E-International Relations: "Opinion – Moldova: Between Ambitious Plans and Present-Day Challenges"

 

 

 

"Moldova: Between Ambitious Plans and Present-Day Challenges"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Opinion

E-International Relations

8 May 2026

Published: https://www.e-ir.info/2026/05/08/opinion-moldova-between-ambitious-plans-and-present-day-challenges/ 

 Resolving the Republic of Moldova’s separatist issue and joining the European Union are the primary objectives of President Maia Sandu and her administration. Yet, the war between Russia and Ukraine is a constant reminder for Chisinau that there are serious, ever-present day threats to the country’s stability. Russian drones, water pollution, and energy security are daily threats and concerns for the Moldovan population and government; these challenges could also delay Moldova’s preparations for European Union membership. While Moldova has not become a target of the hostilities, incidents continue to occur. Specifically, suspected Russian uncrewed aerial systems (UAS, commonly known as drones) and missiles have been detected flying through Moldovan airspace, while some drones have crashed on Moldovan territory – a reminder that the frontlines of the war are not far away.

Geopolitical Monitor: Oil Dependency in Wartime: Malaysia and the Iran War

 

 

"Oil Dependency in Wartime: Malaysia and the Iran War"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Geopolitical Monitor 

9 April 2026 

Published: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/oil-dependency-in-wartime-malaysia-and-the-iran-war/ 

 

The war in Iran appears to be paused, for now, as the United States and the Islamic Republic have announced a two-week ceasefire. It is unclear whether this ceasefire will hold or if hostilities will resume. In the meantime, countries that rely on energy and other resources from the Middle East will be quick to send their tankers and cargo ships across the Strait of Hormuz to replenish their much-needed energy reserves at home.

Curiously, just prior to the announcement of the ceasefire (and US President Trump’s threat of annihilating Iran as a country), when the Strait was still closed, the government of Malaysia announced an agreement with Tehran to allow the safe passage of Malaysia-bound ships through the contested Strait. This development warrants discussion to understand how governments have navigated this tense situation and the importance of energy diversification.

Zona Militar: "Polaris develops a new MRZR Alpha, works on international orders" / "Polaris desarrolla un nuevo MRZR Alpha y trabaja en pedidos internacionales"

 

"Polaris develops a new MRZR Alpha, works on international orders"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Zona Militar

15 May 2025

Published:  https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2025/05/15/polaris-develops-a-new-mrzr-alpha-works-on-international-orders/

As the readers of Zona Militar know, the Argentine Army recently received a batch of Polaris MRZR vehicles. Polaris is a well-known supplier of light and modular tactical vehicles to global armed forces, and ZM recently spoke with the company at the Modern Day Marine (MDM) to learn more about upcoming deliveries and projects.

"Polaris desarrolla un nuevo MRZR Alpha y trabaja en pedidos internacionales"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Zona Militar

15 de Mayo, 2025

Publicado:  https://www.zona-militar.com/2025/05/15/polaris-desarrolla-un-nuevo-mrzr-alpha-y-trabaja-en-pedidos-internacionales/

Como saben los lectores de Zona Militar, el Ejército Argentino recibió recientemente un lote de vehículos Polaris MRZR. Polaris es un conocido proveedor de vehículos tácticos ligeros y modulares para las fuerzas armadas globales, y ZM habló recientemente con la empresa en Modern Day Marine (MDM) para conocer más sobre las próximas entregas y proyectos.

 

Geopolitical Monitor: "Not-So-Nearshoring: The Case for a US-Uzbekistan Critical Minerals Partnership"

 

"Not-So-Nearshoring: The Case for a US-Uzbekistan Critical Minerals Partnership"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Opinion

Geopolitical Monitor

8 January, 2025

Published: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/not-so-nearshoring-the-case-for-a-us-uzbekistan-critical-minerals-partnership/

For the United States, obtaining access to critical minerals (CMs) and rare earth elements (REEs) is a strategy now associated with nearshoring. However, Washington is also engaging Uzbekistan, as the Central Asian nation is wealthy with CMs. The final quarter of 2024 saw several high-level meetings and agreements between Washington and Tashkent, which deserve more significant discussion.

Geopolitical Monitor: "Wales Going Green(er) with Wind Energy"

 

"Wales Going Green(er) with Wind Energy"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Opinion

Geopolitical Monitor

13 August, 2024

Originally published: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/wales-going-greener-with-wind-energy/

While Wales remains dependent on fossil fuels, Cardiff has made significant improvements in the past decade to become greener and achieve net zero by 2050; an upcoming milestone is generating 70% of its electricity consumption from renewable energy by 2030. Thankfully, the country’s turbulent domestic politics – First Minister Vaughan Gething resigned in July — have not affected the government’s long-term strategy of becoming greener.

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The Oxus Society: "Can Kazakhstan Decarbonise the Economy?"

 

"Can Kazakhstan decarbonise the economy?"

The Oxus Society for Central Asia n Affairs

15 March 2024

On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9Q2F-KJKqQ

"Can Kazakhstan Decarbonise the Economy? We engage with a panel of specialists to scrutinize the challenges obstructing Kazakhstan's path to achieving its renewable energy objectives. Additionally, we'll delve into potential strategies that might be employed to navigate these obstacles effectively. 

On the panel 

- Maximilian Hess (FPRI) 

- Wilder Alejandro Sanchez (Second Floor Strategies) 

- Madina Junussova (Uni of Central Asia) 

Hosted by Michael Hilliard Taped on the 15th of March, 2024.

The Diplomat: Central Asia’s Rare Earths May Fuel Energy Transition

 "Central Asia’s Rare Earths May Fuel Energy Transition"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Crossroads Asia

The Diplomat

15 December, 2023

Originally published: https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/central-asias-rare-earths-may-fuel-energy-transition/

If rare earth elements are the crude oil of the 21st century, then Central Asia and Mongolia may be the Saudi Arabias of these strategic minerals. 

The COP28 climate summit in Dubai produced an agreement that aims to triple the use of renewable energy, double energy efficiency, and “speed up the transition to a cleaner and healthier economy” by 2030, so the world can meet its Paris Agreement goals to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This energy transition cannot be fueled by optimism and zeal alone. Rare earth elements (REEs) are required to fuel this transition and are vital for the growth of every green industry and emerging technology including, electric vehicles, robotics,  drones, AI, and advanced computing.

 

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The Diplomat: "Could Kazakhstan’s Uranium Exports to the US Increase? "

 

"Could Kazakhstan’s Uranium Exports to the US Increase?"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Crossroads Asia

The Diplomat

07 July, 2023

Originally published: https://thediplomat.com/2023/07/could-kazakhstans-uranium-exports-to-the-us-increase/

If imports of Russian uranium are blocked by the U.S., Kazakhstan, already a top source, could stand to gain.

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Shephard Media: "Black Knight identifies US opportunities for expeditionary fuel cell"

 

"Black Knight identifies US opportunities for expeditionary fuel cell"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Land Warfare

Shephard Media

28 June, 2023

Originally published: https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/landwarfareintl/black-knight-drums-up-us-interest-for-expeditionary-fuel-cell/

Black Knight Group sees the US Marine Corps' expeditionary light vehicles as an application for the SFC Energy EMILY 3000 fuel cell.

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Geopolitical Monitor: "Bolivia’s Lithium Reserves: Unfulfilled Ambitions, New Promises"

 

"Bolivia’s Lithium Reserves: Unfulfilled Ambitions, New Promises"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Situation Reports

Geopolitical Monitor

13 April, 2023

Originally published: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/bolivias-lithium-reserves-unfulfilled-ambitions-new-promises/

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Geopolitical Monitor "Moldova and Türkiye: Keeping Friends Close"

 

"Moldova and Türkiye: Keeping Friends Close"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Situation Report

Geopolitical Monitor

11 January 2023

Originally published: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/moldova-and-turkiye-keeping-friends-close/

There is a tendency to view the Republic of Moldova’s foreign policy as solely focused on Europe, the United States, or Russia. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s decision to apply for European Union membership have tended to reinforce that idea. However, Chisinau has one vital partner that does not fall in either category: the Republic of Türkiye.

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E-IR "Energy Security: Moldova’s Quest for New Suppliers"

 

"Energy Security: Moldova’s Quest for New Suppliers"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Opinion

e-International Relations

12 December, 2022

Originally published: https://www.e-ir.info/2022/12/12/opinion-energy-security-moldovas-quest-for-new-suppliers/

Moldovan President Maia Sandu has conducted various international visits and hosted leaders from multiple states in recent months. Due to the war in Ukraine and tense relations with Moscow, Chisinau is focused on reducing its dependency on Russian gas while simultaneously securing alternative suppliers. Hence, we are witnessing the creation of Moldova’s new energy security strategy based on energy diplomacy.

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The Diplomat: The Trans-Caspian Corridor: Kazakhstan’s Silk Road?

 

"The Trans-Caspian Corridor: Kazakhstan’s Silk Road?" 

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez and Kamila Auyezova

Crossroads Asia

The Diplomat

 12 May, 2022

Originally published: https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/the-trans-caspian-corridor-kazakhstans-silk-road/

 Kazakhstan and the Caucasus nations are looking at the Trans-Caspian transportation corridor with renewed vigor given the war in Ukraine.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is having drastic consequences on global geopolitics. Even more, international sanctions against the Russian government are also affecting Russia’s neighbors. Countries that traditionally rely on Russia as a transportation corridor for goods to reach the European market are now looking for alternatives. This is the case for Kazakhstan. Nur-Sultan is now turning to the Caucasus not only to solidify friendships and partnerships but also to support the Trans-Caspian corridor, which has not yet reached its full potential.

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Shephard Media: AUSA 2021: Customisable power management aids EOD

 

"AUSA 2021: Customisable power management aids EOD"

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez

Shephard Media

October 11, 2021

Originally published: https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/landwarfareintl/ausa-2021-customisable-power-management-aids-eod/

 Galvion is providing a solution to recharge batteries of EOD equipment for the US Army — and other potential applications for the Squad Power Manager include powering radios in Colombian helicopters.

Military power and data management solutions provider Galvion has obtained a $5.8 million contract to supply its Squad Power Manager (SPM) 622 kit to the US Army.

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The Diplomat: The Green Steppe? Kazakhstan and Its Green Energy Future

"The Green Steppe? Kazakhstan and Its Green Energy Futur"
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
The Diplomat
February 26, 2020
Originally published: https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/the-green-steppe-kazakhstan-and-its-green-energy-future/

New data provided by the Kazakhstani government shows that the Central Asian state is continuing its trend toward green energy to meet the demands of its 18 million citizens. While the country will continue to rely on gas and oil for the foreseeable future, even slow switches to green energy are noteworthy at a time when the global effects of climate change become more and more alarming (case in point, the ongoing heat wave in Antarctica).

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IPD: Kazakhstan Expands its Role in Nuclear Security Issues

"Kazakhstan Expands its Role in Nuclear Security Issues"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
International Policy Digest
17 March, 2018
Originally published: https://intpolicydigest.org/2018/03/17/kazakhstan-expands-its-role-in-nuclear-security-issues/

On 2 March, Kazakhstan signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), becoming the 57th state to do so. This move completes a first quarter of 2018 which has been very important for Kazakh foreign policy, as in January the country held the rotating presidency of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), the first Central Asian state to achieve this. Also in January, President Nursultan Nazarbayev met with President Donald Trump in Washington DC to promote U.S.-Kazakh relations.

While global nuclear disarmament remains a utopia, Astana’s signature of the TPNW is an important development and should be put in the context of said country’s nuclear security initiatives and its nuclear energy industry.

Promoting Nuclear Security

It is well known that the Central Asian nation inherited nuclear-tipped missiles after the collapse of the Soviet Union; Astana would go on to dismantle said weapons systems and facilities and joined agreements like the TPNW. The other post-Soviet Central Asian states carried out similar policies and nowadays there is a Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone treaty.

What is also worth highlighting is Kazakhstan’s interest in promoting nuclear security past its borders. President Nazarbayev has declared, “Kazakhstan’s non-nuclear status can serve as a guiding example for other states. I’m speaking from my personal experience. We created and strengthened our independent country, achieved high international authority, namely, by renouncing nuclear weapons and receiving guarantees of non-aggression from nuclear powers. We urge all countries to follow our example. We urged Iran at the time, now we call on North Korea. Nuclear bombs and missiles is not power.”

While it is unlikely that North Korea (the upcoming meeting between the North Korean and U.S. leaders notwithstanding), and other nuclear states, will give up their nuclear armament anytime soon, Astana’s interest in promoting nuclear security, as well as the recent signing of the TPNW, are commendable initiatives.

Astana, Washington and Nuclear Issues
Interestingly, there has been one development in Astana-Washington relations that deals with nuclear security: on May 2017, a Nuclear Security Training Center (NSTC) opened in the Central Asian state, a joint initiative between Astana and the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration. A 15 May 2017 press release by the NNSA explains that the center will be utilized to “train nuclear facility personnel in security disciplines, including physical protection systems, nuclear material accounting and control systems, response forces, and secure transportation.”

The two governments also signed a nuclear energy cooperation agreement in August. Additionally, Presidents Trump and Nazarbayev praised the 2017 inauguration of a reserve bank for low enriched uranium in the Central Asian state. This initiative “seeks to decrease the risk of nuclear enrichment technology proliferation,” said a White House statement.

Meanwhile, Dr. Richard Weitz from the Hudson Institute in Washington DC explains that “the hope is that countries pursuing peaceful nuclear energy programs will borrow LEU fuel from banks to avoid the ecological and economic expense of manufacturing their own nuclear fuel through uranium enrichment, a technology that can be misused to make nuclear weapons.” In other words, Kazakhstan’s LEU bank could become a centerpiece in the quest for nuclear non-proliferation.

In spite of the current positive momentum after several high-profile visits, it is important to note that U.S.-Kazakh relations over nuclear energy are not free of tensions. Namely, U.S.-based uranium producing companies Energy Fuels and Ur-Energy have petitioned Washington “to look into whether imports from dominant uranium producers, like Russia [and Kazakhstan] pose a national security risk.” In reality, this request has less to do with “national security” in the traditional sense of the term and has to do more with the fact that the U.S. imports large quantities of uranium, from producers like Kazakhstan, for domestic consumption, which limits the profits of U.S.-based companies. It will be interesting to see if this request, which falls under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, progresses and if it affects U.S. imports of Kazakh uranium, and what effect, if any, could this have on bilateral relations.

Final Thoughts
Kazakhstan’s decision to sign the TPNW is a commendable initiative towards global nonproliferation although, sadly, countries that possess nuclear weapons are in no hurry to get rid of them. More important though is Astana’s growing role in nuclear affairs and its rapprochement with Washington on nuclear security and energy issues.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect those of any institutions with which the author is associated.

Entrevista: Argentina y Rusia se distanciarán durante el Gobierno de Macri, afirma especialista

"Argentina y Rusia se distanciarán durante el Gobierno de Macri, afirma especialista"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Sputnik Mundo America Latina
Febrero 15, 2016
Originally published: http://mundo.sputniknews.com/americalatina/20160215/1056790777/argentina-rusia-macri-relaciones.html

Argentina priorizará las relaciones con Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea, por lo que no será un aliado de Moscú, como sí lo fue durante la presidencia de Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, dijo a Sputnik Nóvosti el analista Alejandro W. Sánchez, quien aseguró que el comercio entre ambos países no se verá afectado.

"Rusia ha perdido Argentina, que será un socio externo, un país amigo, pero no aliado como durante la presidencia de Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2007-2015)", señaló Sánchez, analista en seguridad internacional y especialista en Paz Internacional y Resolución de Conflictos por la American University.

No obstante, el comercio exterior entre ambos países no se verá afectado porque Argentina seguirá interesado en vender sus productos a Moscú, "aunque las relaciones diplomáticas y las alianzas van a cambiar drásticamente", indicó.

Según la Cámara de Comercio e Industria Argentino Rusa, el intercambio comercial entre ambos países durante 2014 alcanzó los 2.122 millones de dólares.

Para mejorar la economía de Argentina, el presidente Mauricio Macri "se acercará a potencias mundiales económicas como EEUU y Europa Occidental", que apoyan un comercio más liberal.

"Con la economía estancada, Argentina no cancelará ningún tratado comercial con Rusia, pero sí puede diversificar los mercados para conseguir más inversiones, y desde luego, buscará relaciones preferenciales", explicó el especialista.

Según anunció el Gobierno argentino, el presidente Macri se encontrará con su homólogo estadounidense Barack Obama durante la Cumbre sobre Seguridad Nuclear que se celebrará en Washington entre el 31 de marzo y el 1 de abril.

"Éste será el primer paso para mejorar las relaciones entre Argentina y Estados Unidos", observó Sánchez, autor de un estudio sobre las relaciones entre Buenos Aires y Moscú para el Centro Argentino de Estudios Internacionales (CAEI).

Macri ya ha manifestado su interés en modernizar el Mercosur y acercarse a los países de la Alianza del Pacífico, "que tienen una economía más abierta al libre comercio", destacó.

En este contexto, la conversación telefónica que Macri mantuvo en diciembre con el presidente ruso Vladímir Putin, debe entenderse como una llamada protocolar, "no amigable como hubiera sido entre Putin y Cristina Fernández".

Inversiones

Uno de los proyectos que prevalecerá en Argentina será la construcción de la represa hidroeléctrica Chihuido, en la provincia de Neuquén (sudoeste).

En abril de 2015, Fernández de Kirchner firmó con Putin un acuerdo de asociación estratégica por el que se acordó la concreción de esta obra, pero el nuevo Gobierno argentino no ha confirmado todavía la participación de Moscú.

Tal y como anunció a Sputik Nóvosti el jefe de la Representación Comercial de la Federación Rusa en Argentina, Serguéi Derkach, el Gobierno de Putin está interesado en resolver un acuerdo para financiar el proyecto.

"La geopolítica interesa a cualquier presidente, y Argentina necesita la represa para tener más energía", acordó Sánchez.

La construcción de Chihuido seguirá adelante, aunque Rusia puede que no sea el primer candidato para financiar la represa, consideró el especialista.

Países como China o Estados Unidos podrían entrar en competencia para hacerse cargo del proyecto.

"Macri ya no tiene esa alianza ideológica como la tuvo Cristina Fernández con Moscú", destacó.

Otro de los proyectos pendientes entre ambos países es la edificación de un nuevo reactor en la central nuclear de Atucha, ubicada en la provincia de Buenos Aires.

Según Sánchez, este asunto es más complejo para Argentina, por tratarse de una iniciativa más larga e inestable, que requiere una gran inversión.

"Macri debería confirmar primero si quiere construir ese reactor para luego analizar si Rusia se encargaría del proyecto", explicó.

El mandatario argentino acaba de cumplir dos meses en el Gobierno, por lo que habrá que esperar a la Cumbre sobre Seguridad Nuclear en Estados Unidos para que anuncie sus intenciones en torno a la política atómica que desarrollará el país, dijo Sánchez.

Peru This Week: The Camisea Gas Project: From Peru to the World

"The Camisea Gas Project: From Peru to the World"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Peru This Week
May 19, 2014
Originally published: http://www.peruthisweek.com/news-the-camisea-gas-project-from-peru-to-the-world-102996

On May 21-22, the Institute of the Americas will host the XXIII La Jolla 2014 Energy Conference in La Jolla, California. The two-day event will be a chance for experts to discuss the status, and the future, of energy production and consumption across the hemisphere.

Given the focus of this event, it comes as no surprise that Peru’s energy industry will receive star treatment at this prestigious conference. Namely, on Thursday, May 22, there will be a morning panel entitled “Spotlight on the Camisea Project at 10: Reflections and the outlook for Peru’s: historic natural gas project and the country’s hydrocarbon sector.” Attending will be representatives of Perupetro and Pluspetrol, as well as the CEO of Gran Tierra Energy Inc., a Canadian international oil and gas exploration and production company.

It makes sense that Peru will be discussed at length at La Jolla, and that there will be a special focus on the Camisea gas project. Over the past decade, Peru has enjoyed one of the most vibrant economies in Latin America. The country is a member of the Pacific Alliance as well as the Trans Pacific Partnership, a grandiose attempt at bringing major economies from Latin America and the Asia Pacific region, as well as the U.S., under one free trade area.

The Camisea Gas Project: The gem on the top of the Inca’s crown
The Camisea project stands out as the gem on top of the Inca nation’s crown when it comes to energy-related initiatives. Located in the Peruvian highlands, not far from Cusco, Camisea is an area rich with natural gas.

The gas field in Camisea was first discovered in 1986 and it began producing in 2004. According to the website Hydrocarbons-technology.com, the energy project cost US$2.7billion and made, “Peru a gas-rich nation with royalties of US$34 billion expected over the 30 year duration of the project.” The Camisea gas field is situated in the San Martin reservoir in the Amazon rainforest and is connected to the Port of Pisco via the Camisea pipeline.

In December 2013, the Peruvian Ministry of Energy and Mines reported that it is now believed that there are 2.6 trillion of cubic feet of natural gas in Camisea. The ministry is hopeful that these estimates mean that, apart from being exported, the gas can also be utilized for the Gasoducto Sur Peruano (GSP). The GSP is an ambitious project to build two thermal energy plants that will provide electricity to the southern part of the Andean nation.

Controversy of the Camisea Project
Nevertheless, the Camisea project has not been without controversy. Over the past years, there have been a plethora of protests against it. One major concern is that the gas itself is benefiting consumers abroad while companies are getting rich, but the people around Camisea do not benefit from the natural gas. Moreover, this extractive industry has destroyed part of the local ecosystem around the Camisea River. In 2010, hundreds of people in Quillabamba, in the Cusco region not far from Camisea, protested against the export of the Camisea gas.

Control over the revenue from the Camisea exports is a source of tension as well. In 2013, there were major protests in the province of La Convencion, in the Cuzco region, over congressional proposals that would have altered the budget that the area receives from the income country obtains from the Camisea. Castro Melgarejo, mayor of Quillabamba, where the protests took place, accused Lima of trying to take control of gas export income destined to the nation’s provinces, specifically Cusco.

Finally, this March, a delegation of indigenous Peruvians belonging to the Kirigueti community arrived in Cuzco to protest against the potential expansion of Camisea’s Lot 88. The gas in Lot 88 comes from two gas fields to the north and south of the River Camisea. A February 25 commentary in the renowned British daily The Guardian explains that, “three of the four producing well locations in Lot 88 are in the reserve and, according to the state oil and gas agency Perupetro, Lot 88 accounted for 43% of Peru’s natural gas output in 2012 and 43% between January to November 2013.”

Representatives of the Kirigueti declared to the Peruvian daily La Republica that all 20 thousand of their people are against Camisea’s expansion, as living conditions for them have worsened since the project started a decade ago. Moreover, they declared that the financial wealth that the Peruvian government enjoys attributed to the Camisea has not helped indigenous Peruvians that live around the gas field.

It is debatable to what extent the aforementioned representatives from Perupetro, Pluspetrol, or Gran Tierra Energy will acknowledge the demands of Peruvians that have been affected by the operations of the Camisea gas project. Hopefully, the XXIII La Jolla 2014 Energy Conference will meaningfully address the complex issues surrounding the Camisea project rather than simply praising its accomplishments while ignoring its shortcomings.

VOXXI: Colombia’s depleting oil reserves

Colombia's depleting oil reserves
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
December 10, 2013
Originally published: http://voxxi.com/2013/12/10/colombias-depleting-oil-reserves/

Amylkar Acosta, Colombia’s Minister of Mining and Energy, has stated that the country’s oil reserves currently amount to around 2,200 billion barrels. However, a division of the Colombian Ministry of Energy, the Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, argues that unless new oil deposits are found, the country will run out of oil by the end of the decade.

In late November, Minister Acosta made the troubling declaration that the South American nation’s oil reserves are running out. Unless new deposits are found, the country’s reserves will be depleted within the next six to seven years. This will cause Colombia to lose its self-sufficiency when it comes to energy.

Colombia’s oil reserves

Acosta has not attempted to disguise the dire status of the situation, as he has declared that Colombia’s energy situation is “severely precarious.”

This is not the first time that Acosta has warned of increasing energy-related costs in the near future for his country. In a September 2013 interview with the Colombian daily El Pais, he categorically declared that the era of “cheap oil in the entire world is over. We have gone from an era of plentiful, cheap and reliable energy sources to a costly era.”

Concerns about Colombia’s oil production and reserves have been discussed widely by the Colombian media. A June 2012 article in the renowned Semana argues that “even though Colombia is not an oil-nation, it depends a lot on this industry.” The article also highlights that up to 40% of foreign direct investment in 2011 was directed to this industry.

Besides the obvious fact that a non-renewable resource is becoming scarce as a result of excessive extraction, the aforementioned Semana suggests that other issues are affecting oil production in the country.

The article mentions protests, the potential for higher taxes on oil industries, and a possible delay in licensing companies to extract oil as reasons why there have been inadequate exploration initiatives for new oil deposits.

Moreover, the article points out the glaring lack of security in oil infrastructure in the country. For example, in 2011 there were 84 reported attacks against oil pipelines and trucks that transport oil.

In fact, as recently as this past December 3, the government accused FARC guerrillas of using explosives to damage the Caño Limon-Coveñas network of oil pipelines in the Norte de Santander department. The pipeline measures 780km and goes to the port of Coveñas, on Colombia’s Caribbean coast, from which it is exported.

Impacts for the future

There is already speculation of how the end to oil deposits could affect the country’s economy.

The website ColombiaReports.co explained that imports increased from “$4.68 billion for September 2012 to $5.15 billion for September 2013, according to a report released by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE).” The principal contribution behind this rise was the 43.8% increase in the import of refined fuels and mining products, a measure enacted by the government in response to major strikes and attacks by Colombian guerrillas on oil pipelines.

Switching from being a net exporter of oil to an importer would place the country at the mercy of international oil prices and fluctuations within oil-producing nations, such as the perpetually unstable Arab world.

One possibility for the near future is that Colombia could approach neighboring nations for oil imports. For example, Venezuela is one of the world’s major oil producers. According to the website of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Nations), “Venezuela’s oil revenues account for about 95 per cent of export earnings [and] The oil and gas sector is around 25 per cent of gross domestic product.”

Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that even the mighty Venezuela’s oil reserves may be diminishing as well, as “Venezuela’s annual oil production has declined since [the late Hugo] Chavez took office in 1999 by roughly a quarter, and oil exports have dropped by nearly a half,” according to a March 2013 article in the New York Times.

Moreover, as this author explained in an August commentary for VOXXI, Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa has decided to drill in the Yasuni Park for additional oil.

The quest for energy resources may also promote inter-state tensions. For example, Colombia has been involved in a maritime dispute with Nicaragua over the control of a number of islands and the sea in the Caribbean. The two countries went to the International Court of Justice to seek a third-party resolution, which was handed in 2012, but tensions remain. Specifically, Colombia has recently accused Nicaragua of attempting to carry out offshore explorations for oil in Colombia’s sea.

A turn to green energy?

If indeed Colombia’s oil reserves may be gone by the end of this decade, besides a reliance on energy imports, we may also see the country turn to green energy initiatives.

There are occasional reports in the Colombian media about projects regarding alternative energies. For example, a June 2013 article in El Colombiano discusses how Colombia’s rivers could be used to create hydroelectric power, but this has yet to happen due to a lack of incentives from the government.

In fact, during a June 2013 speech at an energy conference in Bogota,Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos mentioned that Colombia’s hydroelectric potential is six times the global average and almost three times the Latin American average.

If Minister Acosta’s worst-case scenario does come true, this crisis may be the incentive needed for Bogota to have its own green revolution and capitalize on its potential for hydroelectricity.

Entrevista: Precio de la Gasolina / Energia Verde

El Precio de la Gasolina / Energia Verde

Telemundo - Washington DC

Marzo 6, 2012

Video disponible: http://bit.ly/xFfa2Q ( a lado derecho abajo)