"Venezuela: How Far Will Nicolás Maduro Go to Stay in Power?"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Providence Magazine
22 February 2019
Originally published: https://providencemag.com/2019/02/venezuela-how-far-will-nicolas-maduro-go-to-stay-in-power/
The date February 23 will be remembered as the showdown between Venezuelan interim President Juan Guaidó against de facto President Nicolás Maduro, as the latter seeks to remain in power at all costs.
President Guaidó has announced that on that day,
humanitarian aid will enter the country and be distributed among
citizens in need; meanwhile, Maduro has labeled this aid as a “show” and
“breadcrumbs,”
since accepting it would hurt his grip on power. Controlling access to
food and other basic necessities has become the Maduro regime’s ultimate
tactic to retain control of the South American nation.
Guaidó’s Pledge
The political crisis in Venezuela is overshadowed by its socioeconomic crisis. Between three and four million Venezuelans have fled the country already, while those who remain have had to adapt to a shortage of food, medicine, and other basic necessities—hospitals are also suffering a lack of staff, equipment, and medical supplies. Interim President Guaidó has sought to remedy this turning to the international community for assistance. In a January 24 letter
to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the interim head of state asked
the US to send “food, medicine, and medical supplies, and perhaps…a
hospital ship [presumably the USS Comfort]” to Venezuela.
At the time of this writing, various US Air Force C-17 aircraft have transported humanitarian aid from Homestead Air Reserve Base, Florida, to Cúcuta, Colombia. According to a statement by USAID,
the first wave of deliveries has food kits that include oil, flour,
lentils, and rice; hygiene kits; nutritional supplements, known as Ready-to–Use Supplementary Food; energy cookies and medicine.
Cúcuta is right next to the border with Venezuela, where Maduro infamously ordered to block with trucks and containers
an international bridge (Puente Internacional Tienditas) that crosses
the Tachira River to prevent any type of crossing. It appears that on
February 23, trucks carrying the humanitarian aid will attempt to cross
this bridge.
How Far Will Maduro Go to Stay in Power
The Maduro regime has realized that they need to do something
to help the Venezuelan people, given how the government has driven the
economy to the ground. Hence, the Venezuelan government has reportedly
acquired medicine from its few remaining allies, like Cuba, China, and Russia.
However, for the population to acquire these goods the price to pay,
apart from money, is loyalty. Namely, the Venezuelan government has
issued a special ID, known as “homeland card” (Carnet de la Patria in Spanish). The card is used as a type of population control, as it is required to vote and access “food, hygiene items, and subsidized school scholarships,” as well as gasoline.
Even more, the Maduro regime is also resorting to scare tactics so
that the population looks at Guaidó and his international supporters
with fear, if not hate. Recently, (de facto) Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez
declared via state TV that the food the US is trying to deliver to
Venezuelans is contaminated, poisoned, and even cancerous. She went on
to declare that the food could be regarded as “biological weapons.”
Ridiculous statements like these demonstrate that the Maduro regime has
thrown logic out the window and is focused on staying in power via fear
and control.
What could happen on February 23?
As of this writing, Maduro has declared that he will not allow the
border to be opened so that trucks with humanitarian aid can enter on
February 23. After all, accepting this humanitarian aid would undermine
his regime’s control of the country, as the assistance is coming from Guaidó
and the US. Never mind that this assistance would help Venezuelans in
dire need. Thus, it comes as no surprise that during a recent visit to
Washington, DC, President Iván Duque Márquez of Colombia declared that “blockading international humanitarian aid, for me, is a crime against humanity.”
The key issue will be the behavior of two actors, the Venezuelan
armed forces, and the general population. While many senior military
leaders and troops continue to follow Maduro’s orders, there have been a plethora of defections as well as arrests of many military officers, which the regime accuses of being coup plotters.
The great unknown is whether the border guards will defy Maduro, remove
the blockade, and allow the trucks with humanitarian aid to enter, or
follow Maduro’s ludicrous order.
As for the population, their anger against the Maduro regime is as
palpable as ever. For example, on February 17 Pableysa Ostos, a
journalist for Venezuelan daily El Nacional, uploaded a short video of
a Venezuelan citizen arguing with a self-described “Chavista” who was
in charge of delivering gas cylinders to a neighborhood. The individual
proclaims, “Maduro is over, the hunger is over.”
Final Thoughts
In January, Nicolás Maduro lost the legal right to be called
President of Venezuela, as his presidential term came to an end. The
actions he is carrying out nowadays—the repression, his clinging to
power, the socioeconomic mess that he prolongs by staying in the Palacio
de Miraflores, and the food and health crisis that continues to affect
the Venezuelan population—makes Nicolas Maduro morally unfit to be the president of Venezuela.
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez is an analyst who focuses on geopolitical, military, and cybersecurity issues.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect those of any institutions with which the author is associated.
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