"DRC Elections and the Fate of the UN MONUSCO Mission"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
Geopolitical Monitor
Opinion
21 January 2019
Originally published:
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/drc-elections-and-the-fate-of-the-un-monusco-mission/
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) held long-awaited general elections on
30 December to replace President Joseph Kabila,
who has ruled the country for almost two decades. The results were
controversial: opposition candidate Felix Tshisekedi was declared the
winner, but another candidate, Martin Fayulu, has cried foul, stating
that he is the rightful winner and that Tshisekedi’s victory is a result
of a pact between him and Kabila. At the time of this writing
the Constitutional Court has reportedly confirmed Tshisekedi’s victory.
The Elections
The population of the DRC and the international community in general
have waited for fair presidential elections in the African nation for a
long time, not to mention a peaceful transfer of power. President Kabila
took control of the country when his father,
President Laurent Kabila, was assassinated in 2001.
The young Kabila would then rule until today, presiding over a
transitional government when the Second Congo War ended, and winning
elections in
2006 and
2011, which were marked by controversy. The country was supposed to hold new elections in
2016
and Kabila was constitutionally barred from running again, but the
polls were ultimately postponed, as Kinshasa argued that ongoing
violence in the East, a
lack of funds to organize the elections,
and insufficient time to update the voter registry prevented the
government from holding them.
Elections were then supposed to occur on
23 December 2018, only to be postponed once again, and they finally took
place on 30 December.
According to election officials, “Mr Tshisekedi received 38.5% of the
vote, compared with 34.7% for Mr Fayulu. Ruling coalition candidate
Emmanuel Shadary took 23.8%,”
the BBC explains.
“Fayulu has alleged that Tshisekedi’s win was the result of a backroom
deal between Tshisekedi and Kabila that allows Kabila to maintain
control over important ministries and the security services,”
Al Jazeera reports.
There is widespread concern about the elections and the future of the country, with entities like the
Southern African Development Community and other international organizations either requesting a recount or
calling for calm
in the African nation. The African Union has requested Kinshasa to
suspend the announcement of final election results, which the DRC
government has denied,
insisting that the Constitutional Court’s assessment of the
vote’s legality is impartial. It remains to be seen whether the
international community will recognize Tshisekedi’s apparent victory –
analysts that follow African affairs should monitor which heads of state
and diplomatic delegations attend his swearing-in ceremony, which is
“scheduled for Tuesday, January 22, according to the latest calendar of
the National Independent Electoral Commission (Céni),”
AfricaNews reports.
Discussing MONUSCO’s Future
It is in this scenario that MONUSCO continues to operate in the DRC. The UN Security Council, via
Resolution 2409 (2018),
extended MONUSCO’s mandate until 31 March of 2019, with a ceiling of
“16,215 military personnel, 660 military observers and staff officers,
391 police personnel, and 1,050 personnel of formed police units,”
including an Intervention Brigade. According to data provided by
UN Peacekeeping,
as of 31 December 2018, MONUSCO has 15,366 UN contingent troops; 1,364
UN police officers; and 263 staff officers, making it the largest UN
peacekeeping operation in the world. As for the mission’s mandate,
Article 31 of Resolution 2409 explains that MONUSCO’s priorities are 1)
protecting civilians; and 2) supporting the implementation of the 31
December 2016 agreement to hold elections.
The critical question that must be addressed is: What is MONUSCO’s
future? Should it commence a withdrawal from the country or continue
operating there?
There is no consensus on MONUSCO’s future among experts as the
situation in the DRC is so complex. On the one hand, the country did
hold elections, which fulfills one of the mandate’s objectives; however,
the polls were controversial to say the least, and
violence
has already occurred as the population takes to the streets. Scott
Morgan, a long-time analyst of African affairs, argued to me that “the
uncertainty of the presidential polls could lead to violence regardless
of which candidate is declared the winner. Having the mission remain to
monitor the situation is crucial at this time.” Moreover, violence in
the Eastern part of the country continues, and the “situation in Burundi
is not expected to show any improvement in the near future. The
repatriation of FDLR fighters to Rwanda is another issue that needs to
be addressed.” To make things even worse, as if that were possible,
there is a new
Ebola outbreak to deal with, and there have been over 600 reported cases and 368 deaths as of early January.
UN peacekeepers could be a key player in handling these challenges,
particularly as the Congolese armed forces (FARDC) “either lack the
capacity or the will to address these issues,” Morgan concludes, not to
mention that the national police and the FARDC are guilty of plenty of
crimes themselves. “Women and children are often kidnapped, frequently
for the purpose of sexual exploitation, with rapes and gang rapes
committed both by armed groups and sometimes by the army,” a
UN report explains.
Alas, the mission’s own record so far is hardly ideal, considering widespread evidence of peacekeepers involvement
in sexual abuse,
human rights violations,
corruption, or failing to protect Congolese civilians even though they are mandated to do so.
In a co-authored article entitled “
Yes, MONUSCO Needs To Stay in the DRC,” published by the
International Policy Digest in May 2017, Scott Morgan and I argued that, in spite of MONUSCO’s
many,
many
shortcomings and flaws, it should stay in the DRC. Moreover, the
mission’s troops should receive clearer mandates and orders about
supporting and protecting Congolese civilians from violence and abuse.
When I asked an African expert whether MONUSCO should stay in the DRC,
the blunt reply I received was: “to do what? They do not protect
civilians right now, so why should they stay?” The expert also argued
that MONUSCO’s mandate needs to be more forcefully implemented by the
blue helmets in the ground.
Other experts have argued that it is time for MONUSCO to leave, but
in an orderly, well-planned, and structured fashion. This may have to
occur anyways, as, given its size, MONUSCO is an expensive operation and
the
United States, among many other countries,
are not paying their dues to the UN. One possibility is that the
mission can be transformed into a political mission or a police one –
akin to the UN mission in Haiti,
MINUSTAH, which became
MINUJUSTH.
Finally, it is important to mention that a key factor that will
influence the future of MONUSCO is the attitude of the new president
toward implementing rule of law, transparency and security in the
country. Relations between MONUSCO and Kabila were often tense, so we
will similarly have to monitor the new government’s attitude toward the
UN mission.
MONUSCO Is Trying
To be fair, MONUSCO has attempted to improve the situation in the DRC. For example in May 2018, the UN mission inaugurated “
several projects in support of victims
of sexual exploitation and abuse” in the North Kivu area. On 17
January, a vocational training center project for ex-combatants and
young people at risk was launched,
which was funded by the UN mission. Additionally, “MONUSCO has provided support to the
Ebola
response since the beginning of the outbreak through the provision of
logistical support, office facilities, transportation, communication,
and security,” the
World Health Organization explains.
Even more, MONUSCO personnel have lost their lives trying to make the
African nation a better place. According to UN data, the mission has
suffered 167 fatalities; in one incident this past November 2018,
six Malawian and one Tanzanian peacekeepers,
in addition to several FARDC troops, were killed in Beni territory,
North Kivu, while carrying out joint operations against a rebel movement
called Allied Democratic Forces (ADF).
Final Thoughts
It goes without saying that the UN Security Council will renew
MONUSCO’s mandate for another year, however what is debatable is whether
the UNSC will order a downsizing of the mission as a sign that it is
time for MONUSCO to leave. Tragically, the country continues to face
several challenges, including political instability. Thus, the weeks
ahead will provide an idea of whether the DRC can have a peaceful
transition of power and what this means for the future of the UN mission
in the African nation.
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez is an analyst who focuses on geopolitical, military and cyber security issues. @W_Alex_Sanchez.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone
and do not necessarily reflect those of any institutions with which the
author is associated.
