Presentacion: El analista de COHA, W. Alejandro Sánchez, da una presentación en la Academia de la Policía Nacional de Colombia

"El analista de COHA, W. Alejandro Sánchez, da una presentación en la Academia de la Policía Nacional de Colombia"

Presentacion

Bogota, Colombia

Agosto 20, 2015

Comunicado de Prensa de COHA: http://www.coha.org/el-analista-de-coha-w-alejandro-sanchez-da-una-presentacion-en-la-academia-de-la-policia-nacional-de-colombia/

El jueves 20 de agosto, W. Alejandro Sánchez, analista del Consejo de Asuntos Hemisféricos, dió una conferenci, via Skype en la Escuela de Postgrados “Miguel Antonio Lleras Pizarro” de la Policía Nacional de Colombia (PNC). El título de la presentación del Sr. Sánchez fue “¿Es que los movimientos violentos latinoamericanos, hoy en día, tienen una ideología política?” La audiencia incluyó a más de 200 oficiales de la PNC.

El Coronel Luis Ernesto García Hernández, director de la escuela de postgrados de la PNC, dió un mensaje introductorio.

El Sr. Sánchez ha llevado a cabo una extensa investigación acerca de las ideologías políticas y las motivaciones de los movimientos violentos latinoamerianos, pasados y presentes. Ponemos a continuación una lista de algunos de sus artículos sobre este tema:

• Alejandro Sánchez. “Give War a Chance Revisited – The Price to Pay: The Military and Terrorism in Peru.” Defense Studies. 2011. Volume 11, Issue 3. Pages 517-540.
• Alejandro Sánchez. “Sangre Joven: Understanding the New Wave of Armed Groups in Latin America.” Security and Defense Studies Review: Interdisciplinary Journal of the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies. Volume 12, No. 1 & 2. Fall-Winter 2011. P. 135 -153.
• Alejandro Sánchez and COHA Research Associate Kimberly Bullard. “On Separatism in Latin America.” e-International Relations. May 20, 2013.
• Alejandro Sánchez. “Defining Mexico’s Zapatista Army of National Liberation.” E-International Relations. October 22, 2012.
• Alejandro Sánchez. “The End of Ideologically-Motivated Violent Movements in Latin America?” E-International Relations. September 24, 2012.

CAEI: Colombia y Peru Necesitan Drones Armados?

"Colombia y Peru Necesitan Drones Armados?"
W. Alejandro Sanchez

Opinion - Working Paper 10
Programa America del Norte
Centro Argento de Estudios Internacionales
Julio 2015
Publicado: http://www.caei.com.ar/sites/default/files/wp_-_10.pdf

Peru This Week: US: Peru’s Shining Path members are narcotics traffickers

"US: Peru's Shining Path members are narcotics traffickers"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Opinion
Peru This Week
June 19, 2015
Originally published: http://www.peruthisweek.com/blogs-us-perus-shining-path-are-narcotics-traffickers-106618

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has labeled the Peruvian insurgent movement as a “drug trafficking organization.” This decision will come as little surprise to the Peruvian government, security forces, or the Andean nation’s population in general, as Shining Path is widely known to have morphed into a narco-terrorist organization that profits from drug trafficking, specifically cocaine, in the Peruvian highlands. Hence, while the U.S. government’s decision is self-explanatory and any person can rationally ask what took Washington so long to decide this. Nevertheless, it is important, as it will further limit Shining Path’s options by curtailing its U.S.-based assets. Moreover, this could open a new era of Washington-Lima security cooperation, which the Ollanta Humala government would probably welcome.

While discussing the history of Shining Path is beyond the scope of this commentary (a more in-depth look is taken here), a brief assessment is necessary. Nowadays, the organization is a shadow of what it was at the height of its power in the late 1980s. It currently has a few hundred fighters, many of whom are child soldiers. Moreover, Shining Path’s area of operations is limited to two major regions in the Peruvian highlands, the Huallaga Valley and the Valley of the Apurimac, Ene and Mantaro Rivers (VRAEM). But while the movement may not pose a threat to Lima in the sense that it is not capable of violently overthrowing the government, it remains a national security threat.

Over the past years, Shining Path fighters have remained a consistent threat to the Peruvian security forces and the population of the highlands and Andes. This situation is best exemplified by attacks carried out by the narco-insurgents. In 2009 Shining Path guerrillas successfully shot down a security helicopter. More recently, the insurgents attacked Peruvian Army bases four times in the VRAEMduring a period of five days in May 2013. In other words, even though they are on the run, the Peruvian narco-insurgents do not shy away from engaging the country’s security forces. Another concern is the appearance of Shining Path flags in isolated towns, which has justifiably raised alarms among the local population.

This does not mean that the Peruvian security forces have not carried out successful operations against Shining Path in recent years. Case in point, the narco-insurgent movement’s leadership has been decimated, as its senior leadership is either under arrest or eliminated. In 2012, the Humala government achieved a major blow thanks to the arrest of Florindo Eleuterio Flores Hala, AKAArtemio, the last remaining Shining Path leader that remained free (the group’s founder and ideological leader, Abimael Guzman, was arrested in 1992). In recent months there have been the arrests of other insurgents, including the January 2015 detention of Teofilo Guerra Puentes, AKAJulinho, accused of killing at least fifteen police officers. Moreover, the Peruvian armed forces are upgrading their equipment in order to better patrol the VRAEM, as the country’s Russian-made helicopter fleet is getting new aircraft, while new rifles have also been purchased.

Nevertheless, the problem that Shining Path poses is not so much its threat to the Peruvian government per se, but rather its growing involvement in drug trafficking, a transnational problem. According to the United Nations and the U.S. State Department, Peru is now the world’s largest producer of cocaine, surpassing even Colombia. Nevertheless, it is important to note that Peruvian cocaine is not aimed at reaching the U.S. market but rather Europe. Case in point, in 2014, a shipment of coal was searched in the Peruvian port of Trujillo before it left for the Netherlands; hidden within the coal were over six tons of cocaine. Moreover, there is a narco-air bridge, which Peruvian and Bolivian drug traffickers use to fly cocaine from improvised airfields in the Peruvian highlands to Bolivia; from there it is smuggled to Brazil and then to Europe.

Given Peru’s evolving internal security situation and Shining Path’s morphing role into a drug trafficking entity, it is a positive development that Washington has decided to label the insurgent movement as a narco-entity. The question then becomes how, if at all, will this affect the current situation.

The one specific action carried out by the Treasury Department’s press release is that “all assets … based in the United States or that are in the control of U.S. persons are frozen, and U.S. persons are generally prohibited from engaging in transactions with them.” The individuals in question are the aforementioned Artemio, already behind bars, and two Shining Path leaders who are still free: Victor Quispe Palomino and his brother Jorge Quispe Palomino. The Treasury Department will also apply sanctions pursuant to the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act (Kingpin Act), but it is unclear how effective they will be.

It will be interesting to see whether this initiative will increase U.S.-Peruvian cooperation in the near future. The two countries, and their respective security and intelligence forces, have enjoyed decades of good relations, so increased security-cooperation would not be surprising.

As a caveat to this analysis, it is necessary to stress that, while Shining Path is now labeled by the U.S. as a drug-trafficking organization, it is not the preeminent narco-organization in Peru. Unlike Colombia or Mexico, Peruvian drug entities are not big, cartel-like entities but rather small (often family-run) enterprises. Hence, while Shining Path is close to being defeated, the real problem of drug trafficking in Peru persists.

COHA Opinion: ON JAMES BOND AND LATINA CRIMINALS

"On James Bond and Latina Criminals"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
COHA Opinion
Council on Hemispheric Affairs
March 31, 2015
Originally published: http://www.coha.org/coha-opinion-on-james-bond-and-latina-criminals/

On February 25, commentator Peter Bradshaw published a brief article in the renowned British daily, The Guardian, arguing that the next villain of the upcoming James Bond movie ‘Spectre,’ should be a woman.[i] While providing some possible candidates, this British columnist’s list does not go into greater detail of what kind of villainess could rival Bond.

Latin American women have a rich history of involvement in violent matters, including active participation in real-life insurgent groups, like the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) or Peru’s Shining Path. Additionally, women have assumed prominent roles in Mexican drug cartels and other drug-funded criminal networks in the region. Thus, it can be easily argued that the main villain in a future Bond film should be a Latina.

James Bond and the “Real World”

Bond movies are notorious for featuring outrageous plots; for example ‘Moonraker’ (1979) involves a villain that possesses a space station and tries to destroy all human life on earth. Other movies have been inspired by the Cold War, with several references to the Soviet Union and its infamous intelligence agency, the KGB (‘Octopussy,’ 1983). As for the post-Cold War era, Bond has had to face non-Soviet threats that may not be aimed at world domination per se, but nonetheless a threat to global peace and stability. For example, ‘Tomorrow Never Dies’ (1997) can be regarded as a commentary on the influence of the media in society. In that movie, Bond battles a media tycoon bent on utilizing the influence of his media empire to control the fate of governments.

More recent Bond movies have also touched on sensitive real world geopolitical realities. Most prominently, ‘Die Another Day’ (2002) faced considerably criticism for its plot centered on North Korean military attempts at invading South Korea. Additionally, ‘Quantum of Solace’ (2008) deals with Bond stopping a private energy company that is supporting a military coup in Bolivia. The movie also references the increasingly important topic of water control. In 2012, COHA published a report entitled “Latin America: Water Politics, Coups and James Bond,” that addresses these issues.

 Female characters in these films are the brigade of “Bond Girls” – beautiful and smart women who aid the British agent, usually falling in love with him. Certainly there have been some particularly memorable henchwomen to the main villain; for example, Xenia from ‘GoldenEye’ (1995). However, a main female villain, not just a deadly assistant to the main character, is lacking from the Bond cannon. Hence, The Guardian’s Bradshaw is correct to declare that it is time for a main female Bond villain. In his brief commentary on the subject, Bradshaw argues:

It’s never really been tried. There was Lotte Lenya’s minor shoe-stabber Rosa Klebb in From Russia With Love, and a sort of ambiguous lesser role for Sophie Marceau in The World Is Not Enough. But the idea of Bond being seriously tested or threatened by a powerful woman – who might have one or two good lines? Might even win some preliminary skirmishes? That would be revolutionary.

There is plenty of space in the Bond universe for a powerful female character that stands up to Bond. After all, actress Judi Dench portrayed the great “M,” Bond’s iconic boss at MI6. At the time of this writing, it has been reported that Mexican actress Stephanie Sigman has been hired to play the character of “Estrella,” the newest Bond Girl in the English spy’s next adventure, ‘Spectre.’[ii]Sigman’s addition to the movie is significant, as it is the “first Mexican Bond girl to be featured in the franchise’s 50-year history.”[iii] She will be only the third Latina to be a Bond girl, after Talisa Soto, of Puerto Rican descent who appeared in ‘License to Kill’ (1989), and Barbara Carrera, who was born in Nicaragua and who appeared in ‘Never Say Never Again’ (1983).[iv]

While it is definitely a positive development that more Latina actresses are appearing in these iconic blockbusters, one obvious concern is that Sigman will be sexualized in Bond’s newest adventure—which is very typical for Latina actors in Hollywood (though there are certainly exceptions, like Michelle Rodriguez).  Ultimately it may very well be time for a Bond villainess, and an ideal choice is to have a woman appear in the movie as a serious, no nonsense criminal, instead of one of Bond’s frivolous romances. Given the plethora of source material from the real world, a Latina villainess would be a rational and commercially viable move for the entertainment industry.

The goal here is certainly not to simply glorify the career of the female Latin American criminal, nor to imply that there is anything wrong with Sigman playing a Bond girl. Rather given the history of Bond villains, it would be a somewhat welcome development to feature a new approach, such as casting a woman as the primary villain. Moreover, even though a Bond villain will ultimately loose the battle, these characters have, if properly written, fascinating backgrounds that explain the reasons why they behave the way they do. Hence, a Latina Bond villainess could be utilized as a fictional starting point discuss the reasons why women join Latin American violent movements and how their behavior morphs, if at all, as part of them.

Latinas as Insurgents

In violent Latin American movements, women have been forced into sexual slavery, utilized as concubines, and used for support operations. Nevertheless, there are several instances of Latin American women rising to leadership roles in violent entities, in addition to proving themselves to be valuable fighters in the field.

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which has waged a war against the Colombian military since 1964, currently has around 8,000 fighters, of which a significant portion are women. The two sides have been in negotiations since 2012, and it is unclear if a final deal will be reached this year. The FARC has several women in roles of leadership, including Laura Villa, a guerrilla commander who has been part of the ongoing peace negotiations between the FARC high command and the Colombian government in Havana.[v] Another renowned female FARC fighter is Tanja Nijmeijer, a Dutch citizen who first went to Colombia to teach English, and later joined the rebels.[vi]

The FARC has taken particular care to make sure that the world is aware of its female influence. Case in point, the FARC has a webpage, MujerFariana.org, which focuses on the insurgent movement’s female fighters.[vii] The site has various articles about both current female FARC members, as well as historical Latin American women rebels. For example, a February post discusses the life and role of Micaela Bastidas, the wife of a Peruvian rebel that rose up against the Spanish empire in the 18th century.[viii]

The FARC website also has interviews with female fighters, as a kind of “rebel podcast,” as well as YouTube videos. One FARC-produced video currently available on YouTube (“La Dignidad tras las rejas,” which was uploaded on January 22, 2015 to the FARC’s account, “Lucero Fariana”) is meant to display solidarity with the FARC currently imprisoned female fighters.[ix] The short video begins with a shot of a woman with her eyes covered, handcuffed to a chair. The following scenes are a number of real-life female FARC fighters broadcasting messages in support of their imprisoned comrades. The film then switches to an amalgamation of clips of female rebels carrying out training exercises, such as climbing walls, and apparently in real action, as they are seen shooting their rifles.

Likewise, the Peruvian Maoist insurgent movement Shining Path has had several female fighters among its ranks. For example, Elena Ipanaguirre is the wife of Abimael Guzman, founder and leader of the insurgent movement. The two of them currently inhabit adjoining cells in a special prison in Peru while they serve life sentences.[x]Ipanaguirre, AKA “Comrade Miriam,” is known in the Andean nation for her fierce loyalty both to her husband and to the insurgent movement’s ideals. Moreover, a current Shining Path fighter that operates in the Valley of the Apurimac, Mantaro and Ene Rivers (VRAEM, as the region is commonly known) is Tarcela Loya Vilchez, AKA “Comrade Olga.” According to the Peruvian security forces, “Olga” is in her late 40s, of around 150cm of height, with a strong character, knowledge of weapons, and a leader of the insurgent movement’s Central Committee.[xi]

Given the aforementioned examples, it would not be difficult for Hollywood script writers to draft up a villainess with ties to Latin American insurgent movements and known for her fierceness in battle. After all, real life instances in the region have proven that female insurgents can have high-ranking roles in their violent organizations and can be just as deadly as their male counterparts.

Latinas in Drug Cartels

When we discuss the role of women in drug cartels, it is easy to think of them merely playing the role of concubines to narco-leaders, or as drug mules. This role is often highlighted in movies, such as ‘Maria Full of Grace’ (2004), which features a young woman who swallows wrapped pellets of drugs and then flies from Colombia to New York. Nonetheless, Latin women often enjoy major roles in drug trafficking organizations.

Perhaps the most prominent female narco is Sandra Avila Beltran, known as “The Queen of the Pacific.” She is a Mexican citizen with ties to both Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, as well as the Norte del Valle Cartel, a Colombian drug cartel. She was arrested in Mexico in 2007 and extradited to the U.S. in 2012. After serving prison time in Florida, she was sent back to Mexico where she remained imprisoned until her release in February 2015.[xii]

Another renowned narco is Claudia Ochoa Felix, also thought to work for the Sinaloa Cartel, but as the leader of a hitsquad. In 2014, there was a global media frenzy over Ochoa Felix, as numerous media outlets republished photos of her from her social media accounts (i.e. Twitter and Instagram); several of the pictures show her holding weapons and in at least one photo she has a couple of men wearing ski masks at her side holding weapons.[xiii] These photographs have since been deleted while Ochoa Felix claims that she is not a narco, but rather a private citizen and mother of three. Nevertheless, the theory remains that she works for the Sinaloa Cartel and may have been involved with two of its leaders, the now imprisoned Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, and the also-imprisoned Jose Rodrigo “El Chino Anthrax” Arechiga Gamboa, leader of cartel hit squad Los Antrax.

Finally, there are constant reports by the Mexican media of women arrested because of their involvement with the cartels: not as drug mules, but assassins. For example, in April 2014, two women were arrested in Chihuahua for working as hit women. One of them, an active-duty female police officer, was arrested along with three other gunmen after they assassinated four individuals in Ciudad Juarez.[xiv]

In other words, Latin American criminal women have shown themselves to be deadly narco leaders and hitwomen. Surely one of them can inspire a script.

Conclusions

Shooting for ‘Spectre’ is well underway, as recent fan videos have appeared about a car chase sequence in Rome.[xv] Bond movies take the spy to various locations across the worlds, and Latin America will once again play a role in this Bond adventure.[xvi]At the time of this writing, the ‘Spectre’ production team, including Daniel Craig (who plays the latest incarnation of the English spy) are filming in Mexico City. At least a few of the movie’s scenes will apparently include Bond running through Mexico’s capital during a Day of the Dead carnival.[xvii] While Latin America will not play a prominent role in ‘Spectre,’ like it did in ‘Quantum of Solace,’ it is positive that the region continues to be present in the spy’s adventures.(Bond has travelled to Latin America and the Caribbean before to fight villains, like Jamaica in ‘Dr. No,’ 1962, and Cuba in ‘Die Another Day,’ among others).

It is a positive development that a Latin actress, Stephanie Sigman, will have a role in the upcoming blockbuster, but she will be a Bond girl, rather than a villain. Unless there is a major plot twist in the script,this is a shortcoming on behalf of the film’s script-writers. ‘Quantum of Solace,’ which revolves around water politics and military coups in Bolivia, exemplifies that there is plenty of source material to inspire another Latin American-themed Bond adventure. Moreover, the history of real-life Latin American violent movements, such as insurgent groups like Shining Path or the FARC to Mexican drug cartels, highlights how Latin women have enjoyed prominent roles within these entities. Even more, a fictional villainess allows us to understand some of the real-life reasons why Latinas decide to join the criminal life.

The plot of ‘Spectre’ remains under wraps, though it will reportedly revolve around Bond fighting a “sinister organization.”[xviii]  Moreover, the German-Austrian actor Christoph Waltz will play Bond’s nemesis.[xix]While Waltz will probably make a fine villain, it feels like this was an opportunity-lost for the Bond franchise. Since they are filming in Mexico and have a Mexican actress in the cast, it would have been groundbreaking and “revolutionary,” as The Guardian’s Bradshaw put it, to have a villainess. Even more, given the plethora of source material from the role of real-life women in Latin American violent movements, a Latina Bond villainess one would have been the natural choice for such a role.

By W. Alejandro Sanchez, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

Please accept this article as a free contribution from COHA, but if re-posting, please afford authorial and institutional attribution. Exclusive rights can be negotiated. For additional news and analysis on Latin America, please go to: LatinNews.com and Rights Action.

[i] Peter Bradshaw. “The James Bond baddie should be a woman.”  The Guardian. “James Bond Notebook.” February 25, 2015.http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/25/next-james-bond-baddie-woman?CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

[ii] Justin Krol. “Stephanie Sigman joins James Bond film ‘Spectre.’” Variety. March 10, 2015.  http://variety.com/2015/film/news/james-bond-spectre-stephanie-sigman-casting-1201449990/

[iii] Justin Krol. “Stephanie Sigman joins James Bond film ‘Spectre.’” Variety. March 10, 2015. http://variety.com/2015/film/news/james-bond-spectre-stephanie-sigman-casting-1201449990/

[iv]PalomaCorredor. “Penelope Cruz to be the third Latina ‘Bond Girl’… and the oldest.”VOXXI. June 6, 2013. http://voxxi.com/2013/06/06/penelope-cruz-latina-bond-girl-oldest/

[v]Brittany Peterson. “Entrevista con Lider guerrillera de las FARC. Sputnik News. February 13, 2014.http://mundo.sputniknews.com/spanish_ruvr_ru/2014_02_13/Entrevista-con-lider-guerrillera-de-las-FARC-2210/

[vi]Sarah Rainsford. “Tanja Nijmeijer: Dutch Farc rebel at peace talks.” BBC. January 31, 2013.http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-21237362

[vii]Mujfer Fariana. Official Webpage. http://mujerfariana.org/

[viii]“Micaela Bastidas Puyucahua.” MujerFariana.org. February 18, 2015.http://mujerfariana.org/index.php/heroinas/267-micaela-bastidas-puyucahua

[ix]“La Dignidad Tras Las Rejas.” Video. YouTube. User: Lucero Fariana. Uploaded January 22, 2015.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMpy2zQkWHg

[x]“Esposa de Terrorista Abimael Guzman exige visitas conyugales.” El Comercio  (Peru). October 7, 2014.http://elcomercio.pe/politica/justicia/esposa-terrorista-abimael-guzman-exige-visitas-conyugales-noticia-1762426

[xi]“La violenta ‘camarada Olga’ asumiria liderazgo militar de los senderistas del Vraem.”La Republica. Politica. August 28, 2013.http://www.larepublica.pe/28-08-2013/la-violenta-camarada-olga-asumiria-liderazgo-militar-de-los-senderistas-del-vraem

[xii]“Sandra AvilaBeltran, la Reina del Pacifico, esta libre.” UnivisionNoticias. February 7, 2015.http://noticias.univision.com/article/2238473/2015-02-07/mexico/noticias/ordenan-liberar-a-sandra-avila-beltran-la-reina-del-pacifico

[xiii]“La sexy jefa del narco de Mexico se muestra también en videos.” Infobae.com. Sociedad. June 2, 2014.http://www.infobae.com/2014/06/02/1569592-la-sexy-jefa-narco-mexico-se-muestra-tambien-videos

[xiv]Carlos Coria Rivas. “Arrestan a dos mujeres sicarias en Chihuahua, una de ellas policía.” Imagen.com.mx. April 28, 2014.http://www.imagen.com.mx/arrestan-dos-mujeres-sicarias-chihuahua

[xv]Joey Paur. “New car chase videos from the set of Spectre.” GeekTyrant. March 22, 2015.  http://geektyrant.com/news/new-car-chase-videos-from-the-set-of-spectre

[xvi]“Mexico amanece en pleno Dia de los Muertos por rodaje de ‘James Bond.’” Diario Las Americas. March 19, 2015.http://www.diariolasamericas.com/4868_cine/3010520_mexico-amanece-pleno-muertos-rodaje-james-bond.html

[xvii]ShyamDodge. “Panic in Mexico! Daniel Craig frantically runs through Day of the Dead carnival while filming new Bond movie Spectre.” Daily Mail. March 25, 2015.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3011929/Panic-Mexico-Daniel-Craig-frantically-runs-Day-Dead-carnival-filming-new-Bond-movie-Spectre.html

[xviii] Joey Paur. “New car chase videos from the set of Spectre.” GeekTyrant. March 22, 2015.http://geektyrant.com/news/new-car-chase-videos-from-the-set-of-spectre

[xix]Mikey Smith. “Who is the new Bond villain? Everything we know about 007’s Spectre nemesis.” Mirror.co.uk. December 4, 2014. http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/who-new-bond-villain-everything-4747137

COHA: WORST CASE SCENARIO: THE CRIMINAL USE OF DRONES

"Worst Case Scenario: The Criminal Use of Drones"
W. Alejandro Sanchez & Cameron McKibben
Commentary - Council on Hemispheric Affairs
February 2, 2015
Originally published: http://www.coha.org/worst-case-scenario-the-criminal-use-of-drones/

By: Alejandro Sanchez, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, and Cameron McKibben, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs.

If 2014 was the year of the drone in Latin America, 2015 is looking to be very much the same.[i] However, the proliferation of drone usage may become a concern throughout the Western Hemisphere, particularly in Mexico and the United States, as drones have found a new investor south of the U.S. border: drug traffickers. But what is the potential for drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) to acquire drones capable of effectively smuggling and eluding authorities? As one of the most popular Christmas gifts this past year, civilian drones are readily available to the public. [ii]

The Rise of the Terror Drone?

In the U.S., the worst possible scenario of how drones can be utilized for violent outcomes in sensitive locations took a new turn on January 26, when a small drone crashed on the lawn of the White House. While this incident (involving an inebriated government employee) seems to have just been an accident, it begins to illuminate just how easily drones can fly into restricted areas. The event also provokes worries over how destructive these machines can be if they were to be used as “terror drones,” and loaded with some sort of explosive. Additionally, it is important to remember that this is not the first time that drones have entered no-fly zones. Over the past year, unauthorized drones have flown close to other sensitive targets, like nuclear power plants in France and Belgium. So far, no one has been detained for these incidents, and these could have been staged by some harmless environmental group. Nevertheless, given the recent attacks against the Charlie Hebdo satirical magazine in France and the terrorist attacks in the UK and Spain over the past decade, one major concern is that terror drones could be use by an extremist Islamic militant organization for some kind of terrorist operation.

The idea that terrorist movements will begin to utilize drones is no longer a hypothetical scenario, but a grim reality. For example, the global media has reported that ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) has procured a drone and is using it to conduct reconnaissance and aid in launching ground attacks on the Syrian military.[iii] Likewise, it is believed that groups like Hamas and Hezbollah also possess drones.

A word of caution is necessary. The drones used by the aforementioned militant movements are generally believed to be very crude models, nothing more than a small plane or helicopter with a video camera and GPS attached. Such aircraft cannot be compared to the capabilities of US or Israeli drones like the NightEagle or ScanEagle, much less armed drones like the Predators. Nevertheless, even the most rudimentary drone can serve as an effective “eye in the sky” that would provide invaluable intelligence information to a terrorist movement. Moreover, in the case of Israel, one genuine fear is that Hezbollah’s drones can be adapted as “suicide drones” – namely that they can be loaded with explosives so they would cause maximum damage if they collide against an Israeli military (or civilian) facility.[iv]

Even criminals that do not necessarily belong to some major terrorist or criminal network can use drones for smuggling. This has already been the case in the U.S. and Australia.[v] For example, individuals have already used small drones to try to smuggle marijuana, cell phones, and other contraband into prisons in South Carolina and Georgia. These attempts were discovered because the drones failed to cross over the fence line and crashed (one likely reason being that they were carrying too much weight for the machine to fly properly), but there could certainly be other instances when drones were able to fly over a prison fence, were unloaded by prisoners, and then managed to fly back unnoticed.

As UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) are now coming into the hands of criminals and terrorist movements across the world, either for transportation of contraband or surveillance purposes, it should come as little surprise that drones are now beginning to be utilized by Latin American DTOs. At this point we must ask ourselves, what are the implications for the use of drones by these Latin American illicit groups?

Drones in Latin America

Drug smuggling across the U.S.-Mexican border via drones has been recorded since 2010. This raises the question of what the potential for their expanded use by DTOs to smuggle their cargoes across borders may be. Not only does this affect Mexico and the U.S., but the use of drones should also be a concern for areas in which Mexican DTOs operate, notably in Central America.

So far, there have been limited reports regarding drones being utilized for criminal or terrorist activities in Latin America, but such use seems like a realistic development in the near future. Case in point, there is now the serious concern over drone usage by Mexican DTOs. A crashed UAV, a type of helicopter, was recovered in Tijuana, Mexico, carrying about six pounds (over three kilograms) of methamphetamine.[vi] It is likely that drones will continue to be utilized for moving small quantities of drugs (or other contraband) within Mexican territory or over the U.S. border. Nevertheless, given the fact that Mexican cartels have significant wealth stemming from an almost endless supply of drugs (ranging from cocaine to meth to marijuana), it is not shocking to assume that these DTOs may continue to resort to drones in the future as cheap vehicle to thwart border security measures.

As for drones being used to smuggle contraband into prisons, this is a particularly worrisome development given that prison conditions in countries like Mexico, Peru, Bolivia and throughout Central America are notorious for internal violence and almost routine escape attempts.

The use of drones extends beyond mere transportation of drugs over the border. There are also the aforementioned reports of using drones to smuggle materials into prisons. This can be especially disconcerting in Mexico, where (attempted) prison breakouts are fairly common. The judicial systems in these countries are already weak regarding convictions and penal overpopulation. Moreover, throughout Latin American prisons, it is often the inmates that actually control the prisons, while correction guards mainly focus on controlling the walls to keep the inmates from escaping.[vii]

While regional penal security forces have made progress in cracking down on smuggling, the examples of Georgia and South Carolina raise concerns that criminals might utilize drones to penetrate Latin American prisons. Such a scenario could end in the smuggling of more drugs, cell phones, and more dangerous cargoes like weapons to the inmate population, prompting further violence, either between prisoners or to facilitate mass escape attempts.

Finally, it is necessary to explore whether Latin American DTOs or terrorist movements could utilize terror drones for further types of aerial attacks (as Israel fears vis-à-vis Hezbollah) in countries besides Mexico. Due to space limitations, we will focus on the current major insurgent movements and drug cartels that already operate in the region.

1. Shining Path (Peru). The group has around 300 members, which are split into two factions and operate out of the Peruvian highlands. The group has suffered the loss of all of its senior leadership thanks to recent operations by the Peruvian military.[viii] At this point, it is unlikely that Shining Path has the capability or resources to acquire or deploy terror drones.
2. Paraguayan People’s Army (Ejército del Pueblo Paraguayo- Paraguay). This group is rumored to have around 50 members, with its modus operandi revolving around kidnappings, attacking isolated police posts and low-scale bombings. The group’s most recent attack on January 28 involved the kidnapping and murder of two cattle ranchers in the Concepcion department.[ix] Like Shining Path, it is unlikely that the group has the capability or resources to obtain drones.
3. FARC and ELN (Colombia). Both groups are still strong, militarily speaking. The FARC, for example, is thought to have around 8,000 troops, and the group certainly profits enough from drug trafficking, extortion and racketeering to obtain some crude drone models for surveillance operations. With that said, both the FARC and ELN are currently involved in peace negotiations with the Colombian government. In spite of the possibility that negotiations between the groups, as well as the FARC’s unilateral ceasefire, will be successful, it is realistic to believe that these groups could reorganize themselves should negotiations fail. Drones could be utilized the event that this worst-case scenario occurs.[x]

The Future: The Flight of the Terror Drone

Based upon the tactical practicality of drones to execute terrorist and illicit operations, the proliferation of UAV use by such organizations should be regarded as a realistic possibility in the near future. Additionally, given the illicit wealth and political capital (through corruption) that these groups can mobilize, a significant risk is manifested in their ability to surpass the technology of early rudimentary designs and models. This is particularly true in regards to the Latin American drug trade, a profit-maximizing environment, in which the DTOs have a history of gaining exorbitant wealth, allowing them to penetrate all levels of government (including security agencies) with relative ease.

The Mexican DTOs have already invested in and utilized drones in order to smuggle drugs, and these UAVs could potentially be utilized to conduct surveillance. It is likely that the FARC could develop similar capabilities. These entities certainly have the funds to acquire them, as exemplified by the construction of miniature narco-submarines, costing around $5 million USD, which have been utilized to transport hundreds of kilograms of drugs up the Caribbean coast.[xi] If nothing else, the existence of narco-subs exemplifies the interest of drug cartels in new technologies to avoid detection while smuggling drugs.

On the potential for terror drones, it is certainly alarming and should not be dismissed. Radical movements like Shining Path and the FARC have a history of utilizing explosive devices to carry out terror attacks. For example, Shining Path’s use of “car bombs” in the 1980s and early 1990s during Peru’s civil war (like the car bomb that exploded in Tarata Street in downtown Lima in 1992, killing 25 and injuring over 200).[xii] Thus, there is certainly no lack of precedent of these groups utilizing technology to carry out attacks. Thus, it is not unthinkable that these, or new groups, could attempt to construct a “terror drone.” Nevertheless, as previously mentioned, Shining Path is currently a defunct (or at least dying) entity, so it is unlikely that the Peruvian insurgents have the expertise to fabricate a “terror drone.”

At the time of this writing, there have been no reports of UAVs being utilized to commit violence. Still, this analysis would argue that if any Latin American criminal organization could attempt to build a terror drone in the near future, it would be the Mexican DTOs or the FARC. Mexican DTOs operate in a deteriorating security environment in which violence has become commonplace, and for the FARC, in the event of failed peace negotiations, terror drones could be useful to a revival of their goals.

Revolutionary and organized crime groups are commonplace throughout Latin American countries, and it would be unreasonable not to consider the potential for new groups to emerge. However, groups that are linked to state sponsorship or can penetrate state-based development programs have the highest potential for technology to transfer to them. The use of UAVs by illicit and non-state actors is already occurring, and will likely expand in the near future – to aid in drug smuggling, intelligence gathering, or committing violence. Terror drones and UAVs used for more conventional illegal purposes may prove to be a new security threat in the future, and sooner rather than later, they may fly over Latin American airspace.

By: Alejandro Sanchez, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, and Cameron McKibben, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs.

Please accept this article as a free contribution from COHA, but if re-posting, please afford authorial and institutional attribution. Exclusive rights can be negotiated. For additional news or analysis on Latin America, please go to: Latin News.

Featured image by: David Rodriguez Martin. “Viva la Habana.” Taken on July 29, 2013. Taken from: https://www.flickr.com/photos/trotaparamos/13546582985/in/photolist-jbVCyB-mD4MaB-pKP3EZ-ei1iWe-pJFsJk-qDCM2T-qMfJ5C-pMh1hs-nfqf41-oeAee1-qrrKnt-6k1FcA-6Rr8H2-kLbSN1-hYQJ1r-7MBfCE-fukpy-o3mrPi-n3TU3P-nfLraF-aCnpCz-nfN4ag-8G9QeN-mQrPM-jiNUfr-nLb438-nYQEZ2-e2jFZR-bVL5RJ-d37DaL-8rz1tY-7Pzmf2-o5qWJe-hFUCLJ-p3wtzD-fV4AFa-9p9v9o-8fm22t-fV4AzZ-dnWDiX-9hZowj-78giQL-chvytS-oRRB4a-fF81HV-9p4YkB-fu3EL7-8Kge5V-8fm1FF-dEA6uf 

References:

[i] W. Alejandro Sanchez, “Lift Off: Drone Usage in Latin America Takes Flight,” Council on Hemispheric Affairs, accessed January 23, 2015, http://www.coha.org/lift-off-drone-usage-in-latin-america-takes-flight/.

[ii] Alex Renton, “Christmas gift: attack of the drones,” The Guardian, accessed January 30, 2014, http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/nov/23/toy-drones-christmas-present-hobby.

[iii] Geoff Earle and Bruce Golding, “ISIS using surveillance drones to target Syrian military,” New York Post, accessed January 26,2015, http://nypost.com/2014/08/26/isis-using-surveillance-drones-to-target-syrian-military/.

[iv] Peter Bergen & Emily Schneider, “ Now ISIS has Drones?” CNN.com, Opinion, accessed January 30, 2015,  http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/24/opinion/bergen-schneider-drones-isis/.

[v] “Australia: Drone ‘used to carry drugs near prison,’” BBC News, accessed January 23, 2014, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26511740; Harriet McLeod, “Crashed drone carried contraband aimed at South Carolina prison,” Reuters, accessed January 26, 2015,http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/31/us-usa-southcarolina-drones-idUSKBN0G002020140731.

[vi] “Drone carrying drugs crashes near US-Mexico border,” BBC News, accessed January 23, 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-30931367.

[vii] “Investigan cárcel ‘controlada por presos’ en Brasil,: BBC Mundo, accessed January 30, 2015, http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/america_latina/2010/08/100804_brasil_carcel_controlada_por_presos_lav.shtml – Also see: “Mas de la mitad de las cárceles en Mexico es controlada por los presos,”RT Actualidad, accessed January 30, 2015 http://actualidad.rt.com/sociedad/view/111860-carceles-mexico-controlada-presos – also see Dario Mizrahi, “Las cárceles en America Latina, autenticas escuelas del delito,”Infobae.com, accessed January 30, 2015 http://www.infobae.com/2013/11/17/1524235-las-carceles-america-latina-autenticas-escuelas-del-delito.

[viii] W. Alejandro Sanchez, “Peru: Shining Parth’s Last Major leader, Artemio, has been Captured,” Council on Hemispheric Affairs, Report, accessed January 30, 2015http://www.coha.org/peru-shining-path%E2%80%99s-last-major-leader-artemio-has-been-captured/.

[ix] “EPP strikes again in Paraguay with kidnapping and murder,” Latin News, Main Briefing.

[x] “FARC demands Colombia stop ceasefire ‘abuse,’” AFP, accessed January 30, 2015, http://news.yahoo.com/farc-demands-colombia-stop-ceasefire-abuse-224933015.html.

[xi] Dane Schiller, “Experts reveal secrets of narco sub,” Houston Chronicle, accessed January 30, 2015, http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/Experts-reveal-secrets-from-captured-narco-sub-1691587.php.

[xii] Rachel Chase, “Shining Path leader Abimael Guzman on trial for 1992 Tarata bombing,” Peru This Week, accessed January 30, 2015, http://www.peruthisweek.com/news-shining-path-leader-abimael-guzman-on-trial-for-1992-tarata-bombing-102033.