VOXXI: Chilean President Bachelet visits Washington

"Chilean President Bachelet visits Washington"
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
June 28, 2014
Originally published: http://voxxi.com/2014/06/28/michelle-bachelet-visits-washington/

Chilean President Michelle Bachelet will meet with President Barack Obama on Monday, June 30th, as part of her brief visit to Washington. She will also speak at several organizations while in the U.S. capital.

Consolidating Washington-Santiago relations will apparently be a priority for President Bachelet during her second presidential term. The two governments certainly have plenty of issues that can bring them together.

Points of discussion

One way to view the upcoming encounter is by briefly looking at how the event has been reported in both countries.

On the one hand, the White House released a (very) brief press release on May 8. The document explains how Presidents Bachelet and Obama will discuss “[United Nations] Security Council matters, other multilateral and regional issues, and ongoing negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership.” Apart from the UNSC and the TPP negotiations, the press release is vague about specific topics as it simply mentions global security, social inclusion and free trade.

On the other hand, the Chilean media has gone to greater lengths to stress the importance of this meeting and the possible conversation points. A June 26 commentary in the Chilean daily El Mercurio explains that the meeting will allow President Bachelet to discuss her vision of Chile’s future foreign policy, broadly speaking. The commentary also examines the Trans Pacific Partnership, which will “strengthen [Chile’s] relations with Asia on the long term.” Moreover, El Mercurio highlights how, in order to decrease its oil-dependency, Chile aspires to increase import shale gas from the U.S.

Apart from her meeting with President Obama, President Bachelet will have a busy time in Washington.

On Monday, she will appear at the Brookings Institution, a major DC think tank.  The following day, in a keynote presentation at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, she will discuss “current changes in Chile’s economic policies,” as well as Chile-U.S. commercial relations. Additionally, the Organization of American States will host a Protocol Session in its DC headquarters in her honor – she will likely meet with the OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza, also a Chilean national.

Interests and counter interests

President Bachelet’s visit to Washington occurs at an interesting time. At the foreign policy level, Chile could become Washington’s new best friend in South America (Colombia notwithstanding), considering Washington’s tense relations with Brazil since the 2013 NSA revelations.

The Chilean leader recently attended a fairly successful summit of the Pacific Alliance, a group of Latin America’s most vibrant economies. By following up her trip to Mexico with another to Washington, Chile’s international pedigree will only grow.

However, while the U.S. is focused on Russia and the destabilization of Iraq, it would be shortsighted to assume that Washington does not have its own interests to bring up regarding Chile’s role in the global arena.

Chile is a non-permanent member of the UNSC until December 2015 and hence, should the U.S. want to push for a resolution within the next year and a half (i.e. regarding Syria, Iraq, or Ukraine), it would be helpful for Washington to have several UNSC members, like Santiago, on its side.

Additionally, while Chile is interested in the TPP, Santiago has resisted some of Washington’s requirements. Specifically, Chile is concerned about the TPP’s stance on copyright, patents, and intellectual property ownership. The Chilean media speculate that the TPP in its current form could mean more expensive imports of U.S. medicines.

When asked by the Washington Post about her stance on the TPP, the Chilean head of state remarked, “we don’t have much information on the process regarding the scope and limitations of the TPP…. We will protect all the agreements we already have established with the U.S.”, reflecting a diplomatically neutral answer.

Timing is not on the side of the White House as mid-term elections are set to occur this November. It would be ideal for the Obama administration to send a TPP agreement to Congress before then. In other words, President Obama will likely pressure the South American leader to support the TPP when they meet on Monday.

Finally, it will be interesting if President Bachelet discusses more sensitive issues during her time in Washington, besides U.S.-Chile relations. These include ongoing protests from the Mapuches, an indigenous group of Chile, the territorial dispute with Bolivia, or the situation in Venezuela.

Lots of praise

President Bachelet will receive a VIP treatment during her upcoming trip to Washington, including a meeting with President Obama, numerous engagements and a reception at the OAS.

Moreover, there is a positive attitude towards Chile’s current situation. For example, the Center for Strategic and International Studies explains, “Chile is one of two Latin American countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and is poised to become the first developed nation in South America.”

With this ideal momentum, President’s Bachelet trip to Washington will hopefully conclude with some positive agreement. Bolstering her country’s image is always beneficial, but it is not necessarily enough.

VOXXI: Maduro skips trip to Chile, avoids showdown with Biden

Maduro skips trip to Chile, avoids showdown with Biden
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
March 12, 2014
Originally published: http://voxxi.com/2014/03/12/biden-chile-maduro-absent/

The highly expected showdown between Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro and U.S. Vice President Joe Biden did not occur. The reason: The Venezuelan leader canceled his trip to Chile for the inauguration of President Michelle Bachelet on Tuesday, March 11.

Meanwhile, President Bachelet’s ceremony went smoothly, and she will lead her country until 2018. She certainly will have plenty of challenges at the domestic and international level, including returning Chile to regional preeminence.

Biden visits Santiago

In theory all eyes were supposed to be on President Bachelet. She is Chile’s only female head of state, and she is now a two-term president; she previously ruled from 2006 to 2010. After leaving the presidency, she had a fairly successful time as the executive director of UN Women. However, the attention was focused on what would happen if Vice President Biden and President Maduro met while in Santiago. The general consensus was that there would not be a memorable photo shoot between the two–unlike when President Barack Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro shook hands during Nelson Mandela’s funeral.

Relations between Washington and Caracas have reached a new low point in recent weeks due to theongoing protests in Venezuela. In late February Caracas expelled three diplomats from the consular services at the U.S. embassy in Venezuela. The Venezuelan government stated that the three diplomats had met with Venezuelan university students, implying that Washington supports the protesters. Washington retaliated by expelling three Venezuelan diplomats.

Moreover, at the beginning of March, the Organization of American States passed a resolution essentially supporting the Venezuelan government through this crisis. Only Panama, the U.S. and Canada voted against this resolution while all other members of the OAS (which include all Western Hemisphere nations except Cuba) voted in favor. In retaliation for siding with Washington, President Maduro broke diplomatic relations with the Central American state.
Ultimately, the Venezuelan head of state decided not to go to Santiago.

SEE ALSO: Nicolas Maduro lashes out against idea of foreign intervention

Maduro is absent from Chile

Arevalo Mendez, Venezuela’s ambassador to Chile, declared that “President Maduro is very busy, he has not left Caracas as he is dealing with internal issues.”

It is not difficult to imagine what has President Maduro so occupied these days.

It is probably better that Vice President Biden and President Maduro do not meet in order to avoid a verbal joust. Nevertheless, this is one small diplomatic victory while Washington-Caracas relations remain thorny, to put things very mildly.

Meanwhile a U.S. administration official told the Associated Press that the Vice President has discussed the “difficult situation” with other Latin American leaders in Chile. It is doubtful that Vice President Biden may get much regional support, considering the U.S. diplomatic fiasco at the OAS.

The heads of state and ministers of foreign affairs of UNASUR (a regional bloc made up of all 12 South American nations) will meet on Wednesday, March 12, in Santiago. It is expected that the situation in Venezuela will be discussed.

Remember Bachelet?

As for Bachelet herself, her inauguration enjoyed the presence of senior policymakers. Besides Biden, other VIP guests in attendance included presidents like Peru’s Ollanta Humala, Mexico’s Enrique Peña Nieto, Bolivia’s Evo Morales and Prince Felipe de Borbon, heir to the Spanish crown.

It is worth noting that Bachelet has stated that one of her foreign policy objectives is to improve Chile’s influence in Latin America.

“Chile has lost its stance in the region, its relations with its neighbors are problematic, a mercantile vision of our Latin American relations has been imposed,” the head of state has declared.

At the foreign policy level, the head of state will certainly have plenty of challenges. Most pressing is creating a unified South American response to the Venezuelan crisis. As the aforementioned UNASUR meeting will take place on Wednesday in Santiago, President Bachelet, now in command at La Moneda, will have to manage the discussions between the attending heads of state.

Additionally, in the near future President Bachelet will have to address issues like the fallout of the International Court of Justice’s ruling on a maritime dispute between Chile and Peru, as well as an ongoing border dispute with Bolivia. Moreover, if Bachelet wants Chile to recover its presence in the global stage, Santiago should give priority to its current seat at the UN Security Council .

Biden cancels visit the DR

As a corollary, Vice President Biden was scheduled to visit the Dominican Republic as the second stop in his brief Latin American tour. Nevertheless the Vice President cancelled his trip at the last minute in order to return to Washington, where he will meet with President Obama and Ukrainian interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

It seems that both President Bachelet and Vice President Biden will have a busy Wednesday ahead of them.

VOXXI: Will Michelle Bachelet address the struggle of the Mapuches?

Will Michelle Bachelet address the struggle of the Mapuches?
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
March 7, 2014
Originally published: http://voxxi.com/2014/03/07/michelle-bachelet-address-mapuches/

President-elect Michelle Bachelet –who assumes the presidency next Tuesday, March 11– should addressher campaign promise to reform the Chilean government’s treatment of the Mapuches.

This past February 28, a Chilean court sentenced a Mapuche to 18 years in prison for his role in a couple’s murder in early 2013. This decision will likely increase tensions between the government in Santiago and the country’s sizeable indigenous group.

Tensions arise

The Mapuches are an ethnic group that live mostly in Chile’s southern regions of Araucania and Bio Bio, and populate around one and a half million.

They have historically been treated as second-class citizens. The Augusto Pinochet dictatorship persecuted Mapuches who were members of the violent left-wing movement Movimiento de la Izquierda Revolucionaria.

In recent years their grievances and protests have centered on land rights and ownership. Santiago and private companies have exploited Mapuche land for natural resources without requesting permission from local communities. One such example was the construction of a hydropower dam called Ralco in Alto Bio Bio.

In late 2012- early 2013 there were a series of arson attacks in the Arauca region. On January 4, 2013, two persons, Werner Luchsinger and his wife Vivianne McKay, were killed in their home, which was set aflame by hooded individuals. The Mapuche Celestino Cordova Transito, was the only person arrested and was recently sentenced to 18 years in prison.

The prosecutor had called for life without parole but the judge opted for a much smaller sentence. The Associated Press reports that the court’s ruling was “a blow to the government of outgoing President Sebastian Pinera, which investigated the killing using an anti-terror law dating back to Gen. Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship.”

Reuters’ Alexandra Ulmer summarizes the polarized points of Mapuche communities stating, “Some Mapuche advocate violence as a means to recoup land, arguing the government is illegitimate and that their claims will never make headway in courts or the political arena. Many others in polarized Araucania want peace and argue that century-old wrongs should be put to rest.”

Governmental repression?

The outgoing Sebastian Pinera presidency has generally opted for a crackdown on Mapuche protests by resorting to the Chilean carabineros, the country’s gendarmerie.

In fact, General Ivan Bezmalinovic, chief of the carabineros in Temuco region, where a lot of Mapuches live, has requested that the government purchase armored vehicles. The high-level security officer explains that these vehicles will protect the carabineros from protesters who are using guns and incendiary bombs.

There have also been significant allegations by the Chilean government. In early January 2013, the Minister of the Presidency, Cristian Larroulet, declared that Mapuches carrying out arson attacks at the time “had links with the [Colombian narco-insurgent movement] FARC.”

The minister also argued “we are in the presence of terrorism, that kills people, that has no mercy, and in order to accomplish its goals, it burns, kills people.”

This is not the first time that there have been allegations of a linkage between the FARC and Mapuches.

In 2010, the office of the Attorney General of Colombia provided Chile with a 200-page report that explains the links, including training, between the narco-insurgents and Mapuche extremists.

This author does not have enough information to confirm or deny the links between the FARC and Mapuches. (The security news agency InSight Crime has also analyzed these allegations). While there may be some truth to them, it cannot be denied that this argument also serves as justification for the Chilean government to apply anti-terrorism laws on Mapuches, and serves as an excuse for certain repressive initiatives.

What to expect from Bachelet?

As previously mentioned, during her presidential reelection campaign, President Bachelet promised a new treatment of Chile’s Mapuche population. In October 2013 she stated, “I believe that with the Mapuche people we need a new deal [… ] I’ve said that it was an error to apply the anti-terrorism law on Mapuche communities [during her 2006-2010 presidency].”

The president-elect will once again assume control of the South American nation this upcoming March 11. U.S.vice president Joe Biden is expected to be in attendance.

She certainly will have a lot on her plate, including dealing with the fallout of a maritime border dispute with Peru, the situation in Venezuela as well as Chile’s domestic affairs.

Nevertheless, Mapuches have for too long been treated as second-class citizens in Chile, and their demands should be properly heard and addressed. This does not mean that Chile’s police and judiciary should not persecute Mapuches who have committed violent acts, but should rather lead to a “new deal,” to use Bachelet’s parlance, in the Santiago-Mapuche relationship.

Blouin Beat: World - Welcome back, President Bachelet

Welcome back, President Bachelet
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin Beat: World
December 17, 2013

Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2013/12/17/welcome-back-president-bachelet/

In an unsurprising electoral outcome, former President Michelle Bachelet (2006-2010) was elected this past Sunday, December 15, to become Chile’s next president. Bachelet was unable to secure a first round win in the mid-November elections, hence she and her closest opponent, Evelyn Matthei, were forced to a second electoral round.

If Matthei was hoping for some kind of Christmas miracle, it did not happen. By early Sunday evening, Matthei’s campaign headquarters were conceding defeat while there were reports thatcumbia, a popular Latin style of music, was blasting in Bachelet’s headquarters as her supporters celebrated the victory.  The Chilean and international media briskly reported Bachelet’s comfortable win: 62% to 37%. Not exactly a close call.

While the final results were not surprising, there is still one remarkable point from Sunday’s vote that should be noted: low voter turnout. During the November elections, which included electing a new president as well as most members of the country’s two-chamber Congress, voter turnout was just 49% of Chile’s eligible 13.5  million voters. For the second leg of the elections, that number dropped to 41%. Chile’s population is a little over 16.6 million according to a 2012 census, so only 5.5 million voting in the second round is a fairly low percentage.

Probable reasons why voter turnout was so low included the population’s dissatisfaction with the candidates, as well as the widespread assumption that Bachelet was going to win; there was little incentive to vote.

It is worth noting that former Chilean President Ricardo Lagos criticized the low turnout, and blamed Chile’s voluntary electoral system. The former president declared, “voting is a right, but it is also an obligation towards the country.” Likewise, Jose Miguel Insulza, a Chilean citizen who currently serves as the Secretary General of the Organization of American States, also argued that voluntary voting “was a mistake […] voting is a citizen’s duty.” Neither of these prominent Chileans directly stated that the Chilean government should make voting mandatory, but the sentiment is clearly implied.

It is doubtful that Bachelet will be in a particular hurry to change voting laws during her new presidential term. As discussed in a November analysis for Blouin News, the new head of state has an ambitious program which includes increasing corporate taxes, constitutional reforms to change presidential term limits and greater investment in education. However, the extent to which she will be able to accomplish these objectives is debatable; as Reuters explains, “despite losing seats in November’s Congressional elections, Alianza [the opposition coalition] still has a large enough majority to block at least electoral and constitutional changes.”

Moreover, her first foreign policy challenge will be a maritime dispute between Chile and Peru. The two countries have turned to the International Court of Justice in The Hague to get a ruling on what their maritime border should be. Depending on how the ICJ rules on the issue, a country could get a significant amount of maritime territory that could greatly help either nation’s fishing industry.  The ICJ has announced that it will release its ruling on January 27, 2014. Current President Sebastian Piñera will still be head of state then (the changing of the guard in Chile will occur in March, 2014) but it is likely that Bachelet will meet with him to discuss the ruling, particularly if the ICJ votes in Peru’s favor.

Thanks to her victory, Bachelet once again joins an elite club of female heads of state in Latin America, whose numbers are increasing. Apart from the Chilean president-elect, other female presidents in the region include Dilma Rousseff in Brazil, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in Argentina and Laura Chinchilla in Costa Rica. Leaving aside their different political ideologies, it is a positive development that more women are reaching the highest political office in their respective nations.

This is not to say that machismo, a historical stereotype of Latin Americans, is over. But the fact that there are more female presidents, and that the two principal candidates in Chile’s recent elections were women, is a sign of slow, but positive, cultural progress.

Blouin News: Politics: Bachelet’s big agenda

Bachelet's Big Agenda
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Blouin News: Politics
November 15, 2013
Originally published: http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatpolitics/2013/11/15/bachelets-big-agenda/

 Chile will hold its presidential election Sunday, November 17, and it is all but certain that former President Michelle Bachelet will emerge victorious. This anticipated and unsurprising victory comes amidst unusual (but luckily for Bachelet non-career-ending) allegations that the former president’s campaign team plagiarized part of a song by Jinja Safari, an Australian music band. (The song in question is called “Peter Pan,” which can be heard here; Bachelet’s campaign promo in question seems to be this one; a YouTube version of the campaign video has been taken down). The Australian band’s legal teams are “preparing an infringement notice,” to be sent to Bachelet’s office.

While this incident will quickly be forgotten — the website of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade highlights that Canberra and Santiago enjoy good diplomatic ties and trade between the two states reached A$1.6 billion in 2012 [a1] – it does put the former head of state in an awkward position before her expected victory.

It does not obscure, however, the numerous clues as to how she would govern domestically. The past months have involved a flurry of promises by Bachelet, including a reform of Chile’s tax system within her first 100 days and potential alterations to the Chilean constitution. Another big plank is her promise of free education for university students (who have staged major protests over the past couple of years). Known for being on the left side of the spectrum when it comes to political ideology, there is concern that Bachelet’s promises are too “radical” for some Chileans. Bachelet’s sharpest critics include current President Sebastian Piñera and elements of the Chilean entrepreneurial sector, which does not like Bachelet’s promise of higher taxes on corporations.Forbes echoed their criticism in an article wondering whether Bachelet’s re-election might have a powerful negative effect on the South American nation’s vibrant economy. (Read more: Copper and reforms to drive Chile’s economy under Bachelet).

It should be noted that there is still ongoing debate whether Bachelet will retake the presidency in the first round of voting or if a second round will be necessary (this would occur on December 15) against opposition candidate Evelyn Matthei. According to figures from polling agency CEP, Bachelet is expected to get 47-48% of the votes. Chilean analysts have recently raised the issue of a “silent vote,” which could benefit Matthei. However, the CEP poll shows that Matthei is expected to receive only 14% of the vote. Hence, Matthei would need a major upset when it comes to “silent voters” if she wants to be a credible threat to the former leader.

It should also be stressed, however, that successful initiatives by the next Chilean head of state will depend on the future makeup of the country’s two-chamber Congress: it consists of a 120-seat chamber of deputies and a 38-seat senate. All seats in the deputy chamber are up for grabs this upcoming election, as well as 20 seats of the senate. Currently, Bachelet’s Nueva Mayoría coalition counts 20 senators and 57 deputies, while Alianza (Matthei’s coalition) has 16 senators and 55 deputies. These evenly matched numbers means that Bachelet will have to win big on Sunday at the legislative level if she wants to bring about radical reforms (like upgrading the country’s constitution). It is noteworthy that, just like in the U.S., Chile’s congress has a sky-high disapproval rating. A poll carried out by GfK Adimark throughout September showed that Chile’s deputy chamber has a disapproval rating of 76%, while the senate’s disapproval rating is at a very close 73%. Which means the next Chilean congress could have a drastically different make up than the current one, another potential hurdle for Bachelet.

At the international level, the question is more vexed. Chile will be the next representative for Latin America and the Caribbean at the U.N. Security Council for the 2014-2015 period, which brings with it a whole host of potential headaches — due less to the power Chile would wield than to the politicking such a seat necessarily entails.

The regional political terrain is also fraught: Bachelet declared over the summer that the Pacific Alliance — the newest trade bloc to emerge in Latin America — should open itself to more members. Bachelet’s declarations hint that her eventual government will be in favor of this type of free-trade coalitions, so we will also likely see her supporting the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). (Sebastián Piñera, the man whose office she looks likely to assume is also apparently of this mindset: on November 4-7, Santiago hosted a round of TPP negotiations, which focused on state-owned enterprises).

A more localized point of friction, however, will be her nation’s controversial maritime border dispute with Peru. The two countries have gone to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague to get a ruling on the shape of their maritime. The ownership of roughly 38 thousand square kilometers of South Pacific waters (rich with marine life, which could be a huge asset to either country’s fishing industry) hangs in the balance, and a verdict is expected within the coming months.  So far both Santiago and Lima have declared that they will respect the ICJ’s verdict and will continue to maintain close trade relations and other “good neighbor” initiatives. Still, there is the lingering concern of what could happen should ICJ rule against Santiago and if an unfavorable ruling could hike up tensions between Lima and Santiago and, in a worst case scenario, lead to an armed conflict. Speaking on the subject, Bachelet declared in August that the dispute with Peru will be solved through international law and that Chile is a country that believes in dialogue and cooperation. As Chile’s former president and a one-time defense minister, Bachelet knows the capabilities of her nation’s armed forces and knows how to handle her country’s military, should The Hague rule in Lima’s favor, to prevent this dispute from escalating.

Barring an unexpected upset, Michelle Bachelet will be the country’s next president. There are issues that she will have to face at the international level, such as the aforementioned maritime dispute with Peru, tensions with Bolivia and Chile’s role in the UNSC. Nevertheless, her major challenges will be at the domestic level. While the country has experienced a vibrant economy over the past years, there are concerns that the “Chilean miracle” could burst sometime soon (her critics argue that this will happen under her leadership). This economic miracle has not reached all segments of the Chilean population, case in point being the protesting university students. Combine that with Bachelet’s plans for tax and constitutional reform and she will have plenty to keep her busy at home.