VOXXI: Hugo Chavez inauguration dilemma, and Venezuelan law on succession

Hugo Chavez inauguration dilemma, and Venezuelan Law on Succession
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
January 4, 2013
Originally published: http://bit.ly/TPk059

Venezuela’s ruling political party, PSUV (United Socialist Party of Venezuela), should be feeling quite good after President Hugo Chavez won yet another bid for reelection in early October (he obtained 55 percent of the vote, compared to 44 percent for opposition candidate Henrique Capriles). In addition to holding on to the presidency, the PSUV won convincingly in the December 16 regional elections for governors and regional councils.

Nevertheless, tensions are building at the PSUV headquarters and the Palacio of Miraflores. Supporters and colleagues of President Chavez have anxiously been waiting for more information on his health condition as he recovers from his most recent round of cancer surgery in Cuba. The president has been in a Cuban hospital since mid-December, recovering from a recent operation aimed to treat his reoccurring cancer that has afflicted him since at least mid-2011. According to the latest reports, Hugo Chavez’s status has taken a turn for the worse due to new complications; recent rumors say that the controversial leader is on life support.

Venezuelan law on reelections

Several articles of the Venezuelan Constitution (a Spanish version can be found here) state the protocol regarding the president elect’s ascension to power as well as legal justifications to hold new elections. For example, Article 231 explains that the head of state will be inaugurated on January 10 in front of the National Assembly. If the president-elect is physically unable to stand in front of the National Assembly he or she may take the oath of office before the Venezuelan Supreme Court.

The current dilemma, however, is that the constitution is missing a provision that would come into effect in the event the president-elect is completely unable to attend his own inauguration. The closest article that pertains to this scenario is Article 233, which states that the president must vacate his position in the event of a debilitating illness—and only if and when the medical ailment is verified by a medical board assembled by the Supreme Court and approved by the National Assembly. In the case that the illness results in a permanent absence from office (the term utilized in the constitution is a falta absoluta, in Spanish ) new elections must take place within 30 days (this clause only takes effect if the absence occurs within the first four years of the presidential term).

Vice president and interim head of state Nicolas Maduro has denied that new elections will be necessary. Several government officials have also stated that there are no plans to change the date of the ceremony, however, in statements picked up by the BBC, Diosdado Cabello, president of the National Assembly, stated that the January 10 date may be postponed. The congressman argued that laws should be interpreted in a “positive manner” and “no se puede anteponer la rigidez de una fecha a la voluntad popular” (a strict deadline cannot overshadow the will of the people). Considering that Venezuela’s Supreme Court is generally made up of Hugo Chavez-friendly judges, it is conceivable that in a worst case scenario the court could reinterpret or amend the aforementioned constitutional articles to allow Chavez more time to recuperate.

The opposition and Jan. 10

While the opposition hasn’t called for major protests to put pressure on the government, some opposition personalities have declared to the media that Maduro should call for new elections if Hugo Chavez is not in Caracas on January 10 . A reason for this deceleration may be the result of the December 16 elections.

In a December commentary for VOXXI, I mused how the D-16 elections, with a sick Hugo Chavez in Cuba, would provide an idea of what the Venezuelan population is thinking regarding its government. After the elections, the PSUV now controls the vast majority of governorships, in addition to having a majority of the legislative councils.

In fact, the opposition now only controls three out of the 23 states, as compared to the seven they occupied prior to the elections (Henrique Capriles managed to be re-elected as governor of the state of Miranda). Regional deputies are also overwhelmingly pro-Chavez as the PSUV won 186 spots compared to the opposition’s 51. This development, in addition to the vast margin with which Capriles lost to Chavez, may have alerted the opposition to the public’s less than overwhelming approval of its policies. Additionally, the opposition may be waiting until the government makes its move regarding January 10 to decide what its next step should be.

Due to Hugo Chavez’s ailment, one constant question regarding the possibility of new elections has been whether Capriles (the natural opposition candidate) could defeat Vice President Maduro (selected by Hugo Chavez to be his successor prior to his latest trip to Cuba). Capriles recently stated that chavismo is “very vulnerable” without Chavez at the helm, but so far he has not stated an intention to again run for the presidency, this time against the vice-president. Capriles has also recently tweeted that Venezuelans should not fall for the plethora of pessimistic rumors regarding the president’s health.

Hugo Chavez’s legacy

At the time of this writing, news outlets are saying that the Venezuelan head of state’s bill of health has worsened, declaring that he may be at death’s door. With less than a week before January 10, concerns regarding his health go hand in hand with a wave of analyses discussing succession and the possible actions that the government (including factions within the PSUV), opposition, and military may carry out if Hugo Chavez cannot resume command.

There is always the remote possibility that this health scare may not amount to anything in the end; with Chavez eventually recuperating and being sworn in to office. Nevertheless, even in best case scenarios, it is unlikely that he will be able to complete another six-year term (until 2019) if his cancer does not stay in remission.

As a result, succession will most likely happen sooner or later (besides Maduro, it seems that Diosdado Cabello also wants to make a run at the presidency). If this situation has proven anything, it is the fragility of Chavez’s party and government after over a decade in power—as the PSUV and leaders within the party revolve around Chavez’s persona, rather than forming a tight-knit union around their shared political ideals.

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COHA Spanish Blog: 1600 PENN: NUEVA COMEDIA AMERICANA COMIENZA DISCUTIENDO LAS RELACIONES ENTRE EEUU Y LATINOAMÉRICA

1600 Penn: Nueva Comedia Americana Comienza Discutiendo Las Relaciones Entre EEUU y Latino America
W. Alex Sanchez
COHA Spanish Blog
Council on Hemispheric Affairs
Enero 4, 2013
Originally published: http://bit.ly/VoYWBY

W. Alejandro Sanchez, Analista de Seguridad Internacional-

La cadena americana de televisión, NBC, ha creado una nueva comedia llamada 1600 Penn, en referencia a 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, la dirección en Washington DC donde está situada la Casa Blanca. Como uno puede imaginar, el programa trata, desde un punto de vista cómico, la vida de la ficticia familia presidencial  Gilchrist.

Curiosamente, el primer episodio de este show trata acerca del presidente Americano, Dale Gilchrist, quien quiere firmar un tratado de comercio con varios países latinoamericanos. En este episodio, los presidentes de la región viajan a la Casa Blanca para reunirse con el líder americano para discutir dicho acuerdo. El problema comienza cuando el presidente de Brasil (llamado Enrique Hernando Feliz Navidad de Soto) impide a los otros presidentes firmar el tratado; en una escena el presidente de Ecuador dice que su par brasileño  es un bully que le deja amenazantes mensajes por teléfono. La razón por la que el mandatario brasileño no quiere firmar el tratado no tiene que ver con los intereses nacionales de su país; más bien es por razones personales, ya que el presidente Gilchrist lo derrotó, y humilló, en un partido amistoso de jai alai que los dos habían jugado anteriormente durante una reunión del grupo G-20.

Últimamente, varias películas y shows de televisión americanos han sido analizados por expertos de política, seguridad y relaciones internacionales; hasta se podría decir que se ha creado un subgénero de estudios: el análisis de cómo muestra Hollywood la política internacional, la diplomacia entre estados etc. Por ejemplo, el programa Homeland ha sido analizado en el sentido de cómo se muestran las operaciones de la CIA para buscar a grupos terroristas. Además, el popular show Game of Thrones ha sido analizado por la forma en que muestra las teorías de relaciones internacionales. Estos análisis han aparecido en la prestigiosa revista de política internacional, Foreign Affairs. Recientemente, el nuevo film “Zero Dark Thirty” (que trata de la operación que eliminó al terrorista Osama Bin Laden), fue analizada en un comentario para CNN por el General Michael V. Hayden, ex director de la CIA (2006-2009). A título personal, puedo decir que hace unos meses escribí un análisis para mi organización, el Consejo de Asuntos Hemisfericos (COHA), dondeanalizo el film de James Bond “Quantum of Solace.” En el artículo, examino  cómo la película tratatemas sobre la política del agua y la posibilidad de un golpe de estado en Bolivia.

En la televisión y filmes americanos, usualmente los latinos son estereotipados como narcotraficantes  y otro tipo de criminales. Hasta el personaje de la despampanante Sofia Vergara, del show Modern Family, usualmente hace bromas de su procedencia: una violenta villa de Colombia y de tener  parientes en un cartel de narcos. En cuanto a 1600 Penn, el episodio llega a su término con el inepto hijo del presidente convenciendo a los líderes latinoamericanos de que se unan y no permitan que el presidente de Brasil imponga su voluntad; al final los líderes firman el tratado de comercio que tanto deseaba el presidente americano.

Curiosamente, el pequeño episodio muestra más o menos correctamente cómo son las relaciones actuales entre Estados Unidos y la región latinoamericana. Es cierto que Brasil es una potencia regional y está intentando tener una mayor influencia sobre países vecinos a la vez que intenta disminuir la influencia de Washington. Sin embargo, es difícil pensar que Rafael Correa, el presidente de Ecuador, acudiría al presidente americano para que lo ayudara a defenderse del “bully” que representa Brasil en el episodio. A veces un episodio de televisión no es más que eso y los escritores no intentaban ofender a nadie. Con eso dicho, es interesante que, para variar, en vez de mostrar a los latinos como criminales, Hollywood, vía 1600 Penn,muestre a los líderes de la región.

VOXXI: Cuba ends 2012 looking for oil and with Castro brothers still in power

Cuba ends 2012 looking for Oil and with Castro brothers still in power
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
December 26, 2012
Available: http://www.voxxi.com/cuba-2012-oil-castro-brothers-power/

The structure of the Cuban government is unlikely to change in 2013 as the Castro brothers appear to remain firmly in power and continue to search for oil.

Fidel Castro, the former president of Cuba who ruled the island for five decades, has been nominated to run for a position in the Cuban Parliament in the upcoming February 2013 elections. The move is largely a symbolic one, since Castro, despite no longer being head of state, still enjoys a great deal of influence within the Cuban government and is regularly consulted on state affairs. In other words, Castro hardly needs an official government position to be influential in Cuba’s decision-making process.

Regardless of this, given Castro’s frail state, it is unclear if the man will be able to actually take his seat in the National Assembly when elected (it is hard to imagine that he would not be). If he is not well enough to assume his parliamentary seat, there may be an agreement allowing him to choose someone to replace him.

Meanwhile, Fidel’s brother, Raul Castro, continues as president of the island nation, although that apparently has not prevented him from also being nominated as a municipal representative in the upcoming elections. The structure of the Cuban government is unlikely to change in 2013 as the Castro brothers, in spite of their advanced age (both are in their 80s), appear to remain firmly in power. It will be interesting to see what developments the New Year brings to the island. Of particular interest are economic and international affairs, particularly those regarding the U.S.

Castro brothers, economics and the continuous search for oil

The nomination of the Castro brothers to the Cuban Parliament, considering that they have jointly ruled the island since the 1950s, is slightly bizarre to say the least. Nevertheless, it is clear that the island, under Raul Castro’s rule, has evolved from Fidel’s Cuba. This is particularly true when it comes to the economy. Under Raul, the island’s Communist government has taken some steps to modernize its socialist economy, particularly by allowing the appearance of privately owned businesses. The head of state has declared that “today, nearly 40 thousand Cubans have licenses to have autonomous work or small businesses.”

An interesting development that may further affect the Cuban economy is the plan announced by the Russian oil company Zarubezhneft to utilize a Norwegian oil platform as means of continuing to search for deep-water oil deposits in the Cuban sea. For years there have been diverse reports about exactly how much oil Cuba possesses, but so far the numerous explorations have yet to find wells that yield commercially viable quantities of the liquid gold. If Cuba were ever able to actually find and produce massive quantities of oil (it claims to have up to 20 billion barrels while other analyses give a more modest number) this would be a huge turning point for the Cuban economy. But until this happens, the island will remain at the mercy of Venezuela, which, under Hugo Chavez’s rule, has essentially given thousands of barrels of oil to the island as a gift.

This brings up another issue as President Chavez’ deteriorating health, exemplified by his recent trip to Cuba for a new operation to deal with his cancer, should have put the Cuban government on alert as a non-Chavez government may not be so willing to essentially give away oil. Fortunately for Havana, Chavez’s health seems to be improving, which means that Cuba will continue to enjoy more essentially-free Venezuelan oil during the immediate future, at least until it discovers some of its own.

Relations with the US have yet to improve

Even though U.S. President Barack Obama has not fully lifted the embargo on the island during his first term in office, many Cubans and Americans hope that he will do so during his second term. Such a development would go a long way in improving U.S. diplomacy, and not only with Cuba but also with the rest of Latin America. During the Summit of the Americas held in Cartagena, Colombia, several heads of states protested the fact that Cuba had not been invited to take part in the high-level meeting because Washington opposed their participation. Despite the positive benefits that the United States would garner from such a move, it is still unlikely that President Obama will fully lift the embargo due to congressional political barriers.

During the 2012 presidential campaign, Obama stated during an interview with The Daily Show with Jon Stewart that he still had his mind set on closing the U.S. naval base detention facility in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. While not related with the embargo, closing Guantanamo’s controversial prison would be a huge victory for the Obama administration and be influential for U.S.-Cuban relations.

Cuba in 2013

2013 should be an interesting year for Cuba. If the Russian drilling team finally finds enough oil to make it commercially viable to extract, it would signify a critical influx of cash into the Cuban economy. This development, which may be a long shot since past drilling explorations have not been successful, comes at an important time for the island. The Castro brothers remain in power, but the historically protective and state-run Cuban economy continues to liberalize, albeit at a snail’s pace.

Fortunately for the Cuban government, it will continue to enjoy several regional allies thanks to Hugo Chávez’s improving health (which will mean more oil to Cuba ) and the near certainty that leftist Rafael Correa will be re-elected in Ecuador’s 2013 Presidential election. Regarding the U.S., Obama’s re-election might signal improved relations, but Havana is going to have to do its part as well. Liberalizing the economy is important, but so is stopping unwarranted arrests such as that of the 19 opposition activists, members of the Damas de Blanco (Ladies in White), who were arrested in March or theactivists that were recently detained in early December. The discovery of oil, the emergence of privately-owned businesses and better diplomatic relations with its neighbors (i.e. Washington) are all important issues for Havana, but so should be maintaining a healthy relationship between the government and the citizenry.

Read more: http://www.voxxi.com/cuba-2012-oil-castro-brothers-power/#ixzz2GGfXXbmE

VOXXI: Hugo Chávez successor: Possible scenarios in Dec. 16 elections

Hugo Chavez Successor: Possible Scenarios in Dec. 16 Elections
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
December 12, 2012
Originally published: http://www.voxxi.com/hugo-chavez-successor-dec-16-elections/

After suffering a relapse, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has traveled once again to Cuba to undergo medical treatment for the cancer he’s battled for at least a year. Before his departure, he named Vice-President Nicolas Maduro as his successor.

Unsurprisingly, there has been a flurry of speculation regarding how dire Chávez’s health is and whether he will be able to recover (early reports state that the operation was successful) and continue ruling until the end of his term in 2019 or, in a worst-case scenario, should Venezuela be preparing itself for a post-Chávez era.

The head of state hinted that, should new elections be held in his country, he was confident that Maduro would earn the votes of Venezuelans. If indeed Chávez’s health eventually becomes too frail for him to continue the goals of his administration and his revolution, the million-dollar question will be whether his Bolivarian blueprint for Venezuela can be carried out without him at the helm.

Hugo Chávez successor named ahead of Dec. 16 elections

According to the Venezuelan Constitution, if the head of state cannot complete his six-year term within the first four years, new presidential elections must be call within 30 days. With Maduro now in control of the country while Chávez is in Cuba, it will be interesting to see if he will carry through Chávez’s ultimate legacy of being a steadfast constitutionalist.

In an extreme scenario, if Chávez does not return and elections are called for, then it’s anyone’s guess as to what might happen. Maduro may very well call for elections and run as the candidate for Chávez’s Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV). But does the interim head of state enjoy the same levels of popularity as Chávez among the masses? After Chávez’s latest medical trip to Cuba, the PSUV had an emergency meeting in which its major leaders signed an agreement calling for unity and loyalty.

However, as an analyst put it in Americas Quarterly: “It is likely that that the PSUV will grant Chávez his wish, and if the time comes, vote for Maduro for no other reason than to pay their last respects. But it is less certain whether this loyalty will be automatically extended to Maduro if he assumes office.”

Henrique Capriles emerges as the likely option

While Maduro has had a meteoric rise to power, he certainly is no Chávez and arguably lacks his charisma and popularity. Another question is whether or not the political opposition would be able to effectively organize itself in time for these possible elections and furthermore, who the presidential candidate would be. Henrique Capriles Radonski, who gave Chávez a run for his money in the recent October presidential elections, emerges as the likely option. Chávez defeated Capriles by around 10 points during the election—a bigger difference than was originally predicted, but it still demonstrated that Venezuela’s political opposition had managed to unite around a single candidate and that there is a growing number of dissatisfied voters. Capriles has yet to announce if he would run if new presidential elections are called for, but it is safe to say that pundits, politicians and the Venezuelan population in general may be wondering if Capriles could defeat Maduro.

Opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles talks to supporters and media members as he concedes defeat in the presidential elections at his campaign headquarters in Caracas, Venezuela, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012. Venezuela’s electoral council said late Sunday President Hugo Chávez has won re-election, defeating challenger Henrique Capriles. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)

It is important to highlight that Venezuela will have regional elections this coming December 16. A total of 23 regional governors, 229 members of legislative councils and eight indigenous representatives will be chosen. It will be interesting to see how Chávez’s party does in these elections and what it means for the future of the Bolivarian revolution.

Moreover, Capriles will be rerunning for the governorship of the state of Miranda, and, should he be reelected, this may give him a boost to push for a new attempt at the presidency. Ironically, Elias Jaua, the former Vice President before Maduro, is also running as a PSUV candidate in Miranda against Capriles. The outcome of the governor’s race in Miranda can be used as a foreshadowing as to what could happen in the national elections if they were to be called.

Finally, there is the ever-present question of how the military, the Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivarana (FANB), will react to these new developments. While the armed forces are supposed to be neutral and apolitical according to constitutional mandate, it is no secret that Chávez has populated the military’s leadership with individuals loyal to him. In addition, he has kept his armed forces happy with his cause by spending billions of oil dollars on a variety of military purchases from Russia and China over the past decade. Occasionally the armed forces have declared that they would not accept a head of state that wasn’t Chávez, but what will happen if their former military comrade is physically unable to continue ruling? Another unknown factor will be if the Bolivarian military will be as loyal to Maduro as they have been to Chávez, as well as whether or not they would accept Capriles or any other individual as commander in chief if elections occur and the opposition wins the presidency.

Don’t cry wolf before it shows up

People, one holding an image of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez, gather to pray for him at Simon Bolivar square in Caracas, Venezuela, Tuesday, Dec. 11, 2012.  (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

The commentaries discussing Chávez’s health and the likelihood of a Venezuela without the outspoken head of state are similar to the plethora of analyses that have been written over the past decades regarding Cuba’s Fidel Castro and his health. Ultimately, in Cuba’s case, Castro has managed to outlast and outlive most of his detractors and enemies; now the question becomes if Chávez will follow in his mentor’s footsteps, overcome his health issues and continue his rule of the oil-rich Venezuela.

During his time as head of state, along with some controversial and memorable statements, it would be unfair to say that Chávez’s rule has only been detrimental to the country. Several of his social initiatives have been very beneficial to the lower echelons of Venezuelan society, which is where Chávez’s support originates.

Nevertheless, when people think of the Venezuelan government and the Chávez’s party, they focus more on Chávez than on any other figure. His power has held for more than a decade, but if his health worsens to the point where he can no longer rule, the question becomes if the Venezuelan people will vote for Maduro to lead in Chávez’s place, or if the Venezuelan armed forces will support a possible non-Chávez head of state. The December 16 elections will provide us with a better idea of what is in the mind of the Venezuelan citizenry and other possible outcomes that might occur in the near future.

Read more: http://www.voxxi.com/hugo-chavez-successor-dec-16-elections/#ixzz2F94zFAGf