Interview: Ponto central da visita de Dilma aos EUA é melhoria da relação com Obama, diz analista

"Ponto central da visita de Dilma aos EUA é melhoria da relação com Obama, diz analista"

Interview by: Lamia Oulalou

W. Alejandro Sanchez
Opera MundiJune 27, 2015
Originally published: http://operamundi.uol.com.br/conteudo/entrevistas/40836/ponto+central+da+visita+de+dilma+aos+eua+e+melhoria+da+relacao+com+obama+diz+analista.shtml

Segundo o especialista em geopolítica Alejandro Sanchez Nieto, brasileira precisa de uma "vitória internacional" e processo para fim de visto poderia ser uma delas

Quase dois anos depois de cancelar uma viagem aos Estados Unidos após as revelações de Edward Snowden de que havia sido espionada pelo governo americano, a presidente Dilma Rousseff desembarca neste sábado (27/06) no país. A visita é apresentada por Brasília como a mais importante viagem da presidente em seu segundo mandato, com o objetivo de restaurar a confiança entre as duas nações e buscar investimentos para estimular a economia brasileira em recessão.

“Dilma Rousseff precisa de uma agenda positiva”, afirma Alejandro Sanchez Nieto (@w_alex_sanchez), pesquisador do Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA). Para ele, “o ponto central será a qualidade da relação pessoal entre os presidentes Obama e Dilma, ver se eles conseguem consertá-la depois da briga deflagrada pelas revelações sobre espionagem.”

Especialista de geopolítica, assuntos militares e de cybersegurança nas Américas, ele considera que a baixa popularidade da presidente deveria incentivá-la a tentar deixar para trás o episódio da espionagem. “O elemento mais concreto e que seria mais bem visto pelos brasileiros seria avançar no programa de isenção de visto”, avalia o analista. Segundo ele, EUA poderiam aproveitar a reunião para conseguir uma posição mais crítica do governo brasileiro em relação a Venezuela, “mas não será feito abertamente”. 

Opera Mundi: Passados dois anos da visita cancelada devido ao escândalo de espionagem a presidente Dilma Rousseff vai finalmente a Washington. O que o governo dos Estados Unidos está esperando concretamente desta visita?

Alejandro Sanchez Nieto: Essa é uma pergunta engraçada, porque aqui em Washington há muitas especulações sobre este próximo encontro. Nas últimas duas semanas, houve nada menos de três conferências organizadas por grandes centros de pesquisa dedicadas ao Brasil. E, em cada uma, tinha oradores muito importantes como Roberta Jacobson, secretária adjunto para o Hemisfério Ocidental no Departamento de Estado, ou Kenneth Hyatt, o vice-subsecretário de Comércio Internacional do Departamento de Comércio. Infelizmente, se estas pessoas tinham uma ideia clara da agenda da reunião, não deixaram transparecer nada de específico. Ouvi falar de muitos temas: o comércio, um acordo sobre a ciência da educação, as alterações climáticas e até as operações de manutenção da paz da ONU (por conta do envolvimento do Brasil na Minustah no Haiti).

Acredito que se algo concreto sair do encontro será provavelmente, um acordo genérico sobre a cooperação com foco em algum tema que não levante nenhuma controversa, como a educação ou a ciência. Acho também que Dilma provavelmente consideraria uma vitória se ela pudesse voltar para casa com um calendário claro para a entrada do Brasil no Programa Piloto Global Entry, que é o primeiro passo para um programa de isenção de vistos. Poderia haver algumas observações positivas de parte de Washington, apoiando o Brasil como ator importante nas questões globais, mas os EUA ainda não vão respaldar uma mudança no Conselho de Segurança da ONU.

O ponto central será a qualidade da relação pessoal entre os presidentes Obama e Dilma, ver se eles conseguem consertá-la depois da briga deflagrada pelas revelações sobre espionagem. Além disso, fico curioso de saber, já que Obama tem ainda um ano e meio de mandato pela frente, se ele prevê uma "turnê de despedida" da América Latina no próximo ano, e, no caso, se ele iria para o Brasil. Isso seria uma iniciativa muito importante, tanto do ponto de vista do marketing e da diplomacia para que seu sucessor possa continuar restaurando os laços entre os dois países.

OM: O senhor é um especialista de segurança. Acha que o tema da defesa e da segurança será abordado durante a reunião?

ASN: Acho que o comercio de armas não será o foco da reunião Dilma-Obama, mas seria interessante que fosse mencionado pelo menos uma vez durante as reuniões das equipes. De fato, já existe uma parceria entre a brasileira Embraer e a empresa norte-americana Sierra Nevada Corp. Foi neste contexto que os EUA compraram 20 aviões.

Um desenvolvimento interessante aconteceu há algumas semanas. A Agência de Cooperação em Segurança, que supervisiona, dentro do Departamento de Defesa dos EUA, as vendas de armas, publicou um comunicado de imprensa no início de junho que aprova a venda de seis aeronaves Super Tucano para o Líbano – um negócio de US$ 462 milhões. O comunicado dizia: "A proposta de venda deste equipamento não vai alterar o equilíbrio militar básico na região”. Eu vejo isso como um grande desenvolvimento, já que mostra que os EUA estão vendendo armas brasileiras para alguns de seus aliados.

OM: O senhor acha que a questão da espionagem já não pesa mais na relação? Mesmo com as últimas revelações do Wikileaks, nesta semana, sobre os grampos ao governo francês?

ASN: Eu suponho que o governo brasileiro ainda veja Washington com desconfiança, mas este sentimento pode ser rastreado até 1964. No entanto, acho que o governo brasileiro, e especialmente Dilma, percebeu que Brasil precisa ultrapassar este receio, já que o país pode aproveitar bastante de relações mais estreitas com Washington. Embora o principal parceiro comercial do Brasil desde 2009 tenha sido a China, obviamente, nenhum país pode dar ao luxo de perder um parceiro comercial como os EUA.

Acho que a desconfiança pessoal vai continuar, mas Dilma tem problemas internos suficientes, ela precisa de uma agenda positiva.

OM: Como qualificaria a qualidade das relações entre EUA e Brasil hoje?

ASN: Eu diria cordial e aberta do ponto de vista dos negócios, mas não amistosa. Mas, também, queria ressaltar que sempre foi assim. Washington e Brasília têm sido historicamente concorrentes na influência na América Latina e no Caribe. Além disso, quem, neste governo, pode esquecer o papel de Washington no golpe de 1964, quando os EUA enviaram uma frota liderada pelo USS Forrestal? Tenho certeza de que Dilma, com sua historia pessoal durante a ditadura, lembra bem disso.

No entanto, acho que, apesar desta competição por influência, os dois lados têm conseguido construir uma relação cordial, com uma interação social e comercial forte. Como se diz aqui, “live and let live”, ou seja, "viva e deixe viver". O comércio entre os dois países é enorme, em torno de US$ 107 bilhões em 2012. E o se o escândalo da NSA atrapalhou a relação entre os governos, isso não teve impacto sobre as populações. Muitos norte-americanos foram para o Brasil durante a Copa do Mundo e muitos mais irão para o Rio de Janeiro assistir os Jogos Olímpicos. Da mesma forma, em 2015, o Brasil vai enviar cerca de 2,3 milhões de visitantes para os EUA.  As populações de ambos os países não veem um ao outro como uma ameaça, daí seus respectivos governos usam isso como uma base para manter boas relações.

OM: A baixa popularidade da presidente Dilma terá um impacto sobre o encontro com o Barack Obama?

ASN: Dilma precisa de uma "vitória internacional" para tentar melhorar a própria imagem dentro do país. A população brasileira pouco se importaria de saber que Dilma e Obama vão conversar sobre a situação na Venezuela ou Cuba. O que Dilma precisa é voltar com algo que beneficie diretamente aos cidadãos, como o programa de isenção de visto.

OM: Conseguir reatar boas relações com Brasil é uma prioridade para Washington?

ASN: Seria bom, mas não uma prioridade. Obama nunca teve uma “grande estratégia” para América Latina e o Caribe. A visita, deste ponto de vista, não é o sinal de um plano muito pensado pela Casa Branca, é mais um tipo de “controle de danos”. Além disso, Obama tem um ano e alguns meses antes de deixar a Presidência, e tem muitas questões que as quais ele está tentando lidar para deixar um legado completo, tanto no que diz respeito à política interna e como fora do país. Ao nível internacional, Ucrânia, Rússia, a ameaça do Estado Islâmico e o acordo nuclear com Irã são muito mais importantes do que o Brasil. Até porque, para ser franco, não há nenhum problema com o Brasil que não seja a desconfiança provocada pelo escândalo NSA.

Ao nível das Américas, as negociações sobre Cuba e o tema da reforma imigratória são também mais prioritárias. Certamente Obama gostaria de deixar o cargo com boas relações com a maioria dos países da América Latina e do Caribe. Mas isso já aconteceu durante a Cúpula das Américas no Panamá em abril passado, e, antes disso, na Jamaica quando ele se reuniu com os líderes da Caricom. Em ambas as reuniões, ele foi muito bem recebido por seus colegas. Se agora Obama conseguisse melhorar as relações com o Brasil, isso ficaria como uma cereja no bolo.

OM: As revelações da operação Lava Jato acabaram enfraquecendo não só a Petrobras, mas também as grandes construtoras brasileiras. O senhor acha que os EUA querem aproveitar a oportunidade para ampliar a presença de suas empresas no setor petroleiro e da construção?

ASN: Eu não sou um especialista em petróleo, então não posso responder de maneira especifica. Certamente, Washington, como qualquer outro governo, vai se concentrar em seus interesses nacionais e apoiar as suas empresas. Se Obama e seus conselheiros tiverem a oportunidade de empurrar a idéia de que o Brasil deve buscar investimentos estrangeiros no setor de petróleo durante o encontro com Dilma e sua equipe, eles vão fazê-lo. Como eu mencionei, a China é o principal parceiro comercial do Brasil. Por isso, se os EUA podem conseguir ter uma maior presença nos campos de petróleo do Brasil, seria uma boa noticia para eles. Mas duvido que aconteça algo de concreto deste ponto de vista durante esta visita.

OM: Como Washington está vendo o desempenho diplomático e comercial cada vez mais intenso da China no Brasil e de maneira geral na América Latina?

ASN: É claro que Washington sempre acompanha a situação no que se refere à crescente influência de poderes fora das Américas, sejam eles China, Rússia ou Irã. Todos os três países têm vários níveis de relações com o Brasil. Por isso, sem dúvida, Washington está olhando o investimento chinês e outras iniciativas na região, tentando ampliar a própria influência. Por isso, além das iniciativas diplomáticas, tais como a conferência sobre a segurança energética organizada pelo Departamento de Estado, Washington quer intensificar os laços comerciais na região. Deste ponto de vista, finalizar o acordo de TPP seria uma maneira de amarrar firmemente os EUA com aliados como Chile, México e Peru. 

OM: Qual será o impacto da retomada das relações entre Washington e Cuba sobre a visita da presidente Dilma?

ASN: O Brasil tem pedido a reintegração de Cuba no sistema interamericano. Por isso, vê de maneira muito positiva o fato de Obama reatar as relações com Cuba, remover a ilha da lista de Estados que patrocinam o terrorismo do Departamento de Estado, e a próxima reabertura de embaixadas. Se os EUA tivessem vetado (mais uma vez) a participação cubana na Cúpula, não sei se as relações entre os países teriam ficado ainda piores. Teria sido, de qualquer maneira, mais um assunto para discutir, em vez de promover a cooperação.

Gostaria de acrescentar, porém, que, em nível diplomático, estou certo de que Brasília aprova que Cuba esteja ficando cada vez mais perto de voltar a estabelecer relações plenas com Washington.

A possibilidade de que os EUA e Cuba restaurem, além dos laços diplomáticos, as relações comerciais – não dá para saber quando o embrago será totalmente levantado – também representa um desafio para Brasília. Neste cenário hipotético, as empresas dos EUA poderiam investir e ter negócios em Cuba, o que as tornaria concorrentes aos projetos de outras empresas, entre as quais as brasileiras. O Brasil tem investido pesadamente no projeto do porto de Mariel em Cuba, com a criação de uma "zona especial de desenvolvimento" para as indústrias. Então acho que Brasil comemora a retomada das relações, mas o governo deve se perguntar quando esta melhoria vai começar a afetar os investimentos brasileiros na ilha.

OM: O governo dos Estados Unidos vai aproveitar o encontro para pedir uma política mais dura em relação à Venezuela?

ASN: É claro que Washington gostaria que Brasília fosse mais crítico do governo de Nicolas Maduro. Deste jeito, poderiam dizer que os EUA  não são os únicos e que até uma potência latino-americana como Brasil é crítica da Venezuela. Não acho, porém, que isso vai acontecer no curto prazo. O Brasil tem interesses econômicos importantes na Venezuela, e, sobretudo, tenta atuar como mediador para parar a violência em curso lá. Posso imaginar que existe certa frustração em relação a este papel, que foi retratada pela visita dos senadores que queriam ver os líderes da oposição presos, e foram impedidos de fazê-lo.

OM: Esta visita e seus desdobramentos provocaram debates intensos no Brasil sobre o que realmente aconteceu. O Itamaraty chegou a pedir explicações para o governo venezuelano sobre o tratamento dado aos senadores. Este episódio foi interpretado como uma mudança de política do Brasil? O sinal do que o senhor qualificou de “frustração”?

ASN: Acho que as autoridades aqui interpretaram isso mais como um incidente isolado do que uma mudança significativa. Aliás, esta história quase não apareceu aqui na mídia, teve apenas uma matéria de agência que foi reproduzida. Depois disso, não ouvi nenhum porta-voz do governo americano falar do tema. Se você ler os últimos briefings do Departamento de Estado que mencionam que os opositores venezuelanos encerraram a greve de fome e as eleições de dezembro, eles nem mencionam os senadores brasileiros. Para resumir, não vejo Washington pressionar abertamente Brasília sobre isso. Talvez Venezuela, como Cuba, seja discutido quando Obama e Dilma se encontrarem, mas será uma conversa a portas fechadas.

Presentation: Colombia - Drones & Security

"Los Drones y la Seguridad en Latinoamerica"
Presentacion via Skype
Conferencia en la Escuela de Postgrados de la Policia - Policia Nacional de Colombia
Bogota, Colombia
Junio 24, 2015

Peru This Week: US: Peru’s Shining Path members are narcotics traffickers

"US: Peru's Shining Path members are narcotics traffickers"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Opinion
Peru This Week
June 19, 2015
Originally published: http://www.peruthisweek.com/blogs-us-perus-shining-path-are-narcotics-traffickers-106618

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has labeled the Peruvian insurgent movement as a “drug trafficking organization.” This decision will come as little surprise to the Peruvian government, security forces, or the Andean nation’s population in general, as Shining Path is widely known to have morphed into a narco-terrorist organization that profits from drug trafficking, specifically cocaine, in the Peruvian highlands. Hence, while the U.S. government’s decision is self-explanatory and any person can rationally ask what took Washington so long to decide this. Nevertheless, it is important, as it will further limit Shining Path’s options by curtailing its U.S.-based assets. Moreover, this could open a new era of Washington-Lima security cooperation, which the Ollanta Humala government would probably welcome.

While discussing the history of Shining Path is beyond the scope of this commentary (a more in-depth look is taken here), a brief assessment is necessary. Nowadays, the organization is a shadow of what it was at the height of its power in the late 1980s. It currently has a few hundred fighters, many of whom are child soldiers. Moreover, Shining Path’s area of operations is limited to two major regions in the Peruvian highlands, the Huallaga Valley and the Valley of the Apurimac, Ene and Mantaro Rivers (VRAEM). But while the movement may not pose a threat to Lima in the sense that it is not capable of violently overthrowing the government, it remains a national security threat.

Over the past years, Shining Path fighters have remained a consistent threat to the Peruvian security forces and the population of the highlands and Andes. This situation is best exemplified by attacks carried out by the narco-insurgents. In 2009 Shining Path guerrillas successfully shot down a security helicopter. More recently, the insurgents attacked Peruvian Army bases four times in the VRAEMduring a period of five days in May 2013. In other words, even though they are on the run, the Peruvian narco-insurgents do not shy away from engaging the country’s security forces. Another concern is the appearance of Shining Path flags in isolated towns, which has justifiably raised alarms among the local population.

This does not mean that the Peruvian security forces have not carried out successful operations against Shining Path in recent years. Case in point, the narco-insurgent movement’s leadership has been decimated, as its senior leadership is either under arrest or eliminated. In 2012, the Humala government achieved a major blow thanks to the arrest of Florindo Eleuterio Flores Hala, AKAArtemio, the last remaining Shining Path leader that remained free (the group’s founder and ideological leader, Abimael Guzman, was arrested in 1992). In recent months there have been the arrests of other insurgents, including the January 2015 detention of Teofilo Guerra Puentes, AKAJulinho, accused of killing at least fifteen police officers. Moreover, the Peruvian armed forces are upgrading their equipment in order to better patrol the VRAEM, as the country’s Russian-made helicopter fleet is getting new aircraft, while new rifles have also been purchased.

Nevertheless, the problem that Shining Path poses is not so much its threat to the Peruvian government per se, but rather its growing involvement in drug trafficking, a transnational problem. According to the United Nations and the U.S. State Department, Peru is now the world’s largest producer of cocaine, surpassing even Colombia. Nevertheless, it is important to note that Peruvian cocaine is not aimed at reaching the U.S. market but rather Europe. Case in point, in 2014, a shipment of coal was searched in the Peruvian port of Trujillo before it left for the Netherlands; hidden within the coal were over six tons of cocaine. Moreover, there is a narco-air bridge, which Peruvian and Bolivian drug traffickers use to fly cocaine from improvised airfields in the Peruvian highlands to Bolivia; from there it is smuggled to Brazil and then to Europe.

Given Peru’s evolving internal security situation and Shining Path’s morphing role into a drug trafficking entity, it is a positive development that Washington has decided to label the insurgent movement as a narco-entity. The question then becomes how, if at all, will this affect the current situation.

The one specific action carried out by the Treasury Department’s press release is that “all assets … based in the United States or that are in the control of U.S. persons are frozen, and U.S. persons are generally prohibited from engaging in transactions with them.” The individuals in question are the aforementioned Artemio, already behind bars, and two Shining Path leaders who are still free: Victor Quispe Palomino and his brother Jorge Quispe Palomino. The Treasury Department will also apply sanctions pursuant to the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act (Kingpin Act), but it is unclear how effective they will be.

It will be interesting to see whether this initiative will increase U.S.-Peruvian cooperation in the near future. The two countries, and their respective security and intelligence forces, have enjoyed decades of good relations, so increased security-cooperation would not be surprising.

As a caveat to this analysis, it is necessary to stress that, while Shining Path is now labeled by the U.S. as a drug-trafficking organization, it is not the preeminent narco-organization in Peru. Unlike Colombia or Mexico, Peruvian drug entities are not big, cartel-like entities but rather small (often family-run) enterprises. Hence, while Shining Path is close to being defeated, the real problem of drug trafficking in Peru persists.

Journal: Reinvigorating Peru’s role in Antarctic geopolitics

"Reinvigorating Peru's Role in Antarctic Geopolitics"
W. Alejandro Sanchez and Otto Raul Tielemans Jr.
The Polar Journal
Volume 5, Issue 1 2015
P. 101-112
June 2015
Link: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2154896X.2015.1030164
(please contact me if you'd like a PDF copy)


Peru has lagged in expanding its miniscule operations in the Antarctic. With neighbours such as Russia and China consistently appropriating greater resources towards its Antarctic bases, Peru can only lay claim to a seasonally operating base and naval vessel capable of annual expeditions to the frozen continent. The lack of investment in the region is crippling to the Andean nation, diminishing its presence and potential influence in the region. With the Antarctic Treaty of 1959 potentially up for revision in 2048, it is in Peru’s national interest to cement, promote and protect its fragile presence in Antarctica. As such, this essay will not only discuss Peru’s historical interactions with the Antarctic dating back to the 1970s, but it will also seek to highlight recent expeditions, including a visit by President Humala to Antarctica in 2013. It is the opinion of the authors that Peruvian initiatives in the Antarctic have been minimalist and insufficient to cement its role as relevant player in Antarctic geopolitics. Furthermore, this essay provides recommendations regarding what initiatives Lima can execute in the near future to not only increase its presence but also showcase it to the world. These suggestions include obtaining a second vessel, establishing a permanent base and promoting Peruvian scientific research regarding the Antarctic to the international academic community and even low-cost initiatives such as utilising the Internet to promote Peru’s Antarctic history and contributions to the protection of this important region.

Journal - Book Review: Russia, the Near Abroad, and the West: Lessons from the Moldova-Transdniestria Conflict,

Russia, The Near Abroad and the Moldova-Transdniestria Conflict - By William H. Hill
Book Review by W. Alejandro Sanchez
Journal of Slavic Military Studies
Volume 28, Issue 2. 2015
P. 439-441

Available: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13518046.2015.1030285

Looking Ahead: Latin America and the Caribbean shaping the future of the ATT

"Latin America and the Caribbean shaping the future of the ATT"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Looking Ahead-blog
Forum on the Arms Trade
June 8, 2015
Originally published: http://www.forumarmstrade.org/looking-ahead-blog/latin-american-and-the-caribbean-shaping-the-future-of-the-att


On August 24-27, Mexico will host the First Conference of the State Parties (CSP) to the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT). This is an important high-profile meeting aimed at establishing the permanent headquarters and a secretariat for the ATT. It is noteworthy that a Latin American nation will host the event. While not major weapons expenders a la the United States or Russia, in recent years Latin American and Caribbean nations have earmarked significant portions of their defense budgets for new acquisitions. Hence, it is important that these two regions are taking a pro-active stance on the future of the global arms trade by helping to shape the ATT’s future.

Just this past February, Trinidad and Tobago hosted the First Preparatory Meeting Towards The First Conference of States Parties to the Arms Trade Treaty. According to a press release by Mexico’s Secretariat of Foreign Affairs, the meeting in Port of Spain addressed issues like “the format, mandate and configuration of the future Secretariat,” as well as financial regulations.  Security expert Rachel Stohl from the Stimson Center noted, however, that the “only matter of substance agreed to … was that the first annual report on authorized arms exports and imports will cover calendar year 2015 with a submission deadline of May 31, 2016.” More meetings have since occurred and others are scheduled with the goal of seeing the August meeting bring momentum to the process.

For the time being, Mexico City has praised itself for having been chosen to host the CSP. In December, Mexican Ambassador Jorge Lomónaco declared that “[Mexico’s election] is, without a doubt, an example of trust and a form of recognizing our country as an important player of the international community; [we are] reliable [and] neutral.” Such self-praise is understandable, and it will hopefully be validated in a few months.

Apart from hosting major meetings, the Caribbean states are a major pillar of the ATT, Europe’s support notwithstanding. Several countries in that region have ratified it, like Dominica, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago. Meanwhile, Latin American states that have also ratified it include Argentina, El Salvador, Panama, Paraguay, and the CSP’s hosting nation, Mexico. In fact, Costa Rica, known for being a military-less nation in a violence-prone Central America, has not only ratified the ATT but was one of its original sponsors. Meanwhile, Brazil, with its strong military industry (i.e. EMBRAER), and other significant spenders like Chile, Colombia and Peru have only signed the treaty.

At this point, it is necessary to stress that Latin America is by no means undergoing a disarmament process. In recent years, we have seen a variety of major weapons sales by countries that have ratified or signed the ATT. For example, in 2013 Brazil signed a multi-billion deal for Swedish Gripen warplanes. Meanwhile, Peru has purchased FN Scar rifles and Gatling M-134D machine guns for its armed forces to crack down on narco-insurgency in the Peruvian Andes. As for Mexico, the U.S. has authorized the sale of Blackhawk helicopters to its southern partner. In addition, the region’s military industries remain vibrant and are looking to export their domestically made weapons. The prime example is Brazil, as it sold unarmed drones to an unnamed African nation in 2014.

Hence, it will be interesting to hear more detailed information about the concerns, priorities, and interests of Latin American states when they present at the CSP, as they will essentially be supporting an ATT regime, while also trying not to affect weapons sales sought by Latin American governments. Although support for the ATT is strong among these governments, national security threats, particularly drug trafficking and narco-insurgency, remain priorities for these regions and will continue to influence future arms procurement strategies.

The selection of Trinidad and Tobago as well as Mexico to host conferences that determine the future for this vital piece of global legislation is a big honor that stresses the nations’ support for the ATT’s success. Certainly, there are many challenges that the ATT must address before it becomes a relevant regime that regulates the arms trade. Hence, it is important that the ATT enjoys the support of violence-prone regions like Latin America and the Caribbean. Hopefully this momentum will translate into positive news out of Mexico City.


Alejandro Sanchez is Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs.

Presentation: " A Brief Overview of U.S.-Western Hemisphere Relations"

" A Brief Overview of U.S.-Western Hemisphere Relations"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Senior Research Fellow, Council on Hemispheric Affairs

Miami University (Ohio)
June 4, 2015

Blouin: World: Brazil eyes open seas with new carrier

"Brazil eyes open seas with new carrier"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin Beat: World
June 4, 2015
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2015/06/04/brazil-eyes-open-seas-with-new-carrier/

Without a doubt, a prime example of obscure Latin American military hardware has to be the Sao Paulo (A-12), Brazil’s carrier. The vessel originally served in the French Navy under the name Foch from 1960 until 2000, when it was acquired by the Brazilians. The Clemencau-type carrier can hold “up to 37 fixed-wing aircraft” in addition to helicopters.

That’s correct: Brazil has a carrier in its navy, but the vessel appears to have spent more time in a dock being repaired than in the open seas flying the Brazilian flag. However, luck may be finally changing for the aging vessel. The Brazilian Navy is renovating the carrier in order to extend its operational life – a measure spurred in large part by the Texas-based company, Zentech.

In early May, Zentech was contracted to aid in the carrier’s repair, including “the creation of 3D models to accurately map the results of the vessel’s hull gauging for further detailed analytical work, and ultimately providing recommendations regarding steel replacement.” According toZentech’s website, it has signed a five-year maintenance support program with Brazil. Another company contracted to repair the carrier is the French shipbuilding company DCNS, which was hired a couple of years ago to inspect the carrier’s forward catapult.

The Brazilian Navy is focused on maintaining the carrier as its flagship, and its current goal is to expand the Sao Paulo’s operational life until the mid-2020s, when a new carrier will be acquired. In recent years, there have been numerous reports about Brazil’s next carrier (the third in the country’s history), many of which hint that Brasilia may obtain a carrier from the aforementionedDCNS, dubbed Project PA2. This would be a logical decision as the Brazilian Navy has developed a close relationship with France, best exemplified by the French assisting in the construction of Brazil’s nuclear-powered submarine.

That said, the remaining question is evident — what does Brazil needs a carrier for? The usual argument by Brazilian defense officials is that the country’s navy needs a strong fleet (led by a carrier and/or a nuclear-powered submarine) in order to protect the country’s maritime resources, particularly its off-shore oil fields. But the problem with this argument is that it is difficult to imagine any Latin American country posing a plausible national security threat to Brazil in the immediate future.

Another possibility is that once the Sao Paulo is operational again, it may be deployed to participate in multinational operations overseas. This would not only add pedigree to the Brazilian Navy but also put the carrier to good use.

This is not a far-fetched scenario as, at the time of this writing, the Spanish-based defense news agency Infodefensa.com has reported that the Chilean Navy could send a warship to the Horn of Africa to help the European Union Naval Force’s Operation Atalanta. Its objective is to crack down on piracy off the coast of Somalia. The author of this analysis has not been able to find other sources that confirm this rumor; nevertheless, the idea that a Latin American warship could operate off the African coast is an intriguing scenario.

When the Sao Paulo is up and running, the Brazilian Navy will need a clear plan of how it is going to be utilized for the decade or so that will remain of its operational life. Here, deploying the vessel on multinational operations to combat transnational crimes is a valid option that merits further discussion. But for now, we will have to wait and see how the Brazilian Navy, along with companies like France’s DCNS and the recently hired Zentech, advance in repairing the Sao Paulo for its final tour of duty.

Blouin World: Latin America enters era of civilian drones

"Latin America enters era of civilian drones"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin News: WorldJune 2, 2015
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2015/06/02/latin-america-enters-era-of-civilian-drones/

In the past few months, there has been a surge of drone related incidents. In January, for example, an individual landed a drone on the lawn of the White House. Similar incidents cropped up in Europe when drones flew close to nuclear plants in Belgium and France. As for Latin America, the region is actively using drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), for civilian purposes – for example, within the sphere of journalism – and to obtain more data.

For example, in January 2014, La Prensa Grafica, one of El Salvador’s leading dailies, reported that it had acquired a drone, adding to the number of regional publications resorting to “drone journalism.” In May 2013, La Prensa Peru flew a UAV over a posh neighborhood in downtown Lima in order to give a bird’s eye-view of renovations to the renowned Larco Avenue. Months later, in December, the Peruvian daily El Comercio launched its drone, reportedly a DJI Phantom, to film a fire that was taking place in downtown Lima. Since the fire occurred between several buildings, it was too dangerous for a helicopter to fly low enough to film. Hence, the quadcopter was deployed. Similarly, the Brazilian daily Folha do Sao Paulo utilized a drone to record major protests in Sao Paulo in 2013.

The rising interest in drone use for civilian purposes prompted the Iberoamerican University in Mexico and other high-profile research centers to organize a day-long symposium on the future of journalism in October 2014 – one of the panels was aptly entitled “Hackers, drones and journalism.” It is encouraging that the Latin American media outlets are not blindly using drones, but rather discussing when and how UAVs should be utilized. However, it is equally important to observe how regional governments will monitor, and if necessary limit, the use of UAVs over their aerial territories.

So far, only a few countries in the region are pushing for limits to drone usage — though one assumes that this number will increase in the near future. Already this year, Chile’s Directorate General of Civilian Aeronautics has drafted a proposal outlining how civilian drones should be utilized. According to the Chilean media, one of the proposed requirements notes that the operator must receive a certificate of instruction. Additionally, the UAVs cannot weigh more than six kilograms or fly farther than 500 meters from the operator. The proposal, known as DAN 151, would also prohibit drones from flying within two kilometers of airports.

Another country that has drafted legislation is Argentina. In February, the National Administration of Civilian Aviation (ANAC) published a proposal to regulate civilian drone usage. Among its limitations, the ANAC prohibits drones from flying within 200 meters of residential areas and highways, as well as within one kilometer of cities and towns. Finally, it is also worth mentioning that in recent months, Costa Rica and Mexico have drafted regulations on the use of civilian drones as well.

So the era of the civilian drone has begun in Latin America, best exemplified by the boom of drone-journalism, but with it comes the responsibility of regulating this new trend.  So far, Latin America has not experienced any drone-related incidents like those in in the United States or Europe — proper legislation is critically important to keep that streak going.

Blouin World: Hitting “reset”: Brazil’s Rousseff to visit Washington in June

"Hitting 'reset:' Brazil's Rousseff to visit Washington in June"

W. Alejandro Sanchez

Blouin Beat: World

May 6, 2015

Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2015/05/06/hitting-reset-brazils-rousseff-to-visit-washington-in-june/

On June 30, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff will visit Washington D.C. to meet with President Barack Obama, a highly anticipated meeting given the tensions between the two governments, and leaders themselves, over the past two years.

Historically speaking, relations between the U.S. and Brazil have never been strong. While an in-depth discussion on the history of Washington-Brasilia relations is outside the scope of this analysis, it suffices to say that both nations have strived to be regional leaders, with the U.S. obviously enjoying the upper hand. For example, during the 1964 coup in Brazil (which installed a military regime that ruled until 1985), the U.S. sent a carrier group, headed by the USS Forrestal, to monitor the situation and intervene in favor of the coup-plotters if necessary.

Relations took a turn for the worst in 2013, when NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden revealed that the intelligence agency he worked for had spied on foreign leaders and entities. U.S. espionage operations on Iran or North Korea would hardly be shocking news, but Snowden revealed that the NSA had spied on U.S.-friendly leaders, including Rousseff. According to reports, the Brazilian head of state’s phone calls were monitored, “as well as Brazilian embassiesand … the state oil corporation, Petrobras.” This prompted severe tensions between Brasilia and Washington, resulting in Rousseff canceling a trip to Washington in October 2013. She also heavily critiqued U.S. intelligence operations during a speech at the United Nations in September of the same year.

However, bilateral relations may finally be set to improve. Rousseff was elected this past October 2014 for a second presidential term, coinciding with Obama’s remaining year and a half in office. Already, there have been several positive diplomatic initiatives such as Vice President Joe Biden’s presence at Rouseff’s inauguration in January. Moreover, the two heads of state met at the Summit of the Americas, which was held in Panama this April. The Summit is generally regarded as a major victory for Obama, as he was received well by his fellow hemispheric leaders and even met with Cuban President Raúl Castro in a historic face-to-face. The U.S. president also met with Rousseff, which has been interpreted as a strong step toward improving relations. Obama praised Brazil by declaring that “[it] is obviously not only one of the most important countries in the hemisphere, but is a global leader on a whole range of issues.”

Hence, Rousseff’s upcoming visit to Washington is important, as it will help maintain this diplomatic momentum. Nevertheless, the Brazilian leader probably does not expect to go back to Brasilia empty handed. She has declared her interest in bilateral cooperation in areas like “alternative energies, science, technology, and education.” Moreover, Brazil’s objective is to continue making headway in the U.S. weapons market following the purchase by the U.S. Air Force of some 20 Super Tucano military aircraft, produced by the Brazilian company EMBRAER.

Finally, there is the question of whether the trip will commence negotiations toward a visa-waiver regime. This option has been on the table for some time, but an agreement has not been reached. According to data from the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, over 2.2 million Brazilian citizens entered the U.S. in 2014. This makes Brazil the country with the fifth most travelers coming to the U.S. in that year, behind only Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and Japan.

In other words, Brazilians want to continue coming to the U.S. — though how well the Brazilian middle class will be able to maintain its purchasing power in view of the country’s economic problems is another story.

The Brazilian head of state’s trip comes after a series of major (generally peaceful) protests throughout Brazil. Some of the most outspoken protesters demanded the president’s impeachment. Given these domestic woes — not to mention the recent Petrobras scandal and Rousseff’s alarmingly low popularity — she could benefit greatly from not only a diplomatically successful trip to Washington, but also a trade or tourism-related agreement that will broadly benefit her citizenry. It’s in Rousseff’s best interests to deliver something positive when she returns from Washington.

Blouin Beat: Mexico buoyed by U.S. weapon sales

"Mexico buoyed by U.S. weapon sales"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin Beat: World
April 13, 2015
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2015/04/13/mexico-buoyed-by-u-s-weapon-sales/

Since the internal war in Mexico began almost a decade ago, pinning the Mexican government and its security agencies against the country’s numerous drug cartels, there have been several incidents that make analysts wonder whether the situation is improving — or if things are getting worse.

For example, the February 2014 arrest of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, the legendary leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, is an ideal example of Mexican forces (with U.S. intelligence support) successfully cutting off the head of one of the country’s most dreaded and omnipotent cartels. However, if Guzman’s arrest brought about local (and international) support for Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, this positive development quickly came crashing down with the September 2014 disappearance of 43 students from Ayotzinapa. It is believed that local authorities were behind the disappearance of the students, widely presumed dead (the remains of at least one victim have been identified). Their disappearance became a rallying cry for the general population, which has protested governmental corruption, bureaucratic inefficiency and abuses for months.

Moreover, in spite of the capture of high-profile cartel leaders, cartel members have shown little, if any, concern when it comes to attacking the country’s security forces. Case in point: A few weeks ago 15 Mexican police officers were killed and five were injured in an ambush in Jalisco. The Jalisco-New Generation Cartel is believed to have orchestrated the attack to avenge the recent death of one of their own, Heriberto Acevedo (AKA “El Gringo”), who was targeted by police.

In other words, it is hard to determine if the situation in Mexico is improving, deteriorating, or morphing into a bizarre (and deadly) status quo.

Nevertheless, in recent years one aspect of Mexico’s internal strife has remained generally constant — U.S. support for its neighbor’s security agencies. As previously mentioned, Washington has cooperated with Mexico to crack down on narco cartels. Some of the most-well known initiatives include intelligence aid. Mexican media has reported that unmanned aerial vehicles (commonly known as drones) were utilized to tap into the telephone calls of the aforementioned “Chapo” Guzman, which helped locate him for his eventual capture. Another example occurred in 2012, when there was a bizarre incident in which two CIA agents were shotat by the Mexican federal police in Mexico City, making many wonder how much of an intelligence presence the U.S. has in Mexico. Certainly it would not be surprising if agents from institutions like the Drug Enforcement Administration currently operate on the Mexican side of the U.S.-Mexico border, in bordering states like Baja California, Chihuahua or the restive Tamaulipas.

However, one important initiative regarding U.S.-Mexico cooperation that often goes underreported is weapons sales. This past year, the U.S. sold 18 Black Hawk helicopters to its Mexican partners for internal security operations. Additionally, on March 17, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced that the State Department had approved the sale of three additional UH-60M Black Hawks along with “associated equipment, parts, training and logistical support for an estimated cost of $110 million.” The DSCA’s press release goes on to explain that this sale supports the “foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a strategic partner [as] Mexico has been a strong partner in combating organized crime and drug trafficking organizations.”

It is worth noting that the second Black Hawks deal is not the only recent weapons deal between Washington and Mexico City. Also in March, the U.S. donated three X-ray units, type Z Backscatter Van, which will be utilized by the Mexican Navy to crack down on drugs and weapons smuggling. Finally, also in March, the Mexican Air Force reported the purchase of 15 light Bell helicopters, type 407GX, from Bell Helicopter, a subsidiary of Textron (headquartered in Rhode Island). The new units will be deployed to Jalisco, in Mexico’s Pacific Coast.

The aforementioned arms sales and others, which this commentary will not address in the interest of brevity, highlight the fact that the Mexican armed forces are undergoing a renovation process, in which new equipment is being acquired. Fortunately for the Latin American nation, the U.S. has proved to be a reliable weapons merchant as various types of high-tech military equipment have made their way from the U.S. to Mexico, with the goal of cracking down on narco cartels. Then again, how well this new military equipment has been utilized to defeat cartels is debatable. There have certainly been major successes, but for every capture (or elimination) of a drug lord, comes news about bold and deadly attacks against Mexican security forces, such as the recent murder of 15 police officers in Jalisco.

Even with modern military equipment and ongoing U.S. support at various levels, the battle for Mexico is nowhere close to being won.