Blouin: Beat - PANAMAX 2015: Protecting a maritime choke point

"PANAMX 2015: Protecting A Maritime Choke Point'
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin Beat: World
August 13, 2015
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2015/08/13/panamax-2015-protecting-a-maritime-choke-point/

The multinational military exercises known as PANAMAX 2015 recently came to a successful close. The exercises brought together military units from 16 countries, mostly from the Western Hemisphere (i.e., the U.S. and regional partner nations) as well as some of Washington’s extra-hemispheric allies. According to a U.S. Army press release, PANAMAX is “a preemptive effort to respond to any request from the government of Panama to protect and guarantee safe passage of traffic through the Panama Canal.” As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, more goods traverse a limited number of maritime pathways, such as the canal, hence it is more important than ever to protect these “maritime choke points,” asCaptain Alfred Thayer Mahan called them in the 19th century.

PANAMAX are annual exercises sponsored by the U.S. South Command (SOUTHCOM), the branch of the military that oversees most of Latin America and the Caribbean, and are aimed at responding to crises in the Panama Canal. The most recent version of the exercise was divided into two phases: Phase I Multi-national Forces South and Phase II Combined Land Forces Component, which took place from June 19-27 and from July 27-5, respectively. A total of 16 nations (including the U.S.) had units participate in the exercises, including Latin American states like Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Panama and Peru; as well as Jamaica and the United Kingdom.

According to Lt. Col. Thomas Small, Chief of Operational Exercises, U.S. Army South, “the primary objective of the exercise is to demonstrate the capability of participating nations to conduct coalition operations at the operational level while under the auspices of a United Nations Security Council Resolution.” For their part, Panamanian government officials have praised the exercises as they are aimed at protecting the stability of the Canal.

Precisely what kind of crisis could affect the Panama Canal is worth discussing. The country has two neighbors; one is Costa Rica, an army-less nation that has promoted a pro-peace and pro-negotiations foreign policy. It is similarly difficult to anticipate a deterioration of relations between Panama and its other neighbor, Colombia. Bogota and Panama City have been recently at odds over Panama’s tax haven status, but there has been no incident that justifies open warfare.

As for Hollywood-like scenarios of violent movements taking control of the Panama Canal, it is worth playing devil’s advocate. It is true that Colombian insurgent groups and Mexican drug cartels operate in the area. For example, the FARC is present in the Darien Gap while Mexican cartels like Sinaloa and Los Zetas have operated in the Central American country for years. Moreover, there have been cases of regional insurgent movements taking over government buildings: in 1996, 14 fighters from the Peruvian MRTA held hostages in the Japanese embassy in Peru for 126 days. Similarly, the Colombian insurgent movement M19 took over the Colombian Supreme Court in 1985. Unlike the Peruvian incident, the M19 only lasted two days in the court before Colombian security forces stormed the building.

In other words, there are some regional precedents and current presence of criminal syndicates to justify the training for an incident involving the integrity and/or control Panama Canal itself or its overseeing agency, the Panama Authority. (Due to space issues, I will forego discussing the possibility of a multinational operation to retake control of the Canal à la 1956 Suez Canal crisis, should an authoritarian ruler like General Manuel Noriega come to power).

While a text or e-mail can go from a tablet to a smartphone in an instant, the actual machines that people utilize take longer to ship around the world in bulk quantities. The Canal itself is currently undergoing an expansion to accommodate larger vessels, hence increasing the importance of the international community in securing the critical maritime pathway at all times.

As a caveat to this analysis, it is amusing to hypothesize if a different set of similar exercises will be necessary in the near future as Nicaragua and a Hong Kong-based firm are planning to construct a new trans-oceanic canal across Nicaraguan territory. Should this initiative come to fruition, there would be another one of Mahan’s “choke points” in Central America that will require protection, not just by the local government but also by the international community. If the Nicaraguan Canal is ever built, SOUTHCOM may have to sponsor NICARAGUAX military exercises.

VOXXI: Protests against Nicaragua’s ambitious canal

"Protests Against Nicaragua's Ambitious Canal"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
October 26, 2014
Originally published:  http://voxxi.com/2014/10/26/protests-nicaragua-ambitious-canal/

The Nicaraguan government, with Chinese aid, is about to begin a historic project: the construction of a new inter-oceanic Canal. But sections of the Nicaraguan population are discontent and protesting against this grand scheme. While Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega remains fairly popular, citizen restlessness over the Canal may cost him dearly.

Ortega has been labeled as a “vende patria” (“beytrayer of the homeland”) and that is not a nickname any head of state wants.

Growing discontent

In June 2013, Nicaragua’s National Assembly approved a deal with an obscure Hong Kong-based firm, the HKND Group, to build an inter-oceanic Canal that would rival Panama. A year later, Managua announced that construction will begin this December. The specifications of the proposed maritime corridor are: 278 kilometers in length, across the Great Lake of Nicaragua (also known as Lake Cocibolca), between 230 to 530 meters of width, and some 30 meters of depth.

This analysis will not discuss international concerns with this project (which are numerous) but rather focus on recent developments withinNicaragua. There are two major domestic concerns that are the sources of protests:

First of all, former presidential candidate Edmundo Jarquin claims that recent protests are due to governmental secrecy. Managua argues that the country’s economy will grow by 15% annually from the second year of construction onwards and it will generate between five to 50 thousand jobs. Nevertheless the government has not provided specific details about the project, such as construction timelines and potential environmental impacts.

The second reason is that Nicaraguans that live in the Canal’s proposed path will have to move. Case in point, there have been reports that HKND representatives, with Nicaraguan police officers and soldiers acting as guards, have appeared in various homes, taking measures and informing homeowners that their households will be purchased by the company.

Protests on the rise

A couple of the most recent protests occurred in early October around La Unión, located in the Región Autónoma del Atlántico Sur, RAAS, in Eastern Nicaragua. Some three thousand inhabitants marched with signs that read “The land is not for sale… Nicaragua will not give up!” as well as “Ortega: betrayer of the homeland!”

The people demanded that the construction of the Canal must not pass through their lands. In fact, an indigenous representative, Brooklyn Rivera Bryan, highlighted that the Canal’s current plan passes through a community of the Rama indigenous people, which the government should protect instead of evict.

The indigenous and afro-descendant inhabitants of the Rama y Kriol territorial government (GTR-K), located in the RAAS, are similarly concerned. A July press release in the GTR-K’s government website declares that a deep water port will be built as part of the Canal; it will be located close to the current homeland of the aforementioned Rama community, known as Bang kukuk/Punta del Aguila – the proposed construction will jeopardize the lifestyle of local inhabitants as it will destroy the local environment and biodiversity. The GTR-K press release declares that Managua has not discussed with them the potential environmental, cultural or archaeological impacts caused by construction.

SEE ALSO: When Nicaraguans leave, they usually stay closer to home

Similarly, in late September some 250 inhabitants of a community in the department of Rivas carried out a peaceful march protesting the likely evictions that the Canal will cause.  “We are fishermen and we have livestock, we cannot live in the city, we cannot take the lake and the livestock [when we move]” one local leader declared.

These protests can be tied to the aforementioned points made that Managua has not engaged in an open dialogue with citizens about the true costs of the Canal. This promotes distrust and anger.

Meanwhile, the government has generally minimized protests. When the aforementioned manifestation in Rivas was announced, a government spokesman said “we respect the people but we know that the population will end up supporting the Canal.” The government has also hinted that the population is being “manipulated” by political groups that are against the project.

Overtly ambitious dreams?

In July, Managua and HKND Group announced that the Canal will be completed by 2019. In other words, it will take half the time the U.S needed to construct the 77km-long Panama Canal (1904-1914). This is a very ambitious timeframe that may not be feasible. Some high-level Nicaraguan policymakers claim that the country is not ready to begin construction in December, as preliminary projects like building temporary housing for workers and engineers must begin first. There is also a deficit of qualified workers, including electricians and carpenters.

President Ortega currently enjoys positive approval ratings. However his popularity is being affected by opposition to the Canal by inhabitants of regions through which it will pass. Hence, he cannot afford that the Canal suffers major delays.

Nicaragua will have elections in 2016, when the Canal’s construction will be well underway. In other words, Ortega’s legacy, as well as the future of his presidency (if he runs for another re-election), is now firmly tied to the Canal.