Blouin World: Rio Olympics: What’s the worst that could happen?

"Rio Olympics: What's the worst that could happen?"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin Beat: World
April 8, 2016
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2016/04/08/rio-olympics-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/

The Brazilian government, presidential scandals aside, is focused on ensuring that the upcoming Summer Olympics and Paralympics in Rio de Janeiro occur successfully and peacefully. The event is expected to attract between 350 to 500 thousand foreign tourists, not counting the 10 thousand athletes that will compete in 42 different sports. The question is: what security-related incident is Brasilia trying to prevent?

The obvious answer is some type of terrorist operation, with the 2015 attacks in Paris and Brussels by ISIS serving as a recent and tragic precedent. In fact, the Paris attacks occurred while a friendly soccer match between France and Germany was taking place at the Stade de France. Moreover, there is already the precedent of one successful terrorist attack during an Olympic event: the 1972 Munich attacks carried out by the Palestinian Black September group, which killed 11 Israeli Olympian athletes and one German police officer.

In order to prepare for the worst-case scenario, the Brazilian security and defense forces will carry out an unprecedented operation. Brazilian Defense Minister Aldo Rebelo announced in March that 38 thousand military personnel will be deployed, with 20 thousand in Rio itself, not counting personnel from other security agencies. According to the Brazilian Defense Ministry, Rio will be divided into four defense command sections (CDS Deodoro, CDS Maracana, CDS Copacabana and CDS Barra da Tijuca) in order for the security forces to better monitor the Olympic venues. Rio certainly appears to be ready for the Olympics from a security perspective as the defense commands are training for any type of incident, be it a terrorist attack or even nuclear, radiological or biological threats.

Nevertheless, this preparedness program has not been scandal-free. Case in point: In late March, Colonel Adilson Moreira from the National Force for Public Security resigned after sending an e-mail to his colleagues that was critical of President Dilma Rousseff.

It is worth noting that, some protests aside, the Brazilian government has successfully organized major sporting events in recent years, namely the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup and the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Moreover, Gustavo Palhares, a partner at Furriela Advogados (a São Paulo law firm with a branch in Washington DC), told me that “for the past decade, the city and state of Rio have invested in security, particularly to ‘pacify’ the favelas [shantytowns]; although crime has not disappeared in Rio, the city is more prepared than ever to host the Olympic Games.”

Indeed, as Palhares explained, rather than some terrorist attack à la Munich 1972, the major concern regarding the upcoming Games is crime, i.e., the possibility of tourists or athletes being robbed (or worse) by the city’s numerous gangs. Unfortunately, there have been recent incidents that stress this possibility. For example, in January, four people were killed and 11 were injuredwhen criminals attacked a bar in Rio’s western area, in Vargem Pequena. Then, in mid-March, a member of a Pacifying Police Unit (Unidad de Policia Pacificadora, UPP) was murdered by unknown bandits in broad daylight during a routine patrol. Finally, and in an ironic development,Lieutenant-Colonel Murilo Angelloti of the Copacabana division of the Military Police (BPM) was recently the victim of a robbery. When he left his home on Sunday, April 3, three men held him at gunpoint and stole his car. Palhares clarified that “these crimes occurred in areas of the city where the Games will not take place.”

The aforementioned examples demonstrate that crime in Rio has been contained, rather than completely eradicated. Certainly, it would be naïve to believe that crime in a city like Rio (with a population of well over six million) could be fully solved via the pacification operations.

Ultimately, it is necessary to place potential crimes (not terrorist attacks) during the Olympics in the context of Brazil’s current tense political situation. Should foreign tourists or Olympian athletes be mugged, as Palhares explains, this will negatively affect President Dilma Rousseff’s image, “especially at a moment when she is in a political war to save her presidency.” While the possibility of a terrorist attack in Rio is arguably extremely remote, even a wave of robberies may be enough to hurt the president.

- W. Alejandro Sanchez, researcher
@W_Alex_Sanchez | Blog: Geopolitics

VOXXI: Brazil: The challenges of Senator Romario for Rio in 2016

"Brazil: The Challenges of Senator Romario for Rio in 2016"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
October 8, 2014
Originally published: http://voxxi.com/2014/10/08/romario-senator-challenges-brazil

While Brazil’s new president will not be elected until the October 26 run-off, the composition of the country’s congress is clearer: One newly elected Senator is Romario de Souza Faria, simply known as Romario or Baixinho (short guy), a renowned retired Brazilian football superstar.

Romario, 48, will have four busy years in the Senate as he represents Rio de Janeiro, his native state. One immediate priority is overseeing the preparations of the 2016 Summer Olympics, which will take place in Rio. Hopefully, Romario’s skills as an athlete will translate into being a capable statesman as his home state faces challenges that require serious leadership.

Romario Can’t Lose

Discussing Romario’s life is beyond the scope of this article, but enumerating some facts are necessary. Throughout his lengthy soccer career, he played for Vasco da Gama and Flamengo, two Rio de Janeiro-based clubs. While playing for the national team, he is most remembered for winning the 1994 FIFA World Cup.

His popularity helped him in his home state when he decided to become a politician. In 2010, he was elected to the chamber of deputies as a member of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB).

Four years later, in the recent October 5, 2014 elections, Romario ran for a Senate seat representing his native state. The elections were no challenge as he obtained 63.4% of the vote against his rival Cesar Maia, from the Democratic Party (DEM), who only obtained 20.5%. Romario gained 4.68 million votes. This remarkable high number of votes makes him the senator who has received the most votes in Rio de Janeiro’s history.

Upon receiving the news of the results, Romario enthusiastically tweeted, “I won everyone! Thank you very much, a former resident of the favelas [Brazilian slums] became a senator of the Republic! “

Romario’s Challenges

Romario’s landslide victory gives the retired athlete a decisive mandate when he goes to Congress; yet he will certainly have plenty of issues to keep him occupied.

First and foremost, Senator Romario’s immediate challenge will be the 2016 Olympics. During his time as a deputy, Romario prominently critiqued Brazil hosting the recent FIFA World Cup, arguing that it was a waste of public money. This past July, he memorably called the Brazilian Football Confederation “corrupt.” Many Brazilians shared his sentiment, as dramatically demonstrated by the 2013 mass riots across the country.

Looking into the future, Romario has promised to monitor public spending regarding construction projects for the Olympics. Additionally, he wants to ensure that the Rio 2016 Commission constructs an Olympic Training Center, which will serve to train new generations of Brazilian athletes after the Olympics take place.

Romario’s second goal is to fight for the rights of Brazilians with disabilities. This interest stems from his daughter Ivy, who was born with Down Syndrome.

In spite of the importance of the two aforementioned issues, the citizens of Rio, the country’s second biggest metropolitan area, are probably most concerned with public security. Case in point, in May 2013, schools closed and businesses closed due to Rio drug dealers, who demanded a curfew as part of a standoff with police forces.Security forces, including the famous Police Pacification Units, have carried out major pacification operations throughout the country in recent years to reclaim control of favelas from gangs and drug traffickers as part of the preparations for the World Cup and the Olympics.

While Romario may prefer to focus on combatting corruption in Brazilian sports, the retired superstar, and former resident of a favela, must take a leading role from the Senate floor regarding future security operations across his home state.

Romario and the Presidency Elections

As a final point, it is interesting to note that Romario has not yet publicly stated which candidate he will support for the upcoming presidential run-off. The renowned Brazilian newspaper Folha de S. Paulo explains that he does not seem to support either candidate, Dilma Rousseff or Aécio Neves.

Romario belongs to the PSB, Marina Silva’s party. Before October 5, Silva was believed to be the main rival to President Rousseff’s re-election. According to the Brazilian news agency UOL.com, Romario tied his electoral campaign with the PSB brand and Marina Silva’s image when she was improving her position in the polls. Since Silva appears to be leaning towards supporting Neves in the run-off, it will be interesting to see if Romario follows his party’s decision, remains neutral, or if he ultimately supports the current president.

While the Brazilian population has yet to select a new president, the inhabitants of Rio de Janeiro have unequivocally voiced that they want Romário as their senator.

VOXXI: A bad omen for Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff?

A Bad Omen for Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff?
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
June 19, 2013
Originally published: http://www.voxxi.com/bad-omen-for-brazil-dilma-rousseff/

It certainly was not the start of the sports season that President Dilma Rousseff was expecting. Since the start of the FIFA Confederations Cup — the first of three major sports tournaments that Brazil will host over the next few years — Brazilian citizens have taken to the streets to protest.

The head of state was even severely booed during her opening speech before the Brazil-Japan football match that kicked off the Confederations tournament.

Besides this championship, Brazil will also host the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro.

Currently, the economic situation in the South American state is not particularly dire. In fact, the country has enjoyed growth over the past decade. Nevertheless, Brazilians decided to air their disgust for several of the government’s recent financial decisions, primarily the rising costs of public transportation and the costs of numerous construction projects that have been planned to prepare the country for the aforementioned events.

Interpreting the situation

As with anything that has to do with economics, interpreting Brazil’s economic status, both at the macro and micro level, depends on what data is analyzed.

For example, a May 31 article in The Washington Post has the provocative — and very optimistic — title of how Brazil and other emerging economies “could save the world economy.” The article goes on to explain that, even if the growth of Brazil, India and China is slowing down, it is “not necessarily a bad thing in a world that is trying to cultivate a more sustainable and less combustible era of economic expansion.”

On the other hand, the financial agency Standard & Poor’s recently changed Brazil’s economic outlook from “stable” to “negative.” Moreover, it seems that many Brazilian citizens have a different way of interpreting Brazil’s slowing pace and recent financial actions than the author of the aforementioned Washington Post commentary.

According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, the country’s GDP grew 1.9% in the first quarter of 2013 relative to the same period last year. The country’s economy grew at an impressive 7.5% in 2010, so the current slow pace is troubling to some analysts and the general population alike.

As previously mentioned, economic performance is interpreted differently depending on whether you are an analyst for a major financial institution in New York or a low-income citizen in a favela (a shantytown). Recent polls indicate that Brazilian citizens fear their economy is taking a turn for the worse. In one case, most respondents to a recent poll believe that they “expected health and education not to improve or worsen,” in the coming months.

The raise in the price of transportation fares has been enough to jumpstart protests across the country. Several protests recently took place in major Brazilian cities like Sao Paulo, Porto Alegre and Curitiba. These public manifestations seemed to have worked, as several cities have declared that they will reduce the price of local transportation fares.

Unsurprisingly, a less-than-ideal financial situation has hit President Rousseff’s popularity, which has slipped from 57% in July 2012 to 54% currently. At first sight, this is not a great loss, as most Brazilians still approve of the president’s mandate. Nevertheless, it is important to remember that Brazil will have presidential elections on October 2014, not long after the end of the FIFA World Cup.

Rousseff is still a favorite to be re-elected, but if the economic situation worsens — and if more corruption scandals regarding the construction projects for the sporting events explode in the coming months — her re-election bid could be in jeopardy.

Justified protests?

Besides the outrage over the increasing price of public transportation, another reason for the Brazilian protests is the concern regarding the costs of the major construction initiatives the Brazilian government has been carrying out in recent years in preparation for the international sporting events. These include the renovation of football stadiums and the construction of roads.

Unsurprisingly, there is the well-founded worry that the government is spending too much for these events, which could promote bribes and corruption among government officials who decide on which company gets these expensive contracts. In October 2011, then-Sports Minister Orlando Silva quit after been accused of accepting kickbacks for sports projects.

Certainly, the Brazilian citizenry is right to voice their outrage about the construction contracts that have been handed out and are worth millions of dollars. Moreover, yours truly would add that, as much international pedigree and good PR as these events will bring to Brazil, the aforementioned new sports venues may end up being abandoned as soon as the sports events are over.

Other cities that have hosted Olympic Games spent millions on expensive sports venues only to see that the buildings that were built specifically for them go to waste. A similar situation has already occurred in Athens.

Hopefully, the Brazilian sports ministry has a long term plan for using these new and state-of-the-art sports venues.

Possible Solutions

The Rousseff administration would be well-advised to revise their decision on the transportation price increases, as it seems clear that such an unpopular move will only promote more protests in the near future. Meanwhile, it is arguably too late to cancel major renovation or construction projects for the upcoming sports events, and doing so would just bring further criticism of governmental incompetency.

The best option the president and her cabinet has is to explain to the population that the sports-related contracts were conducted in a transparent and corruption-free way (the Silva scandal notwithstanding).

In addition, a publicly available master plan for the future uses of the new venues would also help to show that the Brazilian government has not placed short-term business contracts over long-term vision for national economic growth.

This may not be enough to appease the protesters and their (numerous) demands and concerns, but it’s a start.

Read more: http://www.voxxi.com/bad-omen-for-brazil-dilma-rousseff/#ixzz2WxUpv2mB