Blouin World: Rio Olympics: What’s the worst that could happen?

"Rio Olympics: What's the worst that could happen?"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin Beat: World
April 8, 2016
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2016/04/08/rio-olympics-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/

The Brazilian government, presidential scandals aside, is focused on ensuring that the upcoming Summer Olympics and Paralympics in Rio de Janeiro occur successfully and peacefully. The event is expected to attract between 350 to 500 thousand foreign tourists, not counting the 10 thousand athletes that will compete in 42 different sports. The question is: what security-related incident is Brasilia trying to prevent?

The obvious answer is some type of terrorist operation, with the 2015 attacks in Paris and Brussels by ISIS serving as a recent and tragic precedent. In fact, the Paris attacks occurred while a friendly soccer match between France and Germany was taking place at the Stade de France. Moreover, there is already the precedent of one successful terrorist attack during an Olympic event: the 1972 Munich attacks carried out by the Palestinian Black September group, which killed 11 Israeli Olympian athletes and one German police officer.

In order to prepare for the worst-case scenario, the Brazilian security and defense forces will carry out an unprecedented operation. Brazilian Defense Minister Aldo Rebelo announced in March that 38 thousand military personnel will be deployed, with 20 thousand in Rio itself, not counting personnel from other security agencies. According to the Brazilian Defense Ministry, Rio will be divided into four defense command sections (CDS Deodoro, CDS Maracana, CDS Copacabana and CDS Barra da Tijuca) in order for the security forces to better monitor the Olympic venues. Rio certainly appears to be ready for the Olympics from a security perspective as the defense commands are training for any type of incident, be it a terrorist attack or even nuclear, radiological or biological threats.

Nevertheless, this preparedness program has not been scandal-free. Case in point: In late March, Colonel Adilson Moreira from the National Force for Public Security resigned after sending an e-mail to his colleagues that was critical of President Dilma Rousseff.

It is worth noting that, some protests aside, the Brazilian government has successfully organized major sporting events in recent years, namely the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup and the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Moreover, Gustavo Palhares, a partner at Furriela Advogados (a São Paulo law firm with a branch in Washington DC), told me that “for the past decade, the city and state of Rio have invested in security, particularly to ‘pacify’ the favelas [shantytowns]; although crime has not disappeared in Rio, the city is more prepared than ever to host the Olympic Games.”

Indeed, as Palhares explained, rather than some terrorist attack à la Munich 1972, the major concern regarding the upcoming Games is crime, i.e., the possibility of tourists or athletes being robbed (or worse) by the city’s numerous gangs. Unfortunately, there have been recent incidents that stress this possibility. For example, in January, four people were killed and 11 were injuredwhen criminals attacked a bar in Rio’s western area, in Vargem Pequena. Then, in mid-March, a member of a Pacifying Police Unit (Unidad de Policia Pacificadora, UPP) was murdered by unknown bandits in broad daylight during a routine patrol. Finally, and in an ironic development,Lieutenant-Colonel Murilo Angelloti of the Copacabana division of the Military Police (BPM) was recently the victim of a robbery. When he left his home on Sunday, April 3, three men held him at gunpoint and stole his car. Palhares clarified that “these crimes occurred in areas of the city where the Games will not take place.”

The aforementioned examples demonstrate that crime in Rio has been contained, rather than completely eradicated. Certainly, it would be naïve to believe that crime in a city like Rio (with a population of well over six million) could be fully solved via the pacification operations.

Ultimately, it is necessary to place potential crimes (not terrorist attacks) during the Olympics in the context of Brazil’s current tense political situation. Should foreign tourists or Olympian athletes be mugged, as Palhares explains, this will negatively affect President Dilma Rousseff’s image, “especially at a moment when she is in a political war to save her presidency.” While the possibility of a terrorist attack in Rio is arguably extremely remote, even a wave of robberies may be enough to hurt the president.

- W. Alejandro Sanchez, researcher
@W_Alex_Sanchez | Blog: Geopolitics

Blouin Politics: Uruguayan navy forced to evolve in peacetime

"Uruguayan Navy forced to evolve in Peacetime"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin Beat: Politics
March 22, 2016
Originally published: http://blouinnews.com/91541/story/uruguayan-navy-forced-evolve-peacetime

Uruguay’s military is undergoing a transformation. Its limited defense budget, combined with no apparent traditional security threat, means that its armed forces must find a new raison d’être in order to justify obtaining new equipment. A prime example of this evolution is the Uruguayan Navy, which is currently attempting to choose the ideal offshore patrol vessel (OPV) to efficiently monitor its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Due to space issues, we will simply define OPVs as small vessels (between 60-90m long) that are utilized for coastal patrol to combat crimes like drug trafficking, illegal fishing, as well as carrying out search and rescue operations.  The fact that Uruguay regards them as the future cornerstone of its naval platforms explains the geopolitical situation in the South Atlanticnowadays. Montevideo enjoys positive relations with its two neighbors, Brazil and Argentina (the dispute with Buenos Aires over a controversial pulp mill notwithstanding), to the point that an inter-state war with either state is too farfetched to be realistically hypothesized. Hence, in order to justify its existence and budget, the South American nation’s navy is now focusing on combating non-traditional maritime threats, such as drug trafficking and illegal fishing. In order to achieve this, Uruguay needs a fleet of small but fast vessels that can monitor its EEZ, namely OPVs.

The need for a modern fleet that can patrol a country’s EEZ was made by a recent incident in which Argentina’s Coast Guard sank a Chinese vessel that was illegally fishing in its territorial waters. Buenos Aires argues that its Coast Guard shot at and sank the vessel after an ineffective chase that lasted hours. The Chinese government has declared that it is “very worried” about the incident.

As for Uruguay’s navy, back in 2013 the Uruguayan daily El País quoted Rear Admiral Daniel Núñez Rodriguez as saying that the fleet’s status was “disastrous” as several of its vessels are decades old and should be retired. To stress that point, in January an Uruguayan vessel, theROU Vanguardia, had to be rescued by a Chilean vessel when it was trapped in a storm in Antarctica and its motor reportedly suffered malfunctions.

The Uruguayan government seems to (finally) recognize this urgency and plans to purchase between two and three OPVs to modernize its fleet. This interest has caught the eyes of several important military industrial companies.

For example, in February the French Navy sent its OPV L’Adroit to Uruguay, both as a good will visit and as a way to showcase the vessel to Montevideo – unsurprisingly, the arrival of the vessel occurred only a couple of weeks before a visit by French President Francois Hollande to Uruguay. L’Adroit is produced by the French shipyard DCNS. Another European competitor for the contract is the German company Luerssen, which is offering its OPV 80.

It is worth noting that companies outside of Europe are also looking to win this coveted contract. One good example is Austal. The Australian company is known for its deals with the U.S. Navyto construct Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) such as the USS Montgomery. However, Austal produces smaller vessels like the High Speed Support Vessel (HSSV 72), which Oman has acquired, and the Patrol 58-cape class, which Austal constructed for Australia. Austal is already well regarded for its LCS warships, so it will be interesting to see if this pedigree helps their OPVs enter the Latin American market via Uruguay.

Uruguayan President Tabaré Vázquez can govern with the certainty that his country does not face any major security threats (e.g., Brazil trying to invade the country).  And while the Uruguayan military is not at a crossroads per se, it is nonetheless in the process of transforming itself into a new force that will focus on combating non-traditional security threats. Choosing the correct OPVs is the first step for the Uruguayan navy to effectively face its 21st century challenges.

Blouin Beat: World - Will ‘Narcos’ stick to reality, mystery safe and all?

"Will 'Narcos' stick to reality, mystery safe and all?"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin Beat: World
February 1, 2016
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2016/02/01/will-narcos-stick-to-reality-mystery-safe-and-all/

In addition to periodic coverage of geopolitics in Latin America, W. Alejandro Sanchez has previously reported on substance abuse in Netflix’s ‘Jessica Jones’ and whether cyber warfare is accurately depicted in the USA network’s ‘Mr. Robot.’ 

A

 metal safe has been discovered by workers demolishing a Miami mansion overlooking Biscayne Bay, which was owned by the late Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar. Given the existing mythology around the notorious criminal, we can expect significant speculation about the safe’s contents until it is opened.

Escobar’s life has been well documented. For example, Mark Bowden’s book Killing Pablo: The Hunt for the World’s Greatest Outlaw, is a must-read for anyone interested in the late criminal. Additionally, Juan Pablo Escobar, the narco lord’s son, has published a biography entitled Pablo Escobar: Mi Padre (My Father), in which he labels his father as a “drug trafficker, terrorist and assassin.” Additionally, there are television and movie productions about Escobar. For example, a Colombian series was produced about his life, entitled ‘Pablo Escobar: El Patron del Mal’ (‘The Lord of Evil’), while Guillermo del Toro portrayed him in the 2015 film ‘Paradise Lost.’

Recently, Escobar became a household name in the U.S. due to ‘Narcos,’ a Netflix series that describes his life, his drug empire and the operations carried out by Colombian and U.S. security agencies to hunt him down. The series has generally remained true to history, though there are some exaggerations or adaptations of what really happened. Case in point: in one episode, Escobar and his bodyguards kill Ivan Marino Ospina (AKA “Ivan The Terrible”) a leader of the M-19 revolutionary movement. In reality, Ospina was killed by Colombian security forces.

Season 1 of ‘Narcos’ ended with Escobar fleeing the golden prison, known as “La Catedral,” that he had constructed for himself. The show’s popularity prompted it to be renewed for a second season, which will revolve around the Colombian and U.S. governments tracking Escobar down until his death on December 2, 1993. If ‘Narcos’ hews to history, Escobar will be shot on a rooftop in Medellin by members of a Colombian police unit known as Search Bloc, which was tasked with finding him. Then again, ‘Narcos’ may try to be vague about who killed Escobar, as there are theories that his murder was carried out by narco-paramilitaries (see the book This Is How We Killed The Boss), or maybe even U.S. Delta snipers (Bowden hints at this in Killing Pablo), while his son Juan Pablo argues that the drug lord killed himself to avoid being captured (and in all likelihood extradited to the U.S.).

It would be amusing if ‘Narcos’ decides to address the recently found safe. After fleeing La Catedral, Escobar remained in hiding and did not travel to Miami, but there could be a flashback scene of Escobar or one of his henchmen closing the safe one last time. The Miami Heraldexplains that Escobar bought the mansion in March 1980 for $762,500, and it was seized by the U.S. government in 1987 as Washington stepped up its fight against him.

At the time of this writing, the new owners of Escobar’s home have yet to open the 600 pound metal safe – inside there could be money, weapons, drugs or even documents that incriminate Miami businesses and individuals that were part of Escobar’s narco-empire. According to theBBC, “workers had already found one safe in the house shortly after demolition work began, but it disappeared before anyone could examine it,” which only adds to the mystery.

As ‘Narcos’ mentions at the beginning of the series, Colombia is the birthplace of the literary movement known as “realismo mágico,” magic realism, where magic and reality co-exist in harmony. When it comes to Pablo Escobar’s criminal life, there is certainly much “mágico” in his reality.

Blouin News: Drones on film: ‘Eye in the Sky’

"Drones on Film: 'Eye in the Sky'"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin News - Technology
February 22, 2016
Originally published: http://blouinnews.com/89471/story/drones-film-%E2%80%98eye-sky%E2%80%99

In addition to periodic coverage of geopolitics in Latin America, W. Alejandro Sanchez has previously reported on substance abuse in Netflix’s ‘Jessica Jones’ and whether cyber warfare is accurately depicted in the USA network's ‘Mr. Robot.’ 

A new film about the (lethal) usage of unmannered aerial vehicles (UAVs) will hit the big screen soon. On March 11, ‘Eye in the Sky’ will have a limited release in the U.S. The film premiered at the 2015 Toronto International Film Festival and has been praised for its portrayal of modern warfare. Indeed, drones are becoming a cornerstone of security and defense agencies worldwide and it’s interesting to see how ‘Eye in the Sky’ portrays this technology.

 The film’s plot is as follows: a combined U.S-UK intelligence operation is being carried out in Nairobi, Kenya. A drone has located a British female citizen who converted to Islam and joinedAl-Shabaab, a real-world terrorist organization. The operation quickly goes from surveillance to target-killing when a bird-sized drone shows that alongside the wanted woman is another terrorist preparing a suicide vest. This twist prompts a debate between British and American policymakers, military leaders, mission commanders and even the drone operators. Notably: Is an attack by an armed drone on the terrorist house necessary and legal? Moreover, does the death of two high-profile terrorists justify the likely collateral damage (in this case, the death of at least one civilian girl who is near the target)?

If the movie is as engaging as the trailer, ‘Eye in the Sky’ could become a military classic, akin to ‘Rules of Engagement’ or ‘Dr Strangelove’ (a Variety film review states that it recalls the Stanley Kubrick film). And for analysts like myself who follow drone technology, this movie appears to address all the key points about the controversial usage of these weapons.

One issue that the trailer correctly portrays is the rapid real-world development of drone technology. ‘Eye in the Sky’ introduces miniature drones complete with high-quality camera feeds.  In the movie, we see bird and insect mini-drones that fly into the terrorists’ house to identify the occupants. In reality, such mini-drones already exist. In 2015, for example, U.S. military scientists created a miniature drone called the Cicada. According to DefenseNews.com, with “no motor and only about 10 parts” the Cicada “resembles a paper airplane with a circuit board.” It was manufactured to glide to pre-programmed GPS coordinates after being dropped from an aircraft or even a bigger drone.

The potential of mini-drones is seemingly endless, as recently noted by the Israeli defense news company i-HLS: “coupled with a distributed explosive-carrying capacity, [a group of them] could make for a cheap, hard to detect yet easy to deliver killing swarm.”

As for the plot of the film itself, the issue of collateral damage is a clear echo of real life as thousands of civilians in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and in the Horn of Africa have died as result of attacks by armed drones, which were targeting insurgents in the near surroundings. And from the trailer, it appears that the characters’ arguments are similar to those that really take place in Washington and London.

Of particular interest will be how the movie displays the emotions of the drone operators. The trailer shows a drone operator boldly declaring “I will fire [this missile] when this [innocent civilian] girl is out of the way.” The effects of drone warfare on operators are only now beginning to be properly studied and understood. For example, Sudden Justice: America’s Secret Drone Wars has a comprehensive chapter entitled “The Intimacy of Remote Killing,” which includes various testimonies of drone operators and how remote killing affects them. Author Chris Woods concludes, “the [U.S.] Air Force rushed to expand its armed drone fleet following huge battlefield demand. Yet there was little understanding at first of the strains this would place on thousands of personnel fighting from the home front” (p. 173). Given this lack of detailed understanding, let’s hope that, at the least, films like ‘Eye in the Sky’ that deal with UAVs will properly address the psychological stresses of this job. Not to mention accurately display the real-life complexities of drone warfare, which, in a post-War on Terror world, will only continue to grow.