Geopolitics: January 2022

Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Journal: Latin America and the Caribbean Meet the Post-Soviet World: Can Pro Forma Diplomacy Evolve?

"Latin America and the Caribbean Meet the Post-Soviet World: Can Pro Forma Diplomacy Evolve?"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Research Essay

Journal of International Analytics

Vol. 12, No. 3, 2021

Originally published: https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/389

Abstract

The 33 countries that constitute Latin America and the Caribbean and the 11 countries of the former Soviet Union (not counting the Russian Federation and the three Baltic nations) conform 44 states which are, with a few exceptions, on the periphery of global geopolitical aff airs, with limited international influence or at the mercy of conflicts that have disrupted their internal balance and international image in the past decade. While the topic of how peripheral nations and regions interact with each other has been analyzed in academia, in-depth studies about relations between these specific regions are very limited and scarce. This paper seeks to fi ll in that gap by providing recent examples on issues like trade and high-profile diplomatic visits between Latin American and Caribbean governments with their post-Soviet counterparts. Moreover, I will discuss the issue of the location (or lack thereof) of embassies, a topic not discussed in the consulted literature, as an example of how governments from peripheral states and limited budgets decide where to open an embassy. It is proposed here that the 44 states that make up Latin America, the Caribbean, and the post-Soviet world will remain cordial and friendly strangers for the foreseeable future. A lack of grand-strategy vision, with a few exceptions, is a major hindrance to stronger relations between these states. The most plausible scenario is bloc-to-bloc trade agreements; however, the COVID-19 pandemic and more pressing issues that these countries face mean that treaties with geographically distant states that are not trading partners or potential sources of financial aid are not regarded as priorities.

Sanchez W.A. Latin America and the Caribbean Meet the Post-Soviet World: Can Pro Forma Diplomacy Evolve? Journal of International Analytics. 2021;12(3):154–172. https://doi.org/10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-3-154-172

Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Book chapter: "A Frontier Market in the COVID-19 Era: Kazakhstan’s Economic Diversification in the 2020s"

"A Frontier Market in the COVID-19 Era: Kazakhstan’s Economic Diversification in the 2020s"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Chapter published in:

Jean-François Caron and Hélène Thibault (Eds), Central Asia and the Covid-19 Pandemic, Springer Link, 2022: 139-170

To buy the book please visit: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-16-7586-7

More info on my chapter: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-16-7586-7_7

Abstract

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the government of Kazakhstan was carrying out a strategy of economic diversification in order to decrease the country’s dependence on its profitable energy industry which constitute the bulk of Kazakhstan’s exports. As part of the diversification of its economy and trading partners, Kazakhstan has a long-term objective: become one of the world’s 30 most developed economics by 2050. The Central Asian nation is classified as a frontier market by global indexes, which means that it is viewed as having less developed political and economic structures, which makes them more volatile. However this label can be misleading as it does not properly demonstrate what Kazakhstan has accomplished in recent years in its quest to attract new trade partners and investors. New entities like the Astana International Financial Centre; the government's plans to become a trilingual nation; and recent initiatives to develop industries like agriculture, banking, manufacturing and tourism; demonstrate what good planning can accomplish. How will the pandemic affect Kazakhstan’s plans and objectives? This essay seeks to demonstrate that the country has handled COVID-19 generally well from an economic point of view. While the informal sector and lack of development in the periphery remain problematic issues, Nur-Sultan has achieved much in its three decades of independence as a frontier market, transforming from a Soviet-style to a Western-style economy. Kazakhstan, thus, is an example of how a global pandemic does not necessarily have to cripple the development plans of a frontier market, if said country has clear short-term as well as long-term goals.

Thursday, January 20, 2022

The National Interest: How Will Sanctions Impact Kazakhstan’s Foreign Policy?

"How Will Sanctions Impact Kazakhstan’s Foreign Policy?"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

20 January, 2022

The National Interest

Originally published: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-will-sanctions-impact-kazakhstan%E2%80%99s-foreign-policy-199729

At least for the foreseeable future, Kazakhstan’s multi-vector diplomacy is on life-support.

The protests and violence in early January in Kazakhstan that resulted in at least 225 deaths—civilians and security forces—more than 4,000 injured, some 6,000 arrested, and concluded with a short-lived international intervention under the umbrella of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has called into question the future of Kazakhstan’s relations with the United States and European states. Moreover, the arrests and deaths of Kazakhstani civilians have prompted some experts to demand sanctions against Kazakhstan, including the entourage of First President Nursultan Nazarbayev. However, before sanctions are carried out, geopolitical considerations must be analyzed.

Geopolitical Monitor: US-Georgia Economic Relations: Time for an FTA?

"US-Georgia Economic Relations: Time for an FTA?"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

The Buzz

Geopolitical Monitor

20 January, 2022

Originally published: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/us-georgia-economic-relations-time-for-an-fta/

A late 2021 letter by several members of the United States Congress requests the U.S. Trade Representative, Ambassador Katherine Tie, to increase commerce and investment with Georgia. While more significant trade will not alter the complicated dynamics of the Caucasus, at a bilateral level, strengthening this sector is essential for Washington-Tbilisi relations and will have obvious positive repercussions on the Georgian economy. Signing a Free Trade Agreement between the two countries is a necessary first step for this process to occur.

Friday, January 14, 2022

Shephard Media: Peru sets out naval modernisation plans for 2022

"Peru sets out naval modernisation plans for 2022"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Shephard Media

14 January, 2022

Originally published: https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/naval-warfare/peru-sets-out-naval-modernisation-plans-for-2022/

Peru continues to upgrade its naval capabilities despite its limited budget.

The Peruvian Navy will focus on developing domestically manufactured vessels and upgrading several of its units throughout 2022. However, the overall defence budget for the year ($1.83 billion) is similar to 2021 ($1.82 billion), leaving little room for the acquisition of new equipment from international suppliers.

Shephard Media: FAMAE sets sights on 122mm MLRS

"FAMAE sets sights on 122mm MLRS"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Shephard Media

11 January, 2022

Originally published: https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/landwarfareintl/famae-sets-sights-on-122mm-mlrs/

Chilean manufacturer FAMAE has already developed a 70mm MLRS but it is working towards completing a full prototype of a 122mm system this year.

Chilean state-run defence company Fábricas y Maestranzas del Ejército (FAMAE) is developing a 122mm MLRS with a range of up to 40km in a project called Divison General René Echeverría.

Thursday, January 13, 2022

The National Interest: Water Politics Will Drive Kazakhstan’s Relations With China

"Water Politics Will Drive Kazakhstan’s Relations With China"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

The National Interest

13 January, 2022

Originally published: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/water-politics-will-drive-kazakhstan%E2%80%99s-relations-china-199473

Kazakhstan and China must reach mutually beneficial agreements on water issues.

The recent unrest in Kazakhstan quickly led to an intervention by the Collective Security Treaty Organization and triggered the appointment of a new prime minister. While events in Kazakhstan will continue to impact regional geopolitics, some issues will remain generally unaffected, though it makes them no less important to the country’s future. One such issue is water, a sensitive topic throughout central Asia that is a major factor in Kazakhstan’s relations with China.

Thursday, January 6, 2022

Geopolitical Monitor: Assessing a Possible Moldova-Romania Unification

"Assessing a Possible Moldova-Romania Unification"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Situation Reports

Geopolitical Monitor

6 January, 2021

Originally published: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/assessing-a-possible-moldova-romania-unification/

Moldovan President Maia Sandu was asked during an interview in the Moldovan TV program In PROfunzime about a potential unification between Moldova and neighboring Romania. Unification is an idea that has been discussed since Moldova obtained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991; it has been utilized to advance various political agendas in Chisinau, Bucharest, as well as Moscow, and even Tiraspol, the de facto capital of Moldova’s separatist region, Transnistria. Exactly how likely unification is to occur in the foreseeable future is debatable, but the very idea provokes strong feelings and emotions, and also serves different objectives.

Two or more countries unifying into a single entity is not an event that often occurs nowadays – separatism is more common – hence even a theoretical scenario in which Moldova and Romania unify deserves a proper discussion, considering local and regional factors.