VOXXI: The 3 Amigos Summit was a moderate success for Mexico

The 3 Amigos Summit was a moderate success for Mexico
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI News
February 20, 2014
Originally published: http://voxxi.com/2014/02/20/3-amigos-summit-mexico-trade/

The Three Amigos Summit held this week in the Mexican city of Toluca did not generate any major economic breakthroughs, nor did President Enrique Peña Nieto convince his Canadian counterpart, Prime Minister Stephen Harper, to address a pesky visa requirement that Canada has for Mexican citizens.

Nevertheless, the Mexican leader and host can congratulate himself for a well-organized and incident-free high-level meeting which, at the very least, has generated slight momentum for relations between Mexico City and Ottawa.

A Mexico-Canada momentum?

Prime Minister Harper seemed particularly eager to make the best of his trip to Mexico. He arrived on Monday, February 17, and spent a total of three days in the host country.

Harper and Peña Nieto reportedly signed four cooperation agreements which included a new “Action Plan” for relations between Mexico and Canada for 2014-2016. The Action Plan is hailed as an important document as it identifies priorities so that the economies of both countries can be more competitive.

Other agreements deal with credits for exports as well as “greater access for Mexican airlines to Canadian cities and vice versa.”

The two leaders also penned a declaration to promote bilateral relations. The statement highlights how bilateral trade has grown more than six times since NAFTA came into effect in 1994. It explains that trade between Mexico and Canada surpassed 31 billion dollars (USD) in 2012. Canada is the second biggest importer of Mexican goods and the fourth largest investor in Mexico.

The 3 Amigos meet

The summit itself took place in a picturesque location: the botanical gardens of Toluca. While Prime Minister Harper spent a couple of days in Mexico, President Obama arrived on the day of the summit to join his North American counterparts.

The three leaders met in private, but they also carried out public ceremonies, including a brief press conference at the conclusion of the summit (click here for a video of the three leaders’ final remarks).

It should be stressed that the three leaders’ public remarks did not provide any new initiatives. In their final statements, the leaders declared their support for the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), clean energy partnerships, and also addressed the situations in Ukraine, Syria, and, briefly, Venezuela.

The 800 Pound Visa in the Room

As previously mentioned, one topic that was not publicly discussed in Toluca was immigration, in the broad sense of the word.

Mexico hopes that the U.S. government will reform its immigration program in order to allow the regulation of undocumented Mexicans that reside in the U.S. However, this process has been slow to occur and it is doubtful that a breakthrough will happen in Capitol Hill before the end of President Obama’s second term.

Meanwhile, Ottawa has been ambivalent in agreeing to a visa waiver for Mexicans traveling in Canada.

Harper has declared that Mexico meets the criteria to require its citizen a visa to enter Canada, and this is unlikely to change in the near future.

“We remain always ready to discuss those criteria, what Mexico could do to address some of those issues and also what possibilities exist between us to facilitate legitimate travel,” the Prime Minister stated.

Canada’s visa requirements for Mexicans were imposed in 2009 to combat an increase of fraudulent asylum seekers.

President Peña Nieto and Prime Minister Harper discussed the visa issue during the summit and the Mexican leader praised the Canadian leader for being open to dialogue on this issue. To put it in a more straightforward way: an agreement over the visas has not been reached yet.

To be fair, there were some initiatives with the potential to simplify immigration and encourage the movement of individuals across borders.

In his concluding remarks, President Peña Nieto explained the educational initiatives to encourage U.S. students to study in Mexico and vice versa. One ambitious goal that was mentioned includes 100 thousand Mexican students traveling to the U.S. and 50 thousand Americans going to Mexico.  Nevertheless, it’s unclear if there is a timeline for these proposals to be put in place.

Finally, President Obama highlighted that he is cutting the bureaucratic “red tape” to make it easier for American businesses to export and import from other countries. This will have the added benefit of making it easier for businesspeople and tourists to travel.

Ultimately the question comes down to how what was accomplished in the 2014 Three Amigos summit: No major agreement was reached (such as a new direction for the NAFTA bloc) other than the interest of the three leaders to support the TPP. With that said, the agreements between President Peña Nieto and Prime Minister Harper may signal a new momentum for stronger relations between Mexico and Canada.

Ultimately, President Peña Nieto declared that he congratulated himself for having created a space for dialogue at Toluca. While that is true, Mexicans probably would have preferred a new visa agreement with Canada.

VOXXI: The February 2014 Three Amigos Summit

The February 2014 Three Amigos Summit
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
January 20, 2014
Originally published: http://voxxi.com/2014/01/20/february-three-amigos-summit/

On February 19, U.S. President Barack Obama, Mexico’s President Enrique Pena Nieto and Canada’s Prime Minister Stephen Harper will meet in Toluca, Mexico. The meeting has the official title of the “North American Leaders Summit,” but it is more popularly known as the “Three Amigos” summit.

The last time the three leaders met was briefly in 2012 in Washington, and plenty has happened since then. Topics like marijuana legalization, security issues, the NSA scandal, the 20th anniversary of NAFTA and the future of North American trade are some of the topics that could, and should, be discussed at this meeting of amigos.

Possible Topics

Which issues will be addressed will depend on the scheduled length of the summit itself. For the moment, it seems that this gathering, while friendly, will be brief.

During a January 13 press briefing, James Brady, the White House’s Press Secretary, did not confirm whether President Obama will spend the night in Mexico. He simply stated to the press, “What I have here is that he will be traveling to Toluca, Mexico on February 19. We’ll have more details for you later.”

On the other hand, the Canadian leader will arrive on February 17 for a two-day trip. The Canadian newspaper Globe & Mail muses that Harper is “looking to sign a second major trade deal before the next election.” In other words, there seems to be a strong incentive for Harper to leave Mexico with some kind of international agreement to showcase back home.

It should be noted, as the Canadian news agency CBC News explains, that the Mexican government may pressure Harper to lift “Canadian travel visa requirements on visiting Mexicans.” We will have to wait until February 19 to see if these restrictions are in fact lifted.

Finally, it will also be interesting to see if the NSA scandal will be addressed by the Mexican government, as the U.S. intelligence agency also spied on Mexican leaders. As recently as mid-January, the Mexican ambassador to the U.S. Eduardo Medina Mora, declared that Washington has barely explained the NSA’s operations.

More trade more integration?

If nothing else, the upcoming Toluca summit will be an opportunity for the three leaders to give flattering speeches about the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which celebrates its 20th anniversary this January 2014.

The agreement has been repeatedly praised by business communities and trade agencies alike. For example, the website of the U.S. Trade Representative highlights how “All member economies have grown significantly from 1993-2003: United States: 38% economic growth, Canada: 30.9% and Mexico: 30%.”

Of course, the data does not portray the full reality of what NAFTA does, like the exploitation of Mexican laborers that work in U.S. -owned factories: The Maquiladoras.

Some analysts have also critiqued the agreement as not having positive effects on the U.S.; a January op-ed in The Guardian argues that “the promised trade surpluses with Mexico turned out to be deficits, some hundreds of thousands of jobs were lost, and there was downward pressure on US wages.” Moreover, there are still sensitive issues regarding commercial integration that have not been perfected, such as allowing Mexican trucks to cross the U.S. border.

All in all, it is expected that if the three leaders do discuss trade initiatives, an issue which will probably be brought up by Harper, some mention of NAFTA will be in order.

Mexico stands out

Finally, it is worth stressing that hosting the Three Amigos summit will be a very important event for the Mexican government. As for what this means for President Pena Nieto himself, this is a perfect way to begin 2014.

Pena Nieto came to power in 2012 and in 2013 he carried out several high-profile diplomatic meetings. Most memorably, in April of last year Pena Nieto traveled to China where he met with President Xi Jinping. The Chinese leader returned the favor in June and the two leaders signed the (stereotypically called) Tequila Agreement, in order to foment bilateral relations.

In May 2013, President Obama traveled to Mexico to meet with Pena Nieto, though in a May 7 commentary for VOXXI, I stressed that the U.S. leader’s trip to Mexico (and Costa Rica) ended without high-profile agreements. Finally, this past December, the Mexican leader made a memorable trip to Turkey.

Thanks to its economic development, in spite of ongoing internal violence, Mexico is regarded as a major player in Latin America and a growing global power. The country is a member of the Pacific Alliance, a trade bloc of vibrant Latin American nations. While the Alliance’s goal is to foment commerce between its members, this could (and should) serve as a springboard for social initiatives, like visa waivers for citizens of the Alliance’s members.

Moreover, a new acronym of rising global powers has appeared: the MINT nations – Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey. Recent analyses and op-eds portray this grouping as the new power players – a December 2013 report in the BBC was titled “From BRIC to MINT.” To what extent MINT could become some kind of alliance or just an informal initiative remains to be seen, but it does exemplify that Mexico is having a growing international presence.

In other words, the Three Amigos will meet at a great time for Mexican foreign policy. A successful summit would include a trilateral resolution that is actually carried out.

Certainly, issues like marijuana legalization or international military-oriented policies cannot be decided immediately. Nevertheless, the focus of the Amigos summit will likely be trade and Mexico’s EPN could use this meeting to more aggressively promote his country’s international trade position by take a leading role in NAFTA for the next years.

VOXXI: Mexico will be listening to Obama at Democratic National Convention

Mexico will be listening to Obama at Democratic National ConventionW. Alejandro Sanchez
Research Fellow, Council on Hemispheric Affairs
VOXXI
September 4, 2012
Originally published: http://bit.ly/Q5Lcct

Mexico is listening to President Barack Obama’s expectations for a second term and his plans to improve US-Mexico relations at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte.

When President Barack Obama delivers his speech accepting his party’s re-nomination at the Democratic National Convention, attendees and television viewers will be listening with a diversity of expectations. Mexican observers will be taking note of how much time the DNC will devote to the discussion of issues like drug trafficking and immigration during the upcoming meeting. During the recently-concluded Republican National Convention, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice pushed for a “compassionate” immigration policy, to appeal to Latino voters. While this issue is important for U.S. citizens of Mexican background, it is just one of many facing the next administration.

The DREAM and Immigration

Students in Arizona listen to news of new Obama immigration policy June 15, in which 800,000 “dreamers” could get a reprieve from deportation. (Photo Voxxi/Griselda Nevarez)

A well-known immigration-related bill is the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors, commonly known as the DREAM Act, which, if passed, would be a major victory for the Obama administration. This piece of legislation provides legal residency status for undocumented residents who arrived to the country as minors, who graduate from U.S. high schools and have lived continuously in the country for five years. Since DREAM has yet to be passed, Obama signed an executive order earlier this year that resembles the aforementioned bill. According to research carried out by the Washington DC-basedImmigration Policy Center, most of the likely beneficiaries of DREAM are originally from Mexico and most currently reside in California. Whether similar initiatives will expand to other undocumented immigrants (based on their age group, time living in the U.S., or lack of criminal record) during a potential Obama second term, remains to be seen. Republican candidate Mitt Romney has been generally ambivalent on immigration policies.

Whether or not the immigration issue influences Latino voters’ decisions come November is debatable, though, a pro-immigration stance should help Obama gain significant votes in areas that have large Latino communities, like those of Mexican descent, such as California.

NAFTA and Free Trade

A file photo showing the President Barack Obama being welcomed by Mexico’s President Felipe Calderon. (Photo/ White House/Pete Souza)

While campaigning during the 2008 Democratic primaries, President Obama and his then-opponent Hillary Clinton had differing positions on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which the U.S. signed with Canada and Mexico. Obama seemed to hint that he was supportive of free trade agreements, but that he wanted them to be more beneficial for American farmers. This meant that he would want to renegotiate such agreements as president. Some media reports argued that Mexican workers had supported renegotiation, as it might force the Mexican government to “[reform] its repressive low-wage labor policies.”

Ultimately, the Obama administration did not revisit NAFTA. If anything, the White House has pushed for other FTAs in the Western Hemisphere, as exemplified by the ratifications of said agreements with Panama, Colombia and ongoing negotiations for the Trans Pacific Partnership (which includes Peru and Chile). Additionally, trade between the U.S. and Mexico has grown: according the U.S. Census, the U.S. exported $193 million worth of goods in 2011, and has so far exported $106 million worth of goods in 2012 (according to data available up to June). Moreover, in 2011, the U.S. president and his Mexican counterpart, Felipe Calderon, finally agreed that Mexican truckers could carry goods into the U.S., eliminating “tariffs on $2.3 billion of American goods and agricultural products as soon as the first Mexican truck obtains a permit.”

Such initiatives suggest that a second Obama term would probably mean similar free trade-initiatives to promote greater economic integration with Mexico, as opposed to revisiting NAFTA.

Security issues for Obama-EPN

An armored U.S. Embassy vehicle is checked by military personal after it was attacked by unknown assailants on the highway leading to the city of Cuernavaca, near Tres Marias, Mexico, Friday, Aug. 24, 2012. (AP Photo/Alexandre Meneghini)

The future of security relations between Washington and Mexico City presents another important issue as Enrique Peña Nieto (EPN) assumes the Mexican presidency in December. The outgoing Calderon administration had a generally good relationship (punctuated by occasional friction) with Washington as he pursued a military option to deal with the various Mexican cartels.

The new Mexican head of state has hinted that he may take a more relaxed approach when fighting the narcos and drug trafficking as compared to his predecessor, a major concern for Washington. Does this mean that Obama will continue, increase or even decrease the economic aid Washington gives Mexico City under the Merida Initiative? In 2009 the U.S. president approved a supplemental budget, which increased funding for Mexico to $1.12 billion. Then, in 2010, the White House also requested $410 million in aid to Mexico and Central America for the 2011 fiscal year, $310 million of which would be for Mexico City. The (multi) million dollar question is whether economic aid to Mexico will vary once EPN takes the presidency and begins structuring his own strategy relevant to the drug war and the cartels.

In addition there is the question of what other initiatives a second Obama administration is willing to carry out if it believes the EPN presidency is not as firm on the cartels as some Washington insiders may like. Recently there was an incident in which, according to The New York Times, the Mexican federal police allegedly shot two CIA operatives in Mexico City. While details remain sketchy, the issue calls into question the numbers of U.S. security and intelligence forces working with, or independently of, their Mexican counterparts in Mexico. Washington is certainly interested in maintaining the momentum regarding Mexico’s militaristic approach to dealing with cartels, and one can’t help but draw parallels to the U.S.’s increased military and intelligence presence in Colombia via Plan Colombia.

Obama and his Team

President Barack Obama speaks at a campaign event at Scott High School Monday, Sept. 3, 2012, in Toledo, Ohio. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

Should Obama be re-elected, new initiatives regarding U.S.-Mexico relations will not just fall on his shoulders but will also depend on a number of other factors. For example, a critical issue will be the new shape of the U.S. Congress after the elections. The Democrats currently only control the Senate via a slim majority; they lost their majority of the House after the 2010 mid-term elections. If Democrats strengthen control in the former, or regain control of the latter, the victory may be regarded as a green light to new White House-sponsored initiatives, particularly regarding immigration and border-control.

Finally, there is the issue of what advice the President will receive regarding the structure of U.S.-Mexico relations over the next four years. As this author discussed in a previous VOXXI article, there are two important positions that help define Washington’s policy toward Latin America: the Senior Director for the Western Hemisphere on the National Security Council; and the Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs at the State Department. The former position is currently held by Ricardo Zuniga, who is known for his experience in Cuban affairs. Meanwhile, Roberta S. Jacobson holds the Assistant Secretary seat at State; she also served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Canada, Mexico and NAFTA. The U.S. ambassador to Mexico holds another relevant position; that title currently falls to Ambassador Earl Anthony “Tony” Wayne, who was nominated by President Obama in June 2011. How the White House responds to the first year of EPN’s presidency will most likely be influenced in part on the recommendations of Ambassador Wayne.

Re-election will grant Obama the advantage of not having to worry about a second re-election, allowing him, hopefully, to work for more progressive and bold projects. Besides previously discussed Mexico-related initiatives, this may mean lifting more sanctions regarding the Cuban embargo, or maybe even attempting to close the detention center in Guantanamo Bay, another of his campaign promises. We may see more trade and immigration initiatives as well, particularly if the Democrats gain a bigger presence in Congress and if Latin America (and Mexico in particular), receives greater attention in the White House’s foreign policy agenda.

The crowd cheers as Vice President Joe Biden speaks at the Metro Detroit AFL-CIO Labor Day Rally, Monday, Sept. 3, 2012, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)