargo is lifted and Americans do begin pouring into Cuba, the coffers of the various Caribbean states that depend on tourism revenue, including the DR, will take a big hit.

VOXXI: US-Cuba relations after President Obama’s speech

"US-Cuba Relations After President Obama's Speech"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
December 17, 2014
Originally published: http://voxxi.com/2014/12/us-cuba-relations-obamas-speech/

Today, Wednesday 17, US-Cuba relations were shaken down to their core due to two recent events.

First there was a prisoner swap between Washington and Havana, which saw the release of U.S. citizen Alan Gross, detained in Cuba, and three Cubans detained in the U.S. Secondly, President Barack Obama gave a speech at noon which charts a new roadmap for US-Cuba relations.

Nevertheless, as is the nature of Washington-Havana relations over the past decades, how much of this is hyperbole and how many objectives ultimately materialize remains to be seen.

Alan Gross spent nearly five years as he was accused by the Cuban government of being a U.S. spy while he was working in Cuba for USAID. Similarly, the three Cubans are part of the “Cuban 5,” an alleged spy network set up by the Cuban government in the U.S. The five were arrested in 1998 and convicted in 2001, two were released years later but three remained in prison.

It’s not the objective of this article to discuss whether either Gross or the Cubans were actually involved in any kind of espionage activities. Unsurprisingly, both Havana and Washington argue that their citizens were wrongfully arrested.

The deal comes as a shock to everyone, as it was generally believed that neither government would release their respective prisoners anywhere in the near future.

Obama’s Speech

Shortly after the announcement of the Gross-Cuban 5 deal was made public, President Obama gave a brief but historical speech in which he outlines his vision for the future of US-Cuba relations.

The key word is that he seeks to “normalize” relations between the two governments.

The State Department has released a fact sheet of the speech’s key points, and we will briefly discuss a few important issues:

1. President Obama plans to participate in the 2015 Summit of the Americas, which will take place in Panama.

Historically, Washington has opposed Cuban participation in this summit. Case in point, the 2012 Summit in Colombia was generally an embarrassment for the host nation as the Colombian leadership had to “uninvite” Cuba in order to accommodate to Washington, which did not want a Cuban delegation present.

Meanwhile, throughout his speech, President Obama did not directly address the participation of the Cuban government in Panama, but rather said that “Cuban civil society must be allowed to participate […] consistent with the region’s commitments under the Inter-American Democratic Charter.”

In other words, Washington could still potentially block a Cuban official delegation from going to Panama.

2. President Obama managed to ease travel and trade restrictions to Cuba in 2011, however, only the U.S. Congress can terminate the embargo.

The fact to keep in mind is that after the recent Midterm elections, both chambers will now be controlled by the Republican Party. With conservatives like Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) among the Republican ranks, it is doubtful that this will happen. President Obama’s speech successfully placed pressure on the U.S. legislative body post-2015 to act on the future of US-Cuba relations.

3. Given the promises made by President Obama, which include that “licensed U.S. travelers to Cuba will be authorized to import $400 worth of goods from Cuba,” one must now ask, what will be the Cuban government’s next move?

Almost parallel to Obama’s speech, President Raul Castro also took to the airwaves to address his nation. First and foremost he praised the release of the Cuban 5 prisoners and he congratulated President Obama’s decision to agree to the swap.

He also “proposed” to the U.S. to adopt initiatives to improve relations in the spirt of the Charter of the United Nations. Nevertheless, Castro mentioned that in spite of the prison swap and renewed diplomatic ties, “the problem has not been solved.” The Cuban leader was referring to the embargo, which Castro said hurts Cuba’s economy and population.

While President Castro’s speech is similarly important, as it is not often that a Cuban leader praises a U.S. president, it remains to be seen if Havana will carry any new initiatives in the near future to keep the momentum going forward.

Relations between Cuba and the U.S. have been at a standstill for years and it seems that whenever there is a positive development, some kind of crisis occurs – case in point, the 2011 lifting of some restrictions was followed by the 2013 incident in which Cuba shipped weapons to North Korea.

For those who want to see US-Cuba relations improve, hopefully 2015 will be a year of positive breakthroughs between the two neighbors.

Quoted in: Obama láme kubánske ľady

Obama láme kubánske ľady

By: Andrej Matisak

Pravda (Slovakia)

December 18, 2014

Originally published: http://spravy.pravda.sk/svet/clanok/339866-obama-lame-kubanske-lady/

Kuba a Spojené štáty včera oznámili výmenu niekoľkých väzňov. Zároveň budú krajiny rokovať o nadviazaní plných diplomatických stykov, čo by sa mohlo udiať už za niekoľko týždňov. Havana je v nemilosti Washingtonu od revolúcii v roku 1959. Ľavicové povstanie zvrhlo diktátora Fulgencia Batistu. Autoritárskeho lídra nahradil komunisti. Ich diktatúru odvtedy viedol Fidel Castro, ktorého od roku 2008 nahradil brat Raúl. Proti Kube už viac ako polstoročie platí americké ekonomické embargo.

"Opustime dedičstvo kolonializmu aj komunizmu,“ vyhlásil v stredu americký prezident Barack Obama. Raúl Castro potvrdil nadviazanie diplomatických vzťahov, ale uviedol aj to, že názorové rozdiely medzi Havanou a Washingtonom pretrvávajú.

Kuba z väzenia prepustila Američana Alana Grossa, ktorého Havana označovala za špióna. USA zároveň poslali domov troch Kubáncov, ktorých v osemdesiatych rokoch odsúdili v Miami za špionáž.

Americký prezident Barack Obama podľa agentúry AP hovoril v utorok 45 minút s Raúlom Castrom. Je to prvý takýto kontakt lídrov USA a Kuby od roku 1961. Tajné rokovania o zmenách vo vzťahoch dvoch ideologických nepriateľov už bežia niekoľko mesiacov. USA však všetko podmieňovali prepustením Grossa.

Zmiernenia embarga

• americké ekonomické embargo proti Kube platí od roku 1960
• Biely dom niektoré jeho časti zmierni, úplne zrušiť ho však môže len Kongres
• Američania budú môcť jednoduchšie cestovať na Kubu
• budú si môcť priviezť tovar v hodnote 400 dolárov a alkohol a tabakové výrobky do hodnoty 100 dolárov pre vlastnú potrebu
• po desaťročiach sa tak v Amerike legálne objavia slávne kubánske cigary

"Obama vždy podporoval oteplenie vzťahov, ale politické okolnosti mu to nedovoľovali,“ povedal pre Pravdu Carlos Seiglie, odborník na kubánsku ekonomiku a politiku z Rutgersovej univerzity.

Podľa experta si zase Kuba uvedomuje, že v budúcnosti bude čeliť ešte náročnejšej ekonomickej situácii. "Cena ropy klesá a Venezuela tak zásadným spôsobom znižuje finančnú pomoc pre Kubu. Havana stráca najsilnejšieho spojenca. Preto je ochotná pristúpiť na zmierenie sa s USA,“ uviedol Seiglie.

Nadviazanie diplomatických vzťahov však neznamená koniec ekonomického embarga. Obama zmierni niektoré jeho vplyvy, zrušiť ho však môže len Kongres, kde sa proti tomu určite postaví veľká časť republikánov.

"Mojím záujmom je, aby Kuba urobila kroky k demokracii a slobode. Nič, čo dnes prezident oznámil, k tomu nesmeruje,“ povedal pre televíziu Fox News vplyvný republikánsky senátor Marco Rubio. Pochádza z Floridy, kde žije početná kubánska menšina.

Embargo USA sa ešte nekončí

Alejandro Sanchez z Rady pre hemisférické vzťahy pripomína, že výmena väzňov a kroky vedúce k znormalizovaniu vzťahov medzi Havanou a Washingtonom automaticky nepovedú k ukončeniu amerického embarga. "Verím, že kubánska vláda bude čoraz otvorenejšia,“ povedal tiež pre Pravdu expert na Latinskú Ameriku.

Čo bude teraz hlavnou výzvou pre vzťahy Kuby a USA?

Bude to Summit amerických štátov v Paname v roku 2015. Na zatiaľ poslednom v Kolumbii v roku 2012 Američania trvali na tom, aby sa na ňom Kuba nezúčastnila. Takže Bogota Havanu nepozvala, hoci všetci ostatní z Latinskej Ameriku ju tam chceli mať. Spojené štáty už povedali, že odmietajú účasť Kuby aj v Paname. Zmení sa to teraz? Uvidíme.

Smeruje Amerika aj k zrušeniu viac ako 50-ročného embarga?

Len americký Kongres ho môže úplne zrušiť. Ten však budú od roku 2015 ovládať republikáni. Preto nepredpokladám, že dôjde k dohode na ukončení embarga.

Čo sa dá teraz očakávať od kubánskej vlády v politickej rovine?

Dúfajme, že bude čoraz otvorenejšia. Bol by to dobrý argument pre tých z medzinárodného spoločenstva, čo presadzujú zrušenie embarga. Vláda už dovolila disidentke Yoani Sánchezovej aj iným Kubáncom cestovať bez špeciálneho povolenia. Sánchezová môže tiež publikovať noviny 14ymedia v digitálnej forme. Verím, že tento trend bude pokračovať. Musíme si však počkať aj na to, kto bude Kubu riadiť, keď Raúl Castro skončí.