"Happy Anniversary Kazakhstan: What Will the New Year Bring?"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
25 December, 2018
International Policy Digest
Originally published:
https://intpolicydigest.org/2018/12/25/happy-anniversary-kazakhstan-what-will-the-new-year-bring/
The Republic of Kazakhstan celebrated its 27th independence
anniversary on December 16th. This past year has brought a number of
significant foreign policy-related successes for the Central Asian
state. Hence, it is mandatory for those of us that work on international
affairs to monitor Astana in 2019 as it approaches three decades of
independence.
Achievements GaloreSince the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Kazakh government has
carried out an ambitious policy not only to promote internal
development and expand its international presence. Astana’s modus
operandi is to achieve short-term goals and also carry out long-term
strategies; this way of thinking has, without a doubt, helped the
country gain a prominent status as a Central Asian regional power and an
actor in its own right in global affairs. Case in point, the current
goal is for Kazakhstan to become one of the world’s 30 most developed
nations by 2050, which would help it gain membership to the Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The country is also seeking to attract more extra-regional investors
via the partial privatization of some of its more valuable state-run
enterprises. For example, in mid-November, as many as 15 percent of
shares belonging to
Kazatomprom,
the world’s biggest producer of uranium, were open for trade at the
London Stock Exchange and the Astana International Financial Centre’s
Astana Stock Exchange.
Trade with other nations reached interesting levels in recent years. For example, according to the
US Trade Representative,
“the U.S. trade balance with Kazakhstan shifted from a goods trade
surplus of $380 million in 2016 to a goods trade deficit of $239 million
in 2017.” Due to space considerations, we will not analyze this
dramatic shift, but simply highlight this discrepancy and stress that
bilateral trade relations should be closely monitored. On the other
hand, trade with South Korea appears to be gaining momentum, as
Kazakh Ambassador to the Republic of Korea,
Bakyt Dyussenbayev, has declared that “we expect that the final figures
for 12 months [for 2018] will approach $3 billion.” Similarly, the
Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), of which Kazakhstan is a member,
finalized in December a temporary agreement on the formation of a
free trade zone between the EUAU and Iran, which could help promote Kazakh trade with its Caspian Sea neighbor.
Finally, it is worth noting that Kazakhstan is the first ever Central Asian state to hold a non-permanent seat in the
UN Security Council (2017-2018)
and was the rotating president in January 2018. The country also holds
important positions in other organizations, like for example the
Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Cooperation Council of
Turkic Speaking States, where Kazakh national
Baghdad Amreyev is the current secretary general.
How will Kazakhstan’s Foreign Policy Look at 28?
As the Central Asian state begins its journey towards
turning 28 years of age, there are a few initiatives to look forward to.
One important development is that Kazakhstan has deployed 120
peacekeepers to the UN mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL), after receiving
training via the
U.S. Global Peace Operations Initiative (GPOI). The
Kazakhstan Peacekeeping Company
will operate under the command of the Indian Army’s JAT Infantry
Battalion stationed there. Kazakhstan already participates in other UN
missions but at a much lower scale, for example, it currently has
deployed four experts on a mission to the UN mission in Western Sahara
(MINURSO).
The UNIFIL deployment is a significant development as Kazakhstan has
already made a name for itself in the mediation of conflicts – for
example Kazakhstan held a round of peace talks over
Iran’s nuclear program back in 2013; moreover,
an agreement that may put an end
to the Caspian Sea dispute was signed in the Kazakh city of Aktau this
past August. Hence, Astana can now proclaim that it is not only trying
to bring peace via negotiations but also by actively participating in UN
peace missions. Should the Kazakh Peacekeeping Company perform
professionally in Lebanon, this may set the tone for future Kazakh
participation in other UN missions.
Additionally, while this is still a couple of years away, Kazakhstan will host the
WTO’s Ministerial Conference
from 8-11 June 2020. This is significant given the ongoing shifts in
global commerce, such as the trade wars between global powers; the
appearance of the
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP-11 – the successor to the TPP
sans
the U.S.); the USMCA (the new NAFTA); figuring what European trade will
look like if Brexit occurs; not to mention China’s Belt and Road
Initiative, which will continue to expand in 2019. Given all these
issues, the 2020 WTO meeting in Astana will be a forum where changing
global trade will be discussed.
Education: Always a Pillar for Development
As mentioned in this author’s 8 October commentary, “
Reforming Kazakhstan’s Education System and its Foreign Policy Implications,”
the October 5th speech by President Nursultan Nazarbayev is a milestone
in Kazakhstan’s educational sector. During his remarks, the Kazakh
leader proclaimed that the Central Asian nation’s education system will
be reformed, and “expenditures on education, science and healthcare
[will be increased] from all sources up to 10% from the GDP within 5
years.” The country has a fairly good higher education system, including
Nazarbayev University and the “Bolashak” program –which provides
scholarships for Kazakh students to study abroad and then return to work
in the country, like the Fulbright Program– however greater financial
resources are always welcome. Around
11 thousand specialists have been educated in Western universities via Bolashak, including several senior Kazakh policymakers.
Adding to these programs is the goal of making the country a
trilingual state: Kazakh, Russian and now English. During an December
11th speech at Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian, and
East European Studies, for an event titled “
Future Calling: Infrastructure Development in Central Asia”
the Kazakhstan ambassador to the US, Erzhan Kazykhanov, explained that
the Kazakh government has changed the national alphabet from Cyrillic to
Latin in order to facilitate learning computer science, and is also
fomenting the teaching of English by training Kazakh teachers in rural
areas and also bringing English-speakers to temporarily teach in Kazakh
schools as well.
Increasing the budget of the education system, supporting the
Bolashak program and furiously supporting English-education will be the
pillars for the future of Kazakhstan, whether it plans to celebrate 27,
28 or 100-years of independence.
Final Thoughts: From Concerns to Promise
Kazakhstan, like the other post-Soviet republics, was in a
complicated situation when it achieved independence back in the early
1990s when there was a general sense of pessimism towards the future.
Even more, there was an ever-present possibility that the country could
disintegrate even more à la USSR – there were precedents for this
hypothesis, as a short-lived separatist war took place in Moldova in
1992, while Nagorno-Karabakh saw full-fledged violence that same year
until 1994.
Kazakhstan has certainly bounced back from that troubling period.
There are several outstanding issues that need to be addressed. However,
this country has managed in record time to become Central Asia’s leader
and is making a name for itself in global affairs.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone
and do not necessarily reflect those of any institutions with which the
author is associated.
