Blouin Beat: Politics - Is Ecuador’s Correa set to run again in 2017?

Is Ecuador's Correa set to run again in 2017?
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin Beat: Politics
March 4, 2014
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatpolitics/2014/03/04/is-ecuadors-correa-set-to-run-again-in-2017/

Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa is reconsidering his decision on running for a new presidential term. This comes a week after his political party, Alianza País, suffered defeats in the country’s municipal elections.

Correa and his party, which has a majority in Congress, seem to have decided in favor of a constitutional reform allowing Correa to run – it is widely expected that a motion will be presented in the very near future to eliminate term limits for the president. Gabriela Rivadeneira, president of Ecuador’s congress, has already declared that Alianza País “is discussing and will propose . . . an amendment to the constitution . . . to allow for re-election.”

Correa was first elected in December 2006, and he assumed the presidency on January 15, 2007. His four-year presidential term was supposed to end on January 2011, but his popularity among the citizenry allowed for a new constitution to be passed in 2008 – Ecuadorians approved the new constitution with a 64% support. In April 2009, the country had elections again to have a new president and congress under the new constitution. Correa was easily re-elected with 52% of the vote, while his closest competitor, former president Lucio Gutierrez, came in second with only 28%.

Ecuador essentially went through a “reset” of the presidency: Correa’s presidential term which began in 2009 counts as his first term because of the new constitution, even though he had already ruled for two years before the “reset.” In February 2013, Correa ran again (his first re-election after the new constitution), and easily beat his competitors in the first round with 57% of the vote. Moreover, Correa’s party Alianza Pais won 100 seats of the country’s 137-seat National Assembly.

It is important to highlight that until that point, article 144 of Ecuador’s 2008 constitution mandates that a head of state can only run for one presidential term. Moreover, in 2013, Correa himselfdeclared that he was not interested in running again, so his presidency would have ended in 2017.

The situation changed on February 23 when Ecuador’s municipal elections gave significant victories to opposition parties. Namely, opposition candidates won in the capital Quito as well as Cuenca, and also maintained the control of the country’s second-largest major urban area, Guayaquil.

Speaking about his party’s loss, Correa declared that “what’s happening in Quito is painful and dangerous; I hope I’m wrong.” He also tried to spin the situation explaining that this was a lesson and that he and his party could be “falling sleeping on their laurels.” On the other hand, Ecuadorian analysts highlighted that the municipal elections showed that “Correa is not invincible.”

A week later, on Saturday, March 1, Correa took his party’s loss one step further, as he declared that he was re-assessing his original statement to not run again: “we will not let the international right to take over the government.” He poetically added that he would not allow for “dark skies in the horizon of the Revolutionary Citizenry.”

Correa himself remains vastly popular among the Ecuadorian citizenry and, barring an economic meltdown a la Venezuela, it is safe to say that he will be re-elected in 2017 if the constitutional reform succeeds. But whether it is healthy for a popular leader, in Ecuador or elsewhere, to perpetuate himself (or herself) in power remains highly debatable.

In an interview with the Ecuadorian state-run news agency Andes, congressman Fabian Solanoargued that the goal of the amendment is not to maintain a single person in power but rather “to maintain a leadership to consolidate a political project towards a healthy socialism”. He also added“socialists have to be the echo of the people and if the homeland needs him I think that President Correa will listen to the people.”

Correa’s current popularity means that most Ecuadorians would likely vote for him in 2017. That means he will have ruled the country for over 14 years (if he steps down from power in 2021), since his original victory in 2006 — a long time for anyone to be a head of state, especially in Latin America, which has a problematic regional history with leaders who perpetuate themselves in power.

Here’s hoping Correa will be the exception to the rule.

VOXXI: Ecuador approves oil drilling in the Yasuni Park

Ecuador Approves Oil Drilling in the Yasuni Park
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
August 20, 2013
Originally published: http://www.voxxi.com/ecuador-approves-oil-drilling-yasuni/

Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa declared last Thursday, August 15, that the ban on oil drilling in his country’s Yasuni Park will be lifted. Ideally, successful oil extraction will aid the South American nation’s economy, but it will almost certainly come at the cost of the destruction of the local Amazonian environment. At this time, there is hardly any reason to believe that Correa may have a sudden change of heart and reverse his decision.

The impending loss of the Yasuni Park’s ecosystem is one more example of Mother Nature being on the losing side, not just in Ecuador, but also in other South American nations.

The Yasuni: A failed experiment?

Due to space limitations, this article cannot go into an in-depth discussion of the Yasuni conservation project, including the political negotiations between Correa and the international community. In essence, Correa proposed a plan in which the international community would pay the Ecuadorian government to not drill for oil in the park, ensuring the protection of the local fauna and flora. However, these pledges apparently have failed to materialize, as the Ecuadorian head of state has declared that his government has only received $13 million from international donors, a fraction of the $3.6 billion that was originally pledged.

Correa quickly blamed the international community for his decision, stating in his televised speech that “the world has failed us.” He also declared that “dear [Ecuadorian] youth, be sure that no one defends the Yasuni and no one is hurt the most by this decision than [me] the president.”

The decision to drill has come as a big blow to environmentalists, as it was hoped that, if the plan was successful, it could be used as a blueprint for similar initiatives in other endangered areas of the world. Ironically, the government’s decision also comes at a time when a new type of furry carnivore has been discovered in the cloud forest that borders Ecuador and Colombia. According to an article by National Geographic, the orange-brown animal, called an olinguito, is now the smallest member of the raccoon family.

Other examples

Ecuador is not alone in South America in its exploitation of its natural resources, even at serious cost to the environment. However, the decision over the Yasuni Park has been the most publicized because of the innovative initiative that was carried out in an attempt to protect it.

For example, the Peruvian government has also recently authorized oil-related projects that will be harmful to the country’s wildlife. Peru’s Ministry of Energy recently authorized the energy company Repsol to carry out oil exploration operations in the northern part of the Peruvian rainforest. Media reports state that the exploration is taking place in the natural habitat of isolated indigenous tribes.

A few success stories

In drafting this commentary, I was a bit hard pressed to find positive stories of environmental protection projects in South America, but this does not mean that they do not exist. Some communities have been successful at protecting their natural environments from destructive development projects by governments and/or private industrial companies.

For example, in 2011 the Bolivian government of President Evo Morales suspended plans to build a road across the Isiboro Secure National Park. Indigenous residents protested the government’s plan, arguing that the road would bring environmental destruction and  serve as an incentive for industrial corporations to attempt to carry out other projects in that area.

In addition, protesters in Peru have managed to stop Colorado’s Newmont Mining Corp. from implementing a major gold mining project, called the Conga. The numerous protests against the mine have often turned violent as opponents of the project argue that it will destroy the local ecosystem, draining local lakes into reservoirs for mining. Furthermore, the actual mining itself will arguably pollute other local waterways.

Finally, there is even good news regarding an engendered deer population that may be making a comeback in Chile. According to new studies, the population of the Huemul deer is increasing in numbers thanks to governmental and conservationist projects, like in the Bernardo O’Higgins National Park in the Patagonian region.

Is the environment losing?

The perception of this author is that yes, the environment in South America is taking a backseat to development and economic concerns. There have certainly been some successes, like the cancellation of the Bolivian highway and the Conga project in Peru.  These decisions, however, occurred not thanks to successful lobbying or dialogue with government representatives, but rather via violent protests that forced Presidents Morales and Humala to reconsider their decisions.

In addition, the discovery of the olinguito in Ecuador and the increase in the population of the Huemul deer in Chile, highlight the question of what other priceless and wonderful fauna and flora will be lost if the Yasuni Park is destroyed, fully or only partially, due to oil drilling operations.

Read more: http://www.voxxi.com/ecuador-approves-oil-drilling-yasuni/#ixzz2cXYlqba6

Blouin Beat: Correa’s PR hire highlights Ecuador’s shaky foreign policy

Correa's PR hire highlights Ecuador's shaky foreign policy
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin Beat: World
July 19, 2013
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2013/07/19/correas-pr-hire-highlights-ecuadors-shaky-foreign-policy/

U.S.-Ecuador relations have become tangled. In June, president Rafael Correa made headlines when he  offered NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden (who has been living in an airport terminal in Moscow for weeks), political asylum. This was considered an attempt by Correa to demonstrate that he was not controlled by “el imperio” (the empire, as Washington is labeled by several left-leaning Latin American governments). But Quito ultimately withdrew its offer and, in baffling recent news, has hired a public relations firm, Van Scoyoc Associates (VSA), based in Washington, D.C., to improve its relations with the U.S. government.

The Snowden proffer was not an isolated incident. Since Correa assumed the presidency in 2007, one of his leadership trademarks has been diplomatic clashing with Washington. In 2009, he famously terminated the U.S.’s lease with Ecuador regarding a military facility in Manta. The base had been an important part of Washington’s efforts to combat drug trafficking in South America. In June, in a move largely overshadowed by the Snowden affair, Ecuador terminated a bilateral trade agreement with Washington, the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (the ATPDEA) — though it is worth noting that the treaty was close to expiring and the U.S. Congress was unlikely to renew it. The cancellation of ATPDEA occurred essentially simultaneously to Correa offering Snowden asylum in his country. Hence, both initiatives were interpreted as back-to-back acts of defiance against Washington’s historical, but currently changing, influence over Latin America.

While the Snowden affair was supposed to showcase Correa as a leader who could pose a viable challenge the U.S., as the late Hugo Chávez had successively (and successfully) done, the Ecuadorian leader ended up worsening his position. As Snowden waited in a Moscow airport, some of Correa’s own government officials called into question the rationality of offering him asylum. Moreover, rumors started spreading that there was concern within the Ecuadorian government that it wasWikileaks’ founder, Julian Assange, who was the puppet master and was coordinating Snowden’s trip to Quito. (Assange himself has been living in Ecuador’s embassy in London for over a year to avoid a possible extradition to Sweden).

Given this complicated situation, VSA’s staff will certainly have their hands full if they aim to improve Washington-Quito relations. According to reports, the contract between the Ecuadorian government and this D.C.-based PR firm will last six months and will cost $300,000. The public relations company’s goal is to “provide counsel to the Embassy of Ecuador on strengthening the Embassy’s ties to the United States government and relevant U.S. institutions.”

Since Snowden did not manage to fly to Ecuador, there is room for improving diplomatic relations between the two governments, particularly as media attention has quickly switched gears to other Western Hemispheric issues (it’s currently fixated in as the North Korea-bound ship that was stopped in Panama, carrying Cuban weapons). Van Scoyoc will probably want to lobby key U.S. government officials that handle commercial issues — such as the new U.S. Trade Representative,Michael Froman — and highlight the advantages of continuing trade ties with the South American nation. Imports of agricultural and nursery products (particularly flowers) to the U.S. will probably be one of the cornerstones of renewed bilateral relations, should VSA be successful.

But if the Snowden affair and the hire of a D.C.-headquartered PR firm have shown anything, it is the lack of consistency in Ecuador’s foreign policy. These recent contradictory decisions make analysts and scholars alike wonder exactly how Ecuador’s foreign policy decisions are being formulated. What kind of advice is Correa receiving from his foreign minister Ricardo Patiño, or from his ambassador to the U.S., Nathalie Cely? Indeed, even as ATPDEA was falling apart, Cely published an op-ed in the Huffington Post this past June discussing (and generally advocating for) U.S.-Ecuador trade relations. That’s what you call a mixed message.

If Correa was hoping that offering Snowden asylum would be a milestone in his presidential term and would cement his international pedigree within Latin America and the ALBA bloc, he made a severe tactical miscalculation. He’s laying out a hefty chunk of change to help rectify that error. But every day that his administration delays rebuilding a unified foreign-policy message is going to cost him even more.

VOXXI:Why is Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa granting Edward Snowden asylum?

Why is Ecuador's President Rafael Correa granting Edward Snowden Asylum
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
June 25, 2013
Originally published: http://www.voxxi.com/why-ecuador-edward-snowden-asylum/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=jo

Edward Snowden, the whistleblower who publicized a surveillance program carried out by the National Security Agency (NSA), may spend his immediate future in Ecuador, which has agreed to grant him asylum.

This recent development has put the small South American nation at the center of the global media, something akin to what happened in June 2012, when Quito granted asylum to Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

What is the logic behind Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa’s recent foreign policy decisions, particularly his granting asylum to individuals such as Snowden?

A Collision Course?

Correa’s lengthy presidency (he was first elected in 2006) has been characterized by his recurrent clashes with Washington and his intention to distance his county from U.S. influence. The country made global media headlines in 2012 when it granted asylum to Julian Assange, founder of the website Wikileaks and wanted by the Swedish government on charges of sexual assault.

Assange, an Australian citizen, has been living in the Ecuadorian embassy in London for the past year, and it is unclear if he will leave the embassy anytime soon.

Now, Ecuador may be the future home of Edward Snowden. Snowden is currently in Moscow, where he should have boarded a flight that would have taken him to Havana, Cuba and then to Ecuador. However, the American whistleblower reportedly was not on his scheduled flight to Cuba.

The Edward Snowden affair is not the first time Washington and Quito have clashed. Back in 2009, President Correa refused to renew an agreement that allowed the U.S. military to operate a base in Manta. This base had been a critical cornerstone of Washington’s anti-drug operations in South America.

Most recently, Ecuador declared its intention to leave the Inter-American Defense Board (IADB), which is based in downtown Washington. The IADB is an autonomous agency within the Organization of American States, which has been historically critiqued for being Washington’s watchdog over the Western Hemisphere.

Quito justifies its decision by arguing that Ecuador must focus its multilateral defense relations on fellow South American nations, particularly via the Union of South American Nations.

Although Quito has decided to leave the IADB, it is simultaneously trying to influence other Western Hemisphere agencies. Namely, Ecuador recently put forth suggestions for major reforms within the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights which included moving the Commissions’ headquarters from Washington to Argentina.

Correa takes Center Stage

The question is: Why did Correa accept Edward Snowden when he knew the United States would disapprove? The South American leader was re-elected this past February with a comfortable margin – he obtained 56 percent of the vote while his closest opponent, Guillermo Lasso, obtained only 23 percent.

This striking victory (which suggests that he is supported by the majority of the population) may have emboldened him to execute other aggressive foreign policy decisions. Even before granting asylum to Assange and Snowden, Correa was regarded as having an anti-Washington ideology. Recent events only further reinforce this view.

Nevertheless, Ecuador is a small country with limited natural resources to make it a global economic powerhouse. It does possess significant quantities of oil, which has helped the country survive the global financial crisis.

Ecuadorian financial officials have continuously praised the country’s economic growth in recent years, but while economic stability affords Correa the luxury of focusing on foreign policy instead of domestic economic issues, his country’s oil reserves are not abundant enough to be utilized as a diplomatic weapon to gain allies, like the late Hugo Chavez did in Venezuela.

The extent to which Ecuador is isolating itself from the international community is debatable. Certainly, Washington and countries across Europe will not look upon the decision to grant asylum to Julian Assange and Edward Snowden with friendly eyes.

One can only wonder how Ecuador’s foreign policy is being debated in Quito, and what type of advice Correa is receiving from his ministerial cabinet, including the minister of foreign affairs, Ricardo Patiño, and diplomatic corps when it comes to his recent decisions.

On the other hand, such bold moves that upset “el imperio” (as the United States is commonly labeled) will likely make the nations of ALBA (Chavez’s pet project)—including Bolivia, Cuba, and Venezuela—declare their diplomatic support for Ecuador. In a March meeting, ALBA nations expressed their support for Ecuador in its ongoing dispute with the oil company Chevron.

It is likely that La Paz, Havana, and Caracas will similarly display their support for Correa’s decision to accept Snowden.

At the same time, it is debatable to what extent Washington will be able to exercise pressure on Ecuador for its role in the Edward Snowden scandal. Washington could push for some kind of trade sanction, but Correa clearly has little interest in cementing trade relations with the United States, as Quito is seeking more integration with fellow ALBA states.

For example, this past April, ALBA’s members came together for a summit in Guayaquil to discuss further integration initiatives, such as the group’s virtual currency (the Sucre), and the creation of a new agency, Eco ALBA, to promote financial aid between the bloc’s members.

Understandably, future analyzes will debate whether the Ecuadorian president should be regarded as Chavez’s successor, and if he is indeed actively trying to embrace this role. While Correa is not trying to become the new Chavez, he is nonetheless trying to make a mark and give the impression that his country is no “pushover.”

But because Ecuador is not profiting in any real way from accepting Snowden, other than by angering the United States even further, the real question here is who is formulating Ecuador’s foreign policy – is it created by a consensus of senior policymakers, or solely by Correa.

Read more: http://www.voxxi.com/why-ecuador-edward-snowden-asylum/#ixzz2XFvg7bPK