Quoted in: Matisak's Blog (A Stamp on the World): Venezuela: What’s next for Nicolas Maduro?

"Venezuela: What's Next for President Maduro?"
 By Andrej Matisak
Matisak's Blog (A Stamp on the World)
10 January 2019
Originally published: https://matisak.wordpress.com/2019/01/10/venezuela-whats-next-for-nicolas-maduro/



What do you expect from another presidential term of President Nicolas Maduro? We could probably see a further isolation of Venezuela under Maduro as we just witnessed with the Lima Declaration, so how safe is Maduro’s position? Read few comments.

W. Alejandro Sanchez, International Security Analyst

President Maduro has no intention of leaving power. The same can be said of his allies in the Venezuelan government and armed forces. Any analysis about Venezuela’s future must start with those two undeniable facts.
Beginning on 10 January, President Maduro will be considered an illegitimate president by most of the international community. For example, the government of Peru has stated that it will not allow President Maduro, family members and members of his cabinet, to enter Peruvian territory beginning on that date. It would not surprise me if other regional states follow this model. There is also the probability that Latin American nations will recall their ambassadors or remove other diplomatic personnel.

But here is the problem, these are governments which are already critical of the Venezuelan government, so we are not talking about “additional” isolation other than what we are already witnessing. Venezuela’s regional allies are Bolivia, Cuba and Nicaragua, along with a few Caribbean states (mostly because they still benefit from Venezuela oil, but even this will not last), along with extra-regional states like China, Iran, Russia and Turkey. If any of these countries withdrew their support (diplomatically or, even more important, when it comes to trade and economic aid), this would truly isolate Venezuela.

As for how “Safe” is President Maduro, the recent defection of Venezuela Supreme Court judge Christian Zerpa in addition to ongoing arrests of members of the armed forces highlight the constant discontent against Maduro and his close allies.

Alas, even if President Maduro were to resign tomorrow, the problem is not just him but the leadership of the armed forces, the controversial Constituent Assembly, cabinet of ministers, among others. What will they do if President Maduro leaves? It is ridiculous to believe that they will all resign and go home (or seek asylum someplace), and allow for a peaceful and democratic transfer of power. So the issue is not just how “safe” is President Maduro himself but the regime as a whole. And so far, in spite everything that has happened in the past few years, they remain firmly in control of the country.