Showing posts with label uk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label uk. Show all posts

Monday, October 27, 2025

Shephard: "Advances in USV technology help develop tomorrow’s hybrid fleet"

 


"Advances in USV technology help develop tomorrow’s hybrid fleet"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Shephard

27 October 2025

Published: https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/naval-warfare/advances-in-usv-tech-help-develop-tomorrows-hybrid-fleet/

As services like the Royal Navy and US Navy aim to develop hybrid fleets to reduce reliance on and dangers to crewed vessels, L3Harris, Metal Shark and Red Cat step forward.

The revolution of autonomous systems is not occurring solely on land and in the air. Uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) and systems that can be integrated aboard these vessels – some of which are meant to defeat other uncrewed systems – are being produced, tested and fielded. 

 

 

Monday, August 11, 2025

ZM: "L3Harris talks to ZM about successful Iver4 AUV trials, hybrid fleets and EW aircraft" / "L3Harris habla con Zona Militar sobre las exitosas pruebas del AUV Iver4, flotas híbridas y aviones de guerra electrónica para la Fuerza Aérea Italiana"

 

 


"L3Harris talks to ZM about successful Iver4 AUV trials, hybrid fleets and EW aircraft"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Zona Militar

9 August, 2025 

Published: https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2025/08/09/l3harris-talks-to-zm-about-successful-iver4-auv-trials-hybrid-fleets-and-ew-aircraft/

The UK Royal Navy carried out a successful test in the Mediterranean Sea of the Iver4 autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), developed by L3Harris Technologies. The trials occurred as part of the Navy’s Project Scylla; the service explained that the Project is carried out “through AUKUS [a trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States] Pillar 2, which develops advanced capabilities to benefit both Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security.” Zona Militar and a spokesperson for L3Harris discussed the recent trials, the company’s plans for the AUVs, the future of hybrid fleets and a recent contract for EW aircraft for the Italian air force.

 

"L3Harris habla con Zona Militar sobre las exitosas pruebas del AUV Iver4, flotas híbridas y aviones de guerra electrónica para la Fuerza Aérea Italiana"

 Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Zona Militar

9 de Agosto, 2025

Publicado:  https://www.zona-militar.com/2025/08/09/l3harris-habla-con-zona-militar-sobre-las-exitosas-pruebas-del-auv-iver4-flotas-hibridas-y-aviones-de-guerra-electronica-para-la-fuerza-aerea-italiana/

 

La Armada Real del Reino Unido realizó con éxito una prueba en el Mar Mediterráneo del vehículo submarino autónomo (AUV) Iver4, desarrollado por L3Harris Technologies. Las pruebas formaron parte del Proyecto Scylla de la Marina; el servicio explicó que dicho proyecto se lleva a cabo “a través del Pilar 2 de AUKUS [una alianza trilateral de seguridad entre Australia, Reino Unido y Estados Unidos], que desarrolla capacidades avanzadas para beneficiar la seguridad tanto en el Indo-Pacífico como en el Euro-Atlántico.” Zona Militar y un portavoz de L3Harris hablaron sobre las recientes pruebas, los planes de la empresa para los AUV, el futuro de las flotas híbridas y un contrato reciente para aviones de guerra electrónica (EW) para la fuerza aérea italiana.

 

Thursday, May 15, 2025

Zona Militar: "Polaris develops a new MRZR Alpha, works on international orders" / "Polaris desarrolla un nuevo MRZR Alpha y trabaja en pedidos internacionales"

 

"Polaris develops a new MRZR Alpha, works on international orders"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Zona Militar

15 May 2025

Published:  https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2025/05/15/polaris-develops-a-new-mrzr-alpha-works-on-international-orders/

As the readers of Zona Militar know, the Argentine Army recently received a batch of Polaris MRZR vehicles. Polaris is a well-known supplier of light and modular tactical vehicles to global armed forces, and ZM recently spoke with the company at the Modern Day Marine (MDM) to learn more about upcoming deliveries and projects.

"Polaris desarrolla un nuevo MRZR Alpha y trabaja en pedidos internacionales"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Zona Militar

15 de Mayo, 2025

Publicado:  https://www.zona-militar.com/2025/05/15/polaris-desarrolla-un-nuevo-mrzr-alpha-y-trabaja-en-pedidos-internacionales/

Como saben los lectores de Zona Militar, el Ejército Argentino recibió recientemente un lote de vehículos Polaris MRZR. Polaris es un conocido proveedor de vehículos tácticos ligeros y modulares para las fuerzas armadas globales, y ZM habló recientemente con la empresa en Modern Day Marine (MDM) para conocer más sobre las próximas entregas y proyectos.

 

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Breaking Defense: "Brazilian navy to acquire two British Albion-class ships"

 

 

"Brazilian navy to acquire two British Albion-class ships"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Naval Warfare

Breaking Defense

8 April 2025

Published: https://breakingdefense.com/2025/04/brazilian-navy-to-acquire-two-british-albion-class-ships/ 

The Brazilian navy and the UK's Royal Navy have signed a letter of intent to acquire the HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark.


Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Shephard: "Regent’s Viceroy targets “early March” for US Marine-aided sea trials"

 


"Regent’s Viceroy targets “early March” for US Marine-aided sea trials"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Shephard

11 February, 2025

Published: https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/air-warfare/regents-viceroy-aims-at-early-march-for-us-marine-aided-sea-trials/

The sea trials will focus on de-risking the seaglider with US Marine involvement after Regent signed a partnership to help develop the prototype, against a backdrop of growing military interest from the UK and Japan.

 


Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Zona Militar: "BAE Systems begins upgrading U.S. Navy’s MK 45 guns to Mod 4 configuration" / "BAE Systems comenzó la actualización de los cañones MK 45 de la Armada de EE.UU. a la configuración Mod 4"


 

"BAE Systems begins upgrading U.S. Navy’s MK 45 guns to Mod 4 configuration"

 Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Zona Militar

4 February 2025

Published: https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2025/02/04/bae-systems-begins-upgrading-u-s-navys-mk-45-guns-to-mod-4-configuration/

BAE Systems was awarded a contract for the US Navy, worth over US$70 million, to upgrade the fleet’s Mk 45 5-inch Gun systems and ancillary equipment. The modernization of the cannons occurs at a time of significant tensions between Washington and other global naval superpowers; moreover, US warships operating in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden regularly shoot down drones and missiles fired by Houthi rebels from Yemen. BAE spoke with Zona Militar about the importance of this award.

 

"BAE Systems comenzó la actualización de los cañones MK 45 de la Armada de EE.UU. a la configuración Mod 4"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Zona Militar

4 de Febrero, 2025

Publicado: https://www.zona-militar.com/2025/02/04/bae-systems-comenzo-la-actualizacion-de-los-canones-mk-45-de-la-armada-de-ee-uu-a-la-configuracion-mod-4/

BAE Systems recibió un contrato de la Armada de los Estados Unidos, valorado en más de 70 millones de dólares, para modernizar los sistemas de cañones Mk 45 de 5 pulgadas de la flota y su equipo auxiliar. La modernización de estos cañones se produce en un contexto de tensiones significativas entre Washington y otras potencias navales globales; además, los buques de guerra estadounidenses que operan en el mar Rojo y el golfo de Adén derriban regularmente drones y misiles lanzados por los rebeldes hutíes desde Yemen. BAE habló con Zona Militar sobre la importancia de este contrato.

 

 

Monday, April 4, 2022

International Policy Digest: "Kazakh Billionaire Mukhtar Ablyazov Suffers Setback after Setback"

"Kazakh Billionaire Mukhtar Ablyazov Suffers Setback after Setback"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Opinion

International Policy Digest

3 April, 2022

Originally published: https://intpolicydigest.org/kazakh-billionaire-mukhtar-ablyazov-suffers-setback-after-setback/

A Facebook page reportedly managed by or at least linked to Mukhtar Ablyazov, a Kazakh businessman and fugitive, is busy these days, routinely posting criticisms of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, several posts have also criticized the Kazakhstani government, arguing that it is helping Moscow evade sanctions.

Criticism of any government regarding their stance on the war is fair, but it is problematic when Ablyazov does it, as he is accused of embezzling around $7.5 billion from his country.

 

Continue Reading...

Wednesday, January 1, 2020

Geopolitical Monitor: Business as Usual with Beijing as Uyghurs Languish in “Education Camps”


"Business as Usual with Beijing as Uyghurs Languish in 'Education Camps'"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Geopolitical Monitor
Opinion
December 30, 2019
Originally published: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/business-as-usual-with-beijing-as-uyghurs-languish-in-education-camps/


As hundreds of thousands of Uyghurs, ethnic Kazakhs and ethnic Kyrgyz continue to be imprisoned in so-called “education camps” in the People’s Republic of China, governments around the world continue to interact with Beijing, including deciding to establish diplomatic ties with the Chinese government instead of the Republic of China (Taiwan), as has been the recent case of Kiribati and the Solomon Islands.

Every country has a duty to protect and promote its own national interests, however it is problematic that many governments continue to praise Beijing in spite of obvious, and well-documented by now, human rights violations against an entire culture.
 

Continue Reading...

Monday, August 28, 2017

IPD: China Has a New Military Base in Djibouti. Here’s why it Matters



China Has a New Military Base in Djibouti. Here’s why it Matters

By: W. Alex Sanchez & Scott Morgan
International Policy Digest
August 11, 2017
Originally published: https://intpolicydigest.org/2017/08/11/china-military-base-djibouti/

The People’s Republic of China has inaugurated its first military base overseas in the Republic of Djibouti. The project further cements Beijing’s interest in the African continent, and exemplifies how the latter continues to be utilized as part of a geopolitical game of influences by global military powers.

China’s Base
Beijing has stated that the base will be utilized to monitor maritime commerce that crosses the Suez Canal and passes through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden into the Indian Ocean. A July 11 article by Xinhua explains that “the base will ensure China’s performance of missions, such as escorting, peace-keeping and humanitarian aid in Africa and west Asia” and also it will “be conducive to overseas tasks including military cooperation, joint exercises, evacuating and protecting overseas Chinese and emergency rescue, as well as jointly maintaining security of international strategic seaways.” The base was inaugurated on 1 August and the Beijing – Djibouti deal will reportedly last until 2026.

There are certainly valid reasons for the project, as pirates off the coast of Somalia have targeted civilian vessels for years. As a response, the Europe Union created the Naval Force Operation Atalanta, to combat piracy in the Horn of Africa. Apart from European navies, countries like Colombia and China have also provided vessels to protect this important maritime route. China is particularly at risk of suffering if maritime trade through the Indian Ocean suffers, as the Asian giant imports much of its resources.

As for the facilities, they are supposed to be a port for Chinese naval platforms to dock, resupply and continue their patrolling operations. Nevertheless, the complex appears to be suited for other tasks. The renowned company Stratfor published on 26 July an assessment of the base, which included aerial photos of the facilities. The article explains how the base has an “extensive security perimeter, which features three layers of defense,” as well as “a large underground component [which] measures approximately 23,000 square meters.” Stratfor also explains that there is a “tarmac and a row of eight hangars which suggest that aircraft such as helicopters could be based there someday. However, it is unlikely that the facility will host fixed-wing aircraft because at 400 meters the tarmac is much too short to accommodate fighter jets or even larger drones.”

Indeed, China’s first base abroad should be regarded as a major, well-defended complex.

Bases-A-Plenty
To be fair, China is not the sole hemispheric power to have military facilities in the African continent. In fact, the U.S. already has a base in Djibouti: the US Naval Expeditionary Base, situated at Djibouti’s Djibouti–Ambouli International Airport, also known as Camp Lemonnier which is shared with France. France also has access to naval base of Héron; Italy has BMNS-Base Militare Nazionale di Supporto (National Support Military Base); while Japan’s defense facilities are called Deployment Airforce for Counter-Piracy Enforcement (DAPE). In other words, five nations, out of which three are nuclear powers, with Tokyo and Washington having issues (to phrase it mildly) with Beijing, have facilities in a country measuring approximately 23,200 km2.

While it is outside of this commentary’s analysis, one must wonder what is the rationale of President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh (in power since 1999 and re-elected in 2016 for a fourth term) to allow five countries, to have military deployments in his nation’s territory. One of the explanations has to be financial as the leased military bases to the five nations will add funds to the coffers of the country. Secondly these bases could discourage Eritrea from any further adventures as border issues between the neighbors escalate. Of course this also means that the quality of the Djiboutian military will improve as well as the foreign powers will probably carry out training operations with local forces.
Moreover it is worth noting, the U.S. has several other bases across the continent, known as Forward Operating Locations (FOLs) and Cooperative Security Locations (CSLs). As for France, the European nation has become very involved in Mali to combat al-Qaeda linked groups. A May 19, 2012 report by Al Jazeera highlights how Paris has “1,600 French soldiers stationed [in Mali], on the largest French military base outside of France.” Additionally, France has a base in Gabon. India, another rising global power like China, has the Indian Overseas Military Base at Assumption Island in the Seychelles. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has British Army Training Unit in Kenya and the International Military Assistance Training Team (IMATT) in Sierra Leone. Similarly, recent reports hint at Turkey opening up training facilities in Somalia with plans announced recently to open an additional facility in said country.

Finally, it is important to note that the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are increasingly active in Africa as well. As one of the co-authors has pointed out previously, the GCC “recognize[s] that across Africa’s Muslim-majority countries a host of violent and extremist Islamic groups pose a dire threat to Arabian Peninsula security and GCC interests in Africa.” The UAE has already opened up a base in Somaliland region, and it will be interesting to see if other GCC nations take similar initiatives in the near future.

21st Century Military Geopolitics
Today, the Africa continent constitutes 54 independent nations (depending on whether to count Somalia as a single state, which is another issue). Nevertheless, while the era of colonialism is over, neo-colonialism seems to be alive and well. There are a plethora of works in recent years about how Africa continues to be taken advantage of, with very little trickling down to benefit the masses. For example, Tom Burgis’ The Looting Machine discusses the role of transnational companies that profit from Africa’s natural resources.

Moreover, various extra-hemispheric governments have increased their presence in Africa by establishing military facilities to battle specific security threats (mostly rebels, pirates or terrorist movements) but which have the added bonus of creating strong defense-related bonds between the host country and the outside power. The United States, by far, has the biggest military presence in Africa in terms of number of bases as well as personnel (though figuring out an exact number is tricky given the secrecy of these deployments). However former colonial powers like France, Italy and the UK, as well as non-Western states like India, Japan, Turkey and GCC states also have defense roles in the region. Hence, it should not be a surprise that China is establishing a base in Africa, as Beijing is simply following a pattern established by several other nations.

With that said, there is the obvious concern about how the ongoing mistrust and animosity between Washington and Beijing will play out in Djibouti. Will the facilities of both nations manage to co-exist peacefully as they are there, at least theoretically, to face common security threats?


The views expressed in this article are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect any institutions with which the authors are associated.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

E-IR: Angelina Jolie Pitt at LSE: Can Actors Be Effective Educators?


"Angelina Jolie Pitt at LSE: Can Actors Be Effective Educators?"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
E-International Relations
June 2, 2016
Originally published: http://www.e-ir.info/2016/06/02/angelina-jolie-pitt-at-lse-can-actors-be-effective-educators/



Angelina Jolie Pitt has been appointed a visiting professor in practice at the Centre for Women, Peace and Security, part of the London School of Economics (LSE). Mrs. Jolie-Pitt’s newest distinction has not been without criticism, namely whether this is a LSE publicity stunt. This brings up an interesting issue: the role of Hollywood in IR education.
In addition to Jolie Pitt; Jane Connors, Amnesty International; Madeleine Rees, Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom; and Lord William Hague, former UK Foreign Secretary, have also been accepted. A LSE press release explains that the School ‘confers the title of Visiting Professor in Practice on persons who have appropriate distinction within their area of (non-academic) practice.’ These prominent individuals will be part of the Centre’s new MSc program on women, peace and security, a one-year course which starts this Fall. The Guardian explains that ‘visiting professors [will play] an active part in giving lectures, participating in workshops and undertaking their own research.’
The criticism against LSE’s decision to hire Jolie-Pitt focuses on whether it is a marketing ploy by the university to obtain media attention and to foster enrollment. For example, an op-ed in The Guardian argues that ‘if Professor Jolie Pitt acquired her academic title without a single formal academic qualification, and her fellow amateur’s gender insights do not promise to exceed the average gnat’s, is it worth investing one year and a lot of money in pointless study?’ Apart from her impressive filmography, Jolie Pitt, has had a long standing interest on the issue of refugees and the effects of conflict on civil society. Most notably, in 2012 she was named the Special Envoy of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Prior to this appointment, she was a UNHCR Goodwill Ambassador from 2001-2012. In 2003 she published a book based on her work with refugees. She has also raised awareness about humanitarian crises by producing films. For example, in 2012 she directed ‘In The Land of Blood and Honey,’ a fictional story which centers in the Bosnian War. More recently, ‘First They Killed My Father: A Daughter of Cambodia Remembers’, another film that she is directing, addresses the human rights violations of the Khmer Rouge regime.
Hollywood productions, be them TV shows or films, are a standard tool utilized by members of academia when teaching IR courses. Case in point, the author of this post watched films like ‘Dr. Strangelove or: How I learned To Stop Worrying and Love The Bomb’ and ‘Gallipoli’ for classes that addressed Mutually Assured Destruction and World War I, respectively. In order to broaden the discussion of what will be the future of humanity, think tanks are looking towards fiction writing and Hollywood for novel ideas and foresights. For example, the Project for the Study of the 21st Century has published a series of fictional short stories where authors muse what the year 2030 will look like. Similarly, the Center for International Maritime Security  has also published short stories about future conflicts. Likewise, the Argentine think tank Centro Argentino de Estudios Internacionales recently issued an analysis of the BBC television show ‘War Room’. Even more, the Atlantic Council created a project called The Art of the Future, which included analyses of the future of warfare. The initiative organizedseveral events in which artists, including comic book publishers and Max Brooks (the author of World War Z), interacted with members of the IR community.
Hollywood is an integral part of the IR world, including the jargon that scholars utilize. IR scholars routinely look to fiction for inspiration, to draw parallels and to speculate about the future. Additionally, it is not surprising to find Hollywood celebrities that support a plethora of causes: Leonardo DiCaprio is a well-known supporter of the fight against climate change; Emma Watson was appointed UN Women Goodwill Ambassador in 2014; while Actor Sean Penn interviewed Mexican kingpin Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman. As for Angelina Jolie, her concern for refugees worldwide is unquestionable. The issue is whether this (strong) personal interest on an issue, in addition to some fieldwork, can translate into effective teaching.
Accepting non-academics to enhance a program’s pedigree is standard practice at universities. It is not surprising to find that retired diplomats, military officers or government officials teach seminars focusing on the issues that they worked on throughout their careers. Ultimately, the question is how well Jolie Pitt’s participation will help provide an effective education to LSE students. According to the Centre’s website ‘students will take the core courses [and will] choose further relevant courses from [other] departments.’ In other words, apart from taking classes with the professors in practice, they will also attend regular classes with LSE’s faculty members offering a balance blending scholarship and practitioner.
Angelina Jolie Pitt has not published a plethora of books and essays on peer reviewed journals on the issue of refugees in conflict zones. Nor has she spent decades working for a government or multinational agency that focuses on this issue. However, her own experiences can help graduate students learn more about the status of refugees and post-conflict areas, particularly in Africa, the Balkans and Cambodia. There is nothing wrong with accepting (not “hiring,” as this is an unpaid position) several Professors in Practice, so long as the entire faculty of a Masters program is not staffed exclusively by them. In fact, there is plenty of intellectual wealth to be gained from cross-pollination when it comes to teaching. After all, IR is an interdisciplinary field, where different points of view should be heard.
Certainly, there is a degree of publicity that influenced LSE’s decision to invite Jolie Pitt, but this should not be a reason to stop good intentions; like those of a renowned actress with a strong commitment to raising awareness about refugees.
*The author would like to thank Erica Illingworth for her helpful suggestions.

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Presentation: CIMSEC CFAR: Neither Side Appears Ready for War, Falklands Malvinas Islands Analysis


"Neither Side Appears Ready for War, Falklands/Malvinas Islands Analysis"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Presentation
CIMSEC - 2016 CFAR Conference
March 24, 2016

W. Alejandro Sanchez presents at the 2016 CFAR Conference, presented by the Center for International Maritime Security and hosted by the Center for Naval Analyses.


Wednesday, February 17, 2016

CIMSEC: How Peaceful is the South Atlantic?


"How Peaceful is the South Atlantic?"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Center for International Maritime Security
February 17, 2016
Originally published: http://cimsec.org/21903-2/21903

Admiral Eduardo Bacellar Leal Ferreira, commander of the Brazilian Navy, gave an interview to the Uruguayan daily El Paísthis past December 2015. The Admiral optimistically declared that “today there is no ocean more peaceful than the South Atlantic, there are no tensions that cannot be solved. We have problems in the Malvinas [Falklands] or in the Gulf of Guinea, but there are no wars. This is the only ocean where the major powers do not have warships.” This statement is an ideal starting point for an in-depth discussion of South Atlantic geopolitics.
A Conflict-Less Ocean?
Due to space issues, we cannot discuss in detail every South Atlantic maritime conflict. Nevertheless, the Brazilian Admiral is incorrect to declare that the only regional disputes are the Falklands/Malvinas and the Gulf of Guinea. A total list includes:
  • The Falklands/Malvinas: Argentina claims these islands, currently controlled by the United Kingdom (the two countries had a brief war in 1982). In 2013, the inhabitants of theFalklands held a referendum in which they voted to remain part of the UK – Argentina does not recognize the ballot.
  • Ghana and Ivory Coast: The two countries have a dispute over offshore oil drilling along their border. The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) gave an interim ruling in 2015 but a final decision is not expected until 2017.
  • Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo: In 2014, the Angolan government attempted to redraw the maritime border with the DRC in order to gain control of some 200 additional miles. The two countries have contested their border since the 1970s.
  • Equatorial Guinea and Gabon: The two countries claim theMbanie, Cocotiers and Congas islands since the early 1970s. It is believed that there are underwater oil reserves around those islands.
Preventing War
In spite of the aforementioned maritime disputes, Admiral Ferreira is generally correct when he praises the peacefulness of the South Atlantic. After all, the last confrontation in the region was the 1982 Falklands/Malvinas War.
Even more, war has been successfully prevented in other disputes: in 1978 Papal mediation helped avoid a war between Argentina and Chile in the Beagle Channel, where the Pacific and Atlantic oceans meet. Moreover, the dispute between Cameroon and Nigeria over the Bakassi Peninsula was solved via international ruling – in 2006 the two governments signed the “UN-backed Greentree Agreement[which set] the terms and timeframe for the implementation of the 2002 ruling of the [International Court of Justice], which transferred the Bakassi Peninsula from Nigeria to Cameroon.” The list of successfully mediated disputes could grow if ITLOS manages to resolve the Ghana-Ivory Coast issue or if the UN’s current mediation efforts between Equatorial Guinea and Gabon are fruitful. In other words there are plenty of examples that highlight the peacefulness of the South Atlantic.
Certainly, there is always the possibility of an unforeseen “X factor” that could jump-start a war. The battle over precious resources like oil is a likely reason as most of these conflicts have to do with control of maritime areas where large deposits of oil are believed to be located. In the case of Argentina, there is a high degree of patriotism over the Falklands/Malvinas themselves, but the recent discovery of new oil deposits by Rockhopper is another reason for Buenos Aires to desire control over them. This scenario is also plausible on the African side of the Atlantic. An October 2015 report by the Institute for Security Studies entitled “Why Africa must resolve its Maritime Boundary Disputes,” argues that “the location of oil fields and natural resources deposits can result in considerable complications when states unilaterally determine and apportion exploration blocks that infringe upon areas of disputed ownership by a neighboring state.”
Should other sources of state-revenue dry up, governments may become more willing to engage in a war, or at least aggressively push for negotiations, over any of the aforementioned maritime disputes.
New Navies But For What?
In a 2011 essay for Small Wars & Insurgencies, I argued that South America was involved in an arms race. The situation has changed in 2016, particularly among the South Atlantic states. For example, the Brazilian Navy continues with its ambitious programs, in spite of its economic woes, which include the construction of a nuclear-powered submarine, four Scorpene subs, and repairing its Sao Paulo carrier. Furthermore, in late 2015 Brazil purchased the multipurpose vessel TCD Siroco from France – it has been renamed the G-40 Bahia. Nevertheless, these purchases have not made Brazil’s neighbors perceive it as a security threat, as Uruguay’s Navy has not carried out major purchases in years while Argentina has only repaired the submarine ARA San Juan and purchased four Russian vessels that will be utilized for search and rescue operations and Antarctic research. Neither Montevideo nor Buenos Aires appear to expect an invasion from the Portuguese-speaking giant.

As for the African South Atlantic states, Equatorial Guinea commissioned a frigate, the Wle Nzas, in June 2014. “This warship is the flagship of the Equatorial Guinea Navy and it will [help] to ensure security in the Gulf of Guinea,” said President Teodoro Obiang Nguema. Meanwhile Gabon has ordered two offshore patrol vessels from KERSHIP, a joint-initiatives of PIRIOU and DCNS (though a January report by DefenceWeb argues that the contract may have been deferred). As for Nigeria, it constructed the NNS Andoni in 2012; “with a speed of up to 25 knots (46km/h), this can quickly go to intercept the pirates,” said Commanding Officer Adepegba. The country also acquired a patrol vessel from China in 2014. Finally, the Angolan government announced in late 2015 that it will purchase “two fast-attack naval craft and several coastal radar and repeater station systems worth €122 million from two subsidiaries of Italy’s Finmeccanica.”
As has been discussed in various analyses, due to the general inter-state tranquility of the South Atlantic, regional navies are looking for a new raison d’etre. Protecting natural resources and non-traditional security threats are the standard reasons. Without a doubt, Africa’s West coast continues to have a major problem with piracy, including the hijacking of transport ships, so it is in the interest of regional governments to have strong navies to monitor their waters. As for protecting natural resources within a country’s Exclusive Economic Zone, this includes both oil exploration as well as combating crimes like illegal fishing. Nevertheless, while African states have valid reasons to upgrade their naval forces, Brazil has a more difficult case regarding its projects. Without addressing the nuclear submarine or carrier by name, in his interview with El País, Admiral Ferreira argues that Brazil must maintain a deterrent force to protect its natural resources, “we have [offshore] oil fields, and if there is an energy crisis it is necessary to deter anyone from coming to Brazil to take our resources.” While there is an obvious logic to the Brazilian Admiral’s statement, it is unclear exactly who is this enemy that requires a nuclear-powered submarine to defeat.
Global Powers
Finally, Admiral Ferreira argued that no world power has vessels in the South Atlantic. That is generally true, particularly since 1986, when the United Nations created the South Atlantic Peace and Cooperation Zone, which declares that the South Atlantic is a nuclear weapons-free zone.
Nevertheless, warships from the global powers routinely cross the South Atlantic; just this past April 2015, the USS Spearhead arrived in Gabon and carried out exercises with the local navy as part of theAfrica Partnership Station. “During our visit, we’ll conduct marine-to-marine training along with medical subject matter expert exchanges, thus helping build a stronger Global Network of Navies,” said Commander Matthew Flemming. In May of the same year, the French offshore patrol vessel L’Adroit docked in Cape Town. As for the other side of the Atlantic, the USS America visited Brazil in 2014 while the aforementioned French OPV L’Adroit docked in Uruguay in mid-February 2016. Furthermore, apart from the Falklands, London also controls South Georgia and the Sandwich Islands. Moreover, the British-controlled Ascension Island was a strategically important stopover for British warships and transport vessels during the Falklands War.

Hence, Admiral Ferreira’s declaration is a slight overstatement. While there are no British battle groups patrolling the Falklands nor does the U.S. Navy have a fleet stationed in Ascension Island (though the U.S. Air Force does utilize an auxiliary field there), global powers do have a constant presence in the South Atlantic’s waters.
A South Atlantic NATO?
Even though Admiral Ferreira did not discuss South Atlantic integration, it is important to mention that that the two sides of the Atlantic have increased defense ties in recent years. For example the ATLASUR naval exercises bring South American and African navies together, while Brazil and South Africa (along with India) have carried out the IBSAMAR exercises.
Nevertheless, calls for greater South-South cooperation have not ended in some grand new maritime defense initiative. The aforementioned exercises are important, but neither Brazil nor South Africa, the two powerhouses of the South Atlantic, have taken major steps to bring together all these navies towards some common objective (i.e. forming a trans-oceanic task-force to combat maritime crimes). The region already came together in 1986 with the SAPCZ and there is already a modern precedent for various countries attempting to deal with maritime affairs – namely, the African Union’s “2050 Africa’s Integration Maritime Strategy,” which will address (and ideally solve) the continent’s maritime issues, such as border disputes. We have yet to see the South Atlantic capitalize on its general peacefulness to address non-traditional defense problems.
Final Thoughts
Brazilian Admiral Ferreira is generally correct by praising the peacefulness of the South Atlantic. Of course, an unforeseen incident could occur or a series of decisions within a government that prompts it to decide to start a war with a neighboring state. The possibility of petro-money is an enticing reason to engage in violence, particularly as this non-renewable commodity becomes scarcer in the near future or, as the aforementioned ISS report explains, “maritime boundary disputes, many long dormant, are increasingly exacerbated by a growing interest in exploring and exploiting natural resources.” Nevertheless, the region can praise itself for having avoided inter-state war in spite of several border disputes.
Currently, the South Atlantic’s maritime security issues revolve around cracking down on piracy, drug trafficking and protecting natural resources (like oil deposits and the maritime ecosystem). Robust navies, including coast guards, are an obvious requirement, but there is a thin line that separates obtaining equipment that is needed (like Argentina purchasing search-and-rescue vessels or Angola buying crafts) to other whose usage is questionable (i.e.,  Brazil’s acquisition of a nuclear submarine).

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

CIMSEC: NEITHER SIDE APPEARS READY FOR WAR: FALKLANDS/MALVINAS ISLANDS ANALYSIS


"Neither Side Appears Ready for War: Falklands/Malvinas Islands"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Center for International Maritime Security
Analysis
January 19, 2016
Originally published: http://cimsec.org/neither-side-appears-ready-for-war-falklandsmalvinas-islands-analysis/21163

Argentina has requested that the United Kingdom engage indiplomatic talks regarding control of the Falkland Islands, or Islas Malvinas, depending on which side you support. As the islands will not change hands anytime soon, with London citing a2013 referendum as proof of the Falklanders’ desire to remain in the UK, the dispute will continue. Nevertheless, in spite of occasional aggressive statements or alarmist media reports from either London or Buenos Aires, it is important to highlight that neither side has significantly increased their defense spending vis-à-vis the islands.
The War
In 1982, Argentina launched an invasion of the islands, as the military government in Buenos Aires wanted to distract the Argentine population from the country’s crumbling economy and unite the citizenry behind the junta. The Falklands War has been extensively analyzed (see such essays as “Delayed Reaction: UK Maritime Expeditionary Capabilities and the Lessons of the Falklands Conflict,” and “Facts Influencing the Defeat of the Argentine Air Power in the Falklands War”) but a word must still be said about the conflict. The war is significant because, as Dr. Ian Speller explains, it “was the first time since 1945 that a major western navy had come under sustained air attack at sea [and] it was the first time that a nuclear-powered hunter killer submarine conducted a successful attack on enemy surface units.”
The navies and air forces from both sides were actively engaged in the battle to control the Falklands. As for successful attacks, aircraft from the Argentine Air Force and Navy managed to sink British vessels like the warships HMS Sheffield and HMS Ardent, and the supply ship MV Atlantic Conveyor, among others. Meanwhile, a British nuclear submarine, the HMS Conqueror, sank the Argentine Navy’s flagship, the ARA General Belgrano.
Official Statements
To this day, Argentina continues to claim ownership of the islands. Case in point, now former-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, declared this past April that she foresaw that one day the islands would be under Argentine control. A month earlier, UK Defence Secretary Michael Fallon announced that “we are going to beef up the defence of Falkland Islands,” the obvious assumption being that the islands need protection from a possible Argentine attack. These statements come to no surprise, as over the past years Buenos Aires and London claim that the “other side” is taking aggressive steps regarding the islands.
The islands, particularly after the war, are a key part of Argentine nationalism, hence it should not be surprising that Argentina’s new head of state, President Mauricio Macri, will give the occasional nationalistic statement over the islands or call for negotiations. Nevertheless he also wants U.S. and European investment to jump start the country’s economy, so he may not be overly aggressive (after his electoral victory in November,Macri and Prime Minister David Cameron held a telephone discussion in which they agreed on forging closer commercial ties). I would argue that nationalistic statements or calls for dialogue with London from Buenos Aires are mostly for internal consumption, as a way for President Macri to show his people that he has not forgotten about the islands. After all, it would be political suicide for any Argentine president to not make the occasional patriotic declaration regarding the Falklands.
Defense Realities
Provocative calls for negotiations aside, the Argentine Navy is in no particular shape to engage in a new conflict over the islands. The Navy’s biggest acquisition in recent years was that of four Russian multipurpose ships (Aviso/Neftegaz-class), which will be utilized for search and rescue operations and scientific projects around the Antarctic. The vessels arrived to the South American nation this past December. Theoretically, the Navy could install weapons systems aboard the vessels, but it is unlikely that this will happen due to budgetary limitations. Regarding submarines the only new development is that in 2014 the ARA San Juan (a diesel TR-1700-class) was finally returned to the Navy after it underwent repairs that had taken several years to complete.
As for the Air Force, which was a critical factor in Argentina’s victories at sea during the Falklands War, just this past November it decommissioned its aging Mirage warplane fleet.The problem is that the Air Force does not have a new warplane to replace the Mirage. Over the past years there were rumors that Buenos Aires would acquire Russian Sukhoi warplanes (hence the need for London to “beef up” the defense of the islands) but this deal never materialized. Similarly, a recent deal for Israeli Kfir warplanes has been put on hold. For the time being, Argentina will have to rely on trainers, such as the Pampa III,and various, also aging, aircraft to protect its airspace.
The Air Force’s situation is so dismal that during the December 2015 inauguration ceremony of President Macri, Argentina requested that Uruguay have three of its own Cessna Dragonfly planes on alert, ready to support Buenos Aires if some crisis occurred. While this request speaks well of Argentina-Uruguay defense relations, it highlights that the Argentine military is hardly in any shape to attempt a renewed operation to take over the Falklands.
As for the UK Navy, the big news is that it is constructing two new carriers, one of which, the HMS Queen Elizabeth, should be operational by 2020. The new vessels are part of a push for greater defense spending by London. Just this past December,Secretary Fallon declared that “we have said we will maintain a minimum fleet of 19 destroyers and frigates, but as the older frigates are retired we also hope to add a lighter frigate between the offshore patrol vessel and Type 26 and to build more of those as well.” Additionally, the Royal Air Force and Royal Navy will benefit from having the new F-35 warplanes in their inventory, as “the Lightning II will be the backbone of Britain’s future carrier operations.” (Of course, how long it will take for the F-35 to be delivered is another question).
Regarding the Falklands themselves, the Royal Navy maintains the HMS Clyde stationed there as part of its South Atlantic Patrol program (in November 2015, the HMS Clyde assisted in rescuing tourists trapped in a sinking cruise ship close to the Falklands). Additionally, the British daily Express reported that this past April British troops carried out exercises in the Falklands which simulated an invasion of the islands. As for new equipment, the only major ongoing acquisition program seems to be additionalGiraffe AMB radars, manufactured by Saab.
One could argue that the British military is suffering from exhaustion due to the multiple operations it carries out around the world, from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to security operations in the Mediterranean and the Horn of Africa. Just this past December, the destroyer HMS Defender was deployed to the Mediterranean to support the French carrier Charles de Gaulle. Given its multiple ongoing operations, it’s difficult to say how long it would take London to organize a new expeditionary force that would be sent to the Falklands, should another conflict occur. (Daniel Gibran’s The Falklands War, 1998, provides a great summary of the logistical success of deploying over 50 warships, over 50 support vessels, aircraft, troops, ammo and other supplies to the South Atlantic – p. 80-83).
Conspiracy Theories/Exaggerations
Finally, a word must be said about accusations originating in both London and Buenos Aires concerning the other’s intentions regarding the Falklands. As previously mentioned, while there has not been another war over the islands since the early 1980s, just about every year there are accusations that either the Argentine or British government are behaving in an aggressive manner. For example, in 2012 Argentina accused the UK of “militarizing” the South Atlantic. Moreover, the Argentine mediawidely reproduced the March 2015 comments by Secretary Fallon about “beefing up” of the defenses in the Falklands. In particular the Argentine media quoted and discussed a March 23, 2015, report by the British tabloid The Sun that London feared an imminent attack by Argentina, with Russian support. At the time, the ongoing theory in the British media was that, due to the close relations between Moscow and Buenos Aires (largely due to the friendship between President Vladimir Putin with then-President Kirchner), Russia would somehow support Argentina’s military in the islands.
Final Thoughts
As a reminder, Argentina did not purchase the Russian or Israeli planes while, apart from one military exercise and new radars, the British have yet to significantly beef up their security of the islands. Thus, I would argue that currently the possibility of a renewed war remains extremely low, particularly now that the new Argentine President Macri is actually trying to approach the West (meaning the U.S. and Europe) for investment in order to improve the country’s economy. The British government seems to have a similar assessment of the situation as the Strategic Defense and Security Review 2015 explains that “we judge the risk of a military attack [against the Falklands] to be low, but we will retain a deterrence posture, with sufficient military forces in the region, including Royal Navy warships, Army units and RAF Typhoon aircraft.”
The information presented in this analysis argues that in spite of the occasional alarmist report, neither side has actually carried out major military-related initiatives that could be labeled as aggressive. Argentina has not acquired significant military equipment aside from four Russian research vessels and its repaired old submarine, while the UK, apart from one military exercise, does not seem to have sent additional troops or vessels to the islands. While diplomatic tensions will remain for the immediate future, as Buenos Aires will not give up its claim to the islands and London will not negotiate their fate, hopefully we will not witness another war over the Falklands. Then again, as Gibran states “predicting state behavior is not an exact science, especially in conflict situations. The assumption of a rational behavior on the part of a country, however desirable this idea may appear, is not a given state of affairs” (The Falklands War, p. 89).
As a corollary to this analysis, in early January the oil and gas company Rockhopper announced that it had discovered oil in its Isobel Deep well in the Falklands. The potential of big oil reserves is another reason for Argentina’s claim on the islands, and the recent discovery will give new impetus for calling for negotiations. If nothing else, we can be thankful that both militaries, particularly their navies, are hardly in a position to participate in another war just yet.
W. Alejandro Sanchez Nieto is a researcher who focuses on geopolitics, military and cyber security issues in the Western Hemisphere. His research interests include inter-state tensions, narco-insurgent movements and drug cartels, arms sales, the development of Latin American military industries, UN peacekeeping operations, as well as the rising use of drones in Latin America. The views presented in this essay are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of any institutions with which the author is associated. Follow him on Twitter @W_Alex_Sanchez