Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Quote: Toronto Star: Toronto Mayor Rob Ford, meet Lima Mayor Susana Villaran





Toronto Mayor Rob Ford, meet Lima Mayor Susana Villaran
W. Alex Sanchez
Toronto Star
By Oakland Ross
February 4, 2013
Originally published: http://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2013/02/04/toronto_mayor_rob_ford_meet_lima_mayor_susana_villaran.html

At first glance, it might not seem that the top municipal official in Toronto — once again firmly ensconced in the mayor’s chair — would have much in common with his counterpart in Peru’s largest city.
Susana Villaran is a leftist — albeit a moderate leftist — while Ford occupies an ideological landscape located more, shall we say, to the right.
The mayor of Lima also makes a habit of attending her city’s annual gay-pride parade. Ford, of course, is a perennial no-show at the Toronto version of the same event.
So is there anything that unites these two very different politicians?As it happens, quite a lot.
It turns out that Ford and his Peruvian opposite are each midway through an initial four-year term as mayor, and both are — or were — in serious peril of not surviving much beyond that.
In Ford’s case, the mayor appears to have survived one legal challenge only to stumble into another, this one concerning campaign financing. It seems unlikely, although still possible, that he will be evicted from office as a result.
By contrast, Villaran’s hold on her city’s mayoralty still hangs in the balance.
“No ha hecho nada,” her opponents insist, an unofficial slogan that is now repeated over and over again, on radio, TV and in the streets.
“She hasn’t done anything.”
In apparent retribution for this purported failure, Villaran now faces a recall vote scheduled for March 17.
“From the polls, it seems she might lose,” says Alex Sanchez, a research fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, a Washington-based think tank. “It’s like 50-50 at the moment. It doesn’t look good.”
In fact, it looks pretty grim. A public-opinion poll conducted early last month found that 65 per cent of Lima’s voters want the mayor removed from office.
Just 29 per cent said she should stay.
Some observers consider these sentiments to be more than a little perverse.
In the first place, they say, Villaran has not been a bad mayor — not a great one, perhaps, but far from the disaster her foes proclaim.
“There have been complaints that the mayor’s office has not been as effective as it could have been, but it’s attacking crucial issues,” says Coletta Youngers, a Peru expert and consultant at the Washington Office on Latin America. “It’s probably the cleanest mayoralty Lima has ever had.”
A former school teacher and journalist, Villaran has no experience running a large organization, but she has been willing to take on some formidable adversaries during her time in power.
These include the huge armies of feuding, smoke-belching private minibuses that clog Lima’s boulevards by day and night, in direct competition with a new and far more orderly mass-transit system known as La Metropolitana, a network of articulated buses running along dedicated lanes.
“She’s trying to organize La Metropolitana,” says Sanchez. “We have to have a better system of transportation.”
But the mayor’s most traumatic — and violent — confrontation occurred last October, when she sent in the police to uproot the city’s wholesale food traders from a 50-year-old market called La Parada, a dirty, dilapidated bazaar that has long been riddled with vermin and crime.
Riots ensued — possibly triggered by paid provocateurs — and the operation quickly descended into pitched battles, looting and bloodshed. By the time the disturbances ended, four people were dead and more than 100 injured, including nearly 70 police.
But it worked. The traders were finally relocated at a modern wholesale market called Santa Anita that had been built to replace the old, obsolete site — a feat that none of the mayor’s predecessors had dared to attempt.
“That was Villaran trying to do something right,” says Sanchez. “She’s had these kinds of initiatives.”
So why do people want her to go?
“It’s pretty much ignorance,” says one Lima resident. “People can be pretty easily bought.”
Just ask Marco Tulio Gutierrez, who describes himself as an ordinary bloke but who nonetheless spearheaded a campaign to amass 400,000 signatures, all calling for Villaran’s removal — the minimum required to set the recall process in motion.
According to one published report, that effort depended on the labour of hundreds of canvassers and wound up costing 2 million Peruvian soles, or about $800,000.
Passed in 1994, Peru’s municipal recall law was intended for use in cases of extreme corruption or criminal malfeasance by elected officials. Not even Villaran’s bitterest enemies say she’s guilty of anything of the sort — just the opposite, in fact.
So why all this uproar about a 63-year-old woman who seems to be making a reasonable fist of a difficult job?
“There’s a general consensus amongst objective analysts that there are dark political forces at work here,” says Youngers.
Like many other observers, she looks at Lima’s ongoing political convulsions and detects the invisible hand of one Luis Castaneda, whose nickname is “The Mute” — he doesn’t say much — an old-school politician who ran the city as its mayor from 2003 until Villaran replaced him at the beginning of 2011.
Castaneda might be motivated by sheer spite or, as some suggest, he could be seeking a return to public office, in order to gain immunity from prosecution relating to some extremely generous public-works contracts he authorized while in power.
“Everything indicates that the people behind the recall are close to the former mayor,” says Youngers. “There are serious allegations of corruption under his government.”
That’s politics, Peruvian-style, and it’s proving to be as much a distraction for Susana Villaran as its Canadian equivalent has been for Rob Ford — another burden they have in common.
Maybe they should talk.

Sunday, February 3, 2013

BLOUIN: Latin America’s prison problem



Latin America's Prison System Problem
W. Alex Sanchez
Blouin Beat: Politics
February 2, 2013
Originally published http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatpolitics/2013/02/02/latin-americas-prison-problem/


A recent riot in a Venezuelan prison left approximately 60 inmates dead and around 120 injured – and some in the international community calling for investigations. According to what has been established by reports, the violence erupted when prisoners attacked National Guard officers inspecting the Uribana prison. Sadly, this was only the latest episode an ongoing trend of recent incidents in prisons, in Venezuela and other Latin American states. These recurrences stress that in spite of the Latin American economic boom, the region’s prison systems are still dysfunctional.
Prior to the events in Uribana, there were (also in Venezuela) riots in the Yare I prison, in which 25 prisoners were killed. In February 2012, a fire broke out in the Comayagua prison in Honduras, killing around 350 inmates – a direct result of the overcrowded state of the prison; it had been built for a maximum of 400 prisoners, but housed around 800. In September, 129 inmates escaped through a tunnel from a Mexican prison close to the U.S. border. A similar situation occurred in December in Peru, when 27 underage criminals escaped from “Maranguita,” a youth detention center in Lima. (One of them, known as “Gringasho,” is a young hitman serving a six-year sentence for the murder of two people.)
Latin America’s recent and significant economic growth has not, it seems, eased this dysfunction at all. Problems in prison systems are an issue of special concern in Peru, Honduras, El Salvador, Colombia, Mexico and Brazil: all have have significant internal security issues such as gangs, cartels or terrorist movements. These criminals can make up the majority of the penal population and become powerful enough to essentially run a prison to their liking, like those facilities in El Salvador controlled by Mara gangs, which boast widescreen TVs with cable access. Or consider the Primeiro Comando da Capital (First Command of the Capital), a major prison gang that originated within Brazilian prisons: in 2006, major riots broke out in 18 prisons across the Brazilian state of Sao Paulo because the government attempted to move PCC leaders to other jails.  Not exactly surprising. PCC leaders are highly organized and in constant touch with their subordinates on the outside. (In one reported incident, a conference call between PCC members lasted 10 hours.)
The Uribana riot was tragic, but its tragedy is not isolated. Regional governments spend significant parts of their defense budgets on internal security (the Peruvian government spent over $250 million equipping their police force in 2012) but cannot seem to master either the process of rehabilitation or even simply trimming the power of these criminal movements. The guilty are sent to prisons which offer multiple opportunities to escape, to operate their enteprises more or less unmolested, or to suffer and die in riots and fires. Despite this,  prison reform – needed in all areas of the penal system from infrastructure to security staffing to prisoner quality of life — is not a priority for any government. And it’s not just prisoners who are rebelling: In Argentina the security staff of prisons in Buenos Aires protested in October, demanding wage hikes; as did the general prison staffers of the Lambayeque region in Peru in November (the tactic worked in Argentina but failed in Peru). The verdict? Prison dysfunction isn’t going away anytime soon.

Thursday, January 31, 2013

VOXXI: The EU-CELAC Summit and the future of hemispheric integration


The EU-CELAC Summit and the Future of Hemispheric Integration
W. Alejandro Sanchez
VOXXI
January 30, 2013
Originally published: http://www.voxxi.com/eu-celac-summit-hemispheric-integration/

Around 40 heads of state and 60 diplomatic delegations from countries of the European Union (EU), and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), met during the weekend of January 26 in Santiago, Chile. The EU-CELAC summit focused on increasing trade ties between the two blocs while promoting sustainable development and protecting the environment.
Whereas the future of European economies remains uncertain due to the enormous amount of ongoing problems with several of its member countries, the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean continue to boom. However, not everything is perfect among CELAC members and the real underlying question is not the future of EU-CELAC relations but whether CELAC will be able to maintain unity between the new organization’s over 30 members during the coming years.

Europe needed a ‘win’

The EU-CELAC summit took place amidst that fog of the current global financial storm that has hit the EU particularly hard. EU countries like Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal have come very close to economic collapse on several occasion over the past few years, and their continued near insolvency and austere fiscal reforms have sparked several major protests, particularly in Greece.
In addition, Prime Minister David Cameron has announced his intent to hold a referendum regarding British membership in the EU by 2018 at the latest. What more, Scotland will hold a referendum regarding a possible Scottish independence from the UK in 2014. These challenges mean that the EU and its members will likely face many dramatic challenges in the near future.
Conversely, Latin America and the Caribbean have been enjoying an economic boom over the last decade, where countries like Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru have become economic powerhouses. As a result of economic growth, vast natural resources and a growing productive workforce, CELAC has increasingly attracted trade and investments from the international community. For example, the U.S. is looking to create an ambitious intercontinental free trade area, the Trans Pacific Partnership, which would include Australia, Singapore as well as Latin American nations like Mexico, Chile and Peru. In addition,Latin American trade with China has continued to grow. Finally, Latin America has also approached Middle Eastern markets, as exemplified by the Third summit between the Arab World and South America held in Peru. In light of recent positive regional economic developments in the Western Hemisphere, it was no surprise that Europe strove to portray itself as an attractive trade partner in Santiago.

EU-CELAC Summit: What keeps it together?

The ideological basis for CELAC is a desire for both greater regional integration and further independence from Washington’s hegemony in the region. However, it is debatable whether the new organization will remain united in the coming years due to the differences between its members in terms of national interests and objectives. Moreover, it is noteworthy to mention that Cuba has become the head role of CELAC’s rotating leadership. This sends a clear message to Washington that the rest of the Americas want Havana to be more integrated into the inter-American system.
It will be interesting to see how the White House will behave towards the region during Obama’s second presidential term. The new administration has already received multilateral diplomatic pressure during the 2012 Summit of the Americas in Colombia from several states who wanted Cuba to attend, contrary to the wishes of Washington. The next summit is scheduled to be held in Panama in 2015. It is expected that similar pressure on Washington to allow for Havana’s presence in such regional forums will only increase in the coming years.
Nevertheless, while Cuba is an issue that is commonly raised whenever there are talks about hemispheric integration, it is not a critical issue for nations that may have other, more immediate diplomatic concerns and which may prove to be more divisive among CELAC states. Some of the more consequential issues which have affected the region in recent years include: The border dispute between Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as Colombia’s discomfort stemming from a ruling by the International Court of Justice over a maritime border dispute with Nicaragua. In addition, Bolivia continues to demand a territorial corridor linking it to the sea that would transverse Chile; Bolivian President Evo Morales has declared that he wants his country to have sea access by 2025.
Even the EU-CELAC summit sparked controversy as Paraguay did not attend the high level meeting. (The Chilean government said Asuncion chose not to attend while the Paraguayans said they were not invited). Paraguay has been isolated from regional groups like UNASUR and MERCOSUR since former President Fernando Lugo was controversially removed from office last June 2012. Besides the Paraguay issue, the EU-CELAC summit also demonstrated the divide among some CELAC nations regarding commerce, as countries like Peru, Mexico and Chile were aiming to receive more investments from Europe. Meanwhile, ALBA nations like Venezuela protested the addition of paragraphs in the summit’s final declaration that called for the “legal certainty” of European investments. In other words, CELAC’s most foreboding challenge in the coming years will be to maintain unity among its members.
The upcoming March referendum on the Falklands/Malvinas islands will be a test to see if CELAC members can remain as a cohesive unit around an issue that isn’t based in anti-U.S. sentiments. It will be critical for Argentina to gain the support of CELAC in its protest of the referendum, as Buenos Aires contests the control of the islands with London.
The EU-CELAC summit culminated with the predictable resolutions and agreements to improve cooperation between both regions, particularly regarding trade. CELAC has arguably emerged as the next great economic powerhouse, but the key to its diplomatic weight will be the extent to which the group can remain as a single bloc in its dealings with the rest of the world. While at first glance CELAC may appear united, the truth is that there may not be much “glue” to hold this massive new multinational agency together in the long run.


Monday, January 28, 2013

E-IR: Game of Thrones and State Behavior


Game of Thrones and State Behavior
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez
e-International Relations
January 28, 2013
Originally published: http://www.e-ir.info/2013/01/28/game-of-thrones-and-state-behavior/


 Warning: This analysis may contain spoilers for people who haven’t read the books that make up A Song of Ice and Fire

A Song of Ice and Fire, a series of books set in a fictional world crafted by George R.R. Martin has become very popular after its adaptation as a HBO TV series entitled Game of Thrones (GoT). The books have become appealing to international relations (IR) scholars as they touch on theoretical concepts like realism and idealism, as well as issues like the success (or lack thereof) of autocratic governments and the role of women in politics in different societies. In this commentary, we will dig a little deeper, focusing on the alliance system integral not only to Martin’s fictional world but also to real-world state behavior.