VOXXI: The EU-CELAC Summit and the future of hemispheric integration

The EU-CELAC Summit and the Future of Hemispheric Integration
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
January 30, 2013
Originally published: http://www.voxxi.com/eu-celac-summit-hemispheric-integration/

Around 40 heads of state and 60 diplomatic delegations from countries of the European Union (EU), and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), met during the weekend of January 26 in Santiago, Chile. The EU-CELAC summit focused on increasing trade ties between the two blocs while promoting sustainable development and protecting the environment.

Whereas the future of European economies remains uncertain due to the enormous amount of ongoing problems with several of its member countries, the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean continue to boom. However, not everything is perfect among CELAC members and the real underlying question is not the future of EU-CELAC relations but whether CELAC will be able to maintain unity between the new organization’s over 30 members during the coming years.

Europe needed a ‘win’

The EU-CELAC summit took place amidst that fog of the current global financial storm that has hit the EU particularly hard. EU countries like Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal have come very close to economic collapse on several occasion over the past few years, and their continued near insolvency and austere fiscal reforms have sparked several major protests, particularly in Greece.

In addition, Prime Minister David Cameron has announced his intent to hold a referendum regarding British membership in the EU by 2018 at the latest. What more, Scotland will hold a referendum regarding a possible Scottish independence from the UK in 2014. These challenges mean that the EU and its members will likely face many dramatic challenges in the near future.

Conversely, Latin America and the Caribbean have been enjoying an economic boom over the last decade, where countries like Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru have become economic powerhouses. As a result of economic growth, vast natural resources and a growing productive workforce, CELAC has increasingly attracted trade and investments from the international community. For example, the U.S. is looking to create an ambitious intercontinental free trade area, the Trans Pacific Partnership, which would include Australia, Singapore as well as Latin American nations like Mexico, Chile and Peru. In addition,Latin American trade with China has continued to grow. Finally, Latin America has also approached Middle Eastern markets, as exemplified by the Third summit between the Arab World and South America held in Peru. In light of recent positive regional economic developments in the Western Hemisphere, it was no surprise that Europe strove to portray itself as an attractive trade partner in Santiago.

EU-CELAC Summit: What keeps it together?

The ideological basis for CELAC is a desire for both greater regional integration and further independence from Washington’s hegemony in the region. However, it is debatable whether the new organization will remain united in the coming years due to the differences between its members in terms of national interests and objectives. Moreover, it is noteworthy to mention that Cuba has become the head role of CELAC’s rotating leadership. This sends a clear message to Washington that the rest of the Americas want Havana to be more integrated into the inter-American system.

It will be interesting to see how the White House will behave towards the region during Obama’s second presidential term. The new administration has already received multilateral diplomatic pressure during the 2012 Summit of the Americas in Colombia from several states who wanted Cuba to attend, contrary to the wishes of Washington. The next summit is scheduled to be held in Panama in 2015. It is expected that similar pressure on Washington to allow for Havana’s presence in such regional forums will only increase in the coming years.

Nevertheless, while Cuba is an issue that is commonly raised whenever there are talks about hemispheric integration, it is not a critical issue for nations that may have other, more immediate diplomatic concerns and which may prove to be more divisive among CELAC states. Some of the more consequential issues which have affected the region in recent years include: The border dispute between Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as Colombia’s discomfort stemming from a ruling by the International Court of Justice over a maritime border dispute with Nicaragua. In addition, Bolivia continues to demand a territorial corridor linking it to the sea that would transverse Chile; Bolivian President Evo Morales has declared that he wants his country to have sea access by 2025.

Even the EU-CELAC summit sparked controversy as Paraguay did not attend the high level meeting. (The Chilean government said Asuncion chose not to attend while the Paraguayans said they were not invited). Paraguay has been isolated from regional groups like UNASUR and MERCOSUR since former President Fernando Lugo was controversially removed from office last June 2012. Besides the Paraguay issue, the EU-CELAC summit also demonstrated the divide among some CELAC nations regarding commerce, as countries like Peru, Mexico and Chile were aiming to receive more investments from Europe. Meanwhile, ALBA nations like Venezuela protested the addition of paragraphs in the summit’s final declaration that called for the “legal certainty” of European investments. In other words, CELAC’s most foreboding challenge in the coming years will be to maintain unity among its members.

The upcoming March referendum on the Falklands/Malvinas islands will be a test to see if CELAC members can remain as a cohesive unit around an issue that isn’t based in anti-U.S. sentiments. It will be critical for Argentina to gain the support of CELAC in its protest of the referendum, as Buenos Aires contests the control of the islands with London.

The EU-CELAC summit culminated with the predictable resolutions and agreements to improve cooperation between both regions, particularly regarding trade. CELAC has arguably emerged as the next great economic powerhouse, but the key to its diplomatic weight will be the extent to which the group can remain as a single bloc in its dealings with the rest of the world. While at first glance CELAC may appear united, the truth is that there may not be much “glue” to hold this massive new multinational agency together in the long run.

E-IR: Game of Thrones and State Behavior

Game of Thrones and State Behavior
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
e-International Relations
January 28, 2013
Originally published: http://www.e-ir.info/2013/01/28/game-of-thrones-and-state-behavior/


 Warning: This analysis may contain spoilers for people who haven’t read the books that make up A Song of Ice and Fire

A Song of Ice and Fire, a series of books set in a fictional world crafted by George R.R. Martin has become very popular after its adaptation as a HBO TV series entitled Game of Thrones (GoT). The books have become appealing to international relations (IR) scholars as they touch on theoretical concepts like realism and idealism, as well as issues like the success (or lack thereof) of autocratic governments and the role of women in politics in different societies. In this commentary, we will dig a little deeper, focusing on the alliance system integral not only to Martin’s fictional world but also to real-world state behavior.

VOXXI: Venezuela’s hemispheric policy under President Hugo Chavez

Venezuela's Hemispheric policy under President Hugo Chavez
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
January 28, 2013
Originally published: http://www.voxxi.com/venezuela-policy-under-hugo-chavez/

The Venezuelan National Assembly has taken an expected, yet significant action, as it has granted President Hugo Chavez more time to recuperate from his cancer surgery (he’s been in a Cuban hospital since mid-December). Chavez’s inaugural ceremony was supposed to take place on Thursday, Jan. 10, after having been elected for a new presidential term (2013-2019) last October. Due to this evolving situation, a number of political analysts are questioning whether chavismo can survive without Hugo Chavez, along with what will be the controversial president’s lasting legacy.

In respect to Latin American integration, Chavez’s goal was to become a 21^st century version of his hero, Simon Bolivar, a 19^th century South American liberator. Nevertheless, Chavez’s success record as a catalyst to bring the region together, and shield it from U.S. influence, has been mixed at best.

Hugo Chavez’s friends, allies and initiatives

The government organized the unusual show of support for the cancer-stricken leader on the streets on what was supposed to be his inauguration day. President Hugo Chavez is recovering in Cuba from complications from his cancer surgery.                                       (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

During Hugo Chavez’s fourteen-year presidential tenure, he managed to gain a number of political allies. A critical factor that attracted these powers was his rise to fame, not only in Venezuela, but also in countries rife with left-leaning governments, which personified the anti-Washington, pro-regional integration credo. Examples of such leaders include Bolivia’s Evo Morales, Ecuador’s Rafael Correa, Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega and Cuba’s Castro brothers. With such allies, Chavez managed to create the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), a loose alliance comprised of nations whose heads of state share Chavez-like ideologies.

ALBA officials claim the agency has been effective in respect to fostering commercial integration among its members. In 2009, the region created a virtual common currency to facilitate trade among its members, called the Sucre. Currently, the nations that have adopted this alternative currency are Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, Bolivia and most recently Nicaragua. According to ALBA’s executive secretary, Amenothep Zambrano, integration initiatives have been a success. Zambrano argued in a 2011 interview that for every $100 that ALBA states use for international commerce, between $10-20 is used for trade within the bloc.

In addition to ALBA, Chavez’s other major initiative was the creation of PetroCaribe, an entity that provides Venezuelan oil to Caribbean nations. As the BBC explains, the appeal of this initiative is that “member countries are allowed to retain a part of their payment in the form of a very low interest loan repaid over a twenty five year period.” PetroCaribe has allowed Chavez to gain the respect and gratitude of several Caribbean member-states such as Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica as well as Trinidad and Tobago. Although PetroCaribe’s goals appear noble, analysts have argued that the nations receiving Venezuelan oil will become heavily indebted to the oil rich country in the long term.

Tensions and incidents

While working towards achieving great regional integration among Latin American states, Hugo Chavez’s presidency (so far), has arguably become better known for its incidents involving regional neighbors. For example, in 2008 Colombia’s then-president Alvaro Uribe, without notifying Quito, carried out a military raid against a camp of FARC insurgents in Ecuadorian territory. While the raid was ultimately successful (a high-ranking FARC leader was killed), the operation caused a diplomatic incident, as Ecuador claimed its sovereignty had been violated since it had not been informed of the operation. In an effort to defend his ally, Chavez deployed his army to Colombia’s border, ready to declare war on Bogota. Fortunately the situation diffused itself and a war did not commence.

Furthermore, Chavez has been at odds with several fellow Latin American nations throughout this past decade, particularly with respect to Colombia’s Uribe Administration. In 2010, Hugo Chavez again deployed his military to the border with Colombia after being accused by the Colombian government of harboring insurgents. Another incident with a neighboring nation occurred in 2007, when Venezuelan troops allegedly crossed into Guyana in an effort to blow up gold-mining dredges. Both countries have been at odds regarding a disputed territory for years.

Moreover, at the dawn of his presidency in 2001, Chavez was engaged in a diplomatic crisis with Peru, which was under the administration of interim President Valentin Paniagua. This incident was the result of Vladimiro Montesinos, a Peruvian intelligence chief and the right hand of Dictator Alberto Fujimori, who had fled to Venezuela in order to avoid capture by Peruvian authorities. Venezuelan authorities ultimately arrested and deported Montesinos back to Lima, but there has been a long-held belief that Chavez or someone in his inner circle had been actively harboring the Peruvian criminal for months.

A final example—although there are others—of the tensions between Chavez and neighboring governments, relates to the instance of Brazil’s Congress continuously blocking Venezuelan membership to the trading bloc MERCOSUR. After years of waiting, Venezuela finally gained membership in 2012. Chavez’s close ties with Brazilian Presidents Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff did not prevent the Brazilian legislative from blocking Caracas’ attempts to join the bloc for several years.

Hugo Chavez as Bolivar 2.0

Since his election in 1999, President Hugo Chavez has often referred to Simon Bolivar throughout his speeches. More than once, Chavez held Bolivar’s sword to show himself as his successor. But the Venezuelan leader has experienced limited success in uniting South America, let alone all of Latin America and the Caribbean. Chavez has utilized the wave of leftist governments that have took over the region throughout the last decade, and has managed to foster relationships with leaders such as Bolivia’s Morales and Ecuador’s Correa, which has allowed him to create entities such as ALBA and PetroCaribe.

In spite of this, the Venezuelan outspoken leader has what some would consider reckless behavior, resulting in clashes with other heads of state, particularly in the case of Colombia’s Alvaro Uribe. Should Chavez manage to fulfill another six-year presidential term, it will be interesting to see what form his foreign policies will take. It remains to be seen if Venezuela’s domestic circumstances will allow him to continue his aggressive foreign policy positions, including his use of oil as a diplomatic weapon. Chavez has attempted to amend the inter-American system by replacing long-standing U.S. influence with that of a greater Latin American authority and with Venezuela guiding the process. Despite his best efforts, Hugo Chavez has certainly remained determined to achieve his goal, and has been marginally successful.

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Read more: http://www.voxxi.com/venezuela-policy-under-hugo-chavez/#ixzz2JJvzQUgr

BLOUIN: Colombia’s security problems go far beyond the FARC

Colombia's Security Problems go far beyond the FARC
W. Alex Sanchez
Blouin Beat: Politics
January 23, 2013
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatpolitics/2013/01/23/colombias-security-problems-go-far-beyond-the-farc/

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Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos gestures during a joint press conference with former US president and 2002 Nobel peace prize laureate, Jimmy Carter (out of frame) after a meeting on January 12, 2013, at Narino Presidential Palace in Bogota, Colombia. AFP PHOTO/Guillermo LEGARIA

As media continue to delve into the bloody aftermath of Algeria’s hostage crisis, a similar situation is unfolding in South America. Five employees of Canada’s Braeval Mining are currently in the hands of a Colombian insurgent movement, the National Liberation Army (ELN). This incident highlights two important but often-overlooked facts. One, kidnapping civilians is still a common tactic used by insurgent movements from North Africa to South America.  Two, Colombia has security challenges other than the FARC to face.

The ELN is the country’s second-largest rebel group, and the Braeval Mining kidnapping is not its first foray into the business in recent memory: members seized 11 employees of an oil company last February and held them hostage for days before releasing them in early March. The freshest reports on the Braeval hostages indicate that the five individuals (two Peruvians, two Colombians and one Canadian) were at a gold mine in the Norosi region (north of Bogota) when they were kidnapped by an ELN unit known as “Simon Bolivar.” The miners remain, as noted, in ELN’s hands as Peruvian President Ollanta Humala and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos discuss the status of the hostages. The Peruvian Ministry of Defense has declared that it will send a navy officer to Bogota to serve as a liaison with local authorities as the Colombian military tracks down the hostages. Meanwhile, Colombian security forces have reported the capture of three ELN guerrillas involved in the kidnapping, and suggest this advancement as a sign that they are closing in on the ELN bloc.

This comes as unwelcome news for the Colombian government, which has spent months meeting with FARC representatives in Norway and Cuba to discuss an end to the decades-old internal war. As a sign of good faith the FARC had declared a unilateral two-month cease-fire during negotiations – but the truce expired this past Sunday. Nevertheless, during the temporary cease-fire Bogota stated that the FARC had violated their own cease-fire 52 times.

True, Bogota coming to peace terms with insurgents is not without precedent — in the late 1980s, the government of Virgilio Barco Vargas reached a peace agreement with the group M19, which eventually demobilized and became a political party. But this point it looks, understandably, uncertain if the peace talks will progress. And even if some permanent agreement is reached, it will leave many loose ends. Santos has focused his efforts more or less exclusively on the FARC. And a deal with them is not a deal with the ELN. Or with the smaller criminal groups heavily involved in drug trafficking — known as BACRIM, for bandas criminales or criminal gangs – that have become widespread in Colombia. One of the BACRIMs is the group known as Los Rastrojos, suspected of having carried out a massacre in which 10 Colombian peasants were killed in November. (A major Rastrojo leader, Jhoyner Aljhady Cabrera Rivera, was recently captured; his arrest, however, did no real damage to the group’s functioning).

In other words, shutting down the war with the FARC will do little to end battles with any of the other paramilitary or criminal groups currently challenging governmental sovereignty in Colombia. Patience may be a key part of diplomacy. But it is doubtful whether any populace would be willing to wait out the seemingly interminable peace process here – especially since it would likely clear the field for a new top insurgent group.

VOXXI: Barack Obama needs a staff that has Latin America in mind

Barack Obama needs a staff that has Latin America in mind
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
January 23, 2013
Originally published: http://www.voxxi.com/obama-staff-thinks-latin-america/

President Barack Obama was inaugurated for his second term in office this past Monday. Obama’s new presidential term signals significant changes to his cabinet, and many expect that these changes will bring much greater gender and ethnic diversity to his body of advisors. For example, the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) has urged the president to have at least two Latinos on his cabinet, particularly as Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar and Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis will vacate their posts. Greater ethnic diversity is welcome, yet in order for the new administration to properly craft more progressive foreign policy initiatives toward Latin America and the Caribbean, the president’s cabinet will require members who possess more than just a Latino heritage. In other words, it will be important for the president to appoint individuals who are Latin Americanists, namely policymakers with deep knowledge of U.S. relations with the region. We will briefly go over some of the most prominent of these policymakers who will be important in the coming years as Washington formulates its foreign policy toward its southern neighbors.

Individuals to watch out for

President Barack Obama looks to Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., as he announces Kerry’s nomination for the next secretary of state. Kerry’s Latin America expertise is under the microscope. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

With Hillary Clinton stepping down from her post as Secretary of State, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) has been selected by President Obama to succeed her. It is worthy to note that the Democrat has received mixed reviews regarding his Latin American knowledge. For example, a December 23 Wall Street Journal commentary by Mary O’Grady heavily critiqued Kerry’s positions during Nicaragua’s Contra-Sandinista war during the 1980s, as well as his stance on the 2009 Honduran coup. In contrast, other analyses have praised Kerry as being an individual who shows the potential to improve the difficult relations between Washington and Cuba. When Kerry does become the top U.S. diplomat, a key individual advising him will be the Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs, a position currently occupied by Roberta Jacobson. Jacobson should prove to be a welcome aide to Kerry, as in her career she has consistently shown a strong knowledge of topics such as NAFTA and security issues in Mexico.

Regarding the Defense Department, Frank Mora will step down from his post as deputy assistant secretary (DAS) for Latin America. Mr. Mora has held the post for over three years and will move on to the world of academia as director of Florida International University’s Latin American and Caribbean Center. It is still unclear who will replace him, but it is likely that the Obama administration will first want to have the new secretary of defense confirmed (he has already nominated Chuck Hagel), before a new DAS for Latin America is chosen. Regarding the U.S. military, General John F. Kelly has been the commander of Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) since this past November. During his first days as the head of SOUTHCOM, he publicly praised the ongoing peace talks between the Colombian government and FARC insurgents, but chose not to discuss U.S.-Cuba relations (including the fate of the detention center in Guantanamo).

Finally, an interesting development has been Obama’s decision to name Denis McDonough as his new chief of staff. McDonough shows great promise and is knowledgeable about Latin American issues. For example, during his youth, prior to pursuing studies at Georgetown University, he spent two years teaching in Belize. In addition, he specialized in Latin America while he was an aide at the House International Relations Committee.

Issues in Latin America

In an early January speech given at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, Robert Hale — the current under secretary and chief financial officer at the Defense Department — expressed that in the upcoming years Washington’s main geo-strategic interests will be based around the Asia-Pacific region. This is hardly a surprising statement as other government officials have previously made declarations about the Obama administration’s “pivot” from the Middle East to Asia. In light of this, it is clear that in order for the new administration to advance constructive and progressive initiatives in Latin America and the Caribbean, it will be important for influential policymakers — such as those previously discussed — to remind the president of the continent’s importance.

Combating illegal narcotics trafficking will continue to be the cornerstone of Washington’s current policies toward the region, but other issues are clearly still important. One of the most important is the U.S. government’s relationship with Cuba, particularly whether Washington will take any action as a reaction to Havana’s recent decision to relax its travel restriction laws and as Raul Castro continues to liberalize the island’s economy.

Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez. U.S. policy on Latin America could be affected should Chavez fall to cancer. (AP Photo/Ricardo Mazalan)

Additionally, there is the ongoing situation in Venezuela, with a very-ill President Hugo Chavez in a Cuban hospital since December, which could escalate into a constitutional crisis in the coming months. Incidentally, some months ago, Roberta Jacobson held a telephone conversation with Venezuelan Vice President and interim head of state Nicolas Maduro — among the topics discussed was the possibility of the two countries restoring diplomatic relations. Other continental affairs that Washington will have to address include a March referendum in the Falkland Islands, in which the islanders are expected to overwhelmingly vote “yes” to the question of whether they want to remain a British overseas territory. Also, the future is uncertain for the U.S. military base in Honduras (known as Palmerola), as the Honduran government has shown interest in taking over the base’s airstrip with the intent of turning it into a commercial airport. SOUTHCOM and the next Defense Department’s official in charge of Latin America will certainly have to contend with the developments regarding the future of the Palmerola base.

There are plenty of outstanding issues that Washington can address regarding Latin America and the Caribbean, therefore it will be interesting to see how much attention the region will receive in the coming years in view of Washington’s changing priorities and President Obama’s new cabinet. To ensure the region is not forgotten, a factor of critical importance will be not just the ethnicity, but also the specialized knowledge of the new government officials during Obama’s second term.

Read more: http://www.voxxi.com/obama-staff-thinks-latin-america/#ixzz2IpdM7wZ5